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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Era Of Low Interest Rates Hammers Millions Of Pensions Around World
    @Ted. Thank you for the link.
    My biggest take away from some of the words related to some of the pension funds is that; let us (pension fund managers) blame the sad state of affairs of gains since the market melt 9 years ago on low yields. The pension funds are going to run out of money and/or be forced to reduce future benefits or BOTH. Hell yes, they are and will. Guess that underfunding doesn't help much either, eh?
    From the article:
    Government-bond yields have risen since Donald Trump was elected U.S. president, though few investors expect a prolonged climb. Regardless, the ultralow bond yields of recent years have already hindered the most straightforward way for retirement funds to recover—through investment gains.
    >>> So, no investment gains from price appreciation that many bond types have had over the past nine years??? Ya, right! If these managers have not made money from bonds in past years, they need to find new work. Losses in other investment areas have likely offset bond price gains.
    From the article:
    Pension officials and government leaders are left with vexing choices. As investors, they have to stash away more than they did before or pile into riskier bets in hedge funds, private equity or commodities. Countries, states and cities must decide whether to reduce benefits for existing workers, cut back public services or raise taxes to pay for the bulging obligations.
    >>>Prior discussions and links here at MFO have indicated performance problems with many large pension funds. Perhaps that should have invested in something like VWINX and/or a simple 50/50 equity/bond mix with 4 holdings.
    Educated, smart folks; who are not the sharpest tools in the investment world shed! Perhaps hire a few more hedge fund managers.......oh, wait; these managers are being fired by numerous funds!
    10 year annualized returns sampler on the simple side of investment life:
    --- IEF = 5.5%
    --- TLT = 6.7%
    --- LQD = 5.5%
    --- TIP = 4.1% (even the lowly regarded TIP is far above this percentage using simple moving averages for buys and sells)
    --- VTI = 7.1%
    --- SPY = 6.8%
    --- IWM = 6.7%
    --- QQQ = 11.4%
    --- VWINX = 6.7%
    Pick any 4 of the above and one still finds an average of about 6.2% annualized over 10 years. Yes, I know; not much diworsifiers in the above choices. Build your own pension fund and post here, eh?
    Problems with the future of many pension funds and survival are real. Problems with this also result from the skill set of much of the management(s).
    Other than these, all is well with the world.
    ...etf ticker highlight test IEF QQQ
    Take care,
    Catch
  • A Tale Of Two Investors
    FYI: Next week I will have the distinct pleasure of joining a distinguished cadre of financial advisors, institutional investors, asset managers, journalists and fellow bloggers in New York City for the inaugural Evidence Based Investing Conference. It’s rare to come across a conference where you are just as excited about the attendee list as you are the speakers, but the folks organizing this event have done just that. For the uninitiated, the conference website provides a (working) definition of the phrase:
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://bpsandpieces.com/2016/11/08/a-tale-of-two-investors/
  • Era Of Low Interest Rates Hammers Millions Of Pensions Around World
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search:)
    Central bankers lowered interest rates to near zero or below to try to revive their gasping economies. In the process, though, they have put in jeopardy the pensions of more than 100 million government workers and retirees around the globe.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/#q=Era+of+Low+Interest+Rates+Hammers+Millions+of+Pensions+Around+World+wsj
  • BILTX DL Infrastructure
    According to the fact sheet, 1/3 is project financing, which is more or less the taxable equivalent of what I was describing with muni revenue bonds. That is indeed different from corporate financing.
    In contrast, structured products are basically debt issued by a corporation with a synthesized risk/reward profile. A simple example is a principal protected (aka equity-linked) note. ETNs are another example of structured products. They can get much more complex.
    The point is, there is an issuer (usually a corporation) and these are obligations of that issuer. These are forms of corporate debt. FWIW, that's also the way M* counts them (it says 2/3 of the portfolio is corporate debt).
    Some of the target allocations and similar information described in the Core-Solution doc don't appear in the prospectus. So I'm not sure they represent much more than a hope. In contrast, the target credit range of BB-BBB is somewhat represented in the prospectus, that states that the fund intends to invest over half its assets in investment grade investments.
  • Did I miss the memo? Emerging Markets Bonds
    That after what occurred in Treasuries yesterday. The rout in Treasuries since their most recent bottom (BREXIT) would qualify as a major rout in so short of a time.
    Foretold here and posted on this site. I'm watching high yield bonds for an entry point. This move has nothing to do with the reality of the the USA/world economy. This move may go on until after the state of the union speech.
    The emerging markets action is probably more a factor of a stronger US$, which is due to the increase in treasury yields. If anything, the higher US$, if it continues, will slow the US economy due to lower exports. Then the pressure should be for lower rates!
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/petertchir/2016/10/22/the-scariest-chart-for-bond-yields/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix&yptr=yahoo#69616508ed70
  • Gundlach: Bond Yields Could Hit 6% In Five Years
    Reminder
    Gundlach to host his first post election webcast Tue November 15th
    DoubleLine Asset Allocation - Core Fixed Income & Flexible Income Live Webcast
    hosted by Jeffrey Gundlach
    Tuesday, November 15, 2016 1:15 pm PT / 4:15 pm ET / 3:15 pm CT
    Register here:
    https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1085785
  • John Bogle: A Savings Innovation And Philosophy That Remain Relevant
    Hi Guys,
    We should all be thankful of what John Bogle has meant to the mutual fund industry. His contributions go beyond smart. They are wise. Yet he remains a humble man with a set of investment rules that are general and simple. Here is a list of his 10 rules as presented in the referenced article:
    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/john-bogles-10-rules-of-investing/
    Good stuff! I'm sure you guys are all familiar with these rules and likely deploy many of them while managing your portfolios. It's a great confidence booster when a financial wizard of Bogle's status adds his approval to rules that you probably apply.
    These common sense rules carry weight for both active and passive investors. Not unexpectedly, cost control and patience are crucial elements in the rule set.
    Best Wishes.
  • Grandeur Peak - I called it!
    Here is an excerpt from GP's letter to avoid any potential misunderstandings:
    Rondure Global Advisors
    Perhaps the most exciting announcement is the formation of a new joint venture with industry veteran Laura Geritz (CFA, MA). We worked with Laura for a number of years at Wasatch Advisors. She announced her departure from Wasatch earlier this year. When we learned of her decision to leave Wasatch we jumped at the chance to talk with her about the possibility of working together again. Just last week we jointly formed a new investment firm named Rondure Global Advisors.
    Laura has a strong track record of performance for her clients. She played a key role as a lead portfolio manager on the Wasatch Emerging Markets Small Cap Fund, the Wasatch International Opportunities Fund, and as the founding PM on the Wasatch Frontier Emerging Small Countries Fund. Laura is a skilled investor who shares many of the same investment philosophies with us. She’s a bottom-up stock picker doing fundamental analysis focused on quality companies. She’s globally minded and is known for her killer travel schedule because she believes she can understand a company after seeing it on its home turf.
    Laura will be the CEO of Rondure Global Advisors and will launch her own products under that name. She will also hire her own research and client team. Grandeur Peak will provide the back-office and trading support. Rondure will be co-located in the same office with Grandeur Peak, where we will sit side-by-side and work collaboratively. Rondure’s products will be more complementary than competitive with our existing products. I would describe Rondure’s investment focus as more “core” as compared to Grandeur Peak’s “growth” bent, and Rondure will not impact our liquidity constrained products as the new firm will focus on companies above $1.5 billion market-cap.
    Grandeur Peak’s research team will remain focused on our own mission with minimal disruption, while benefitting from the wisdom and experience of a great investor. We’re thrilled to have Laura sitting with us and traveling with us. She brings a perspective that will help us see macro issues better, but what we’re most excited about is simply talking about individual companies with Laura and her team.
    *******My question is she going to start/oversee another frontier market fund as I still own Wasatch's Frontier Emerging Small Countries Fund.
  • John Bogle: A Savings Innovation And Philosophy That Remain Relevant
    FYI: John Clifton Bogle works in a sunny office lined with books, piles of newspapers and research, paintings of Napoleon's battles, and Frederic Remington cowboy sculptures. At 87, he has slowed down only a little.
    Former Vanguard CEO John Bogle.
    "I used to work from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m., but I don't do that anymore," said Bogle, who was ready to greet a reporter at 9 a.m. sharp at Vanguard headquarters in Malvern.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.philly.com/philly/business/20161113_John_Bogle__A_savings_innovation_and_philosophy_that_remain_relevant.html
  • Gundlach: Bond Yields Could Hit 6% In Five Years
    He called the election correctly. I put no stock in that prediction, but I have and do pay close attention to what he says. He sure is savvy. He was on CNBC on Friday, but I missed a good bit of it. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/11/jeff-gundlach-says-fang-stocks-are-a-bubble-buy-financials-on-trump-instead.html
  • Any limits to how far a fund can fall in a single day? Old Thread / New Question / Same Fund
    Hi Guys,
    - I'm a long term investor and do not frequently monitor the value of my portfolio ...
    - Checking a portfolio too often can be hazardous to the overall health of that portfolio.
    (1) Bully for you.
    (2) Baloney. Checking your portfolio won't harm it any more than taking your temperature with a thermometer (pick your entry point of choice) will harm your health.
    But if you insist on repeating this sanctimonious crap enough times, I'll feel obligated to label any future posts I make with a disclaimer that it is "not intended for (your) reading or consumption."
  • Any limits to how far a fund can fall in a single day? Old Thread / New Question / Same Fund
    Yep - Yahoo appears to have had an "off day" Friday when I posted. Lipper is confirming a 7.9% drop for the 11th of Nov. (Friday). When I tried to access my Yahoo tracker this morning (Saturday) I was met with the following:
    Yahoo Will be right back...
    Thank you for your patience.
    Our engineers are working quickly to resolve the issue.

    Sorry for the misleading info. (I thought a lot of their reporting for my own funds seemed off last night as well.) But yes - gold (and gold funds) are getting hammered this week. Not to dismiss the desirability of some limited exposure to the metal (IMHO), but these types of funds are nothing to play around with.
  • U.S. Treasuries Staged A Wild Intraday Swing After The Election
    Hello ...
    For the week ... I have the S&P 500 Index up +3.8% from its 11/4 close of 2085 to its 11/11 close of 2164 while the Lipper Ballanced Index was up +1.4%. For the same period Old_Skeet was up a meer +0.9%. Year-to-date, I lead my bogey 6.5% vs. 5.5% according to Morningstar's Portfolio Manager which I use to track my portfolio's investment returns.
    Folks, for me the important thing is I did not lose money for the week and given that my portfolio is a diviserified one designed to produce income as well as some capital appreciation along the way ... actually, I am quite please with how it performed this past week. I'm thinking it could have been worse from reading that many income investors got hammered.
    My three best performing funds, for the week, were ABSAX +10.45% ... PCVAX +7.50% ... & FDSAX +5.47%
    My three worst performing funds, for the week, were PGUAX -3.21% ... AJVAX -2.65% ... & NEWFX -1.66%.
    According to my Portfolio Equity Weighting Matrix Barometer I need to be currently invested around 48% to 49% equity mark; however, with us now being in the first part of a traditional fall seasonal investment trend I am currently above that at about 51%. I am still with my plan to raise my equity allocation upward by a couple of percent to 53% as we move towards Thanksgiving and remain at this level to around Easter. Naturally, if I begin to see equities breaking down before Easter comes, I will begin a sell down strategy reducing my equity allocation and raising cash by a like amount. My allocation for equities within my portfolio ranges from 45% to 55%. I usually use my matrix as a tool to help govern this allocation plus I usually make allowances for seasonal trends. In short, load equities in the fall and reduce them during the summer months.
    And, so it goes.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Skeet
  • John Waggoner: Investors Flood TIPS Funds As Trump Win Stokes Inflation Concerns
    FYI: Funds that invest in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities saw a net inflow of $1 billion the week ended Nov. 9, the second-largest since records began in 2002, according to Thomson Reuters Lipper. The record inflow was in April 2015.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20161111/FREE/161119987?template=printart
    M*: Inflation-Protected- Bond Returns:
    http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/inflation-protected-bond/$FOCA$IP.aspx
  • Gundlach: Bond Yields Could Hit 6% In Five Years
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    You heard it here first: Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital and one of the world’s most successful bond investors, predicted in January at the Barron’s Roundtable that Donald J. Trump would be the country’s next president, noting, “The populist momentum is unstoppable.”
    Now that the New York businessman has shocked much of the world by vanquishing rival Hillary Clinton, Gundlach sees something else unstoppable: a rise in bond yields that could lift the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to 6% in the next four or five years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/#q=Gundlach:+Bond+Yields+Could+Hit+6%+in+Five+Years+Barron's