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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Closing Bell: S&P 500 Climbs To Record As Europe, China Fuel Optimism
    FYI: U.S. stock benchmarks climbed to records, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index a fifth weekly gain, as optimism in the global economy grew after central banks in China and Europe signaled additional stimulus measures.
    The S&P 500 rose 0.5 percent to 2,063.34 at 4 p.m. in New York, paring an earlier rally of 0.9 percent. The index advanced 1.1 percent this week, pushing its gains in 2014 to 12 percent. The S&P 500 is now only 62 points away from being up 15% closing 2014 at 2,125 just what MFO's Ted predicted back in February.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-21/u-s-index-futures-rise-as-s-p-500-heads-for-fifth-weekly-gain.html
    Markets At A Glance: http://markets.wsj.com/us
  • Avoiding the Recency Bias in Foreign Stock Markets (LIP)
    The S&P 500 vs. the EAFE over time:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/tumblr/blog-avoiding-the-recency-bias-in-foreign-stock-markets-134430904.html
    P.S. Imho, quite a few of the new-ish Yahoo Finance Blog posts look to be worth reading.
  • Sell Before/After Distribution?
    I know this will open the apples & oranges benchmarking can of worms, but I got my info from the WSJ Quarterly Mutual Fund tables which are created by Lipper. The 3 funds had C and D ratings over the last 3 years. If there are better performance comparisons I will gladly look at them. Thanks.
    Why not use the Lipper ratings directly instead of using the munging that WSJ contracted Lipper to do?
    Three year ratings for VDIGX are 4/4/5/5/5 (Total return/consistent/preservation/tax/expense)
  • Sell Before/After Distribution?
    I know this will open the apples & oranges benchmarking can of worms, but I got my info from the WSJ Quarterly Mutual Fund tables which are created by Lipper. The 3 funds had C and D ratings over the last 3 years. If there are better performance comparisons I will gladly look at them. Thanks.
    Not to sound like a broken record, but it depends what you want the funds to do in your portfolio and what your risk tolerance is.
    Both of the dividend funds are indexed to the NASDAQ Dividend Acheivers Index. I think they're both outperforming that, but that index isn't going to keep up with the bull market we've had. If you go back and compare to the S&P they are going to look mediocre over the last 1, 3, and 5 years.
    FSIVX's problem is that it's an index in markets that are lagging. That's when indices look bad. It will lead the way when developed markets come back. Bill Bernstein had some name for the phenomenon which I can't remember.
    To your original question, concur with msf and Jerry above. If these are in a taxable account, sell before distribution to avoid cost basis problems. If qualified, doesn't matter one bit.
  • M* Top Fund Picks For The Risk-Averse
    FYI: To get a handle on funds' downside risks, you need to step into the wayback machine.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=674501
  • George Invests $500,000,000 With Bill
    Is there any doubt?
    that:"We're all Keynesians (Krugmans)now."The last two paragraphs from a Bill Gross perspective posted today @ Seeking Alpha
    "But now at 500% to 600% of GDP (shadow debt included), it’s a Sisyphean struggle just to stay above water. Inflation, in other words – or in simple math – is required to pay for prior inflation. Deflation is no longer acceptable.
    Such is the dilemma facing central bankers (and supposedly fiscal authorities) in 2014 and beyond: How to create inflation. They’ve made a damn fine attempt at it – have they not? Four trillion dollars in the U.S., two trillion U.S. dollar equivalents in Japan, and a trillion U.S. dollars coming from the ECB’s Draghi in the eurozone. Not working like it used to, the trillions seem to seep through the sandy loam of investment and innovation straight into the cement mixer of the marketplace. Prices go up, but not the right prices. Alibaba’s stock goes from $68 on opening day to $92 in the first minute, but wages simply sit there for years on end. One economy (the financial one) thrives while the other economy (the real one) withers.
    Perhaps sooner rather than later, investors must recognize that modern day inflation, while a necessary condition for survival, is not a sufficient condition for increasing wealth at a rate necessary to satisfy future liabilities associated with education, health care, and a satisfactory retirement. The real economy needs money printing, yes, but money spending more so, and that must come from the fiscal side – from the dreaded government side – where deficits are anathema and balanced budgets are increasingly in vogue. Until then, Grant’s deflation remains a growing possibility – not the kind that creates prosperity but the kind that’s the trouble for prosperity."
    -William H. Gross
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2699545-the-trouble-with-porosity-and-prosperity
  • Early Evening Art Cashin: Cheap Gas Boost to Christmas? Cashin Not So Sure
    NOVEMBER 20 2014
    Rising equities and falling prices at the pump will bring holiday cheer, but be aware of potential headwinds as we head into 2015.
    Global CIO Commentary by Scott Minerd ( Guggenheim)
    "Even if gasoline prices remain unchanged for the rest of the year, we project real discretionary consumption should rise by the most since the beginning of 2011, helping to spur GDP growth.
    The short-term trajectory of oil prices will depend on a number of factors, including the growth outlook for Europe and Asia, as well as the global supply/demand dynamic. Despite the recent decline in market prices, producers in the Middle East have not yet cut back on production. With fracking having fundamentally increased output in the United States, I suspect that oil is at least ten dollars a barrel away from any kind of price support."
    http://guggenheimpartners.com/perspectives/macroview/falling-gas-prices-fuel-holiday-cheer
  • Morningstar's Portfolio Manager Price Updating Concern ...
    Well, today at 5:35pm PST both Google and M* are in agreement with the day's results. Who knows what tomorrow will bring, but at least we're heading in the right direction.
  • Experts Say Stocks Are Going To Crash—So What Are You Going To Do About It?
    Formula:
    1.) Sign up for multiple domain names.
    2.) Ditto multiple aliases
    3.) Quickly, quickly write official-sounding predictions, preferably citing multiple sources (including many at random, since few will actually read the sources) containing all kinds of predictions of immediate debacle.
    4.) If you want to actually invest the time, look for a few really bad predictions to quote from well-known dire predicters.
    5.) Couch your own prediction of immediate catastrophy in the most dire-but-official-sounding terms.
    6.) Publish as widely as possible. (May take time since many will dismiss you as a quack, but find some who will prefer to fan your flame.)
    7.) Pour a drink & enjoy.
  • The Top Performing And Yielding Dividend Funds
    Article missed that PRBLX handily beat all of those funds over that time period (9.64% annual return) with much less volatility (SD = 12.93, Beta to S&P = .78, all of the others averaged around 15-16 and .9, except FRDPX, which came in at 12.98 and .73, but returned 8.47% p/y)
  • Experts Say Stocks Are Going To Crash—So What Are You Going To Do About It?
    I don't believe we're going to have a crash. Another minor correction, or some consolidation wouldn't surprise me. The US economy is better than most others now and I think if we saw the market down 10% there'd be lots of buying interest. I don't even think we'll see a 10% correction but I'm confident we're not going to see a 50% crash.
  • Experts Say Stocks Are Going To Crash—So What Are You Going To Do About It?
    FYI: Last week, my friend Simon emailed me in a panic. “I just read that stocks are going to crash,” he wrote. “Should I trade my stocks for bonds or cash?” He linked to a November 6, 2014 article in MoneyNews, Warning: Stocks Will Collapse By 50 Percent. Even the hearts of stoic investors skip a few beats when reading such headlines. Why wouldn’t they? Nobody wants to lose money. And watchful experts have stethoscopes on the heart of the economy. If they’re predicting a market crash, we should listen, right?
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://assetbuilder.com/andrew_hallam/experts_say_stocks_are_going_to_crash—so_what_are_you_going_to_do_about_it
  • The Top Performing And Yielding Dividend Funds
    @Scott: FYI:
    Regards,
    Ted
    HHCAX 5yr. return 12.78%
    Average Healthcare Fund 5yr. return 22%
  • The Top Performing And Yielding Dividend Funds
    Best- and worst-performing alternatives funds
    Ranked by one-year total returns
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20141116/CHART02/141119924
    Largest alternatives funds
    Ranked by net assets
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20141116/CHART02/141119925
    Off-Topic
    FOREIGN POLICY UNVEILS SIXTH ANNUAL
    “100 LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS” ISSUE
    Krugman not on list, Thomas Piketty is.A two to three paragraph synopsis of people who have impacted 2014 to date.
    November 17, 2014 — WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, Foreign Policy released its sixth annual “100 Leading Global Thinkers” issue, recognizing a year of tumult, protest, inspiration, and new beginnings.
    “Each year our list of leading Global Thinkers spotlights those who have translated their ideas into actions, impacting millions worldwide,” said David Rothkopf, Editor and CEO of The FP Group. “It is a chance to reflect on who and what is driving change today and who will shape it tomorrow.”
    The issue, and the Global Thinkers, will be honored at a dinner celebration in Washington on the evening of the 17th. Between 40 and 50 of the honorees, coming in from all parts of the world, will participate in a Town Hall discussion at The Four Seasons Hotel. Earlier, they will also join panel discussions as part of "Transformational Trends: A Year of Disruptive Thinking", an innovative policy conference, now in its 3rd year, jointly sponsored by FP and the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff. Secretary of State John Kerry is the keynote speaker of the conference.
    This year’s issue focuses on the events that disrupted the global order – for better or for worse. In a year when Russia annexed Crimea and the Islamic State redefined the very nature of terrorism, a group of Indian scientists and engineers also showed the world how to send a spacecraft to Mars on a budget, and a Japanese naturalist demonstrated how trees could be used to mitigate the worst consequences of climate change. In this issue, Foreign Policy celebrates those who have meaningfully contributed to improving our global community, and acknowledge the impact of those who have disrupted it.
    This year’s diverse group of Global Thinker honorees are organized into ten categories:
    The “Decision Makers” includes India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, and Mexico’s Secretary of Finance, Luis Videgaray; the “Challengers,” who have defied the norm and reshuffled the deck, include journalist Kara Swisher, and Joshua Wong, the student leader of the Hong Kong protests; among the “Naturals” is Ruth Buendia, the Peruvian activist; “The Innovators” includes Harvard engineer Jennifer Lewis and microbiologist Janet Iwasa; and “The Advocates,” those who risk everything to fight for what they believe in, include civic activist Hanna Hopko.
    “The Chroniclers,” are the masters of storytelling, among them political television personality John Oliver; there are “The Healers,” such as Drs. Kevin Whaley and Larry Zeitlin who created ZMapp, a major breakthrough for Ebola treatment; “The Artists” includes sculptor and artist Kara Walker; “The Moguls,” including Jack Ma of Alibaba Group, are a collection of individuals always looking for “the next big thing”; and finally there are “The Agitators”, among them terrorist leaders, ideologues, and wily financiers, including the Islamic State’s Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. When its history is written, 2014 will be remembered as a year when remarkable individuals changed the world as we know it.
    From the Editor’s Letter: "Take our cover image, a Molotov cocktail in mid-explosion. It’s a metaphor for violence, certainly, but also one for defiance, for resistance, for unleashing the startlingly new. The image, like the majority of Global Thinkers on our list, is a reminder that change can start at any second: change that is destructive, beautiful, inspirational – sometimes all at once."
    Also in the latest issue, journalist and author George Packer writes about today’s “Agitators”, from the annexation of Crimea to the rise of ISIS; Gillian Tett, award- winning journalist from the Financial Times discusses the public’s enthrallment with Thomas Piketty; and environmentalist Bill McKibben writes an essay on the climate change crisis in 2014.
    VISIT THE INTERACTIVE SITE FOR FP’S LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS OF 2014 HERE
    http://globalthinkers.foreignpolicy.com
  • A bit of what I call a broad vacuum (sucks) market day, eh??? 1 fund & 1 stock up for this house....
    The new economy revisited?(Broad spectrum not broad vacuum?) Info highway/clean efficient transportation vs capital intensive mining and oil e&p.
    Assorted news stories from early week. PVSAX Putnam Capital Spectrum Fund Class A +0.58(+1.48%) and PYSAX Putnam Equity Spectrum Fund Class A +0.58(+1.32%) both have a large stake in DISH that gave them a nice gain today.They both trail SPY Y T D but both have strong 5 year returns.
    Another wild-card bidder is Dish Network. There has been speculation that Dish Chairman Charlie Ergen wants to drive bidding prices up to help increase the value of the nearby airwaves licenses that Dish owns
    Nov 19, 6:40PM EST
    DISH 74.66 +6.81 (+10.04%)
    Statoil (NYSE:STO) says it will suspend operations of two offshore drilling rigs for at least the rest of the year, with no plans for redeployment, citing overcapacity.
    Transocean slides as fleet update shows more rigs idled
    http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RIG
    Closing the mine is not CLF's first choice, but an attempt to find partners to share the cost of expansion appears to have failed, and selling a mine that needs $1.2B in capital is a doubtful prospect; even Teck Resources (NYSE:TCK), long interested in breaking into the iron ore business, isn't biting.If a sale process fails, a closure of Bloom Lake would close the books one of the worst acquisitions in the history of Canadian mining.
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2138385-cliffs-massive-closure-costs-for-bloom-lake-stuns-investors
    Bidding in the FCC's AWS-3 spectrum auction have reached $24.1B barely 24 hours after topping $14B. Through 15 rounds, $1.19B alone was bid on a 10x10 MHz. license for the NYC area.
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2138395-spectrum-bids-top-24b-at-and-t-verizon-seen-spending-heavily
    Linked from S A article
    http://recode.net/2014/11/19/wireless-auction-attracts-whopping-24-billion-in-bids-so-far/
    "We know there is a good potential in India for Tesla," Mr Vijayan said, adding "based on demand there could be a manufacturing plant in Asia and India could be one of the possible locations".
    He said Tesla has been working to produce affordable electric car to cater to the mass segment.
    "With our 3rd generation car Tesla Model 3, we are looking to make it more affordable at a price of around USD 30,000-35,000, which is about half of our current Model S," Vijayan said.
    The company has a manufacturing plant at Freemont in US that can roll out half a million units annually (If Tesla can achieve that $30-35 thou price point they'll probably be able to put a plant anywhere they want!)
    http://profit.ndtv.com/news/industries/article-tesla-keen-to-enter-india-but-says-high-import-duty-a-roadblock-700069
    Norwegian Air CEO rejects criticism of plan for U.S. budget airline
    BY ALWYN SCOTT AND JEFFREY DASTIN
    NEW YORK/SEATTLE Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:09pm EST
    Norwegian is one of the first airlines trying to bring low-cost flying to long-haul flights. It has a fleet of 17 Boeing 787 Dreamliners and plans to order at least five to 10 more.
    Kjos said the Irish subsidiary is necessary to obtain access for all of Norwegian's aircraft to fly between the United States, Europe and Asia. If the company is only incorporated in Norway, it does not have access to many countries in Asia, since Norway is not part of the European Union. That would leave Norwegian running two airlines that separately serve the United States and Asia, and not able to shift aircraft from one region to the other.
    They (opponents)say Norwegian will dodge U.S. labor laws by using its Irish subsidiary to take advantage of labor laws that are weaker than in Norway, threatening U.S. jobs.
    "It would be a logistical nightmare," Kjos said. "We can't have one airline flying east, one airline flying west." http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/20/us-usa-airlines-norwegian-air-idUSKCN0J402I20141120
    By COSTAS PARIS Copyright W S J
    Updated Nov. 17, 2014 8:49 a.m. ET
    (paste and copy)
    LONDON—Shipping freight rates from Asia to Europe, the world’s busiest trade route, on Monday logged their biggest-ever weekly drop, as European growth is stagnating and Japan just fell back into recession.
    Container-shipping volumes are considered an important barometer of the global economy. Container ships move items as diverse as household goods, apparel, toys, electronics and food. Analysts said they expected further shipping-rate weakness because the peak demand season for Asian exports ahead of the end-of-year holidays is already over.
    Prices between Asian and European ports fell 21% per 20-foot container to $934, compared with $1,175 at the beginning of last week, according to the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index.The benchmark Asia-to-Europe rate stood at $1,765 per container at the start of the year.
    “Shipping lines have at this point lost control over freight rates,” said Jonathan Roach, container-shipping analyst at London-based Braemar ACM Shipbroking. “They are desperately trying to fill their ships while being hit by a double whammy: a renewed global economic slowdown and a persistent overcapacity of ships.”
    (subscription) http://online.wsj.com/articles/asia-europe-shipping-freight-rates-suffer-record-weekly-fall-1416226192
    TV Studios Court Licensing Deals in Bustling Foreign Markets
    By AMOL SHARMA
    Nov. 19, 2014 10:33 p.m. ET Copyright W S J (paste and copy)
    For Warner Bros. and other U.S. studios, the international TV-licensing bazaar has never been more lucrative
    Licensing content to foreign TV channels is one of several ways U.S. media companies are tapping into growing overseas markets as they contend with a maturing pay-TV market at home. The U.S. growth in pay-TV subscriptions over the past 30 years has fueled the profits of TV channels and, in turn, created higher demand for the content studios like Warner produce.
    Now, U.S. cable and satellite connections have peaked at around 100 million households, representing 86.5% penetration. That compares with an average penetration of just 48% across non-U.S. markets in 2013, according to securities firm Jefferies, leaving plenty of room for growth in European, Asian and Latin American markets.
    As new international channels launch, they have voracious demand for content. The price paid by international networks for TV programming is growing at a double-digit pace, says Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne. “American studios have a huge advantage,” he said. “They can afford the kind of production budgets that most national players in their own market can’t.” (Content sales also go the other direction, of course, and U.S. TV networks have long licensed reality shows from foreign producers and are ramping up on scripted content, too.)
    (subscription)http://online.wsj.com/articles/tv-studios-court-licensing-deals-in-bustling-foreign-markets-1416454383?mod=WSJ_hp_RightTopStories
  • Morningstar's Portfolio Manager Price Updating Concern ...
    Sorry for the drop-out period- it was dinner time. OK, now at 6:37pm PST, here's what M* has to offer for ARTGX:
    ARTGX 15.5 -13.75 -3.43 Artisan Global Value Investor
    As Max said, this is just risible. They finally got the closing price posted, but they show a drop of $13.75, or 3.43%. from the previous day's post. Let's see now: with a drop of $13.75, and today's post at $15.50, that would have put yesterdays supposed value at $29.25. A 3.43% drop from $29.25 would be $1.02, making today's new number $28.23.
    Reality intervenes: Yesterdays value was actually $16.05. Today's value is actually $15.50. Yesterday's value of 16.05 did actually decrease by 3.43%, which is 55¢, making the new number $15.50, which it is. So I guess that M* figures that 2 out of 3 is OK. When I was in grammar school, unfortunately 2 out of 3 was only 66%, which was a failing grade by anyone's measure.
    What a joke!
  • Morningstar's Portfolio Manager Price Updating Concern ...
    At 5:35pm PST it looks as if M* finally caught up to Google, except for ARTGX, which is down 55¢ because of a distribution today.
    I'm seeing the update on ARTGX now.......are you?
    And were you referring to the "main" M* quote, or just the quote as seen in Portfolio Manager?