From a recent Jeff Saut (Raymond James) article I reference this passage and a possible endorsement for equity inflation in 2017:
Our sense is the new administration will not be able to get the corporate tax rate down to 15%, but even at a 25% rate, it implies an additional $13.10 to the S&P 500’s bottom up operating earnings number ($1.31 x 10 = $13.10). Using Bob’s same math produces an earnings estimate of $144.10, and at 17 times earnings, it renders a price objective of roughly 2450 for the S&P 500.
Article:
Serenity now?

Hi Crash - Glad you brought this thread back to life. Lack of earlier responses may relate to some ambiguity among readers about just what your investment approach is. I'm curious how many years before you begin distributions and whether that will affect your fund selection? I'm also a bit confused from past posts about just what you already own. At times you've seemed to be very heavy into real estate funds along with EM equities and bonds. Recently you mentioned some investments in PRLAX (a fund I think more appropriate for timing and speculation rather than long term commitment).
At one point a few years ago I thought you had moved all your invested assets to T. Rowe Price (great manager). And I know you like PRWCX. This last one has gotten very conservative recently and this year seriously lags a couple funds it is often compared to: DODBX and OAKBX. Manager is likely dealing with a huge inflow of $$ both before and after the soft close. But over 5 years it still sports a great risk adjusted return. It would be really interesting to hear what type of allocation model you adhere to and how you are positioned by asset class (as opposed to a list of individual funds.)
RE MOWNX (Investor Class): It has 1.65% ER after waiviers. That's very high for a value fund - even taking into consideration its international component. Concentrated funds tend to live and die by the sword - meaning they can rocket to fantastic heights or fall off steep cliffs. (Sometimes they accomplish both feats in relatively short order.) :) Not saying not to invest in one - just beware.

2 questions for Junkster if you don't mind.
BXFYX looks to be a pretty small fund (100mil). Do you worry about when you exit, you will get hammered with your exit price since it sounds like you have a fair amount invested?
Seems like you are in capital preservation mode but if you were trading today for max capital appreciation, what area of the market would you look for a trade?
Thanks!

Re BXFYX, the bank loan category has been the epitome of a tight rising channel since the February bottom. The size/assets of an open end fund isn't prone to the volatility of say an ETF where you can get hammered. To me getting hammered would be a 1% daily decline so not worried about that while this category is in a bull phase.
While I am in a capital preservation mode, my main focus this year has been to still try to beat the S&P (while trading bonds) and so far this year have accomplished that. However as the S&P is closing in on me have gone from 100% bank loan to 80% with the other 20% in junk corporates (IVHIX) I may increase that 20% if warranted. As to what I would be trading were I younger and more hungry I really can't answer that. Obviously small cap value has been the place to be but really haven't looked at any funds there. While I would never ever buy a groupthink fund recommended on this board or any other, I must say DSENX sure has performed well.
The equity optimism on 2017 has been a bit worried. Kind of reminiscent of all the optimism on this board regarding healthcare/biotech in 2015. But then I always worry.

Hi @Nick_de_Peyster,
Thanks for making comment and raising questions about inflation.
As Ted points out I'm thinking for most of 2017 will be good for stocks.
Skeet

Hi @Ted,
Thanks for making comment.
I tend to agree with you about inflation not being of much concern through much of 2017. But, I'm thinking now might a good time to start planning for inflation. At least that is what I'm doing within my own portfolio. Thus, I have begun a study of what I already owned and what I might wish to add before these inflation fightiing assets become the darlings of many investors. I'm wanting to do this before these asset classes get run up in price. Look what recently happened with financials and small caps. Not, presently buying more of these asset classes.
But, I also understand each of us have different risk tolerances, needs and goals.
I'm thinking there are some asset classes that I feel can serve multiple purposes within a portfolio and these are the ones I'll center my focus on more so than pure inflation protection securities. With this, I'm lookings at adding to my materials, energy and industrial sector holdings as I have ample coverage in utilities and real estate.
Skeet

FYI:
State retirement plans for workers fed up with fees, returns.
University endowments also redeeming, negotiating better terms.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-15/hedge-fund-love-affair-is-ending-for-u-s-pensions-endowments

@MFO Members: I don't see inflation as any problem in 2017. Next year is all about equities, equities and more equities. The only question will it be large, mid, or small cap equities.
Rggards,
Ted

I look at PRDAX and see its 1-star rating. I start thinking, maybe it is "timing" buy now. Then I see "risk" bar and it is all red.
I have long wondered how unbiased M* research is and especially when I see load funds recommended.
I own a smattering GLRBX in the same category, and have been contemplating adding to it. Now I think I will. Just offering an alternative for comparison.

@openice, thanks for the summary but did they have multiple calls this morning? I don't recall some of the details you mentioned on the call I participated in, but maybe I wasn't as effective at multi-tasking as I'd like. They certainly didn't contradict anything you've mentioned but it sounds like there was a more interesting discussion about her plans and her experience at Wasatch.
IIRC, GP is going to take care of the back office for her and I believe she's also going to use their trading desk. I wonder, for that 10% overlap or when they're both interested in a stock and there isn't enough liquidity for both to do all their buying or selling at once, who trades first?

Look at the average market cap of Wasatch International Opportunities:
portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=WAIOX&region=usa&culture=en_US
If my memory is correct, it has historically had one of the lower average market caps of foreign small funds, certainly lower than $1.5 billion, currently about half that level. By contrast the Wasatch emerging markets fund has a significantly higher market cap:
portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=WAEMX
The same is true for the frontier emerging markets fund:
portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=WAFMX
All of which is to say in emerging markets her new funds will be interesting and maybe better than her previous charges. But in a broader international fund or global fund, it is much less certain. But this may be more than just about a partnership and competitive overlap. It may also involve a significant lifestyle change. Researching tiny stocks can be extremely time consuming and require tremendous air travel. As a manager ages, I can't imagine that continues to be fun for long. Also, starting one's own money management firm by itself is a significant lifestyle change. You have to now be a CEO and a money manager. So I think the jury will be out on a global or international fund for me. They could be great, but they are certainly not the same as WAIOX.

I participated in the conference call this morning with GP and found it comprehensive and informative. It included the introduction of Laura Geritz, the reasons for her partnership with GP, and most of all her presenting details about her investment background and historical investing style.
I asked if holding smaller companies in her Rondure all cap portfolios will be competitive with GP and if her concentration in companies above 1.5B would be sacrificing the talent that she had shown at Wasatch -- two issues that have been raised here.
She said that the issue of competition was discussed at the very beginning with GP and that the partnership is seen as a collaborative effort that would far outweigh any competitive issue.
Regarding the second question, earlier in the call she mentioned that her previous background includes considerable experience in investing in what she called "the 800 pound gorilla type of companies," adding that she included companies of this size in both the small cap emerging markets fund and the frontier fund at Wasatch. She is very comfortable investing in companies of this size.
Also, in reference to this question, one GP team member said that GP's investing in companies below 1.5B poses liquidity issues and that buying companies above that amount would offer plenty of liquidity. Another team member said that they like to tease Laura about their liking to invest in companies growing faster than hers.
Two last comments about these questions from GP was that they work better together than apart (mentioned above), that she has already pitched them ideas, and that if one looks at the GP Stalwart funds (which do invest in companies above 1.5B), that what Laura has proposed to own has only a 10% overlap with what the Stalwarts own now.
Anyone having further questions can email GP, they said.
I hope this helps.

In April of 2017, I'll have been in MSCFX (small-cap BLEND) for 5 years. Now it's closed to new investors. When it opens-up again, it bears a hard look from folks who are not yet into it. I feed profits from this fund into MAPOX, which is one of my two less volatile portfolio anchors. PRWCX is the other. (Another closed fund. I have people here on this discussion board to thank for this.)

@MrRuffles: Excellent article that goes with earlier links on the subject.
Regards,
Ted
Regards,
Ted
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/30517/vanguard-fires-chartwell-owner-of-berwyn-funds#latest

FYI: Pimco Total Return Fund, once the world’s largest mutual fund under former manager Bill Gross, is now the second-biggest actively managed bond fund as client withdrawals and investment losses reduced holdings
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-05/pimco-total-return-passed-by-metwest-as-largest-active-bond-fund

True small value is so hard to hold. I hope no one is buying TDVFX or AVALX after this run up. If you're going to buy into small value, at least do it when the fund is in a decline like HUSIX, but I couldn't imagine always buying into these when their down for 10 or 20 years, that would take so much discipline.

I was being a bit flippant, and I suspect Edmond was as well. At the same time, one often finds incomplete reasoning or random factoids used to reach what may or may not be correct conclusions (albeit for other reasons).
VF suggests that women are scarce in trucking. As it turns out, Bloomberg had a piece on this a year ago - the industry is having its "Rosie the Riveter" moment - there's such a need for drivers that the industry has had to adapt, making its facilities and practices a bit less sexist.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-01/truckers-smash-stereotypes-with-boost-from-women-out-driving-men
In contrast, I doubt there's a dearth of, say analysts, itching to become money managers. Some of the figures are comparable (5-10% female truckers and female US active fund managers), but the reasons and implications for the respective industries are different.

Edmund makes a good point. If the fund were truly actively managed, the expenses might be justified. But truth is there is very little change in holdings. Some trimming of positions now and then, but very little real change. So when performance lags, as it has 2012-2015, expenses loom even larger. And they have actually increased and are higher now than they were 5 years ago, no doubt because assets have bled more than 80% since 2012.

@ LewisBraham
I posted this link in another post which indicates what she purposes to invest in:
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2016/11/prweb13834644.htm
Excerpt from the article:
"...Ms. Geritz believes the best investments are found within a global context, so Rondure Global will scour the world in search of the most interesting investments. The firm’s investment philosophy is centered around very high quality companies that it believes can provide sustainable returns. It will seek to invest in great companies at good prices and good companies at great prices. "
Based on the excerpt, I suspected she was going to invest in larger companies.
Plus, I didn't think she would invest in small companies as she would be in competition with GP.

Aren't you leaping to conclusions?
- That money managers are married, and
- Their spouses are female.
Not easy to get this sort of data. I did run across these bit of trivia, since you broached the subject:
"We find that single CEOs, who are more likely to exhibit status concerns, are associated with firms that exhibit higher stock return volatility and pursue more aggressive investment policies."
http://fbe.usc.edu/seminars/papers/F_4-8-11_ROUSSANOV-Rev.pdf
This suggests the possibility that spouses (female or otherwise) are not "over quota" but "underrepresented" among gun slinging fund managers.
Better that fund managers should be confirmed bachelors without distractions, since "We find that marriages and divorces are associated with significantly lower fund alpha, during the six-month period surrounding the event and for up to two years after the event."
Limited Attention, Marital Events and Hedge Funds
I suspect that if I look hard enough, I'll find that kids are bad for managing money too. Amazing what useless factoids one can string together.

@Sven, I think domestic equities will likely have a dip at the inauguration, which should be bought. Then hang on through the April or May. The market should be choppy through the summer, and then head up in the fall of 2017. I am bullish on domestic SC/MC equities for the next 3 years, and have 100% of my TSP in the S fund (VXF equivalent).
@davidrmoran, I am comfortable in the process involved with DSEEX, and we continue to have 15% of our portfolio invested in this fund. And JG will likely not allow the FI portion of this fund be a drag on performance, so I am fine with holding this fund in a rising interest rate environment. And if the equity exposure hits a downdraft, the FI portion will be beneficial.
Kevin