I sold out of GQGIX after a 20% run up since a 4Q23 purchase. It feels a bit rich, and certainly has gotten quite big for an EM fund at ~$23B AUM. An 11% allocation to NVDA/AVGO certainly provided a boost over the past 2 years, but could also serve as a boat anchor if/when NVDA orders start to slow.

@BaluBalu
View two, SPY vs VWINX. Same time frame 2000 through 2011.
BINGO !!!

I have done more than that and never lost more than 1% from any last top since retiring in 2018.
The "secrets" are 1) Mostly owning 2-3 bond funds at a huge % 2) switching bond fund = good timing 3) avoiding market losses.
There's no easy way to do it with low volatility. It took me over 20 years to master my system.
See how I did it at (link).

@BaluBalu
One view. SPY vs FBALX

I would think bond funds and even VWINX may have done better than moderate allocation funds like FBALX. But for apples to apples, I was looking for blend funds.

@BaluBalu
One view. SPY vs FBALX

Raised my shorts a little higher yesterday and again today before markets turned south (SDS / PSQ).
Looking at this as a longer term hedge. Very small amount - well below 1% of portfolio.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/751173/000199937124010489/realestate-497_082224.htm
497 1 realestate-497_082224.htm DEFINITIVE MATERIALS
MANNING & NAPIER FUND, INC.
(the “Fund”)
Real Estate Series – Class I, S, W and Z
(the “Series”)
Supplement dated August 22, 2024 to:
● the Summary Prospectus dated March 1, 2024, for the Series (“Summary Prospectus”);
● the Prospectus dated March 1, 2024, for the Series (“Prospectus”); and
● the Statement of Additional Information
dated March 1, 2024, for the Series (“SAI”).
This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and SAI, and should be read in conjunction with the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and SAI.
The Board of Directors of the Fund has voted to terminate the offering of shares of the Real Estate Series and instructed officers of the Fund to take all steps necessary to completely liquidate the Series. Accordingly, effective immediately, the Series will be closed to new investors. Effective September 27, 2024, the Series will stop selling its shares to existing shareholders and will no longer accept automatic investments from existing shareholders.
The Series will redeem all of its outstanding shares on or about October 11, 2024 and distribute the net proceeds pro rata to its shareholders (subject to maintenance of appropriate reserves for liquidation and other expenses). The liquidation date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Fund’s officers.
As is the case with other redemptions, each shareholder’s redemption, including a mandatory redemption, will constitute a taxable disposition of shares for those shareholders who do not hold their shares through tax-advantaged plans. Shareholders should contact their tax advisors to discuss the potential income tax consequences of the liquidations.
As shareholders redeem shares of the Series between the date of this supplement and the date of the final redemptions, and as the Series increases its cash position to facilitate redemptions, the Series may not be able to continue to invest its assets in accordance with its stated investment policies. Accordingly, the Series may not be able to achieve its investment objectives during the period between the date of this supplement and the date of the final redemptions.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916006/000168035924000241/bridgewaymgdvol497e08222024.htm
497 1 bridgewaymgdvol497e08222024.htm
BRIDGEWAY FUNDS, INC.
Managed Volatility Fund (BRBPX)
Supplement dated August 22, 2024
to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated October 31, 2023
On August 22, 2024, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Bridgeway Funds, Inc. considered and approved a proposal to liquidate and dissolve the Managed Volatility Fund (the “Fund”). The Fund will be liquidated pursuant to a Board-approved Plan of Liquidation and Dissolution (the “Plan”) on or about November 18, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”). In anticipation of the Fund’s liquidation, the Fund is permitted to depart from its stated investment objective and strategies and intends to begin to sell its assets in exchange for cash or cash equivalents.
Effective immediately, new account requests, exchanges into the Fund and purchase orders for Fund shares will no longer be permitted (other than those purchase orders received through dividend reinvestment).
The costs of the liquidation (except brokerage costs and tax consequences of shareholders), including the mailing of this notification to shareholders, will be borne by Bridgeway Capital Management, LLC. (the “Adviser”). Between now and the Liquidation Date, existing Fund shareholders may continue to reinvest dividends and distributions, redeem shares, or exchange shares into other Bridgeway Funds.
Any shareholder who has not redeemed or exchanged shares into another Bridgeway Fund by the regular close of business on the business day before the Liquidation Date will receive a liquidating distribution as of the Liquidation Date. On the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute pro rata to its remaining shareholders all of its assets in cash, and all outstanding shares will be redeemed and canceled.
The liquidation (or a redemption or exchange) will constitute a taxable event, except to the extent the Fund’s shares are held in a tax-advantaged product, plan or account. Therefore, you may be subject to federal, state or local taxes. The Fund does not provide tax advice. You should consider consulting with your tax advisor for information regarding all tax consequences applicable to your investments in the Fund.
To contact Bridgeway Funds for questions regarding this liquidation:
•Call us at: 800-661-3550
•E-mail us at: [email protected]
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE

That said, I ran Portfolio Visualizer efficient frontier analyses. Because a couple of funds were extremely new, I had to make substitutions. In lieu of PHEFX I used IPSAX; also near the top of 1 year performance for options trading funds. For HELO I substituted JHQEX.

@msf, first off - thanks for "playing"!
I substitute ACIO for PHEFX when utilizing backtest calculations. I use ACIO specifically for taxable accounts, and it seems to track PHEFX decently so far.
LT Bonds have just gone through a funky stretch, but with rate cuts ahead, a VWINX conservative allocation fund could be nice to have in the mix. Trying to get my head wrapped around leaning back into medium/long term bonds.

I noticed nobody has proposed for consideration a portfolio solely made up of ETFs...kind of surprising as there are many model portfolio's like that floating out there..."The Lazy Portfolio", the three ETF portfolio, etc...
Also find it interesting that some are looking at past results as a comparison...last 15 years relatively low inflation until recently...also tremendous fiscal and monetary stimulus. Who knows that the future holds...some of you might remember a few years ago when I mentioned high grade rubies, you can fit a million dollar of them in your sock and no one would know..also interesting that no one has mentioned bitcoin...are we just a bunch of older dudes fighting the last war or are we going to open our minds and skate to where the puck is headed not where it is and has been?
Looking forward for this exercise, I am considering "continuity of fund managers", what are their ages and what is the bench strength and financial soundness of the fund company? Maybe need some international exposure as what if dollar weakens substantially?
What other inputs are folks pondering that maybe haven't been discussed yet?

A lot of people are showing fascination with these "newfangled" trading funds. Not only newfangled but new - PHEFX is barely a year old. So how much one can understand about a relatively complex fund beyond the fact that it started hot out of the gate?
(See the original thread on this fund.)
That said, I ran Portfolio Visualizer efficient frontier analyses. Because a couple of funds were extremely new, I had to make substitutions. In lieu of PHEFX I used IPSAX; also near the top of 1 year performance for options trading funds. And FWIW over such a short period, it correlates 99%. For HELO I substituted JHQEX.
I also threw in the four funds Vanguard uses for its model 60/40 portfolio: VTI, VXUS, BND, BNDX. Not surprisingly, at the high volatility end of the efficient frontier curve one finds pure VTI. (Throw in VFIAX and that will be the selected fund; it's been hard to beat S&P 500 if one doesn't care about volatility.)
PV efficient frontier analysis
At different levels of volatility, a portfolio with a single fund, PVCMX (lower volatility), JHEQX (medium volatility), or PRPFX (high volatility) comes pretty close to the efficient frontier. At 7% standard deviation, the highest return (over life of the funds analyzed) is 44% PVCMX, 46% JHEQX, 6% VTSMX, and 4% PRPFX.
Throw in the fund I mentioned in the original thread, HSFAX, and that replaces most of PVCMX.
Portfolio Visualizer second efficient frontier analysis

Excellent topic @JD_co
As you realize, PRPFX wasn’t a recommendation. But I was struck by how close that +6.98% was to your hypothetical 7% goal. Like you, I prefer to diversify well beyond a single fund - no matter how good it is. The biggest problem, I think, is that shorter term (5-10 years) anything can happen, and so trying to extrapolate future return armed only with a decade’s historical performance is tough and might not lead to your desired result.
As a very conservative investor, I use 3 funds only for trying to gage daily volatility and yearly return. They are not benchmarks. They are not goals. They are simply markers for what I think a conservative investor might reasonably expect to earn over time with very limited volatility. I do not own any of these.
AOK - Globally diversified. 30% equity / 70% fixed income. Relies on index funds. Low ER
TRRIX - A fund of funds from T. Rowe Price. 40% equity / 60% fixed income. Moderate ER
ABRZX - An “alternative” style investment from Invesco. Stocks, bonds, commodities (including precious metals). Attempts to hedge market risk using derivatives. ER exceeds 1%
Over the past 15 years the 3 have averaged +5.40% annually. TRRIX led the pack with a slightly better 6.07% return over that period. Sound bad? For some perspective I compared that number to T. Rowe’s short-term bond fund PRWBX. It has returned +1.86% annually over the same period.
*** I should have checked VWINX, arguably the gold standard, for conservative funds. True to form VWINX has topped all three of my afore mentioned tracking funds with a +7.06 15 year average return. However, not that much better thanPRPFX’s +6.98% return over the same period. Personally, I’d pick PRPFX over VWINX, being willing to sacrifice the 0.08% advantage enjoyed by VWINX for better inflation protection.

The main point of this exercise for me is low volatility and a "half-decent" return.
Also, how much to rely on bonds. Longer dated bonds had a bad stretch, but with rates coming down.....do you go back to them now?
Lastly - Use of derivatives, hedged funds, long-shorts, market-neutral. AQR funds, for example. Different tools are available. Do you use them?
PRPFX alone can work for some, but it too has periods of under-performance. I am not sure that 1 fund alone can be efficient.

AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/21/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (51.6%, high) & bearish became the bottom sentiment (23.7%, below average); neutral became the middle sentiment (24.7%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +27.9% (high). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (130+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (45+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks mixed (growth up, cyclicals flat), bonds up, oil down, gold up, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 67.88% (positive). Fed's Jackson Hole Conf Aug 22-24 w/Powell speaking at 10am Eastern on Fri. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1618/thread

Would you settle for only 6.98%? That’s the annualized return of PRPFX over 15 years according to M*. If I were going to own just one fund, that would be my choice. Over that 15 year period the fund’s worst year was 2008 when it lost -8.36%. Its best year was 2003 when it gained +20.45%. (These numbers came from Yahoo Finance.)

Shooting for 7% returns over time, but with very low volatility (SD). I am considering the following allocation:
PHEFX 15%
FMSDX 15%
CBLDX 15%
SWHFX 10%
PVCMX 10%
HMEZX 10%
HELO 10%
PRPFX 5%
LCORX 5%
RSIVX 5%
Can you do better? Please share your ideas.

+1.

Talking about 2000-2002 bear market and GFC, from Jan 2000 through December 2011, S&P 500 returned nearly 0. Which blend funds fared significantly better during that 12 year period?

Franklin Resources can’t seem to get out of their own way. They’ve acquired a lot of other firms during the past 5 decades. My early 403-B in the ‘70s was with Templeton Funds which was later merged into Franklin. Sir John Templeton, who founded Templeton Funds and was a class act himself, would not be cheered by this news.
Story

+1. New information.