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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack : Guest: Charles Ellis: The Index Revolution:
    Ok Ted, I just ordered it from Amazon. 1 cent plus $3.99 shipping. I'm afraid it's going to just be one idea repeated over and over again, but on your recommendation I will give it a chance.
  • The Conflict At The Heart Of U.S. Retirement Plans
    FYI: Last week, yet another slew of private retirement plan managers became the target of class-action lawsuits. This time it was a bunch of universities: Yale University, New York University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and other schools have been sued for failing to properly oversee their employees’ retirement plans.
    The lawyer behind the suits, Jerome Schlichter, has already hit companies for failing to administer their 401(k) plans responsibly; this latest wave of suits targets the so-called 403(b), a form of defined contribution plan used by non-profits like universities that closely resembles the 401(k).
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://wealthmanagement.com/print/retirement-planning/conflict-heart-us-retirement-plans
    InvestmentNews Article:
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160818/FREE/160819927?template=printart
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    @Old_Joe Certainly not offended by you or most comments or posters on this site. I've also been amused quite often by Ted( see below ).But I've also gotten the "woodshed" treatment . I had to search this site for " ship " to recover my January post.Try the search feature for most any topic and notice some of the people that have left the site or rarely add their opinion/investment experiences. As far as I'm concerned, we've lost some people that added to discussions such as this one.I thought Ted's comment in this discussion a bit condescending.
    @Old_Joe
    PS Watching the Giants. 30 hits ! Bumgarner vs De Grom ? Dodger/Giant rivalry alive and well. The "Bum" vs the Bums .
    @Ted said 'Just remember, every ship at the bottom of the ocean has a chart room !'
    One of your better ones Ted They found another one ! And the chartists are more bearish by the .... hour?
    image
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/73731/#Comment_73731
    by ALEXANDER SMITH JAN 13 2016, 8:19 AM ET
    Experts hunting for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 have discovered wreckage on the seabed. However, it's at least 100 years old and has nothing to do with the missing jet
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    @Old_Joe
    It took a page and 1/2 and 50 @Ted posts to generate the over 480 views in this post.I had to go to page three to count 43 comments to @Ted's constant posting of basically the same old same old.While you and Ted may have a valid point in advising a mainstream approach to investing, if we all sat around a campfire and discussed SPY,TLT,various Fidelity,Vanguard,Schwab etc funds,I'll go in the woods for some sticks to roast the marshmallows.And we wouldn't need this website to exchange investment ideas that seem to interest people .
  • Anyone have a good biotech fund?
    @rforno ,thanks for the reminder.
    @ep1
    Type in - hqh- in this site's search box for some fellow poster's reviews and discussions concerning bio/health including @scott who usually gave us pertinent info on some long term investment ideas.
    From just over a year ago,
    "Why not HQL? Just sit back and collect the div. Can also invest in private companies."
    Thanks @scott. I had forgotten about that one. Definitely worth a look.
    CNCR
    Smaller fund to watch with this initiative?
    The Obama administration has launched a "moonshot" to cure cancer. What are the chances of success? Here's everything you need to know:
    http://theweek.com/articles/623940/new-war-cancer
    http://www.etf.com/CNCR
    http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/cancer-etf-redefines-biotech-investing?nopaging=1
    I own ETNHX in this space. ETNHX 3 YR Standard Deviation 30.75 Like most in Bio,Volitile!
    From Fact Sheet:
    Industry Allocation‡ % of portfolio
    Biotech 68.54
    Pharmaceuticals 13.10
    Healthcare Tech. 6.60
    Healthcare Equip. 4.82
    Other (cash ) 7.00
    http://eventidefunds.com/wp-content/uploads/Eventide-Healthcare-Life-Sciences-Fund-Fact-Sheet-06-30-2016.pdf
    On the debt side, do your due diligence here.I own HTGC ,mostly for the dividend ( re-invested ). Caution, trading above book.
    http://www.htgc.com/portfoliolisting.asp?SectorID=5
  • ‘the biggest bond bubble’ ever
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-hedge-fund-honcho-paul-singer-is-calling-this-the-biggest-bond-bubble-ever-2016-08-18
    What will make it pop? "What’s the big worry? A sudden move in rates that in a crowded trade could leave investors with brutal losses." What would cause a sudden move in rates?
    I'm not saying it won't happen I'm just looking for the signs it is on the road to happen.
    The classical reasons - shortage of materials, labor, capital to meet demand are not there.
    High oil prices? That has happened and there wasn't a ripple effect.
    The only thing I can think about is a large war. Not like the 16 year we have been fighting - more like Vietnam.
    Thoughts?
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    @davidmoran - One of the things people don't pay enough attention to when looking at tax efficiency is what one gets, after-tax, when cashing out.
    Though DSENX appears to have a similar tax cost to LCV long term figures (in the 1.5% ballpark), this is not taking into account the hidden tax liability it's carrying due to NAV appreciation. In contrast to DSENX, the LCV funds are not carrying the same untaxed appreciation. That makes DSENX less tax efficient as I'll explain below.
    First a simple example - compare a savings bond with a hypothetical fund, both returning 5% pre-tax. Savings bond interest is tax-deferred until the bond is cashed out. We'll assume that our fund generates only long term gains, but that it recognizes all of its gains annually. So if it starts with $100, at the end of the year it's made $5 in cap gains, on which $1 tax is paid (20% top rate, ignoring Medicare surtax), and has only $104 invested going forward.
    If the investor cashes out at the end of ten years, the savings bond will have appreciated to $169.89, but after paying 39.6% taxes on the $69.89 gain, is left with only $138 (well, $137.99). The fund, which was tax-inefficient (distributing 100% of its gains yearly) is worth $148 (okay, $148.02). Since taxes were paid on appreciation as it went along, there are no gains recognized on the sale.
    The totally inefficient fund came out way ahead, because although it kept distributing income, that was low tax rate income.
    What you're seeing with DSENX isn't quite as stark, but similar. The LCV funds are distributing most of their income, but that tends to be lower-tax rate qualified divs. DSENX has a similar total return, but is distributing a smaller portion of its total return. Like the savings bond, it has a greater tax liability when cashed out than do the LCV funds which are more similar to the dividend paying hypothetical fund.
    Even though DSENX is paying out a smaller percentage of its total return, the tax on that payout (tax cost) is similar to the tax on the LCV distributions. That's because the DSENX distributions come from bonds, and are thus taxed mostly at the higher ordinary income tax rate.
    That's the key to the tax inefficiency of funds like this. They take what ought to be a tax-efficient investment (long term stock holdings) and mimic its total return, but in a tax-inefficient way (using bonds).
    FWIW, Fidelity reports that the long term (10 year) tax cost ratio for LCV funds is 1.12%, less than the 1.5 ballpark I suggested above.
    ---
    Briefly, why I don't like ETNs' risk - they're effectively bonds of a single issuer. If you were investing in bonds, would you put so much money into the bonds of one company, or would you diversify? Why or why not? What if you really, really trusted that one company?
    It's similar but not identical to a risk in buying insurance (you're just another creditor to the insurance company). But with insurance, regulators see to it that the company has a certain level of reserves, and there are also state guarantee funds. No such controls or backstops here.
  • Anyone have a good biotech fund?
    ep1:FYI: 1. Fidelity Select Biotechnology Portfolio: (FBIOX)
    2. T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund: (PRHSX)
    3 . Janus Global Life Sciences Fund: (JAGLX)
    4. Franklin Biotechnology Discovery Fund: (FBDIX)
    5. IShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index: (IBB
    Regards,
    Ted
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    @msf
    >> DSENX or any of its ilk belongs strictly in a tax-sheltered account. Holding bonds in lieu of equity, their tax efficiency is horrendous.
    Fido shows before- vs after-tax delta to be no worse than LV category (to the contrary, in fact), unless I misread. Incorrect?
    See
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/258620814
    PSTKX slightly lags SP500 since Nov 2013 while DSENX outperforms handily.
    Before 4y ago, though, PSTKX outperforms, as you noted. I wonder why the crossing for the last 4y. You anticipate that that outperformance should resume, sounds like.
    Finally, is CAPE etn worry, and trading difficulty, actual?
  • John Waggoner: Vanguard, The King Of Passive Investing, Hops On Board The Active ETF Train
    FYI:Vanguard, where the world goes to catch a ride on index funds, is building a new station for actively managed exchange-traded funds.
    In a recent filing the with Securities and Exchange Commission, the Valley Forge, Pa., fund giant asked for exemptive relief for offering actively managed ETFs. “This application gives us the flexibility to offer actively managed strategies,” said Vanguard spokeswoman Katie Hirt. “We're making sure we're set up in the future to provide that flexibility
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160817/FREE/160819933?template=printart
    WSJ Article:
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/vanguard-asks-sec-to-approve-an-active-etf-for-u-s-1471458390
  • Edward Jones Shakes Up Retirement Offerings Ahead Of Fiduciary Rule
    FYI: Edward Jones unveiled how it will serve retirement savers in light of new federal rules governing brokers, showing it will curtail mutual-fund access for retirement savers in accounts that charge commissions and slash investment minimums on others
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/edward-jones-shakes-up-retirement-offerings-ahead-of-fiduciary-rule-1471469692
  • Deja vu ? Fidelity Was A Big Second-Quarter Buyer Of Valeant Shares
    The Boston-based mutual-fund giant, which holds Valeant’s stock in a number of its funds, sharply boosted its holdings in the second quarter
    Valeant's stock is taking a beating as their reported earnings being questioned while the company is being investigated for their business practice. Is this something that will blow over or double down while the price is good. YTD of Fido Biotech is down 16.8% while Vanguard Health Care is down only 0.1%.
  • M*: These Funds Are Oldies But Goodies
    FYI: Even though they're 65-plus, these funds still make the short list for Morningstar's analysts.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=765114
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    So far, DSENX has done what it has promised. It is one of a class of funds typically offered by bond houses (e.g. MetWest, PIMCO, DoubleLine) where the sponsor tries to apply its bond expertise to the equity market via derivatives.
    Looking at a funds like PSTKX, it seems that it is possible to add some value above an index. PSTKX long term (15 years) has added about 40 basis pts/year. According to its prospectus, DSENX has added about half that (per year) for its first 26 months of existence (through December 2015). It has done much better in 2016, though.
    So the performance (relative to an index) may be sustainable, especially with a good bond fund manager. But there is risk in the technique, which can have short term blowups. In contrast, an ETN by design has no tracking risk (beyond bid/ask spread). But it does have credit risk (backed only by its sponsor, not with any real securities in a portfolio).
    I'm no fan of ETNs, so on that basis alone I'd take DSENX over CAPE. But that's me.
    DSENX or any of its ilk belongs strictly in a tax-sheltered account. Holding bonds in lieu of equity, their tax efficiency is horrendous. In contrast, stock and bond ETNs are supposed to be extremely tax efficient (more so than ETFs). So that could tip the balance the other way in a taxable account.
    Have I equivocated sufficiently? :-)
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    >> the fund has beaten this index also since inception, but by a much smaller margin,
    Yeah, ~3.6% and ~4.1% (DSEEX) in toto since Nov '13 is the value the bond sauce has added, by my calculation. So is it worth it over CAPE?
    Interesting they do not do the factsheet indexing right.
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    The fact sheet and prospectus both state that "The Fund’s investment objective is to seek total return which exceeds the total return of its benchmark index."
    The fact sheet goes further to claim that the benchmark is the S&P 500. (In case there's any doubt, the benchmark returns it gives are S&P 500 performance figures.) But that's not the index the fund's designed to beat.
    The prospectus states clearly: "The Fund seeks total return (capital appreciation and current income) in excess of the Shiller Barclays CAPE® US Sector TR USD Index (the “Index")."
    This is important because it means that if one is comparing performance with the S&P 500, one is making the wrong comparison. The prospectus gives comparisons against both the S&P 500 and the CAPE® index. The fact sheet's omission of CAPE® index figures strikes me as downright deceptive.
    Similarly, the webcast page shows the fund handily beating the S&P 500 since inception, but doesn't give performance figures for the CAPE® index that it is tracking. It is true that the fund has beaten this index also since inception, but by a much smaller margin, and the fund fell short in 2015.
    Beating the true index that a fund is "enhancing" is what's hard. It's why AlphaTrak for example is just slightly ahead of its benchmark index (which really is the S&P 500 for that fund) over five years, while slightly behind over 10 and 15 years.
    The whole thing strikes me as similar to corporations reporting adjusted EBITDA instead of GAAP. If you want objective facts and figures, you need to go to the standardized, legal documents.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-08/wsj-looks-non-gaap-earnings-horrified-what-it-finds
  • "Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio
    Here is a 2 page recap of a Feb. webcast DSENX. A good overview and explanation of the methodology used in the DSENX strategy.
    Jeffrey Sherman – Shiller Enhanced CAPE® webcast titled
    “A + B = C”
    Tuesday, February 9th, 2016
    http://doublelinefunds.com/pdf/2-9-16_Webcast_Recap.pdf
    Latest fact sheet dated July 31.2016
    http://www.doublelinefunds.com/wp-content/uploads/shiller-enhanced-cape-fact-sheet.pdf
  • MSCFX (news item)
    ...And I note that it owns Buffalo Wild Wings. Some hedge fund or something with influence wants to clean house at BWW and get a new head honcho and board, I noted today on tv. I got into MSCFX in April, 2012. A VERY fortunate selection. Exceeding all expectations.
  • Chuck Jaffe: Whatever Happened To The Heavyweight Mutual Fund Managers?
    I suspect the proliferation of ETFs, ETNs, and particularly the "enhanced" versions (3X bull, 3X bear, etc.) has made the star manager a relic. I for one wish the financial press would not list ETFs alongside MFs when highlighting the quarterly, yearly, and longer performance figures. If gold rose during the last quarter, of what utility is to the average investor to see some ETF on anabolic steroids at the top of the performance ranking for all funds? What use is it to show that bearish ETFs top the list of 10-year losers? These days, such lists do not reveal talented managers. Old-timers like me enjoy poring over MF statistics the way I studied MLB stats as a kid. Unfortunately, what appears in the NYT, WSJ, and Barron's these days is dreck contaminated by funds most investors ought never touch.