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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    More sinking:
    "According to Barron’s calculations, if Trump Media’s share price falls below $13 a share, Trump’s paper gains since his company’s merger with the special purpose acquisition company Digital World Acquisition Corp. rapidly vanish. That’s because as the share price declines, the value of Trump’s 114,750,000 shares also drops. A share price of $12.88 would send the value of his shares below the $1.478 billion private valuation of his stake in Trump Media as of Dec. 15, 2023.
    As of Thursday’s close, Trump’s stake was valued around $1.8 billion, down from more than $5.7 billion on March 26, when the merger took place."
    Barrons Article today.
    With apologies because I cannot find a non-paywalled link.
  • individual LT capital gains tax and corporate income tax rates
    "The corporate tax rate changes introduced by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) have different expiration dates:
    Main corporate tax rate:
    The TCJA lowered the main corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. This change is permanent and does not have a set expiration date. It will remain in effect unless new legislation is passed to change it.
    Full expensing of capital investments:
    The TCJA allowed for 100% bonus depreciation (full and immediate expensing) of certain capital investments. This provision began phasing out in 2023 and is set to fully expire after 2026, unless extended by new legislation.
    Interest expense limitations:
    The TCJA introduced new limitations on the deductibility of business interest expenses. These rules are permanent, but some specific provisions have different phase-in periods.
    International tax provisions:
    Many of the international tax provisions introduced by the TCJA, such as the Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) rules, are permanent.
    It's important to note that while the main corporate tax rate change is permanent, many other business-related provisions of the TCJA are set to expire or change after 2025.
    As always with tax law, there's the possibility of new legislation being introduced that could alter these expiration dates or make other changes to the corporate tax structure."
    [Bold Added]
    The above commentary is from Claude and is consistent with my recollection of the current tax laws and as such at this time I am good with my first question.
  • individual LT capital gains tax and corporate income tax rates
    @yogibearbull,
    "2017 TCJA is good until 12/31/25. That means that not much will change for individual or corporate tax rates for the tax filing years 2025 and 2026. But things would change after 2 tax filing years."
    Congress can change existing laws, notwithstanding the effective date of the those laws.
    Below are some answers from Claude -
    "The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 did not significantly change the individual long-term capital gains tax rates. Here's an overview of what remained the same and what minor adjustments were made:
    Basic rate structure:
    The TCJA maintained the same three-tier rate structure for long-term capital gains that existed before the law:
    0%
    15%
    20%
    Income thresholds:
    The income thresholds at which these rates apply were kept, but they are now indexed to inflation using a different measure (chained CPI) which generally results in slower increases over time.
    Additional Net Investment Income Tax:
    The TCJA did not change the additional 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax that applies to individuals with income above certain thresholds.
    Collectibles and certain small business stock:
    The 28% maximum rate on long-term capital gains from collectibles and certain small business stock was maintained.
    Unrecaptured Section 1250 gain:
    The 25% maximum rate on unrecaptured Section 1250 gain (related to depreciation on real estate) was also kept in place.
    Holding period:
    The one-year holding period to qualify for long-term capital gains treatment remained unchanged.
    While the TCJA made significant changes to many areas of the tax code, the treatment of individual long-term capital gains remained largely the same. The most notable impact on capital gains taxation was indirect, through changes to ordinary income tax rates and brackets, which can affect the overall tax situation of investors."
  • Election Betting Coming at Your Broker
    A federal Judge ruled against CFTC saying that election betting is neither gambling nor illegal activity - because elections are neither.
    Interactive Brokers/IBKR is ready to go on Monday, 9/16/24. Who else?
    Edit/Add. Source cited is WSJ behind the paywall. X/Twitter LINK.
    https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-judge-allows-election-betting-dealing-blow-to-markets-regulator-3614495
    https://www.forexlive.com/news/interactive-brokers-will-launch-us-election-betting-next-week-20240912/
  • individual LT capital gains tax and corporate income tax rates
    2017 TCJA is good until 12/31/25. That means that not much will change for individual or corporate tax rates for the tax filing years 2025 and 2026. But things would change after 2 tax filing years.
  • individual LT capital gains tax and corporate income tax rates
    Assuming there is a grid lock in the new Congress next year (House controlled by Democrats and Senate controlled by Republicans), from what I understand the subject tax rates should remain unchanged in 2025 as well. Is my understanding correct?
    On the off chance, Democrats continue to hold the Senate majority (assume razor thin majority) (and assume Democrats return to controlling the House), how do you anticipate the subject tax rates to change?
    Edit: Added "LT" in the title to eliminate needless discussion about LT vs ST
    Thanks
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Hi guys,
    Opened a new position in Man U yesterday at $15.50. So will see how it goes.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • Comparing APYs
    APY - annual percentage yield - the percentage increase in an investment value including reinvestments after holding one year.
    This is a standard figure that is supposed to make comparing products easy.
    It is simple enough for bank accounts. They calculate it for you based on the rate (APR) and frequency of compounding (daily, monthly). But it is not so simple for MMFs or T-bills. Rather than calculate compounded yield over a year as a bank does, the figures you see with MMFs and T-bills use simple interest to annualize.
    The MMF 7 day SEC yield is just a daily yield multiplied by 365 (or 366), i.e. simple interest.
    For a MMF, to get the effective annual yield (APY), the formula is:
    APY = (1 + 7 day SEC yield/365) ^ 365 - 1 (use 366 as needed)
    Fidelity shows the effective yields for its MMFs on the funds' "performance and risk" page.
    The annualized yield quoted for a T-bill is just the total return of the T-bill to maturity multiplied out to a year (simple interest). For example, with an 8 week T-bill (56 days), the total return of the T-bill is multiplied out by 365/56.
    To compound interest, we reinvest the T-bill (including interest) at maturity, repeating until we've covered a whole year. That might result in a fractional number of reinvestments. For example, an 8 week (56 day) T-bill would get invested a total of 365/56 times, or roughly 6.5 times. No matter, the formula handles this.
    T-bill total return = ($100 - purchase price)/ purchase price
    APY = ((1 + T-bill total return)/T-bill days) ^ (365/T-bill days) - 1
    Consider this 8 week (56 day) T-bill. Purchase price was $99.216.
    T-bill rate = ($100 - $99.216)/ $99.216 = 0.7901951%
    APY = (1 + 0.7901951) ^ (365/56) - 1 = 5.264%
    The stated annualized yield (using simple interest) is 5.150378%.
    A bank account with an APY of 5.0% looks better than SPAXX (current 7 day yield 4.94%), but SPAXX returns more (5.06%) with compounding. Similarly, between a T-bill and a bank account with the same rate, the T-bill is better. Its quoted rate doesn't include the effect of compounding.
  • Tax-Loss Harvesting (TLH), 2024
    Tax-Loss Harvesting (TLH), 2024
    It’s never too late to plan for TLH. But some critical dates are approaching.
    Funds are allowed to close their books for the year in OCTOBER so that they can timely announce yearend distributions in November/December for fund investors to plan. But some funds still follow the old practice of closing the books in December, but then their distributions may be in the next year (2025) with taxes due in the current year (2024).
    Retail investors often wait until DECEMBER for TLH. The market has regular hours on the last day of trading & that is Tuesday, 12/31/24.
    The last day to DOUBLE-UP & sell the older lot by the yearend is Friday, 11/29/24 (early market close at 1 PM ET) in order to avoid wash-sale. With commission-free trading, this practice is less popular now. It is easily possible to sell & simultaneously buy something SIMILAR BUT NOT IDENTICAL.
    With TLH spread out in October & December, the related JANUARY EFFECT (in 2025) for losing stocks in 2024 will also be weak.
  • Question about trading (round trip) restrictions on Fidelity funds …
    Robert Frost might be impressed to know his simple 20-line poem has prompted someone to write a 1000 + word explanation. This poem’s never been a favorite of mine. But I hold his longer “The Death of the Hired Man" in high regard. With all due respect to Frost, I think Poe was the better poet.
    “And the stars never rise, but I feel the bright eyes Of the beautiful Annabel Lee …”
    image
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    Yahoo Finance is showing DJT short interest as 8.44% of the float, 5.12% of the total shares. That is high but not record-breaking.
    This Yahoo Finance Statistics page also has related fundamental details.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/key-statistics/
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    I read an article recently about a man who lost a substantial portion of his retirement savings by investing in DJT — more than $500,000. The article wasn’t political, more of a business article about the dangers of investing with your emotions and lack of diversification. Sorry, I didn’t copy the link.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/11/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/11/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (39.8%, above average) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (29.3%, below average); bearish became the middle sentiment (31.0%, average); Bull-Bear Spread was +8.0% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (133+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (48+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks mixed (growth up, cyclicals down), bonds up, oil down, gold up, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 54.30% (positive). CPI +2.5%, core +3.2%; (wholesale) PPI today at 8:30 AM ET. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    Edit/Add. PPI +1.7%, core +3.3%.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1650/thread
  • TSP Mutual fund window
    What are the fees? Brokerage windows within workplace plans aren't cheap and that may be by design to discourage overuse by the uninitiated.
    https://www.tsp.gov/mutual-fund-window/
    "Fees you’ll pay
    $55 annual administrative fee to ensure that use of the mutual fund window does not indirectly increase TSP administrative expenses for TSP participants who choose not to use the mutual fund window
    $95 annual maintenance fee
    $28.75 per-trade fee
    Other fees and expenses specific to the mutual funds you choose, which you can review in each fund’s prospectus"
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    I have never come across a stock whose options are more expensive than that of DJT. The Nov 15 calls with $17.5 strike are trading nearly at $6. (Of course, the Jan 2026 calls with the same strike is only at $8.) By comparison, NVDA options are cheap.
    Any way, if you are a lottery buyer, you might be able to buy more lottery with a DJT option play than with its stock.
    Good luck.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    Down 12.5% today to $16 + change.
    It now appears debate is more than a purely academic exercise!
  • STSEX Fund
    The fund status is closed to all investors (see prospectus). Only div reinvestments are permitted.
    This fund was formerly a State Street Research fund (not to be confused with SSgA). FWIW, there is a sibling fund, formerly SRLAX, now MDFGX. It was created and managed in the late 90s by STSEX's manager at the time, Pete Woodworth.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-cap-stocks-state-street-manager-looks-for-return-on-capital-1-25-99
    The two funds appear to have continued using the same managers, as M* reports nearly identical teams (including changes) over the past decade. Until 2017 MDFGX's performance was virtually identical to STSEX's. Since then, STSEX has gone on wild rides (both up and down) but otherwise followed a similar trajectory. I'd guess that its huge (excessive?) bets on single stocks accounts for that.
    Both funds are extremely concentrated. However, while 1/3 of STSEX is invested in Microsoft, "only" 10.37% of MDFGX is. The latter fund is not quite as concentrated, and actually turns over stocks once in awhile (21% turnover ratio).
    If what you're looking for is a large cap 0% turnover fund, there's LEXCX. It's even more concentrated than STSEX, and like that fund, has BRK.B as its second largest holding (15.68%).
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    Per Barrons this post-debate morning....
    Shares in the Truth Social parent company, which trade under the ticker DJT, were down over 17% to $15.43 in the Wednesday premarket–its lowest price since the merger with the shell company Digital World Acquisition Corp.