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Mike I can't help you because of the short term nature of my methodology. I was in PONDX in 2012 and a few months in early 2013 but not again until this year. Its returns from 2013 through 2016 were not inspiring. Much of this year's returns are from its exposure to rmbs primarily non agency. I read somewhere PIMCO and Ivascyn are buying all the legacy non agency rmbs from before the crash they can get their hands on. I am 55% IOFIX and 45% DPFNX now which is primarily all non agency but with a heck of a lot less AUM. How long this ultra steady rise in that market can continue there I have not a clue. But the strong housing market has helped immensely.PCI is still retains a discount although. Narrower than in the past.
Separate question: Do folks regard PONDX/PIMX/PONAX as a core holding or a high yieldly satellite? Just curious what folks like @junkster, @davidsnowball, @mikem, @oldskeet think?
Regards,Mike
But then the performance of your "investments" is not an accurate representation or apples to apples comparison to how it stacks up versus broader index performance... If you have cash that you'd actually deem as investible, then it should be a part of your portfolio, and be a boon in down markets and drag in up markets."If you're "nearly 100%" equities"
@JoJo26: That's not what he said. Read it again: "nearly 100% of my investments in equities". Obviously he does not consider his cash to be "invested"... a perfectly reasonable perspective.
Prechter has the distinction of being bearish since late 1987. His fame came from some prescient bullish calls in the mid 80s. Since then he has been among the most vociferous bears on the planet.It sounds simple to buy during a bear market, but the facts are that people buy during the bull market, and will sell during and after a decline. I heard that a guy by the name of Robert Prechter has an amazing history, so he says, of predicting the stock market collapses.The Depression is just around the cornerA June 2015 profile of Robert Prechter, the world’s foremost proponent of Elliott Wave technical analysis, turned out to be the most popular investing story on MarketWatch for the week in which it was published.
One of the reasons is that, at the time, Prechter said the bull market in U.S. stocks was in a “precarious position” as a “mania” gripped investors, who pushed stocks to sky-high levels of overvaluation. The market has only risen since then, and it even got a bump from the November 2016 election of businessman Donald Trump as president.
If you're "nearly 100%" equities, how do you have a large cash pile.....As someone in their mid-40s with nearly 100% of my investments in equities, now that it's no longer needed for parental care purposes, I will happily deploy my large cash pile to opportunistically pick up stocks I want to own or add to as they "go on sale." But since I'm already comfortably in the markets, I'm in no rush and won't just pay any price!
The traditional answer is: there are buyers with cash, waiting to swoop in. You might take a haircut, but you'll find a buyer. Mr. Rodriquez's argument is that the supply of buyers is becoming smaller (as assets flow into passive strategies that are always 100% invested) and less liquid (managers fear the drag of cash, so they don't hold it).Imagine an ETF that owns an apartment building and turnovers over all its shares every two days with a very small bid/ask spread. That's great until redemption orders greatly exceed purchase orders, at which point the question becomes, "who can I sell my apartment building to, at face value, by 4:00 p.m. today, in the face of a panic?"
That's an extreme illustration but the same dynamic is true for high yield bond ETFs. Those bonds don't actually trade all that other or all that smoothly. But the ETF does.
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