https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/investors-embrace-bond-funds-before-rates-start-to-fall-6a1ff254?page=1

In pursuit of its investment objective, the Portfolio’s strategy is to invest a fixed “Target Percentage” of its net assets in each of the following investment categories: Gold 20%, Silver 5%, Swiss franc assets 10%, Real estate and natural resource stocks 15%, Aggressive growth stocks 15%, Dollar assets 35%

Global investors are bracing for further turmoil, after fears that the powerhouse US economy could be drifting towards recession sent stock markets tumbling at the end of last week. Investors in Europe, Asia and New York were spooked by US data that include worse-than-expected job numbers on Thursday, prompting concern that the world’s largest economy is in worse shape than previously thought.
The data, coupled with disappointing results from tech firms Amazon, Alphabet and Intel, led to share sell-offs at the end of last week, while Middle Eastern stocks also fell on Sunday amid persistent tension in the region. Analysts fear that any further signs of fragility in large economies could herald fresh volatility. A slowdown in Germany last month prompted analysts to warn of a recession, while a rise in interest rates by Japan’s central bank sent shares on the Nikkei index down 2,216 points, or nearly 6%, on Friday.
In the last month, the prospect of a recession in some of the world’s biggest economies has sent the cost of a barrel of Brent crude falling from almost $88 to below $78.
Closely watched economic data due this week in the US includes figures for the services sector on Monday and the unemployment claimant count on Thursday. Elsewhere, the UK is among several big economies, including China and Japan, to release service sector data on Monday.
Markets got the jitters last week after US jobs data for July showed a worse-than-expected slowdown, with 114,000 jobs created rather than the predicted 175,000. The unemployment rate increased to a three-year high of 4.3%, while US manufacturing activity also slumped, falling to an eight-month low in July as new orders tailed off.
The figures stoked anxiety that the world’s largest economy is vulnerable to a recession and may need to cut rates faster than expected to spur demand, rather than unwinding them in a more orderly fashion. So far this year, investors have grown accustomed to cooling inflation and gradually slowing employment, which appeared to be setting the scene for the Fed to begin trimming interest rates gradually.
That optimism had driven big gains in stocks: the S&P 500 is up by 12% this year, despite recent losses, while the tech-focused Nasdaq has gained nearly 12%.
But on Friday, the Nasdaq lost 2.4% to finish in correction territory – 10% off its record high, while Japanese equities recorded their worst day since the Covid-19 pandemic, with the Nikkei 225 index down 5.8%. In London, the FTSE100 blue-chip share index lost more than 120 points at one stage, down by 1.5%. Europe’s main stock indices also declined on Friday, with European technology stocks falling to their lowest level in more than six months. France’s CAC 40 hit its lowest level since last November, down more than 1%, while Germany’s DAX lost 2%.
In the US, Uber, Airbnb, Hilton International and Coca-Cola are among the big firms posting financial results this week. European bellwether stocks such as the Italian insurer Generali and Deutsche Telekom, will also report this week.
While shares slid, gold hit a new record on Friday as investors flocked to safe-haven assets. The US dollar weakened, lifting the pound by 0.5% to $1.28, and the euro by 1.2% to $1.092.

@catch22, thank you for the data.
I have 3 bond funds in my portfolio that I have been putting maturing CD and treasury money into since late 2023. CSOAX has returned 5.2% YTD. RSIIX 4.8% and CBLDX 4.4%. I believe duration in that order. All on pace to outperform CDs and treasuries. I like CSOAX because it is a well-run multisector fund which M* labels a HY bond fund right now. A great owl also. RSIIX and CBLDX have remarkably nice trend lines showing little volatility. I, personally, would not stick with short duration bonds at this time with rates ready to move, but I am no expert.

A 2023 pretax underwriting profit of $3.6 billion, reversing a $1.9 billion underwriting loss reported for 2022 at Berkshire’s personal auto insurance operation, GEICO,

Like the rest of the auto-insurance industry, Geico was hit by sharply higher claims costs in 2022. It responded by raising premiums, which were up an average of 17% per policy in 2023. That increase, plus sharp cuts in expenses, including for advertising, helped restore profitability in 2023.

The head of Berkshire’s insurance business, Ajit Jain, acknowledged the challenges at the conglomerate’s annual meeting last May [2023], saying “Geico’s technology needs a lot more work than I thought it did.” He noted that Geico had “more than 600 legacy systems that don’t really talk to each other.” Geico, he added, is trying to compress that to no more than 15 or 16 systems.
The underinvestment in technology that led to that tangle looks like an unusual unforced error by Buffett. He didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Geico declined to comment.

A key reason car insurance costs are rising so fast right now has to do with how the industry is regulated. ...
If insurers are deemed to profit too heavily, regulators can make them return money to customers. ... At the height of pandemic lockdowns in 2020, when many cars sat idle, insurers returned almost $13 billion to customers through dividends, refund checks and premium reductions for policy renewals ...
When the pandemic shut down most economic activity, it messed up insurers’ ability to use the past to predict the future. ...
[I]n the second half of 2021 ... The prices of cars and parts were jumping and drivers were back on the roads and crashing left and right after a hiatus behind the wheel. "You went from this period of incredible profitability to incredible losses in the blink of an eye," ... “Everyone was together in significantly pushing for rate increases.” ...
[California's insurance] regulator did not start approving insurers’ requests to raise rates until near the end of 2022. The backlog grew so large that the average wait time for approvals was longer — by several months — than the six-month policies that insurers wanted to sell.
[Calif. was slowest but other states also very slow]
In 2021, insurers’ personal auto businesses started recording losses. [2021: $4B, 2022: $33B, 2023: $17B] ... many companies still need to raise prices to make up for those bad years.

Warren Buffett appears to have soured on stocks, letting cash soar at his Berkshire Hathaway firm to nearly $277bn and selling a large chunk of its stake in Apple, even as the conglomerate posted a record quarterly operating profit.
Berkshire sold about 390m Apple shares in the second quarter, on top of 115m shares from January to March, as Apple’s stock price rose 23%. It still owned about 400m shares worth $84.2bn as of 30 June.
The cash stake grew to $276.9bn from $189bn three months earlier largely because Berkshire sold a net $75.5bn of stocks. It was the seventh straight quarter Berkshire sold more stocks than it bought.
Second-quarter profits from Berkshire’s dozens of businesses rose 15% to $11.6bn, or about $8,073 per class A share, from $10.04bn a year earlier.
Nearly half of that profit came from underwriting and investments in Berkshire’s insurance businesses.

Personal observation:
Would these be the same insurance companies that claim they are losing money?

Berkshire often lets cash build up when it can’t find whole businesses or individual stocks to buy at fair prices. Its cash may also signal concerns about the broader US economy – many investors view Berkshire as a proxy for it.
Government data on Friday that showed slowing job growth and the highest unemployment rate since October 2021 prompted some analysts to project multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in September.
But Berkshire’s returns from short-term treasuries should decline once rate cuts begin.
“We’d love to spend it, but we won’t spend it unless we think we’re doing something that has very little risk and can make us a lot of money,” Buffett said at Berkshire’s 4 May annual meeting, referring to Berkshire’s cash.
Since mid-July, Berkshire has also sold more than $3.8bn in shares in Bank of America, its second-largest stock holding.
Buffett remains a big Apple fan, reflecting the iPhone maker’s strong pricing power and committed customer base.
He said at the meeting that he expected Apple to remain Berkshire’s largest stock investment, but selling made sense because the 21% federal tax rate on the gains would probably grow.