You guys are pouring on the pessimism a little thick here, don't you think? Like Emily (below) I'm planning for a future that's a little brighter.

Thanks for the explanation. My biggest bond fund holding is FADMX, followed by FTBFX, FCNVX, PTIAX and FAGIX. I’ve stuck mostly to Fidelity funds for simplicity and ease in rebalancing. I also have a considerable number of CDs and Treasuries in ladders extending out 5 years. Now that interest rates are dropping, I’m reinvesting maturing issues into bond funds.

except when you’re over 75 the number of years you have to fund left are less than 20 and very possibly less than 10

This is a nice feature I learned from @msf years ago. In the long run, it help to build sizable positions in institutional shares of OEFs. The $5 spend pays itself many times over from having lower expense ratio.
Does Schwab offers similar fearure ?

The changes to Fidelity automatic investment features have been implemented many months ago, may be even in 2023. That feature is not as good as it used to be, say in 2022. That feature used to be very flexible and you used to be able to use it for a next day trade.
Fidelity wants maximum number of $49-50 commissions not $5 commissions.

+1 Anna & Catch.
Rarely do we share our age or what our investments are intended for. If you are 25 - close your eyes. All will be well. If you are 50, maybe squint a little. But if you are over 75 and counting on those investments to sustain you and yours thru your lifetime, tread very cautiously.

Not surprising that the 4% Rule fails globally
Wade Pfau has a long 1+ hour podcast (8/1/24), and an early segment within is for testing the 4% Rule globally. It failed for most countries. It almost worked for Australia but it was a 3% Rule instead. So, the 4% Rule is something unique to the US and possibly Canada.
Edit - As the YouTube link opened as an embedded link, note the the relevant segments starts around 7:40.

Link to related 2010 paper, https://tinyurl.com/3299f69j

NASDAQ - 55.63%
S&P 500 - 56.78%
DOW - 53.78%
###
Only paper losses unless you lock them in.

Hi@Tarwheel
A good and fair question.
The inclination to use the etf's, in the list, for bond fund performance, is the sector types represented, as well as their duration.
Surely not a 'perfect' list, but allows for those viewing to perhaps have some ideas about bond(s) performance in the sectors relative to one another. Several of the listings are from requests. BUT, I have to keep the list to a manageable size.
Even the NAV aspect is flawed when considering 'monthly distributions' and the affect upon a NAV price towards a 'month ending' number.
And the fact that some of of etf's are active managed and/or have some 'special sauce' within the management style.
I obtain and input all of the data manually, so my time allotment every week is limited, too.
From a personal note, our portfolio is currently 60% income/cash. BAGIX is 33% of this, with the remainder being MMKT's. And though BAGIX is an intermediate duration fund, I can't really compare this to the etf, IEF; which is 7-10 year duration, but is a Treasury fund. BAGIX has only 27% in UST's.
However, I try to have a view and perhaps find a 'trend' over a time period and a 'why?'.
The inputs that affect the pricing comes from so many directions: flight to safety, a change in yields (for whatever reason), sovereign wealth funds and hedge funds using etf's. There are a lot of moving parts, eh?
NOTE: We do not chase funds for high yields (2008 exception); but do watch for opportunity in a falling yields environment to obtain the gains from pricing.
I made a one year chart (below). Not much value for the most part, as the two funds are bond indexes and one ETF all to the 'long duration' aspect.
You mentioned your having bond funds vs etf's. I'll be glad to build a chart, as I'm curious as to outcomes for active managed bond funds vs a similar category etf; although sometimes a difficult match. You're welcome to provide some tickers.
Well, I've not likely really answered your question; and in the end; I'm just a curious person about 'stuff'.
NOW, I must travel outside and alter the height of the grass in the lawn.
CHART 1 year FNBGX vs VBLAX vs EDV

Here’s the total wreckage over 17 consecutive months (‘07-‘09). The ‘07-‘09 bear market was one of the shortest in history.
Wikipedia ‘07-‘09 Total Bear Market Losses
NASDAQ - 55.63%
S&P 500 - 56.78%
DOW - 53.78%

The chart above shows how digging out of a hole is more difficult than falling into one.
Yep - watching more than half of your investment money disappear over 17 months represents just a little “blip” in the longer term picture. (I’ll drink to that.)
Plus - The Fed “put” (known at the time as ”quantitative easing”) will be there next time around to arrest the decline and will be able to break the fall after it exceeds 50%.
To the Fed: “How do I love thee? Let me count the ways ….”

@Sven is asking what price is received when a purchase is made automatically, as opposed to being entered by the investor. It's a good question.
Most automatic investments are via DRIP plans. "True" DRIPs are set up with the companies themselves. In these plans, investors often receive shares from a company based on its closing price on the day of reinvestment, frequently at a discount. For example:

common stockholders may now receive a number of shares based on 95% of the market price per share of common stock at the close of regular trading on The Nasdaq Capital Market on the valuation date fixed by the Board for such distribution

https://ir.ofscreditcompany.com/shareholder-services/dividend-reinvestment-plan
However, for "synthetic" DRIPs, where the brokerage is reinvesting the divs, it's not clear what price the investor is paying for the additional shares. Likewise, when the brokerage is automatically purchasing shares (with investor cash, not divs) on scheduled dates, what price is paid for those shares?
What Fidelity does when reinvesting divs (I don't know about scheduled investments):

Note ... that the stock price at which your reinvestment occurs is not necessarily the same as the price that is in effect on the dividend payable date. This is because we generally buy the shares of domestic companies two business days before the dividend payable date [likely now one day before with T+1], at the market price(s) in effect at the time, in order to help ensure that we have shares on hand to place in your account on the dividend payable date.

https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/customer-service/brokerage-retirement-cust-agree-and-commission-sched.pdf
Related: what price does M* use for purchases in calculating total return including reinvested dividends?

Reinvestments are made using the actual reinvestment price,

https://admainnew.morningstar.com/directhelp/Glossary/Performance/Total_Return.htm

I’m in rare agreement with @Baseball_Fan on this one.
Yes, over the long haul markets go up. Equities beat cash and bonds over very long periods. It’s been demonstrated that dead investors outperform living ones. But there are always lurking the unknown / unexpected downdrafts. When these ”ripples in space time” do occur investors often react irrationally. Dump and run is pretty common unless maybe you’re a ”steely-nerve” manager at a big investment house, hedge fund, pension fund or endowment with a sizable amount of your AUM locked-up for years.
Most of us mere mortals invest in the real perceived everyday world. Setting a 25-30 year time horizon and then shutting your eyes is harder than it might sound. The fact that we are visiting this site is proof we haven’t shut our eyes to our investments. When a ‘29 or 2,000 or ‘08 comes along, it feels like the morning after drinking a bad bottle of booze. Lying flat on the floor, common sense and rationality often fly out the door.

A slightly different view, FWIW. The first number data after the 'name' is the percentage of, within the total holdings. I.E. .43% for the first Vanguard listing. Page data from M* for the top twenty.

NT Ext Eq Mkt Indx Fd DC Lending Tier 5	Not Rated	—	0.02	
Unlock
1,649,659,963	
1,649,659,963
––
Jun 30, 2024
Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Inv		0.43	0.00	
Unlock
868,400	
0
0.00%	Jul 31, 2024
Vanguard Institutional Extnd Mkt Idx Tr		0.38	0.02	
Unlock
756,598	
4,126
0.55%	Jul 31, 2024
Vanguard Small Cap Index	Not Rated	0.34	0.01	
Unlock
687,760	
1,863
0.27%	Jul 31, 2024
Fidelity Extended Market Index		0.14	0.02	
Unlock
281,449	
281,449
––
Jun 30, 2024
Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Inv		0.12	0.01	
Unlock
231,593	
1,049
0.46%	Jul 31, 2024
Vanguard Small Cap Growth Index Inv		0.10	0.02	
Unlock
192,865	
-735
0.38%	Jul 31, 2024
iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF		0.10	0.03	
Unlock
192,396	
152
0.08%	Aug 28, 2024
iShares Russell Mid-Cap ETF		0.09	0.01	
Unlock
181,128	
132
0.07%	Aug 28, 2024
Russell 1000 Index Fund	Not Rated	0.09	0.00	
Unlock
174,341	
0
0.00%	Jul 31, 2024
Blackrock Russ 1000 Eq Idx Composite	Not Rated	0.09	0.00	
Unlock
174,341	
174,341
––
Jun 30, 2024
State St Russell Sm/Mid Cp® Indx NL Cl C		0.08	0.01	
Unlock
161,788	
116,888
260.33%	Jul 31, 2024
Schwab US Mid-Cap ETF™		0.07	0.02	
Unlock
131,950	
0
0.00%	Aug 30, 2024
iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF		0.06	0.00	
Unlock
128,597	
48
0.04%	Aug 28, 2024
Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index		0.05	0.03	
Unlock
105,223	
30,800
41.39%	May 31, 2024
BlackRock Extended Equity Market K		0.05	0.02	
Unlock
104,537	
104,537
––
Jun 30, 2024
iShares US Technology ETF		0.05	0.01	
Unlock
99,370	
-39
0.04%	Aug 28, 2024
BlackRock Russell 2500™ Index F		0.05	0.03	
Unlock
93,367	
93,367
––
Jun 30, 2024
Fidelity Total Market Index		0.05	0.00	
Unlock
90,922	
90,922
––
Jun 30, 2024
Fidelity Series Total Market Index		0.03	0.00	
Unlock
68,109	
68,109
––
Jun 30, 2024
Total (for Top 20)		2.36			1,654,384,697	
1,650,626,972

NOTE:

My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the select bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.

W/E August 30, 2024..... A week of price swings with few + NAV's
Bond NAV's had many price swings through the week, with only a few on the list having a positive pricing week. *** I'm going to attempt to discover going forward, if there becomes any selling more directed towards the end of the week(s). A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
FIRST:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, August 26 - August 30, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 5.16% yield. MMKT's yields remain basically unchanged for the past weeks. Fidelity's MMKT's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MMKT's.
--- AGG = -.52% / +3.18% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.16% / +4.03% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = -.01% / +3.19% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = -.29% / +3.2% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = -.74% / +2.74% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = -.46% / +3.30% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = -.04% / +3.79% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = -.12% / +3.71% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = -1.52% / +2.04% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = -1.93% / -.15% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = -2.68% / -2.03% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = -2.73% / -3.52% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = +3.90% / +5.70% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = -5.77% / -12.71% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = -.49% / +3.54% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- LQD = -.86% / +3.12% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- BKLN = +.67% / +5.23% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = -.08% / +4.29% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = -.48%/+4.05% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = -.42% /+1.05% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = -.45%/+6.51% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = +.20% / +4.00% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = -.03% / +6.48% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 5.16% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch

USAGX was excellent in the early 2000's when Mark Johnson was at the helm.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908695/000090869508000147/pe39.txt

Breakdown
67.83% % of Shares Held by All Insider
6.57% % of Shares Held by Institutions
20.43% % of Float Held by Institutions
306 Number of Institutions Holding Shares
Top Institutional Holders
Holder Shares Date Reported % Out Value
Vanguard Group Inc 2.88M Jun 30, 2024 1.44% 56,157,660
Blackrock Inc. 2.18M Jun 30, 2024 1.09% 42,590,983
Susquehanna Intl 1.06M Jun 30, 2024 0.53% 20,579,208
Geode Capital Management, LLC 941.82k Jun 30, 2024 0.47% 18,365,490
Citadel Advisors Llc 556.05k Jun 30, 2024 0.28% 10,843,053
State Street Corporation 440.16k Jun 30, 2024 0.22% 8,583,198
Greenwich Wealth Management Llc 353.5k Jun 30, 2024 0.18% 6,893,250
Group One Trading, L.P. 340.04k Jun 30, 2024 0.17% 6,630,838
Charles Schwab Investment 265.87k Jun 30, 2024 0.13% 5,184,484
Jane Street Group, LLC 264.25k Jun 30, 2024 0.13%

AND MaxFi and an everything you'd ever want to know LINK. Well, perhaps; but there's even a link to the Bogelheads and a discussion there. And don't miss the videos, too. SCROLL down the multi link page.
All I want is a real portfolio returns list that can be verified from prior years. If one finds that list, please link here. Thank you.

Ratio of GDX:GLD shows how depressed the miners are relative to gold-bullion. The ratio peaked at 0.586 in 2006, bottomed at 0.1089 in 2015 and at 0.1081 again in 2020 (pandemic low). Now it's only 0.167; the recent range is 0.136-0.173. It doesn't have to reach 0.586 to make money in miners.
Of course, the miners were to blame in the past because they focused on exploration and production, not profitability. It is said that they are now different and more aware of shareholders' interests. Some even pay variable-dividends. But it would take more to lure back former investors who got burned repeatedly in the past.
In the 1-yr chart of the ratio GDX:GLD, change the dates as needed.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX:GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72470038519

Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site through August, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 30 August. Used month-to-date (MTD) numbers to get preview of full month-ending drop, usually only missing a few funds.
BRKA has been extraordinary this year at 31.8% YTD, 11.5% in August alone.

Sorry @Baseball_Fan Can’t pull up the linked source.
I do not use any particular planning tools. I invest primarily in a wide variety of actively managed moderate risk funds. All (except PRPFX) allow the manager a lot of discretion in what to own. Wouldn’t own these funds if didn’t trust the managers to make good decisions. When I do make a change in the stack of funds (as I did Friday) I follow up by using Fidelity’s analytics tool for some sort of corroboration as to how much market risk I have and how it is dispersed among asset types. Usually those results and my rough guess align pretty closely. I prefer a scotch / water ratio of about 50/50. In terms of fixed income vs. riskier assets, the desired proportion is pretty similar.
Subscribe to James Stack’s informative InvesTech newsletter, surveying his recommended portfolio - but taking little in specific action from it. Subscribe to Bill Fleckenstein’s daily commentaries - his obsession over gold and his foreboding about equity valuations in general (“passive inflows” particularly). Subscribe to Barron’s, the WSJ and Bloomberg. Currently listening nightly to a long stack of podcasts by Meb Faber (Cambrea Funds) whose interviews with various money managers are both entertaining and insightful. I subscribe to Morningstar mainly for running fund comparisons. Sometimes their fund analysis points out how one manager’s approach varies from others in the same camp.