Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Barry Ritholtz: The Odds Of Fixing U.S. Infrastructure Just Got Better
    I've heard this song before. Nearly every state has cover of it in some form or another.
    One party verse is all about no new taxes, and in fact cut those that we have.
    The other says raise them to pay for this while not cutting the aid we supply to those who need it.
    The chorus follows something along the lines of the blame game.
    Don't know when people are going to rise up and say enough of this crap. Even here at home (MN) we've been unable to raise the gas tax since 1988 fore the aforementioned. Party on Garth.
  • Barry Ritholtz: The Odds Of Fixing U.S. Infrastructure Just Got Better
    My apologies, you're absolutely right. From the SOTU address:
    "Tonight, I'm calling on Congress to produce a bill that generates at least $1.5 trillion for the new infrastructure investment that our country so desperately needs."
    But note also that while Trump fudged the fed amount by using "generates", he never said $200B. Perhaps Trump meant 20% (which would be $300B). Who knows?
  • PRHSX: Is it time to trim holdings?
    The loop hole on Cobra is you don't have to pay until the 4th month starts. Go 3 months or less and it's basically free.
    " 60 days after the later of (1) the date that the qualified beneficiary would lose coverage due to the qualifying event, or (2) the date that the qualified beneficiary is sent notice of his or her right to elect COBRA continuation coverage."
    http://www.dfs.ny.gov/consumer/faqs/faqs_cobra.htm
    You may be confusing this with the three month nonpayment period that ACA allows if you are getting advance premium tax credits (i.e. you have pre-qualified for subsidized premiums). But that only kicks in if you've already made at least one premium payment.
    https://www.healthcare.gov/apply-and-enroll/health-insurance-grace-period/
    This insurance (whatever the grace period) is "free" only if you don't use it. If you use it and fail to pay, I believe that COBRA will claw it back. ACA on the other hand does give you one month totally free without clawback.
    https://www.healthinsurance.org/faqs/what-happens-if-i-dont-make-my-premium-payment-by-the-end-of-the-grace-period/
  • Barry Ritholtz: The Odds Of Fixing U.S. Infrastructure Just Got Better
    Hi @msf
    The money figure, yes; Gary Cohn stated:
    White House advisor Gary Cohn: Infrastructure the 'next leg of the stool' on Trump's agenda
    9:53 AM ET Tue, 30 Jan 2018 | 01:54
    President Donald Trump, in his State of the Union speech Tuesday, plans to discuss a $1.5 trillion infrastructure improvement plan, White House economic advisor Gary Cohn told CNBC.
    Aw, hell; msf........I read and heard $1 trillion in other places, too. Inflation will change the number anyway, yes?
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
  • PRHSX: Is it time to trim holdings?
    New York is another state that provides three years of COBRA-type coverage.
    ISTM that people are complaining about the high cost of medical coverage (as reflected in insurance costs). Whether group coverage (COBRA) or individual coverage (exchange), they'd rather have someone else pay for it.
    COBRA charges virtually the same as what your employer is paying for the insurance (only a 2% surcharge is allowed for the first 18 months; states do vary by what they allow in the second 18 months). This is not gouging - you're paying the real cost.
    Even when your employer pays for it, you're still paying indirectly. When companies hire someone, they budget loaded (all in) costs, including pay, 401k match, health insurance, desk space, etc. They don't care how that's split. More for insurance, less for pay.
    COBRA just gives you a window into what your insurance is costing you.
  • Barry Ritholtz: The Odds Of Fixing U.S. Infrastructure Just Got Better
    If I recall, Trump suggests $1.5 trillion for infrastructure, with $200 billion from Federal "sources" and remainder from state, local sources, as well as "private".
    Just $1T (the $1.5T figure likely relates to the hole the new tax law is projected to blow in the national debt). But hey, what's a half trillion dollars between friends?
    State and local..........okay, and where is this money arriving from.....?
    Especially since states now have to deal with their taxes hurting more (fewer people itemizing, and those who do have SaLT deductions capped). So they're less able to meet current budget needs, let alone allocate money for new projects.
    I have an alternate suggestion, just as unlikely to be realized. We all know that Trump is pushing for an expanded military budget to renovate and upgrade American defenses, and that the interstate highway system, built as part of our military defense system (thanks, Ike) is in need of renovation and upgrading. Put 1 + 1 together, and ...
  • PRHSX: Is it time to trim holdings?
    Agree with dickson on Cobra. I was in-between jobs at the start of 2014 and had to use it. The loop hole on Cobra is you don't have to pay until the 4th month starts. Go 3 months or less and it's basically free. Start that 4th month and you have to back pay those 3 months. So, it's a stop gap to give you time to get insurance, not a good policy to hold for too long (at least that was the case in NY state. Don't know if there is different rules elsewhere).
  • Barry Ritholtz: The Odds Of Fixing U.S. Infrastructure Just Got Better
    Good Luck with this. If I recall, Trump suggests $1.5 trillion for infrastructure, with $200 billion from Federal "sources" and remainder from state, local sources, as well as "private".
    State and local..........okay, and where is this money arriving from.....?
    A few years ago, Michigan had a proposal regarding gas tax to help rebuild Michigan roads. I know several hard core Republican, tax paying citizens who posted to their Facebook pages during this period, something to the effect of "Just say NO to higher taxes to repair the roads." I had, by chance; an opportunity to ask 2 of these folks "where did they expect these monies to arrive from to maintain/improve the roads?" Generally, they expected the monies to be appropriated from some other spending unit in the state budget. OK.
    As to the ability of local governments to help fund infrastructure costs, another good luck.
    Thousands of communities are already part of the FEMA, Safer Grant programs to help fund local police and fire units. Not enough local revenue, yes? I read an online report yesterday about one large community in Michigan closing a fire station and reducing staff by 1/3, as their 3rd Safer grant had been denied.
    Reminds me of the "shovel ready" crap from Obama/Biden, too.
    And the beat goes on.....
  • The 'Dumb Money' Is About To Become Very Influential
    @jerry,
    Most of us on the board realise that the markets are extended. And, with this, I am glad to see you have a plan when the pullback comes. Currently, I don't score the little dip we've had this week of much concern. Earnings in the end will drive stock prices. And, form my perspective they are looking pretty good for 2018. I've seen some numbers where some full year top line projections are in the high 150's for the S&P 500 Index while bottom line (TTM) numbers are in the mid 130's. Know these numbers can get revised just before companies begin to report. So, we will see if they hold as we move through the year.
  • PRHSX: Is it time to trim holdings?
    FRA= full retirement age. Eagerly waiting. Could have done at 62, but did not want to get into ACA. No way I am going to France. Not even getting out of Chicago...like it.
    PRHSX 9.8% is in taxable (direct at TRP=7.7% since 2010 or so) and traditional IRA( 2.1% at vanguard since 3 years just before closing of fund). Actually instead of getting dividend, and paying regular tax, planning to use long term cap gains++soc security for the monthly expenses.
  • PRHSX: Is it time to trim holdings?
    Just a guess, but in the context of retirement, FRA could easily stand for Full Retirement Age (currently 66 - see SSA).
    Trump just appointed Alex Azar, former head of Eli Lilly's US division as HHS Secretary. One of his first tasks was to accept the resignation of CDC Director Brenda Fitzgerald due to investment conflicts of interest, who was appointed by former HHS Secretary Tom Price, who resigned after spending over $1/2 M on private charter flights (or was it his investments in health care companies).
    Trump seems too busy repopulating the swamp to do anything about drug prices. The stock market seems to agree:
    When then-President-elect Donald Trump said pharma was "getting away with murder" one year ago and pledged to lower prices, share prices quickly plummeted. ... But this time, despite the familiar words, the president's comments didn't touch off nearly the same reaction on Wall Street, signaling that industry and investors may be more skeptical about the threat of pricing reform.
    https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/as-azar-sworn-trump-pledges-hhs-secretary-will-get-prices-way-down
  • PRHSX: Is it time to trim holdings?
    ---Any of these transactions in taxable accounts?
    ---The transfer you noted to VTSAX has about 14% of its holdings in healthcare.
    ---The Amazon, JP Morgan, Buffet statement about building a viable self insured healthcare plan may have legs at some point in the future; as well as a Trump statement yesterday about he, too; will be going after the pharma market to reduce the costs. Ascension Health and 2 other large hospital groups announced two weeks ago that they plan to form their own "company" to product generic drugs.
    If these announcements cause concern for your current holdings and you expect ongoing negative impact into healthcare, you may be best to sell all of PRHSX and move the money to VTSAX. Perhaps a most critical question, too; is how long have you held PRHSX to help measure your satisfaction with this fund to this point. A 4% shave in 2 days is not kind, without a doubt; but much of this sector was up almost 11% YTD.
    We maintain about 35% of our equity in healthcare, and will remain for now.
    Your retiring statement.......are you moving to France? I found 256 acronyms for "FRA".
    My non-credentialed 2 cents worth.
    Catch
  • The 'Dumb Money' Is About To Become Very Influential
    FYI: Household holdings of equities and mutual funds account for over 60 percent of total liquid assets, or about $7 trillion above the historic average.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-01-30/the-dumb-money-is-about-to-become-very-influential
  • Trump Stock Rally Second Only To FDR
    @Maurice
    And by the way FDR oversaw the two worst Depressions in the last 100 years.
    What sort of nonsense are you spewing?
    The Great Depression began in 1929 under Herbert Hoover, a pro-business, low-tax, anti-New Deal/anti-"socialist" Republican. Here is GDP Growth under Hoover from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis:
    1930
    -8.5%
    1931
    -6.4%
    1932
    -12.9%
    Roosevelt was president from March 1933 through April 1945. The first part of the New Deal was passed midway through 1933. Here is GDP growth during Roosevelt's presidency:
    1933
    -1.3%
    1934
    +10.8%
    1935
    +8.9%
    1936
    +12.9%
    1937
    +5.1%
    1938
    -3.3%
    1939
    +8.0
    1940
    +8.8%
    1941
    +17.7
    1942
    +18.9%
    1943
    +17.0%
    1944
    +8.0%
    1945
    -1.0%
    Note that the U.S. didn't enter the war till the end of 1941, and the war itself was another form of government spending, i.e., "socialist" fiscal stimulus to build weapons and hire massive amounts of soldiers.
    Also, note that the one significant GDP downturn during Roosevelt's presidency occurred in 1938 after Roosevelt was pressured by a newly-elected Republican Congress to balance the budget and curb government spending, which he did.
  • SPY vs PONDX total returns, probably not what many would expect to view
    Hey, I received this one as a self-requested Christmas present. Geez, @Ted ; we're a little bit alike, eh?
    "A Field Guide to Lies, Critical Thinking in the Information Age"
    https://www.amazon.com/Field-Guide-Lies-Critical-Information/dp/1524702528
  • SPY vs PONDX total returns, probably not what many would expect to view
    The chart example is/was as intended. One must pay attention to how data is expressed, used and shown. A constant problem today in many circles where one hears verbal and the question remains; show me the data.
    Y'all will receive an award in the mail as soon as you provide your home address to me. :)
    A few adds: Taking the same chart and pulling 2 sections.
    ---This chart section is from the very bottom of the equity market melt to date; although this (the bottom) was not yet known and there remained many folks who were still attempting to remove the stains from their shorts, including Ben Bernanke, Timmy "TurboTax" Geithner and some folks I personally know.
    March, 2009 - Jan. 29, 2018 (Apologies, previous chart did not set early date properly)
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,PONDX&n=2238&O=011000
    ---This 3 year section expresses the gyrations still in place from various factors. Europe still found the Central Bank in austerity mode, and Greece was the word, Japan, well, I don't recall what they were doing and in July of 2011 the U.S., it's/our AAA credit was downgraded one notch. Other than a few other things, almost smooth sailing, yes? The very good traders, including individuals have made a boat load of money since Sept. of 2008!
    Dec. 2010 - Dec. 2013
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,PONDX&l=942&r=1696&O=011000
    ---A wonderful review and new for some here. Clarke and Dawe, two Aussie's who put everything in perspective in 2.5 minutes regarding the "times" then, July, 2010. A must watch, IMHO.

    Has much changed? What say you ???
    Hey, have a great remainder.
    Catch
  • SPY vs PONDX total returns, probably not what many would expect to view
    @MFO Members: Catch22's returns for SPY and PONDX only prove how to to make any point, or lying with statistics. In 2008 SPY returned -(36.81)% while PONDX -(5.79)%. That 31.62% difference skewed his chart. Take out the year 2008, the numbers would look very different.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • LFEQ - gimmicky ETF (with the possibility of downside protection)
    We do not need to invest in LFEQ, but we can follow its allocation to determine market signal. Currently, the fund is 100% in SPY.