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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Tariffs
    It looks like Trump did China and BYD, a company producing electric cars, a solid. Tesla used to sell most of their cars in the USA, (232,400 from Jan-May in 2024) and China (219,056, same timeframe). Now that nobody will be able to buy Teslas in China, BYD is taking off like a rocket. Their stock is soaring. Elon Musk should personally thank his leader for the thoughtful gift. Combine that will sinking sales, Tesla is in the doghouse. Biden already had a 100% tariff on these cars, so nobody is buying them in the US. They are selling them in Europe.
  • Tariffs

    Democrats Shouldn’t Support Tariffs
    Nor should anyone else really. If nothing else at least scroll down to the SM post from Joey Politano.
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    @Sven said,
    I understand that iPhones have very high profit margins
    I looked into Apple's "economic footprint" and discovered that Apple exceeds the government revenues of Switzerland, Norway and Russia. Only 9 countries are larger economic entities than Walmart.
    image
    Many of the top 25 economic entities are Corporations, not Countries.
    image
    Here are a couple of articles for food for thought when it comes to the economic significance of individual countries and individual global corporations. Few have mentioned that these exemptions and tariffs have a huge impact on many global corporations. These global corporations have a different kind of allegiance than do countries. Corporate goals are aligned more closely with shareholders demands than the messy needs of countryman's.
    Because their goal don't always align, Corporations operate as odd bed fellows in the Countries they do business as well as the countries they sell to.
    Countries vs Corporations - Comparing Economic Entities
    corporations-not-countries-dominate-the-list-of-the-world-s-biggest-economic-entities/
    Global Manufacturing:
    global-manufacturing-scorecard-how-the-us-compares-to-18-other-nations
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    Interesting article @hank. The revenue difference between the iPad and iPhone revenue was surprise at first until I considered it a bit more.
    Just some of my own observations:
    - Many iPads seem to sell for less than the price of an iPhone
    - Most of the masses can be found nearly anywhere with a phone in their hands, not so much a tablet.
    - The younger generation (13-25 yr olds) live and die with their phones so it seems. They rarely speak of must having to possess a tablet.
    - I own all 4 (phone, pad, iMac and MacBook). I do so mostly for vision related reasons but also seamless integration between them. The phone is primarily just a phone to me. I hate all the scrolling around, enlarging and/or shrinking etc., etc. yet my kids do it with no sweat whatsoever as if they came into this world with a phone in their hands. I had breakfast Sunday morning with a 4yr-old and her parents. She took over my phone and seemed to know what to do with everything. What's funny is that at my home they ask me to assist them with performing a task on the iMac or MacBook. Maybe it's just because they have to use a mouse or curser instead of swiping with their fingers.
  • Timely T/A for Stock Investors
    S&P appears poised to regain the Fibo 50% retracement line, and may even make it's first run at the 61.8% line.
    Meanwhile, here's some historical data that helps me better understand why Katie S's recurring guidance over the past month or so has included the notion of potential pause in the bull in 2025.
    https://fortune.com/2025/04/13/trump-tariff-stock-market-losses-dow-sp500-nasdaq-breakeven-rally/
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    The UST's found basis point increases (higher yields) in the range of .20 - 50 last week, for the shorter duration through the long duration. This Monday morning finds lower yields in the .05 basis point area. So, a small victory as of 9pm, Monday morning. Last week had very large percentage losses for the 'common, non-complex' bond funds ranging from a -3.3% for LQD to -2.5% for plain jane funds as; AGG, FBND, BAGIX and many other 'core or core+' funds. Sadly, one can't rely on what 'announcements' will arrive from DC at any given moment. We're having fun, eh ??? Hang in there. Green in bonds and equity so far, in the pre-markets, at 9:10AM.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Tariffs
    "All 11 S&P 500 sectors are down since the announcement, with energy the hardest hit. That is because oil prices have tumbled to their lowest levels since 2021 on fears that a global recession will curb demand."
    "The materials and consumer-discretionary sectors are both down sharply because of their reliance on imports, while real estate and financials were hit hard by worries about slowing growth."
    "A bond selloff that began Monday turned into the biggest weekly climb in the 10-year yield in almost 25 years, alarming traders."
    "Traders are bracing for more big moves ahead. The Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks expectations for the size of stock swings over the next 30 days, just touched the highest level since March 2020."
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-companies-and-markets-hit-hardest-by-trump-s-tariffs/ar-AA1CPk0a
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    @Crash, thank you for this comprehensive article. Good reminder that the Canadian Bloomberg has many free good articles.
    FYI, the future market for 2, 5, 10, and 30 years Treasuries are up slightly.
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
    Let’s see how the bond market plays out next week.
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    Interesting Bloomberg Article (here)
    image
    Is anyone else surprised by how little ipads contribute to Apple’s bottom line? I sure was. 99% of my internet access is on ipads. I own 2 newer models, a larger ipad “Air” for home and a smaller “mini” when away. Sounds like maybe Samsung or some of the other non-IOS devices have taken a big bite out of Apple.
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    A tiny bright spot as of 11pm EST. 2, 5, 10 and 30 year UST's are slightly positive for pricing at this time. Someone is nibbling with buys.
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    Good post @Crash
    For sure. Liquidity issues among some big players were rumored last week. Shortage of cash in the system to cover losses. Perhaps the “elephant in the room” owing to the amount of leverage / speculation in the system. Credit markets were primed. T just lit the fuse.
    Story: Fed official says Fed ready to intervene if necessary.
    Here’s an earlier link to the FT posted in a different thread by @equalizer
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    "U.S. President Donald Trump’s erratic tariff moves have led to wild swings in U.S. government debt over the past week by not only undermining confidence in the economy, but also the direction of U.S. policy and America’s standing in the world. That’s eroding appetite for U.S. assets and is undermining the status of the federal government’s debt as the world’s most risk-free asset against which virtually everything else is priced."
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2025/04/11/us-treasuries-slide-with-selloff-worst-since-2019-repo-blowout/
  • Tariffs
    I got screwed, so everyone else deserves it, too?
    About as much empathy there are the Orange Lump.
    I got a better idea. Don't fuck people. Instead, tax the rich. When's the last time they paid their FAIR share? Um... NEVER. Scale-back gov't jobs by attrition. Everyone gets older and wants to retire. Cut back spending gradually.
    The Repugnants are hell-bent on giving themselves that permanent tax cut. In order to do it, they want the rest of us to struggle. Life does not need to be such an ordeal. Where is it written that it must be so? I'll tell you: nowhere. But pass the Orange Kool-Aid, anyway. Who cares about others? I got myself to worry about. ... A selfish, closed-in way to live.
    Ya, THIS is the kind of silly, on-and-off, unreliable opossum shit that is roiling the world right now. It's quite impossible to make a plan at all.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/13/trump-commerce-chief-says-not-like-a-permanent-sort-of-exemption-for-phones-computers.html
  • Tariffs
    How do I know that DOGE work?
    The louder the scream, the more it's correct.
    Prez after Prez have been saying we are going to cut but didn't.
    Most of these Gov jobs are held by Dems and why they scream.
    If you were laid off, start looking for a job in the private sector.
    I was laid off 3 times after great reviews because my company didn't meet the goal, or was acquired, or they wanted to get rid of older guys.
    Two of them were immediately; they told me to take my hands off the keyboard and leave the building. One of them was exactly when my kids were in college. Each time it was 15-20% of the workforce. Welcome to the real world of corporate America.
    Please listen to this eye-opening interview and what the DOGE team has been doing (https://www.foxnews.com/video/6370654580112)
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    Lutnick is saying that this electronics tariff exemption is just temporary.
    May be Bessent, Lutnick & Navarro should be required to issue joint statements only.
    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/commerce-secretary-lutnick-tariff-exemptions-electronics-temporary/story?id=120752319
    No kidding. It's not just FOTUS that can't keep his story straight, but his top 'advisors' as well. This is pure insanity+incompetence from a gang that can't shoot, let alone speak, straight. And the markets, if not all of us, suffer from the chaos that shifts hour-by-hour, tweet-by-tweet, media-hit-by-media-hit.
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    YTD Performance Thru Friday, 11 April 2025 (aka WTD) -- Selected Funds
    image

    Sorted by absolute percentage return (APR), best to worst.
    Includes several funds from Lewis Braham article posted by @Observant.
    For year through Friday: QQQ -11%, SPY -8.6%, AGG +1.1%, BRKA +15.1%.
    Current drawdown, also through Friday: QQQ -12.9%, SPY -11.1%, JNK -3.7%, PIMIX -2.5%, DODIX -2.2%, AGG -1.8%.
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    It's interesting when people use pretzel logic in an attempt to somehow justify Trump's terrible tariffs.
    The tariff "plan" is clearly absurd (e.g., rate calculations, taxing uninhabited islands)
    and it was implemented haphazardly. Communication from administration officials regarding tariffs
    was often either nonexistant or contradictory. Most credible economists and financial professionals
    believe the end result will be higher inflation, increased unemployment, and lower GDP.
    Regardless of how some people "spin" these tariffs, it was an extremely imprudent act
    which heightened global financial risks and alienated major US allies.
    The art of reasoning is an art which often take decades to acquire.
    The same spin you guys used about the southern border being closed and the Prez is in great shape and runs the country. This is why all these threads belong in the OFF TOPIC forum.
    There are 5-6 posters that fill out the investment forums daily, and that's why we don't discuss investing as much.
    The other investing forum is still about investing, not politics.
  • Policy Financial Implications
    Let me guess:
    Another tariff post and the implication + more attacks and ridicule Trump.
    These articles/interviews are all the same. The results can be bad.
    Let's discuss the opposite: why I don't see it here. What will happen if most sign a deal?
    Remember, any time we get something we didn't have before, it's a win.
    If Europe starts spending more money on defense, it is a win too.
    I'm so afraid that Canadians are angry and won't help us.
    The elephant in the room is China. (https://www.foxnews.com/video/6371325293112)
    Why will Russia and China benefit?
    If oil goes down, Russia lose.
    If the US doesn't buy Chinese products, who will? Start thinking ST pain for LT gains and stop whining. But wait, Pelosi, Obama, and Biden believed in stopping China and put tariffs in place.
    Let's start talking about how to make money or even protect it. This is not the first decline. I want to know/discuss what to do Monday each week.
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    Lutnick is saying that this electronics tariff exemption is just temporary.
    May be Bessent, Lutnick & Navarro should be required to issue joint statements only.
    @yogibb, I totally agree in light the rapid flip-floping on tariffs. It has reported that there is internal struggle between Bessent and Lutnick on implementing the tariffs, let alone where Narravo stands. Bessent is being the adult between the two.
    To better understand Navarro, this WSJ provides further insights. Sorry that is behind a paywall.
    https://apple.news/ATpThedCYSIa_9C5TGGZJdw
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    Most Americans, especially second-gen and beyond, are conditioned by a culture where negotiating feels awkward or rude. They treat prices and terms as fixed. But the world doesn’t run on fixed terms—it runs on what you can get someone else to agree to.
    * Leverage is power: The person who can walk away has the upper hand. The moment you need something, you’ve lost a chunk of your leverage.
    * Don’t bid against yourself: Starting with a $1 offer is symbolic—it shifts the power dynamic. You’re forcing the seller to chase you rather than the other way around. Most people cave and try to “be reasonable” too early. All these ridiculous numbers mean nothing, and then you read these articles: "It's not 37%, after tidious calculation, it's really only 15%." Who cares? good negotiators stars way, way beyond the target.
    * Negotiation is performance: BS, humor, firmness, preempting objections, and feigned disinterest—these are all tools. It’s not about being “polite”; it’s about reading the situation and playing the game.
    * Language and cultural unity matter: When you deal with groups who negotiate collectively, it adds a layer of strategy. You’re not dealing with one mind, you’re dealing with a shifting consensus. That’s tough.
    * Big picture thinking: If Trump gets 10% off here, 5% there—it’s not about the noise, it’s about net gains. What’s the bottom line?
    The art of negotiation is an art that is acquired over decades.