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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Annualized Return & The Average Investor
    I was able to access by creating a profile. I was sent a temporary username and password. The presentation (Guide to the Markets) is to be updated quarterly. Thanks for the fnd.
    It seems possible to download one page at a time and then bookmark that page to your browser or then copy the hyperlink within a document file like word or excel.
    Here's one of the slides:
    https://jpmorganfunds.com/blobcontent/856/853/1159397329169_2Q14-GTM-V2-6.png
  • What a difference a week makes....... Time for new ideas such as energy
    I like the pipelines, railroads and while I think energy is best played by a broader fund, I like the energy majors - Conocophillips, Chevron, etc - are mostly reasonable and provide nice dividends.
    The Canadian plays (look at CNQ recently, which I own) are I think going to do VERY well if Keystone is approved. Those can be played via ENY.
    I'll also note that ENY is at a 52 wk high.
  • iShares Nasdaq Biotech Index See Record Record $372M Redemption
    There might be a good technical trade opportunity coming up for IBB to get in.
    Set up stop (219) limit (225) buy and if that executes a stop sell at around 216 in case it breaks through the 200 SMA with a broad market decline. Upside 8% to 20%+. Downside 4-5%.
    High potential for a low around 220.
  • Japan's been killing me. Should I hold on?
    MJFOX is a good fund but they cannot beat Japan Inc. :-)
    Japan is looking very broken technically and in a downtrend but with frequent bounce backs. Fundamentally, they did well earlier with a weakening Yen with Abenomics but that is not working any more. So unless the Yen starts to weaken again, I don't see sustainable growth. Not sure how they can pull it off.
    If you wanted to get out of it in current trading range, it is currently about 2% below the next potential high (around 16) and about 3% above the next low (around 15.14) it is currently heading towards. Pick your exit point accordingly.
    I wouldn't recommend a pure Japan fund as a long term buy and hold. Great for momentum players only. Developed markets fund with exposure to Japan is a better diversified core choice.
  • A Winning Fund Manager Makes Bold Bet On Gold
    Brian Rogers (T Rowe Price) also placed a bet on gold this year. In the Barron's Round Table, he recommended Newmont.
    Before reading that article, I had expressed my opinion on the Discussions Board that gold would keep falling. But after I read that Rogers had placed a bet on gold, I did as well.
    Needless to say, Rogers didn't put 25% of his fund in gold. I didn't either. That would be way too risky.
  • A Muni Fund That Pays More
    The basic logic (my logic) is that longer duration bond funds will "fall and settle" at a greater magnitude than shorter duration bond funds. Timing doesn't have to be perfect, but to trigger this trade longer duration bonds need to first "fall through" shorter duration bonds.
    I use short term charts to monitor this dynamic. Hold the shorter duration bond fund or cash until the longer duration fund "falls through" the the shorter duration fund and the two funds "settle". Part of this settling process involves the bond fund manager buying newer muni issues at hopefully higher interest rates. Depending on where the FED targets interest rates hikes (Short), (Intermediate), or (long) will impact the rates on new bonds.
    image
  • A Muni Fund That Pays More
    A buy/sell strategy I am trying to implement has me holding shorter duration bonds just before rates raise, wait for the longer duration bond fund to adjust downward and then hold the longer duration bond fund as it recovers.
    This can be accomplished with USATX (longer duration) mentioned in the article and USSTX (shorter duration) muni funds. Longer duration munis are more sensitive to interest rate and so I monitor USATX downward movement as it absorbs losses from an interest rate hike.
    The last time interest rates moved upwards (April 2013) USATX adjusted downward 4% and it took about a year for it to make up those losses. I try to strategically hold USSTX prior to a rate hike and then buy USATX at the point where USATX starts to recover from its losses.
    Here's an illustration of the last year using these two funds. USATX gained four percent over the last 6 months and it is potentially time right now to exchange USATX back into USSTX netting the a four percent gain.
    image
    Long term, its hard to beat USAA muni funds USSTX, USATX, and USTEX:
    image
  • Art Cashin: Market's Oversold
    Perhaps if you were a short term trader and trade the weekly wigglies. Longer term, it has come back to mid channel from overbought conditions.
    However, both terms indicate a bounce back from resistance for SPY around 184 so short term traders might exploit that. But if it breaks down through that from its sideways movement since Mar, we may see it oversold to around 176 which is roughly another 5% correction. At least that is what technical traders think.
  • Whitebox Funds.....how do you use them?
    I have been around a long time, and I still do not get why market neutral funds have to be so expensive. Fund managers will tell you that the marketing arm, not the fund management arm, make the ultimate decisions on expenses. Plus, how can anyone think WBLSX is market neutral with such truly wild returns since inception? 12%, 21%, 57%, -19%, 53%, -5%, 1%, 6%, 11%. This is NOT market neutral type behavior. On the other hand, it might explain the high expenses.
  • Follow-up question from March commentary (NOLCX)
    Near the end of the March 14 commentary, David parenthetically referred to NOLCX as a "Nice little fund, by the way." I was hoping someone might elaborate on that a little - try to help me identify possible holes in how I research funds. When I look at NOLCX, I see a fund with only $25M that still manages to have over 100 large cap stocks and an 86% turnover. Only holdings greater than 2% are Exxon, Apple, Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson, and Chevron. Thoughts?
  • Grokking and other personal investing (fund) theories.....
    Good Day from "try'in to be springtime in Michigan, still".
    Grokking. Likely known by many other words, terms and philosophies.
    From Robert A. Heinlein's book, "Stranger in a Strange Land":
    "According to the book, drinking is a central focus on Mars, where water is scarce. Martians use the merging of their bodies with water as a simple example or symbol of how two entities can combine to create a new reality greater than the sum of its parts. The water becomes part of the drinker, and the drinker part of the water. Both grok each other. Things that once had separate realities become entangled in the same experiences, goals, history, and purpose."
    To GROK, per Robert A. Heinlein, 1961
    So, what in the world does, to grok or grokking; have to do with investing? I must borrow and adjust Mr. Heinlein's statement to: "The investor becomes part of the investment, and the investment part of the investor. Both grok each other. Things that once had separate realities become entangled in the same experiences, goals, history, and purpose."
    There may be 1,000 basic directions with which to journey in a discussion about any such investing philosophy. The total is at least as many as those who post and/or visit MFO to read. For every 1,000 here at MFO who have a similar investing style; none of us will totally agree upon what an aggressive, moderate or conservative portfolio may consist.
    To preface what follows; I must assume that there will be folks here who will: agree, somewhat agree, totally disagree; won't understand, presume that I have S.A.D. (Seasonal Affective Disorder) from the too long Michigan winter or lastly; that I have ordered and am testing the "baggy sampler" from the menu at a MaryJane store in Colorado. :)
    The grokking thing. I have referred to this here before; but my replacement word has been, intuition. As we upright walking creatures are similar; we are also different, due to our birth genetics and the "to-date" life experiences which shape our thinking processes. With this comes the vast variable of what one's intuition may be at any given time.
    I can not dismiss intuition from any number of areas of one's life. I only know that one intuition that I feel most comfortable with, involves investing; more often than not, to the profitable side.
    I can not pinpoint anything, in particular, from the first 20 years of my life that would draw my interest to investments. I only recall that in 1971, I discovered an awareness of the ability and possible methods with which to use my hard earned monies to gain further monetary rewards.
    Ten thousand hours to a better understanding? This is the near equivalent to a full, 40 hour work week for a 5 year time frame. The theory being, that one may come close to and/or achieve a near mastery of an area of study, assuming near normal mental or physical attributes. 'Course, some areas may be scratched from the list, early on, for many of us. In spite of any given passions, I have never had the physical build to be a basketball, football or baseball player of any consequence. Long distance, endurance running suits my physical ability.
    The passion of it all. The passion, for whatever it is or may mean to anyone, is a most important aspect, at least for me; for this investing game. I do not attempt to explain passion to myself or dwell upon how this exists in we humans. I accept the feeling or desire, plain and simple, for what it brings forth.
    Periodically, I wonder, with a smile upon my face; how did I arrive at this investing place today, in my life?
    Passion, 10,000+ hours of study, and intuition/grokking.
    As noted previous, I don't recall a real starting point regarding investing or how it arrived. I may only consider today that a passion came forth regarding investing, which places me here today. Without this, I wouldn't know or care about the existence of MFO and related investing sites and information.
    The important (to our house) things I/we feel we understand over the many years (35) regarding investing.
    ---A very early and never forgotten impression of the value of compounding one's monies over the many time periods going forward. This also goes hand and hand with captial preservation, regardless of age or current money earning power from employment or other sources. Obviously, one can not compound monies that are no longer in their investment basket.
    ---Patience, an area of emotions, may also be a most difficult personal area, with which most ,likely do battle. Our house manages this area to the healthy side of investing.
    ---We do not generally hold cash for investment opportunities. We attempt to guage investment opportunity money as requiring to move money from one sector/area to another, as a trend may indicate.
    ---Rebalancing the portfolio. We don't pick or have a magic date to rebalance our portfolio holdings. If an area of the portfolio continues to move in the wrong direction; than that portion of monies will travel elsewhere.
    ---Portfolio monitoring. Aside from viewing markets overall, we do monitor; at least weekly, how any of our holdings are performing.
    ---Knowing what we don't know or fully understand. We understand our limitations of learning; when we have hit a wall of full understanding. We are comfortable with this; as decent portfolios and profits may be had without an overly complicated investor theory or management style.
    ---Personal monitoring. :) Being or becoming overconfident with the knowledge and intuition, that could cause problems with investments.
    Investing concerns for this house must be with the broad markets of all forms and sectors; where we place our monies. However, the final decisions always remain with us, for our monies. Hopefully, I/we will recognize if and when the passion, intuition and our other investing standards start to fade. This could be the beginning of a greater concern for portfolio construction and performance.
    Short summary for the personal side: passion, then study, then the intuition.
    Lastly, as our house can't predict the investment marketplace; we work hard to predict ourselves and our reactions to the marketplace.
    My quick review of this finds a bit of wandering and what seems to be some disconnected writing. No time for a fix and I'll let this stand, as is.
    Thanks for letting me steal some of your time to ramble these thoughts. Perhaps there was something worthy to "grok".
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
  • Looking for thoughts on Davenport & Company Funds
    Anyone have experience with this financial management company out of Richmond, VA? They have three in-house funds. The oldest is DAVPX. Two new ones recently got their first morningstar ratings: DEOPX and DVIPX. All fairly small ($100-300M) and 30-50 holdings. Styles are LG, LV, and MG (which looks more all-cap).