Hi
@MJG ,
@Junkster ,
@Old_Joe MJG, you noted:
1. "
Your suggestion that “This Time is Different” rests on shaky grounds. Anyone who plays that investment style better have deep pockets and some evil desire to commit investing hari-kari. Deep pockets because it doesn’t happen all that often, and in the long run it is a Loser’s Game." and
2. "
Perhaps it is different this time and outstanding bond returns will continue to challenge equities as your post suggests that as a possibility. I consider those long odds, and I do not accept that likelihood. Taking that position is dangerous; it’s a very long shot. Anyone who does accept that shot will be either a hero or a clown."
Not sure readers here will find clarity with the two bolds above, eh? I suppose the risk is the clarity. MJG, not picking on you; only referencing what you stated.
As I write this, I consider a new thread might be appropriate just for "this time is different, eh?"
I've noted the "TTID" thought here several times since the market melt. I am not trained in any formal fashion to speak or write about this thought to be taken as serious or that I could fully prove what I sense.
NOTE: We subject our investing to include, among other criteria, a reliance on memory(s). My retained or at least surface memory seems elusive too many times. I'm not one who can name a book and a page within which contains a particular quote. My brain plainly doesn't work this way. As long as this house remains active investors, I/we have to have our brains "into" the market places and outside influences, at a minimum of weekly observations, to help define pricing trends of the short, mid and longer terms. When the passion for this ebbs, VWINX or a similar fund will likely have all of the monies.
Rolling through my thoughts at this time are several item areas relative to investing at this house.
---technology
---central bank policy(s)
---demographics (baby boomers and the young with low education and low paying jobs)
---jobs/wage growth (being jobs of consequence, monetary)
---ongoing affects upon personal budgets since the market melt
---societal unrest
---pension funds, life insurance companies (many underfunded and scratching for returns.....as in hedge funds, alt. investments, etc.)
I'll comment only about technology, as related to labor force in the U.S. Technology will continue to negatively pressure the labor force in the U.S. relative to higher wages on a broad scale. As the U.S. currently remains a consumer driven economy, this will likely have a continued affect on GDP and many of the other measures used by the economic folks. This in turn may cause central banks to maintain an easy money policy longer than they choose. This may continue to affect those who don't trust or are not invested in the markets otherwise (boomers and their CD's).
I suspect Ms. Yellen and associated folks just shake their heads on some days. Some of these folks are also relying on past charts, graphs and trends. This isn't necessary bad, but I hope they are also flexible and adaptable and not locked into past habits. 'Course there are a whole bunch of folks who haven't a clue to what may be taking place with their invested money. This same group will likely only be able to rely upon some of this money for their retirement future. If a "this time is different" lasts for 5 or
10 years or; investment returns will be affected. K. I'm too hot from outside work in a steamy Michigan environment right now. I'm going to quit this for now to cool the brain cells, as they may not be allowing me to express here properly. Not my best day for attempting to write concise thoughts.
Thank you to everyone for prior comments.
Our current investment mix: IG bonds = 52%, Equity = 48%
Bonds
---all investment grade U.S., corp. and gov't.
Equity sector breakdown
---direct healthcare related 44.6%
---U.S. centered 24.4% (blend)
---European
17.2%
---real estate
13.8%
Regards,
Catch
