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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    I never had a bad experience with any of the credit unions I ever had accounts with. (I closed the last of the credit union accounts about a year ago.) One wonders why the fat cat bankers can not provide the same level of service as the credit unions. I do not mind any government support for the credit unions and small banks.
    I never had an account with Wells Fargo, another bank with SF roots. When I read about all the fraudulent behavior towards their customers I thought it must be an isolated bank but I can imagine all the big banks doing the same if they can get away with it.
    All in all, I blame the enablers more than the CEOs / executives. The roster of enablers goes down all the way to the lowest level employees. Whenever I see a lower level employee enabling corporate bad behavior, I tell them they are being used to line the pockets at the top but they will be thrown under the bus. One of the managers and her boss at one of my ex-employers were sent to jail for enabling corporate bad behavior while the executives paid no price (not even claw back of compensation), though the company paid a $500 million fine (20 yrs ago). While we all rant about political leaders, does not the blame actually rest with the enablers (us)?
    Thanks to @Old_Joe for sharing.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    I am somewhat amused by all of the criticism regarding BofA. I came to the same conclusion over fifty years ago. When BofA took over the bank that held our mortgage I walked into our local branch, was granted an audience with the surly unfriendly woman who had replaced the former pleasant and helpful manager, handed her a check (on a different bank) and paid off the mortgage then and there. Haven't had any traffic with BofA since.
    When I was a youngster (1940s/50s) BofA was headquartered in San Francisco. It had taken over and replaced a historic and outstanding local bank: The Bank of Italy, started by A.P. Giannini, a revered local businessman. After the earthquake of 1906 Mr. Giannini loaded all of his customer's money into horse-drawn wagons and transported it down the San Francisco peninsula to his own home, where it was safe from the fire which later consumed his bank offices in San Francisco's North Beach enclave.
    image
    From Wickipedia:
    A. P. Giannini was an American banker who founded the Bank of Italy, which eventually became Bank of America. Giannini is credited as the inventor of many modern banking practices. Most notably, Giannini was one of the first bankers to offer banking services to middle-class Americans, mainly Italian immigrants, rather than only the upper class. He also pioneered the holding company structure and established one of the first modern trans-national institutions.
    My father, who was also Italian, had nothing but contempt for the BofA, which had turned a friendly and helpful local bank into what you folks are still observing today. Boy, was he ever right.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    WCPNX. 5.6 years duration. I like what I see there.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    We still have a safe deposit box at another bank that we kept for transition to BoA. My desire to consolidate financial institution relationships down to two (or at best three) is not going so great.
    I would be ashamed to work at an institution that has a customer satisfaction rating of 1.6 out 5. May be the new crop of American workers are all Buddhas!
    Any way, part of my reason to post about BoA is to let the forum members know that however bad our brokerage experiences are, judging by banking experience, brokerages appear to be quite good. It seems there are worse companies in America for customer experience. Banking experience impacts wider society than us brokerage customers.
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    @hank,
    You want an active fund and you got it!
    I wonder how many investors really know what this fund does when they may have invested in it going by its name, "Core Investment."
    I do not know about money market comparison but you might try the following:
    Given the high current yields, are there not any bond funds that can beat LCORX for the next 1, 3, and 5 yrs?
    We are just coming off some of the worse times for bond funds. Are not there any bond funds that beat LCORX over the past 1 and 3 yrs?
    I am sold on active funds for equities, fixed income, and allocation funds but I am still looking for that buy and forget tactical fund (the elusive fourth category)!
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    I looked up other BoA branches within 15 miles of my home and they all had 2 out of 5 consumer online rating.
    Under "branch services" BofA used to tell you whether that branch offered safe deposit boxes. This information has been removed. Consider yourself lucky that you've got a local branch of any bank that still offers boxes.
    Corporate America has always been about greed. When customer service was the norm, companies had to provide good service, else they would lose business. As people became familiar with (dare I say enamored with?) self-service, customer service became an excess cost to be jettisoned.
    The bank I use for a safe deposit box used to be a reasonably sized (88 branch) regional bank. It merged with a similar sized, out of state bank (assets doubled). That in turn was acquired by another bank (assets doubled again). That put it into the list of 40 largest US banks.
    With that went customer service. No more notary service (used to be free even for noncustomers). Advance appointments are now required to access our box. Most of the desks in the branch that used to have bankers are now sitting empty.
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    Thanks David. I’d read your initial post and was wondering if perhaps what I’d noticed last week was just a lag in M * reflecting the increased short position. FWIW - I’m attaching a copy LCORX’s allocation as reported in the semi-annual report, March 31. The short positions then (10-11%) would appear to conform to the recently reported +5% increase.
    Also of note, M* shows the fund today sitting on 17.7% cash, while in March they reported 11.8% “short-term investments”. They’ve certainly increased their armor against a potential market slide since the report’s publication. I can’t recall any other fund I’ve ever owned altering course that dramatically in fewer than 5 months. Chalk it up to inexperience I suppose. :)
    image
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Long term bonds (treasuries or other) are often regarded as useful primarily for placing bets on interest rate movements, i.e. speculating. Most of the time long term bonds don't offer enough extra yield over intermediate term bonds to be worth the risk as investments.
    Currently, though the yield curve is largely inverted, at least you're getting a little risk premium with longs over intermediates.
    https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/
    Pushing on a string may not be the best metaphor, but the Fed pushes on the short end of the curve. That end has a lot of room to go down without long end yields necessarily dropping.

    10 year Treasuries are still under 4%, while their long term historical average is 4.25%. There's not much room for 30 years to drop in yield if they're going to stay above 10 year rates. 30 year Treasuries are now also below their historical average of 4.74%.
    We've already seen a drop in 30 year rates. Mortgages have dropped half a percent percent in the past month and are not expected to decline further this year, even with an anticipated Fed rate cut.
    https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/mortgage-interest-rates-forecast/
    All of this is not to say that long term rates won't drop a lot more. Or they might not. When and how much are also open questions.
    Me, I'm sticking with intermediates. Win a little, lose a little, they offer more stability as backup for cash in the 3-7 year timeframe.
    Side note: I suspect that cap gains on Treasuries are not state income tax exempt. While I have been unsuccessful in finding writing one way or the other, there are many sources documenting the fact that cap gains on muni bonds are state taxable. ISTM the situations are analogous.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    Here is my latest BoA experience. Took my 80+ yr mother to the branch to add her to my safe box account which I had opened exclusively for her.
    First Day - the branch lady said she can not accept insurance card, Medicare, or social security card as second proof of ID (in addition to state issued ID). I said print me instructions on what you need. She said there are no instructions to print but all she needs is a credit or debit card issued by a different company / bank and we will be all set.
    Second Day - The branch lady said, “your credit is frozen, we can not verify your mother’s identity. Unfreeze your credit and wait for 72 hours and come back”.
    I figured before I drag my mother a third time to the branch, I ask her to print me the account opening brochure so I know all the things you need. She said she had nothing to print or share and claimed all I need is bring my mother a third time with State ID, CC, and unfrozen credit. I asked her why she needs credit unfrozen when we are not applying for credit and she insisted that is how they do business. When I asked her to send a customer suggestion to her higher ups about providing clear, printed instructions to customers, she said she will send the request to her CEO (I doubt she knows his name).
    This is worse than third world experience and trust me I spent considerable time there.
    I looked up other BoA branches within 15 miles of my home and they all have 2 out of 5 consumer online rating. Yelp rating for my branch is 1.6. (My entire previous experience with BoA is thru their self directed brokerage, Merrill.)
    What happened to Corporate America?
    Bottom line, I am going to either short BAC stock or buy put options on it.
    Chase and Citi customer service in my town is so much better but they do not offer safe deposit boxes.
    BoA is a nightmare.
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    For some perspective - On Aug. 15, a 5% money market account would have returned 3.225% YTD. Somebody smarter than me would need to do the risk comparisons and determine whether holding LCR over those 7.5 months produced a sufficiently greater return (5.82%) than cash to compensate for the risk taken. If this one (LCR) changes direction as often as LCORX appears to, then getting a handle on the actual inherent risk might be difficult.
    (In tracking LCORX at M* the “short equity” position appeared to jump from 10% to 15% overnight sometime last week.)
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    LOL - Wish it were that simple! However, I have not held much cash for many years. I understand that the hypothetical, highly rumored, speculated and anticipated “Fed rate cut” would impact those who have been sitting in cash for the past year (while the S&P 500 rose 28%).
    I’m trying to get my head around where to cull a little risk without dumping any apples out of the cart. Have a substantial TOD position in PRHYX (short-term muni junk fund). I’d have expected to have spent that on a new vehicle or home infrastructure by now - but haven’t for various reasons. I’m thinking next week I may move a good portion of that into SPAXX (money market fund) as a quality upgrade to my fixed income posture. (All 3 accounts, TOD + 2 IRAs, are considered as one for allocation purposes.)
    If things get any crazier next week I might even move a bit of IRA cash into SPDN (2X inverse S&P) as a downside hedge. Prefer that to selling out of any major positions because I think they are good long term holds and not nearly as “bubbly” as the major indexes. I’d liken the froth atop them to be more like the head of foam on a stein of good beer. (Don’t dump out the beer because of the froth.)
    My fixed income funds now (aside from cash):
    - PRIHX
    - WEA
    - LSST
    - CVSIX - Arbitrage fund / Seeks to produce bond-like returns with lower volatility
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    @Devo
    LCR YTD performance at 5.82% does not jump out at me in view of the below YTD performances
    Kinetics Global: 41%
    Calamos Global: 31%
    SPE: 21%
    QSPRX: 20%
    CPIEX: 26%
    COAGX: 21%
    QLEIX: 20%
    What a year. FSUTX is up 19.42 YTD.
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    w/e August 16, 2024..... Yeah, ending with + NAV's
    Bond NAV's were rising through Wednesday, when Thursday found some very large daily percentage drops, with many having a decent recovery pricing on Friday; allowing for a positive pricing week. A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
    FIRST:
    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, August 12 - August 16, 2024
    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 5.15% yield. MMKT's yields were basically unchanged from last week. Fidelity's MMKT's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MMKT's.
    --- AGG = +.57% / +3.04% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.12% / +3.77% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = +.07% / +2.88% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = +.19% / +2.92% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +.42% / +2.74% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +.18% / +2.84% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = +.10% / +3.40% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = +.07% / +3.30% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = +.57% / +1.81% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +1.23% / +.84% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +1.72% / -.56% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +2.23% / -1.94% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -2.09% / +3.41% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +3.25% / -9.80% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = +.60% / +3.43% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- LQD = +1.35% / +3.10% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- BKLN = +.43% / +4.32% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = +1.12% / +5.62% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = +.25%/+3.85% (VanEck HY Muni)
    --- MUB = +.09% /+1.16% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = +1.25%/+5.85% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = +1.27% / +2.33% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = +1.14% / +6.15% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 5.15% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    The nice thing about Schwab ATM is the fact you can take out money around the world and they will refund you the fee by the end of the month.
    Question: suppose you took out $300 from an ATM and you want to deposit back $150, how do you it with Schwab or a bank that doesn't have branches?
    ... Ya, hey? The Honolulu office WILL NOT ACCEPT CASH. The whole raison d'etre of Schwab is to DEAL WITH MONEY. "Nuts." --- General Anthony McAuliffe, at Bastogne.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    The nice thing about Schwab ATM is the fact you can take out money around the world and they will refund you the fee by the end of the month.
    Question: suppose you took out $300 from an ATM and you want to deposit back $150, how do you it with Schwab or a bank that doesn't have branches?
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-08-16/wall-street-week-08-16-2024-video-lzxcqwix
    16 Aug, 2024.
    Jan Hatzius of Goldman evaluates the consumer, inflation and employment numbers. "Inflation is no longer a major issue for monetary policy."
    Kristen Bitterly, Citi. Analyzing the Market week. Earnings reports are encouraging. She expects 10 of 11 SP500 sectors to bounce back from last year, showing profitability. (Which is the loser? Real Estate?)...Good idea to be equal-weighted, rather than cap-weighted in the SP500. There is a broadening -out of profits beyond the Mag 7. Smid caps are a good target for money these days. And healthcare.
    Zachary Liscow, Yale Law School. Former Chief Economist at OMB. Infrastructure. Obstacles to a smooth, efficient rollout of the Biden era infrastructure push.
    Greg Peters, PGIM. Fixed Income ETFs now $2T industry. Whoa.
    Jonathan Klein. Legacy, linear Media companies struggle. It's the nature of the business.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (08/16/24)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    00:24 Free Wealth Path Analysis
    01:02 Topics
    02:12 The Biggest Volatility Crash in History
    05:55 A V-Shaped Rebound
    09:52 Down Goes Inflation
    17:06 Say Goodbye to the "Emergency" Rate Cut
    21:20 Plunging Housing Starts
    28:10 Starbucks Surge
    31:08 The Decline of the Department Store
    33:31 Rising Real Wages
    Video
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    If anyone here has a self directed BMO brokerage account, please share your experience.
    (My family has a small relationship on the banking side (walking distance to my home) and the BMO branch people are always very customer focused and the manager sits in the open for people to go talk to.)
    BMO is the Bank of Montreal (I checked up on this awhile ago when I was considering BMO Alto for an online savings account):
    The Bank of Montreal was founded in 1817, making it Canada’s oldest incorporated bank. ... Today, the various components of the Bank of Montreal are collectively known as BMO Financial Group.
    https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/bank-of-montreal
    While the bank has a US operation, even with a branch near you, its self-directed brokerage appears limited to Canadian residents:
    Opening a BMO InvestorLine Self-Directed account is easy. Here’s what you’ll need:
    • to be a Canadian resident (you live or have eligible ties to property, family or social services in Canada)
    • a valid Social Insurance Number (SIN)
    • to be at least the age of majority in your province or territory
    Maybe it's that they don't charge transaction fees on mutual funds that caught your attention?
    https://www.bmoinvestorline.com/selfDirected/pdfs/SDFeeSchedule_E.pdf
    That's offset by their charging $9.95 (Cdn) for stock and ETF trades, except for 95 NTF Canadian ETFs.
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    Per barchart.com, 20D Average Vol is 5,135. This is too light for me even if I intend this to be a buy and forget.