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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • David Snowball's July Commentary Is Now Available
    David seems to feel the WSJ's editorial page is firmly rooted in the 16th century. I would like to know which editorial page he thinks represents the century in which we are currently living? Obviously this is a rhetorical question because his inference is very clear. Could it be the intolerant echo chamber of his college environs which informs his views?
  • More Than 1,500 Fidelity Workers Take Buyouts
    Hi guys!
    I will say only this: in our retirement package, you had to be 55 with 10 years of employment. Also, it was not offered to office people. Also, not to engineering personnel. At our plant (we have 20 worldwide), this is the second time in 10 years they have done this with us. Other plants have had packages also, so it must be something they can do at their discretion to pare down production as necessary. 'Cause we're non-union? Who knows?
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • More Than 1,500 Fidelity Workers Take Buyouts
    Sven: Offered buy out, not forced. Recently all members of my local union on medicare were forced to find new drug insurance & were removed from plan as of 1/1/17 Age discrimination or not ?
    Derf
  • More Than 1,500 Fidelity Workers Take Buyouts
    Fidelity targeted about 7 percent of its workforce, all of them employees who were age 55 or older and had been with the company for at least 10 years.
    Isn't that constitute age discrimination?
  • Guggenheim cuts in half its fees on S + P 500 equal weight etf

    That makes it more compelling to me. I am not one for market-cap weightings.
    RSP now gets added to BRLIX (.15) on my list for possible 'broad market' places to throw money.
  • More Than 1,500 Fidelity Workers Take Buyouts
    FYI: More than 1,500 workers with Fidelity Investments, most of them long-time employees, have taken a voluntary buyout package, the first the company has offered in its history as it braces for dramatic shifts in money management.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2017/06/30/more-than-fidelity-workers-take-buyouts/IyiNQtFLaZo8V5VD2MdjKK/story.html
  • Eric Cinnamond / Biggest Bubble / Fleckenstein
    The link has some recent (May-June 2017) podcasts.
    https://www.thefelderreport.com/category/podcast/
    The Eric Cinnamond interview from May, I found especially illuminating.
    The Steven Bregman interview ("Biggest Bubble ever") also brought up some info I had never considered, regarding inherent weaknesses in the market-cap indices.
    Warning: the Bregman interview is ~ 90 minutes.
  • oddly big jump in PDI today
    tnx
    I have read it, on occasion, perhaps thanks to your tipoff prior (?), and found it a little arcane for my presidential attention span :)
    There ya go - just take a phrase out of context, so it's 180 degrees from reality, throw in an insult or two, and ... voila! you've got the making of a presidential-caliber tweet!
  • Clouds Are Forming Over The Bond Market
    FYI: The bond market is flashing warning signals that bad times may be ahead for the stock market and the economy.
    That is probably not what most people want to hear — stock investors especially. In the first half of the year, after all, stocks have performed spectacularly. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index returned 9 percent through June, churning out gains so regularly that it may seem churlish to note that clouds are appearing on the horizon.
    Yet like a long-range forecast about a possible storm, an old and trusted financial indicator is telling us that trouble may be looming.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/30/your-money/clouds-are-forming-over-the-bond-market.html
  • Bruce Berkowitz’ Bets Big On Sears, Fannie Mae, And Freddie Mac
    @expatsp: good question ... especially since I am in the middle of a portfolio re-organization (for myself and my wife) to better reflect how likely we are to rebalance and etc. !
    Some background...
    In general, before I buy into a fund, I do a lot of research. I consider my asset allocation, role in portfolio, etc. I don't look at simple average returns without also considering downside / upside capture and cumulative returns. I used to go so far as to do a correlation and simulation exercise to determine if the candidate fund would add bang to buck while acting differently than my core 4-5 funds. I like managers who know how to hold cash.
    Before moving out of a fund, I try to be very sensitive to my own biases and put the breaks on any temptation to jump in and out of funds. I want stuff I can buy and hold; I don't want to fall into the trap of "OMG I should be doing something all the time" and thus getting low investor returns because I can't leave well enough alone. I remain sensitive to the fact that solid active managers will underperform. I have held funds that have underperformed over 3 year intervals for example, and have gone on to deliver long-term above-average results. So, I want something more than just a bad stretch to make a move. I don't mind a concentrated portfolio, and philosophically am skeptical of crowd phenomena.
    FAIRX fulfilled all of my buy criteria when I first became a shareholder in 2007. I resisted the temptation to go all-in during its heyday, and kept it at 5% of my portfolio, in a sleeve that I consider alternate approaches. I have not rotated into or out of the fund, and have made money on it since I bought in. Oddly enough, however, in holding FAIRX I would have done no better since 2007 than if I had bought and held a decent bond fund...
    So, all that said...
    I guess I have held on to FAIRX in large part because of the biases and philosophy noted above, and its small share of my total portfolio. But also I made a career change in 2011, and have increasingly had much, much less time for investing (because I have less time for anything). I was also insufficiently sensitive to the issues that LewisBraham notes above. I always had more of an emotional attachment to the FAIRX philosophy, then to Bruce himself. That said, I was ticked off by Bruce's AUM and publicity spree, as well as what might be considered flaws in personal judgement (Barron's piece), but just never got around to making a move, because I bought into his theses. Now, silly as it seems, the issue is identifying the suitable fund to rotate into given my current portfolio.
    D.S.
  • Muni bonds in troubles?
    Hi,
    I most likely will add to my single state muni fund (FMTNX) when the US 10 Year reaches a yield of 2.5%, or thereabouts, with current yield at about 2.3%. Remember, generally bond prices fall as their yield rises. I hold this fund as part of my infrastructure theme along with PGUAX since muni bonds fund a lot of local government infrastructure projects. Plus, the fund is both state and federal tax exempt, for me, unless it has capital gains to disburse.
  • A 60-40 Portfolio Could Return Less Than A Savings Account
    I have no idea if the firm will be proven right or wrong but it would obviously be more useful to know what to invest in rather than being told what won't work. I personally don't anticipate ever investing in a cd paying less than 2% but might invest in a lower paying investment with excellent liquidity.One possible approach for the next 10 years invest in a relatively high paying safe investment such as a 5 year cd with a low penalty for early closeout i.e with decent liquidity and close it out when the market drops 25% which is something that will probably occur at least once in the net 10 years.Yes, i recognise that this strategy might not work but would be pleased with other suggestions
  • oddly big jump in PDI today
    @davidmoran, I take it you mean the price today, the 30th? Strong possibility it was just buyers helping it catch up with the premium narrowing of the 29th, when the NAV was up 1% and price flat. None of the other Pim MS CEF NAVs were up nearly that much - second highest was 0.2% for PCM, and most of the others were flat. So the NAV jump must have been something specific to PDI, but what, who knows?
    Might also have been a bit of the T dip buying involved, which bumped some CEFs today, including some munis. PCI, which did well on price today too, not so great on NAV yesterday, had been lagging a bit for a while, so maybe PCI also caught a bid based on the combination of those two things - recent lag, T dip buying.
    Couldn't find any news of July dividends being declared - the month's divs are usually announced on the first biz day of the new month, same day as the previous month's payout, if I'm recalling the schtick correctly, e.g., here.
  • Moving Averages: June Month-End Update
    "Buying and selling based on a moving average of monthly closes can be an effective strategy for managing the risk of severe loss from major bear markets."
    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/06/30/moving-averages-june-month-end-update
  • oddly big jump in PDI today
    I am so confused. I thought declaration was a while ago (per their site, ex date 6/8, record date 6/12, payment Monday). Also stocks typically drop post-div (I know this is not that, but it is cef). Hmm.
  • A 60-40 Portfolio Could Return Less Than A Savings Account
    Hi @David_Snowball
    Yes, I recall the fund you mentioned and Mr. Arnott; with the connection to Pimco.
    I watched this fund for a few years wondering where it was traveling to and why it held the chosen investment sectors. I don't watch anymore.
    This link = composition and other choices:
    https://nb.fidelity.com/public/workplacefunds/composition/OSBX?fundId=OSBX&planId=50405
    This link charting PAAIX against PONDX:
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?PAAIX,PONDX&n=2576&O=011000
    I couldn't recommend this fund or advisement from this organization; as I don't find performance of consequence.
    I wondered in the past where the managers have their monies invested.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • A 60-40 Portfolio Could Return Less Than A Savings Account
    Research Affiliates are Rob Arnott's group. They've been around 15 years and specialize in smart beta and asset allocation strategies; to their great credit, they've been warning that smart beta strategies (low vol, for instance) got too popular to actually generate decent returns. Arnott's argument is that only three smart beta factors, including size and value, are likely to have any enduring virtue.
    About the best real-world test of their approach is PIMCO All Asset Fund (PAAIX) which is the go-anywhere fund they manage for PIMCO. Four-star, $20 billion, analyst rated as Gold, top 4% over the past decade despite a bad slump from 2013-15. By MFO's measures, since inception it has substantially higher returns, lower volatility, smaller max drawdown, quicker recovery time and better Sharpe/Sortino/Martin ratios than its Global Macro peer group.
    On whole, they're responsible for about $200 billion and are well-respected though certainly not right all the time about everything.
    If they're marketing anything, I'd guess it's their free asset allocation tool. It's so complex that Charles swooned in delight when he first saw it. I mostly backed quietly away.
    Cheers,
    David