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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Just a friendly reminder for any newbie investors (8/5/2024)
    Without realizing it at the time Lou of WSW is probably the reason I got interested in Mr Market. It was must watch TV every Friday for me.
    And same here.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    @Mark, on PC mouse, there is left-click (more common) that opens the link and right-click (less common) that open a menu.
    @msf, true, image link must be .jpg (lower quality), .png (higher quality), etc.
    So, if an image link doesn't end that way, then take a screenshot, upload to ImgBB, and use in MFO Image-tool.
    image
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    If an image doesn't have linkable address (e.g. screenshots or other pics on your PC), use free image-hosting sites such as Imgbb.com, etc, to establish image-link, and then follow the above steps.
    Even it an image does have a linkable address, it may still not display properly. My experience shows that URLs ending in .jpg, .jpeg, etc. generally work, others may not.
    For example, here's the URL for stockchart's version of the graph followed by a link to that image (i.e. linkable) followed by what is displayed when inserted by the MFO Image-Tool.
    https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=DJT&id=p48083277857
    Link
    image
  • Change to T. Rowe Price High Yield Fund (nothing bad)
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/754915/000174177324003447/c497.htm
    497 1 c497.htm
    T. Rowe Price High Yield Fund
    Supplement to Prospectus and Summary Prospectus dated August 1, 2024
    On August 5, 2024, the Board of Directors of the T. Rowe Price High Yield Fund (“Fund”) approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (“Plan”) pursuant to which New America High Income Fund, Inc. (“New America”), a third-party closed-end fund, will transfer substantially all of its assets and stated liabilities to the Fund in exchange for Investor Class shares of the Fund. The reorganization is subject to approval by New America shareholders, who will be asked to vote on the proposal at their Annual Meeting of Shareholders expected to take place in November 2024. Following the reorganization, New America will liquidate. The reorganization will not result in any changes to the Fund’s fees and expenses or investment program nor require any action by Fund shareholders.
    The date of this supplement is August 8, 2024.
    F57-041 8/8/24
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    Matt Levine, Money Stuff: The Good Trades Have Gone Bad
    "DJT
    There are basically two kinds of public companies in the US, which you can distinguish from each other by looking at their lists of top shareholders. Big institutional investors, and some individuals, have to report their stock holdings, and those reports get aggregated, by Bloomberg among others. So when I look at Bloomberg’s ownership page for JPMorgan Chase & Co., for instance, I see shareholders that include BlackRock and Vanguard and State Street, the “Big Three” index investors, but also big actively managed institutions like Capital Group and Fidelity and T. Rowe Price. Also, though, when I look at the top of the page, I see that about 77% of the shares are accounted for: Institutions and individuals who report their share ownership own 77% of JPMorgan.
    And then when I look at AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., a big meme stock, I see that only about 27% of the shares are accounted for: A large majority of AMC’s holders are retail investors who do not have to disclose their ownership, so public ownership data is much sparser. At AMC too, the top holders include the Big Three index investors. But the rest of the top institutions are mostly not long-term asset managers like Fidelity or T. Rowe, but fast-money hedge funds like Renaissance Technologies and DE Shaw & Co., or proprietary trading firms like Jane Street Group and Susquehanna International Group. Most of those firms don’t own that stock as a long-term investment: They own that stock because they are essentially taking the other side of very active retail traders, in the stock or in options. (Quite possibly they own the stock to hedge options they have sold to retail traders.). Also they don’t own that much of it; that’s a market-making position, not an investment.
    Last week, New York magazine had a very fun profile of Trump Media & Technology Group, Donald Trump’s small business that is also a large meme stock. (“‘It’s a company that essentially has the revenue of not even a medium-size McDonald’s franchise,’ says John Rekenthaler, a researcher at Morningstar,” but its market capitalization today is more than $5 billion.) There is a lot about its fairly hapless founding by former Apprentice contestants, its struggles to go public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company, etc.:
    The upshot was that even with the SPAC maneuver and its $300 million in limbo, there would be enough capital to build a social network. And the executives had decided on a name. At a meeting at Trump’s golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, Moss and Litinsky pitched him on Virt, short for virtuous. Trump suggested Truth instead. They looked up the domain TruthSocial.com, saw that it was available for a little more than $2,000, and bought it. When they ran the name by Melania, she burst out laughing. “Truth?!” she said, pointing at her husband. “This guy?”
    And the story makes the reasonable point that, if Donald Trump becomes president again and you want to bribe him, Trump Media gives you some good ways to do so: A really ambitious bidder could try to acquire the company and cash out Trump’s multi-billion dollar stake, but even short of that you could buy stock to show your support, buy advertising on Truth Social, etc. If you’re an institution, your stock ownership would be public, so Trump could see it and be grateful.
    This, though, is probably not that:
    In March, Trump announced a surprising policy reversal. As president, he’d tried to ban TikTok, which is owned by a Chinese company; now, abruptly, he was for the social network’s continued operation. The about-face followed a meeting Trump took with Jeff Yass, a major Republican donor who owns a significant stake in TikTok’s parent. When reporters dug up the fact that his trading firm, Susquehanna International Group, had until recently been the single-largest institutional shareholder in Digital World, there was outrage: Here was a seemingly perfect example of a billionaire using Trump’s company to influence him. Susquehanna has since insisted that its 2 percent stake was offset by equivalent short positions and that it had “zero economic interest in Trump Media.” Even if that were true, taking multibillion-dollar investment firms at their word is hardly a model for good government.
    I have no inside information here, but I will take Susquehanna at their word? Susquehanna is fundamentally a market maker: If it’s long 2% of Trump Media, that’s almost certainly because it’s also short 2% of Trump Media (or has sold options, etc.). Susquehanna being a big holder of Trump Media doesn’t actually mean that Susquehanna is a big investor in Trump Media. It means that Trump Media is a meme stock, and it doesn’t really have many big investors."
  • CIT TDFs More Popular Than OEF TDFs
    Collective investment trusts (CITs) are unlisted, low-cost funds regulated by the OCC (banking regulator). So, their disclosure requirements are different - but the retirement plans have fiduciary duty in selecting them. Many firm's CITs are clones or cousins of their OEFs. The CITs are available in workplace retirement plans.
    News is that they are now more popular (50.5% of all TDFs, 06/2024) than the listed OEFs regulated by the SEC (securities regulators). For holders, the difference isn't important except that CITs don't have useable tickers for portfolio tracking, and in-kind transfers out aren't possible. Notably, some outflows from OEFs have been into CITs, so keep that in mind using the new MFO Premium FLOW, FLOWS, TNA tools. @Charles
    This while ETFs are catching up fast with OEFs in taxable accounts.
    Morningstar https://www.morningstar.com/funds/cits-dethrone-mutual-funds-most-popular-target-date-vehicle
  • Go Anywhere Funds…
    @hank, @catch22 and other MI residents might be amused to know that FBBAX has approximately 1% of its AUM in KEWL, the Keewenau Land Association. This former forestry products company has considerable subsurface mineral rights. The Upper Peninsula of MI is the ultimate fly-over region (speaking from the point of view of a non-native), but one could imagine a revival if profitable mining returned to the UP. To complement that unusual holding, the fund has Phillip Morris. Go-anywhere does not appear to imply ESG.
    I used to tour the UP by road several times a summer. Some beautiful locals on the big water. Other than quick one-day trips to the island for bicycling, I haven’t been back in several years, Given my “druthers” I’d drive 4-5 hours east from the Sault into Canada. But I digress. Yes - the UP once boasted a thriving mining industry.
    To FBBAX - ISTM Phillip Morris is a favorite of funds that emphasize a stable income stream and / or low volatility. Hasn’t been a bad hold in recent years. (I get the ESG point. Nice job connecting the dots Ben.) Whenever possible, I like to “hold to the fire” any fund I look at by checking how it performed in 2008 - the worst year for equities in my lifetime. FBBAX lost 30.66% in 2008 (according to Yahoo) which was actually a bit better than its category (and probably better than the S&P). This knowedge, however, does not compel me to want to send $$.
  • Schwab Rewards
    Schwab $6K reward for asset transfers. Dates aren't mentioned, but the offer can be withdrawn at any time.
    Enroll and make a qualifying net deposit of cash or securities of $50,000-$249,999 and earn a bonus award of $300
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    Enroll and make a qualifying net deposit of cash or securities of $500,000-$999,999 and earn a bonus award of $1,200
    Enroll and make a qualifying net deposit of cash or securities of $1,000,000-$4,999,999 and earn a bonus award of $2,500
    Enroll and make a qualifying net deposit of cash or securities of $5,000,000 or more and earn a bonus award of $6,000
    https://www.schwab.com/investor_reward?cmp=em-ZHO
  • Veridien Climate Action ETF will be liquidated
    update:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1924868/000199937124009713/clia_497-080724.htm
    97 1 clia_497-080724.htm SUPPLEMENT
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    Registration Nos. 333-264478; 811-23793
    Veridien Climate Action ETF (CLIA)
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated August 7, 2024
    to the Summary Prospectus dated November 27, 2023, and to each of the Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) dated April 21, 2023
    This Supplement replaces and restates the supplement that was filed on August 5, 2024.
    Tidal Investments LLC (“Tidal”), the Fund’s investment adviser, informed the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Tidal Trust II of its view that the Fund could not conduct its business and operations in an economically efficient manner over the long term due to the Fund’s inability to attract sufficient investment assets to maintain a competitive operating structure, and recommended the Fund’s closure and liquidation to the Board. The Board determined, after considering Tidal’s recommendation, that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to liquidate and terminate the Fund as described below.
    In addition, the Chief Investment Officer of the Fund’s sub-adviser, Veridien Global Investors LLC (the “Sub-Adviser”), who was also one of the Fund’s portfolio managers, recently resigned from employment with the Sub-Adviser. In light of her resignation, the Adviser and the Sub-Adviser have determined that the Fund’s portfolio could not be effectively managed in accordance with the Fund’s registration statement and, therefore, the Fund’s investment portfolio has been liquidated and transitioned to cash. As a result of these circumstances the Adviser and Sub-Adviser have determined that the liquidation of the Fund is advisable and in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders.
    Resignation of Portfolio Manager
    Effective August 2, 2024, Ariane Mahler has resigned from her position as Chief Investment Officer of the Sub-Adviser. Ms. Mahler was also a portfolio manager to the Fund. As such, all references to Ms. Mahler are removed throughout the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and SAI.
    Liquidation
    In preparation for the liquidation, shares of the Fund will cease trading on the NYSE Arca, Inc. (“NYSE”) and will be closed to purchase by investors as of the close of regular trading on the NYSE on August 16, 2024 (the “Closing Date”). The Fund will not accept purchase orders after the Closing Date.
    Shareholders may sell their holdings in the Fund prior to the Closing Date and customary brokerage charges may apply to these transactions. However, from August 16, 2024 through August 20, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”), shareholders may be able to sell their shares only to certain broker-dealers and there is no assurance that there will be a market for the Fund’s shares during this time period. Between the Closing Date and the Liquidation Date, the Fund will be in the process of closing down and liquidating the Fund’s portfolio. This process will result in the Fund increasing its cash holdings and, as a consequence, not tracking its underlying index, which is inconsistent with the Fund’s investment objective and strategy.
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    Registration Nos. 333-264478; 811-23793
    On or about the Liquidation Date, the Fund will liquidate its assets and distribute cash pro rata to all shareholders of record who have not previously redeemed or sold their shares, subject to any required withholding. Liquidation proceeds paid to shareholders generally should be treated as received in exchange for shares and will therefore be treated as a taxable event giving rise to a capital gain or loss depending on a shareholder’s tax basis. Shareholders should contact their tax adviser to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation. In addition, these payments to shareholders may include distributions of accrued capital gains and dividends. As calculated on the Liquidation Date, the Fund’s net asset value will reflect the costs of closing the Fund. Once the distributions are complete, the Fund will terminate.
    * * * * *
    For more information, please contact the Fund at (888) 318-0133.
    Please retain this Supplement with your Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and SAI.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Yesterday I put on a 5-strike combo spread on ALT expiring in Jan 26 as a totally speculatitive play for potential gains should their GLP-1 competitor keep showing good promise and/or if a big pharma player decides to take them out. Downside risk $5000, unlimited upside if it happens, so it's a viable risk/reward for this kind of trade. (for speculative trades, I hope for the best, but would be happy with getting out at 'breakeven' if necessary.)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    FWIW, I picked up a 20 year corporate bond from Deutsch Bank at 6%. It won't be called for at least 2 years (aug. '26), so I'll take the higher return with the expectation it will inevitably be called in 2026.
    Deutsche Bank Aktien 6% 08/16/2044 Callable
    CUSIP: 25161FXT0
  • Go Anywhere Funds…
    Thanks @BenWP
    I wonder how the anverage retail investor today would react if his “go-anywhere” fund lost 15% in a year when the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P all gained? Obviously the manager had decided to go somewhere non-mainstream. May have been wrong. May have been a year or two early. Might have built a large position in something while price was depressed.
    Real hedge funds operate a lot differently than retail funds. They attract wealthy clients who can ride out multi-year losses. They impose limits on how much, if any, they can withdraw for the first several years. And often the operator receives a predetermined % of the gains - adding incentives to take risk. SEC restrictions may be lesser or non-existent. More risk taking. Much different animal.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/7/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/7/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (40.5%, above average) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (22.0%, low); bearish became the middle sentiment (37.5%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +3.0% (below average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (128+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (43+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds up, oil down, gold down, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 46.72% (negative). Fear gauge VIX range this week 15.95 - 65.73; Japan even more volatile. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1597/thread
  • ⇒ All Things Boeing ... NASA may send Starliner home without its crew
    “NASA may send Starliner home without its crew — leaving astronauts stuck in space until 2025.”
    The Story
    image
  • Go Anywhere Funds…
    With respect to EKBAX, I note the lead manager, M. Patel, graduated from college the same year I did. M* may actually be right in questioning the lack of a succession plan for the fund. Not long ago I was saying no one my age should be running for president; I think I was right.
    The fund is >50% tech in it's equity allocation. Buyer beware
  • Mr. Market is upset this morning
    Somebody should start a new thread!
    ”Is Mr. Market Happy or Upset today?”
    It might run ad-infinitum the way @Crash’s “Buy / Sell” thread does.
    :)
    An excellent discussion from the members. But the whole idea suggests how short term focused we have become, The crash of ‘07 - ‘09 was short by historical standards, Somewhere in the 15-16 month area. Yet every single month the markets ground lower felt like an eternity, There is a natural human tendency to assume that the present (whatever it is) will continue.
  • Go Anywhere Funds…
    Adding to @msf’s above …
    I tossed out little known GAA as worth a look. Not a recommendation. Cambrea has some whacky funds (TOKE). You could have lost your shirt in more than one. Small shop. Largely run by podcast celebrity Meb Faber. Those are meant as disclaimers!
    M* rates GAA neutral and faults the management team as too thin / too concentrated in one hand, The 53.7 Ml asset base is another issue, though there is no sign it will close. The .40% ER covers the costs incurred from the mostly actively managed funds it invests in (several in-shop / a few from outside).
    Personally, I wanted something in a conservative balanced fund (about 40% fixed income) that goes “off the track” and invests where many others do not. The fund is overweight commodities relative to peers. A bit over half the equity position is non-U.S. It acts as if there’s some precious metals in there. Includes some EM. Quite a bit in Asia. Also in Europe. There are some short positions. One of the funds it invests in employs a momentum strategy.
    The 5 year record is modest. This one won’t make you rich. Designed for conservative investors, Should outperform cash longer term. I’m comfortable throwing an equal portfolio weight (10%) into it and letting it ride. (I’ve also enjoyed listening for hours to more than a dozen of Faber’s radio podcast interviews with many different investment professionals.)
    This is not a recommendation.
  • Mr. Market is upset this morning
    The truth, however, is that we don’t know why stocks fell. ... it probably doesn’t matter much
    Fire ten shots into the air from different positions in a semicircle surrounding a herd of cattle and you'll get a stampede. But you won't know which direction to expect nor which shot or shots set the cattle a-runnin'.
    Furthermore, if fears of a U.S. recession drove this stock slump, why did Japanese stocks fall so much more than stocks here?
    Effective rhetoric, but possible explanations do exist. In the news section of the NYTimes we find one possible explanation that the news editors felt worth mentioning.
    When the Bank of Japan raised interest rates last week ... the decision coincided with forecasts [due to fear of a U.S. recession?] that the Fed was preparing to cut rates soon. This narrowed the gap between market rates in Japan and the United States, and the yen spiked.
    The suddenly stronger yen also threatened to become a drag on corporate profits for Japanese firms, especially the big companies that rely on exports. That spooked investors in Japan’s stock market, stoking fears that a stronger yen would spell the end of a more-than-yearlong rally.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/07/business/stock-market-drama-explained.html
    The U.S. recession fear was actually a double whammy on the large Japanese companies: (1) the sudden increase in price of exports (due to spike in Yen), and (2) the expected decline in demand for Japanese exports (independent of exchange rates) due to a feared U.S. recession. The U.S. is Japan's biggest export market (2023).
    Do we know that these factors related to the fear of a U.S. recession caused Japan's market to tumble? No. Is it a possible explanation for the sharper, faster drop in the Nikkei 225 than in the S&P 500? Yes.