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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Policy Financial Implications
    Let me guess:
    Another tariff post and the implication + more attacks and ridicule Trump.
    These articles/interviews are all the same. The results can be bad.
    Let's discuss the opposite: why I don't see it here. What will happen if most sign a deal?
    Remember, any time we get something we didn't have before, it's a win.
    If Europe starts spending more money on defense, it is a win too.
    I'm so afraid that Canadians are angry and won't help us.
    The elephant in the room is China. (https://www.foxnews.com/video/6371325293112)
    Why will Russia and China benefit?
    If oil goes down, Russia lose.
    If the US doesn't buy Chinese products, who will? Start thinking ST pain for LT gains and stop whining. But wait, Pelosi, Obama, and Biden believed in stopping China and put tariffs in place.
    Let's start talking about how to make money or even protect it. This is not the first decline. I want to know/discuss what to do Monday each week.
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    Lutnick is saying that this electronics tariff exemption is just temporary.
    May be Bessent, Lutnick & Navarro should be required to issue joint statements only.
    @yogibb, I totally agree in light the rapid flip-floping on tariffs. It has reported that there is internal struggle between Bessent and Lutnick on implementing the tariffs, let alone where Narravo stands. Bessent is being the adult between the two.
    To better understand Navarro, this WSJ provides further insights. Sorry that is behind a paywall.
    https://apple.news/ATpThedCYSIa_9C5TGGZJdw
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    Most Americans, especially second-gen and beyond, are conditioned by a culture where negotiating feels awkward or rude. They treat prices and terms as fixed. But the world doesn’t run on fixed terms—it runs on what you can get someone else to agree to.
    * Leverage is power: The person who can walk away has the upper hand. The moment you need something, you’ve lost a chunk of your leverage.
    * Don’t bid against yourself: Starting with a $1 offer is symbolic—it shifts the power dynamic. You’re forcing the seller to chase you rather than the other way around. Most people cave and try to “be reasonable” too early. All these ridiculous numbers mean nothing, and then you read these articles: "It's not 37%, after tidious calculation, it's really only 15%." Who cares? good negotiators stars way, way beyond the target.
    * Negotiation is performance: BS, humor, firmness, preempting objections, and feigned disinterest—these are all tools. It’s not about being “polite”; it’s about reading the situation and playing the game.
    * Language and cultural unity matter: When you deal with groups who negotiate collectively, it adds a layer of strategy. You’re not dealing with one mind, you’re dealing with a shifting consensus. That’s tough.
    * Big picture thinking: If Trump gets 10% off here, 5% there—it’s not about the noise, it’s about net gains. What’s the bottom line?
    The art of negotiation is an art that is acquired over decades.
  • Death-Crosses
    Let's check how the death/golden cross worked in the past, using the SP500. See (link)
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 11 April 2025. Flows remain updated through 4 April.
    MTD numbers look a lot better than last week, but still down: SPY -4.5%, AGG -1.6%.
    SPY below 10mo and 3mo SMA.
    AGG just about to go under 10mo SMA, looks like, but 3mo is under. Using MTD data.
    Interesting in the Katie Stockton video posted by @stillers, she focuses on month ending data.
    Other MTD: BRKA -1.8%, PIMIX -2.5%, DODIX -2.1%, HOSIX -0.8%, DODGX -6.7%,
    Looking to update the FLOW data daily, which I think would be huge addition to premium site, especially for traders.
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    Lutnick is saying that this electronics tariff exemption is just temporary.
    May be Bessent, Lutnick & Navarro should be required to issue joint statements only.
    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/commerce-secretary-lutnick-tariff-exemptions-electronics-temporary/story?id=120752319
  • Timely T/A for Stock Investors
    Some great, recent stuff from Katie Stockton.

    Left this old lady with the feeling that I may be too old to even hope to see a leveling off, much less a recovery, during my dwindling lifetime.
    Hey, @Anna! Always great to see your posts.
    The Mike Santoli analysis I referenced shows that it'll likely be ~6-9 months in a best case scenario before the 50 dMA rises back above the 200 dMA (Golden Cross).
    Here's hoping you have at least that left!
  • Timely T/A for Stock Investors
    What TA signals led to the 50% Sell on March 31?
    Great question.
    No specific T/A signals lead to our March 31 SELLs of 50% of stocks on March 31. T/A is after all, large parts science and art. It is generally always a combination of chart movements and signals, and in our case, analysis and guidance of professional T/A's, that causes us to act.
    BTW, my actions were fully documented on the Liberation Day thread that was started on March 31, the Monday before Liberation Day. I ended up crediting the OP for throwing us over the edge and ultimately breaking a cardinal rule of investment strategy, selling stocks off to BELOW a lifetime, minimum %.
    So it was far more a combination/compilation of things:
    I had been DEEPLY worried about the economic and market impacts of tariffs from whatever day (in Nov?) the buffoon-elect stated he wanted to become known as the tariff president.
    I mean DEEPLY worried. To the point that we significantly reduced our port volatility at our 2024 YE review, while also reducing our stock allocation % to the minimum, lifetime level.
    The chart and market action around the end of Feb/beg of March were our primary indicators. If you recall, the buffoon postponed the BIG tariff announcement 30 days from March to April.
    Take a look at charts and market performance in March. During that month, Katie Stockton and the other T/A's we follow were giving guidance like (paraphrasing):
    2025 will be a year that the bull market pauses at best and NADAQ and the S&P are rolling over, and a host of other analysis/guidance that was clearly pointing to our belief that this could get WAY worse before it gets ANY better.
    The depths of a potential market sell off were widely being projected, with T/A's duly calc'ing lines in the sand to which respective markets could drop if the April tariffs were anything near the levels the buffoon was spewing.
    We knew that a recession had not been priced in yet. We knew that market watchers were not yet even allowing a deep recession to enter the picture.
    We looked at the levels to which it appeared the market could/would drop if the news was as bad or worse as what happened in early March at the 30-day postponement.
    So, T/A being large part art, what we saw coming on Liberation Day was a freight train, operated by a mad man, barreling down the tracks, with our stock portfolio smack in the middle of them.
    It was a SCARY looking picture and we simply BLINKED and got the hell outta the way.
  • Policy Financial Implications
    Ambassador Richard Haass was a featured guest on this week's Wall St Week episode.
    David Westin asked Mr. Haass which countries may benefit and which may suffer due to our current policies.
    Obviously, this can have financial implications.
    Please, let's focus on potential economic/investing impacts
    and refrain from ad hominem attacks against the current administration.
    Who may benefit?
    The first country mentioned was Russia while the second country was China.
    Israel is probably third due to our current hands-off approach.
    More broadly speaking - authoritarian countries like Turkey, Hungary, and some Gulf countries.
    Who may suffer?
    Europe will lose economically because of the tariffs.
    Generally, allies who are our principal trading partners will suffer.
    Canada and Mexico were mentioned.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vy3ImGQFEM&t=2850s
  • Major budget cuts proposed for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    This administration also wants to dismantle FEMA and push the disaster relief responsibility to the states. Do you think Florida state can handle hurricane Katrina alone? We have witnessed how difficult to recover after Katrina even with FEMA assistance.
    FEMA has denied North Carolina’s request to continue matching 100% of the state’s spending on Hurricane Helene recovery.
    ...
    The agency’s decision means that North Carolina will lose a critical share of federal assistance in what’s expected to be a years-long rebuild process.
    After Helene struck in late September, the Biden administration gave the green light for FEMA to reimburse North Carolina on 100% of disaster relief assistance — particularly with debris removal and emergency protective services. The cost-share allowed state officials to plow ahead on time-sensitive needs more quickly.
    In December, FEMA also set the federal cost-share for all other categories of assistance at 90%. But the 100% period for debris cleanup and other services was set to end after six months.
    https://ncnewsline.com/2025/04/12/fema-will-stop-matching-100-of-helene-recovery-money-in-nc-stein-says/
    I am just waiting to see if FEMA/budget will be cut by DOGE? Govt. should not be in business to provide insurance.
    FEMA assistance is not the same as insurance. Assistance only provides the basic needs for a home to be safe, sanitary and livable. ... FEMA assistance will allow you to make basic home repairs. Expenses for repairs that exceed the conditions to make a home safe, sanitary and livable are ineligible.
    https://www.fema.gov/fact-sheet/understanding-what-uninsured-losses-fema-may-cover
  • Major budget cuts proposed for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    "I am just waiting to see if FEMA/budget will be cut by DOGE?  Govt. should not be in business to provide insurance."
    Absolutely right... @kings53man tells it like it is! When major disasters occur no one should expect any help from the government- city, county, state or federal. If you can't hack life then you have no business being alive.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (04/11/25)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    00:33 Topics
    01:21 Signs of Capitulation?
    10:37 One of the Craziest Days in Market History
    17:16 Expect More Volatility
    25:04 Easing Inflation
    28:15 The Fed Put to the Rescue?
    33:19 Rising Real Wages
    Video
    Blog
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    "It’s the kind of friendly treatment that industry was envisioning when Apple CEO Tim Cook, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos assembled behind the president during his Jan. 20 inauguration. That united display of fealty reflected Big Tech’s hopes that Trump would be more accommodating than President Joe Biden’s administration’s and help propel an already booming industry to even greater heights."
    "Apple won praise from Trump in late February when the Cupertino, California, company committed to invest $500 billion and add 20,000 jobs in the U.S. during the next four years. The pledge was an echo of a $350 billion investment commitment in the U.S. that Apple made during Trump’s first term when the iPhone was exempted from China tariffs."
    apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-smartphones-electronics-laptops-apple-10c31e91d7790bfe8fb004f547109359
  • Major budget cuts proposed for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    Following are excerpts from an NPR report:
    The Trump administration is proposing deep cuts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    The Trump administration is proposing deep cuts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, according to a draft budget proposal viewed by NPR. The agency's budget for 2026 would be slashed by more than 25% overall from its current level of roughly $6 billion under the proposal, which would need to be approved by Congress. The draft cuts to NOAA's research operations and fisheries services are particularly severe.
    If enacted, the cuts would "take us back to the 1950s in terms of our scientific footing and the American people," says Craig McLean, a former director of NOAA's office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), the agency's research arm, whose career spanned multiple administrations. The budget aims to eliminate OAR, cutting the budget by close to 75% from previous levels and slashing all funding for research that focuses on climate and weather. A few groups from the office, like a team that works on tornado science, would be moved to other parts of the organization. The budget would also end funding for the many cooperative research centers scattered across the country that contribute to climate and weather research. The proposed budget comes as the administration has already fired hundreds of NOAA employees.
    The cuts to the research wing, OAR, says former NOAA Deputy Undersecretary Mary Glackin, who served over several administrations, would "decimate the laboratory systems and the relationship that we have with universities," who work in partnership with the agency on many of its climate, weather, and other research projects.
    It also proposes slashing the operations and personnel budget of the National Marine Fisheries Service, which manages the country's ocean fisheries, by nearly 30%, and moving the rest of the office into the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service — another agency entirely. It also asks for the Fisheries Service staff still with the agency to prioritize ways within its purview to "unleash American energy."
    The proposal also aims to slim down NOAA's investment in some of its premier satellite technology, called geostationary satellites, by 44% compared to current levels. The agency currently has five in orbit, which provide much of the data critical for weather forecasts, as well as weather and climate research and coastal security. The agency was in the process of developing the next generation of its satellites, which would have included several new instruments; the next was scheduled to go into orbit in 2032. The cuts to the program will jeopardize that plan and hamper the progression of key science, according to NOAA officials familiar with the program who were not authorized to speak publicly.
    The budget for the National Weather Service would remain intact.
    Project 2025 provided a preview: Many of the proposed changes echo concepts outlined in Project 2025, the conservative policy blueprint organized by the Washington, DC-based Heritage Foundation think tank, a document the Trump administration has followed closely in recent months.
    Project 2025 calls for NOAA to "be broken up and downsized," keeping the pieces that many Americans are familiar with, like the National Weather Service, and dismantling many of NOAA's other offices. The proposed moves follow that rubric, such as shifting the Fisheries Service to another agency.
    It also called the agency part of "the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry" and laid out ways NOAA's climate science research could be curtailed, some of which have been proposed in the budget document. Decades of research by thousands of scientists in the U.S. and internationally, have linked rising atmospheric carbon dioxide with a warming Earth. Human activities, like burning coal, gas and other fossil fuels, are the primary cause of rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.
    NOAA provides much of the raw data required for weather forecasts via a wide array of data-collection tools, from satellites to ocean buoys to weather balloons. And its scientists run models that turn that data into useful information, like those short-term weather forecasts, seasonal outlooks and long-term looks at how climate change is affecting Earth.
    The agency also includes offices that manage the billions of dollars of U.S. fishery resources, like tuna, cod, scallops and crab. Its scientists figure out how many fish can be caught in order to sustain fish populations in the long term, a task legally required by law. Interruptions to fisheries operations have resulted in the past in delays in season opening or lower annual quotas fishermen are allowed to catch.
    The agency also maintains coastal maps critical to safe maritime activities.

    Comment:
    • Trump's solution to climate change? Get rid of the science research that proves it's harm. Brilliant!
    • Want more energy? Lets open a lot more coal mines. Brilliant!
    • Want to overfish? Get rid of the ocean research that protects fish. Brilliant!
    • Don't quite know how to run the country? Just take a quick look at Project 2025. Brilliant!

  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    @fred495 And I woulda have thought the answer would be: "don't know 'til I see the brown of their noses". Oh, I see, that's the new definition of instinctive in the new and great again Webster's.
  • Timely T/A for Stock Investors
    What TA signals led to the 50% Sell on March 31?
  • Timely T/A for Stock Investors
    And also, as I posted on yogi's Death Cross thread:
    Shortly after Fri's close CNBC's Mike Santoli did a great S&P chart piece on what he called "Dark Crosses" (Death Crosses to many) including a look back at two prior, similar crosses. He showed the time it took to get back to Golden Crosses, and the depths to which the S&P dropped in between the two crosses. It does not appear that video is available (yet?) but well worth the time if/when it is located.
    With all due respect to those NOT inclined to use T/A, in my 45 years of investing, I've found that NOT using T/A during times like these is akin to flying blind. Currently, T/A has allowed me to completely remove emotion, develop a strategy for re-deployment of proceeds from our March 31 sales of 50% of our stocks, and simply connect the dots, so to speak. YMMV.
  • Dow 40,000
    Advocating teaching first graders how to accessorize their steaks! Just wait until the North American Vegetarian Society gets wind of this.
    For educational purposes only (note blue label):
    image
  • Tariffs
    Cramer on what to own in this dicey tariff-environment.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/jim-cramer-explains-the-best-way-to-pick-stocks-right-now.html
    Look for companies with not much business exposure overseas, he says. But here's my confirmation bias at work... What do you think? ... So, BLX does zero business in the US. It's all Latam and Caribbean. The bank was created by governments in the region in the '70s as a semi-official tool to be employed by the Treasuries of those countries. BLX also cooperates in commercial deals, too. One recent event I saw involved collaboration with Canada's Scotiabank to do a deal down south. Those other countries are not tariff-ing each other. And I recall seeing a reference in the past day or two about Panama's gummint working with the US to diminish China's influence around the Canal. (BLX HQ is in Panama City.)
    https://bladex.com/en
  • Tariffs
    Further reputational damage: the Danes. Canadians, as we all already know, are pissed off, too. More than likely, that is the case in a great many places. Canadians are not buying American, refusing to travel and spend money here. I wonder if Doug Ford instituted his tariffs out of Ontario on electricity generated there and sold to NY, MI and MN?
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/danish-shoppers-boycott-us-products-as-greenland-trade-tensions-escalate.html