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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Stocks haven't gone anywhere for 1 1/2 years
    Links would help, or if you could say exactly what you were looking at on M*.
    Here's a M* chart comparing FUSEX, VOO, IVV, and SPY over the month of June (June 1 through June 30th).
    It shows what you described. Closing values for the an initial $10K in the funds were:
    FUSEX - $10,025.69.
    VOO    - $10,025.32 (37 cents less)
    IVV      - $10,025.24 (45 cents less)
    SPY    - $10,025.48 (21 cents less)
    But those are NAV returns, and the ETF returns are all within about a 0.002 share rounding error. To see that these are NAV returns, look at the June monthly returns for VOO and SPY on M* here and here, respectively.
    Scroll to Trailing Total Returns, and click on the Monthly tab. This will give you returns to the end of last month, i.e. to June 30th. The first data column has the one month returns, i.e. June returns.
    These pages show:
    VOO (price) 0.32%
    VOO (NAV) 0.25% (this matches the return shown in the graph - $25.32/$10K
    SPY (price) 0.35%
    SPY (NAV) 0.25% (this matches the return shown in the graph - $25.48/$10K)
    You appear to have posted the returns from the graph. As just shown, those are NAV returns, not price returns.
    The differences among the returns shown on the graph (45 cents or less) amount to noise. That $10K bought around 50 shares of each ETF. The closing price could have been rounded up or down as much as half a cent. So the spread due to rounding on the final price alone can be as much as a penny times 50 shares, or 50 cents.
  • Are You Ready For The Most Bullish Day Of The Year? July 1
    Yup, we were up 0.19% today, 7/1/16. Break out the champagne.
  • Stocks haven't gone anywhere for 1 1/2 years
    >> if one looks at market return (what an actual investor would get) as opposed to NAV return,
    What I posted was M* growth of $10k. Presumably what an actual investor would get investing $10k at the start date and going to the market close of the end date. No? Am I not getting something? Not NAV so far as I can tell but supposedly actual performance.
    I can go back farther of course to see exactly what obtains. Did not to me seem rounding error necessarily.
    Ah; well, here is ytd, investing $10k on Jan 1, so far as M* knows:
    S&P 500 TR USD - just under $406 gain
    FUSEX - just under $402
    VFIAX - just over $404
    VOO - just over $381 wtf
    SPY - just under $396
    Tracking? Plus ER?
  • Stocks haven't gone anywhere for 1 1/2 years

    If you are looking for a mutual fund that plays stock market pullbacks automatically you might wish to study CTFAX to see if its strategy might interest you and it might be a strategy to incorporate within one's own portfolio to take advantage of stock market movement.
    I have always felt that this fund was designed by the marketing department - I felt that way when it was first announced, and upon rereading the prospectus, I still feel that way. I may post more about the fund at some point in another thread.
    Here I'll stick with how it dealt with the Brexit pullback. Its basic problem is that it is not allowed to reverse course for 31 days. (That appears to be out of concern about triggering the wash sale rule.)
    It decreased its equity exposure down to 20% (from 25%) in early June (with the S&P 500 rising above 2100). Consequently it was not allowed to increase its equity exposure for the rest of the month, even as the S&P retraced its path below 2100, and even went below 2000 on June 27th.
    Had the market not moved so fast, the fund would have increased its equity holdings to 30% at that point, and gradually sold off equities as the market resumed its upward path. Instead, it just sat there. At least if it did what the prospectus required.
    It is worth reiterating - the 31 day "cooling off period" is strictly for tax reasons. The prospectus offers no tactical justification.
  • Stocks haven't gone anywhere for 1 1/2 years
    Not fighting here either, just interpreting "stocks have been flat" differently.
    In my mind, it's equivalent to saying "the stock market's been flat, so there wasn't any point in having investing in stocks" (regardless of whether one used funds or individual stocks).
    Regarding the spread: A spread of 45 cents on $10K is 0.0045%. On a share price around $200 (IVV), that's less than a penny. It's just rounding.
    But if one looks at market return (what an actual investor would get) as opposed to NAV return, the differences are more marked. I compared FUSEX, VOO, VFIAX, and S&P 500 TR. (M* data for month ending 6/30/16). The only one that had a different return is VOO (at 0.32% vs. 0.26% for the others).
    Recognizing that VOO and VFIAX are two different share classes of the same portfolio (not two identical portfolios, but a single portfolio), and that they have identical ERs, the only explanation for the deviation would seem to be market return vs. NAV return.
  • Stocks haven't gone anywhere for 1 1/2 years
    >> why not just use indexes themselves ... ?
    A liking for actual investor return based on plausible behavior, rather than theory, that's all. (For when someone says 'stocks have been flat' blah blah.) Not picking a fight with you of all people. I want to know what would happen to my $10k if I go to Fido and buy whatever the last day of the year, or the first day of the next, and the gain or loss as of CoM at any given close. That's the only reason.
    Interesting that the $10k-growth spread over the last month among SPY, FUSEX, VOO, and IVV is 45 cents, with Fido on top --- above Vanguard by 37 of those cents. Huh.
  • Aston Funds to liquidate five funds (incl. ASTON/River Road Independent Value Fund)
    I did like MikeM, bought when it opened, sold it late 2013 for a decent gain because I found his emphasis on PM stocks and how the market was "rigged" unimpressive. I generally think that managers who claim that the market is rigged mean that they just don't know how to invest in it which, to his credit, he seems to recognize now, according to David: "Given recent developments, he doesn't know when we'll next see a "normal" investing environment. Central banks are almost certain to follow free money policies, which only reward speculators, for the foreseeable future."
    I respect that. He's saying he doesn't understand this market and isn't comfortable with it, so, if I understand him right, he's letting his fund be shut down despite respectable AUM. If more managers had that attitude, the investing world would be a better place.
  • Stocks haven't gone anywhere for 1 1/2 years
    I got the S&P 500 Total Return performance from the M* chart of VTSMX where I added the S&P 500 as a benchmark. Here's the link again for that chart. You can read the S&P 500 total return ending value for the period in the chart (Dec 31, 2014 to June 29, 2016). It's $10,279.39 (2.79% return).
    Here's the same result using a chart for FUSVX.
    Cash drag (due to UIT reinvestment rules) is a problem found in only a few ETFs like SPY. But all ETFs have another problem in measuring market performance. Their prices don't match their NAVs - so any pretend purchase (which by definition of "purchase" uses the purchase price) results in performance data that differs from the market.
    For example, the YTD (price) return for SPY as of June 30th (M* data) is 3.82%, while the NAV YTD return is 3.74%.
    Other problems using index funds as proxies for market performance are tracking error due to embedded expenses, and tracking error due to, well, inaccurate tracking (e.g. portfolios that don't exactly replicate the index).
    With all these (admittedly minor) errors, why not just use indexes themselves to measure market performance? After all, that's what indexes are designed for. And index total return figures are just as easy to pull out of Morningstar (or Yahoo, or ...) as are fund return figures. See links above.
  • Stocks haven't gone anywhere for 1 1/2 years
    I cited M* for S&P 500 TR from 12/31/14 close (aka New Year's Day, 2015) to 6/29/15 as 2.79%. Agreed it's not nothing, but it's not 3.73% either.
    Since SPY is a unit investment trust that can only reinvest dividends quarterly, it suffers from cash drag, which can actually improve performance when the market dips. (It reinvests dividends later, after the market has gone done for the quarter.) That's one reason why I wouldn't use SPY as a benchmark.
    In any case, it appears you're using Yahoo's adjusted close figures for 6/29/16 and 1/2/15. (266.66/199.21) That's a common off-by-one error. Somewhat like saying that we're in the 20th century because our years begin 20xx. It's forgetting that the first century started with a 0, not with 1(000).
    One needs to start with the final price before the period begins (i.e. 12/31/14). Then, the closing price on 1/2/15 (relative to the 12/31/14 close) tells you how much you made by holding your stock for the first trading day of the year.
    No yahoo to it. I was looking at M* to see what happened if I bought $10k worth of SPY the first day of 2015. That's all.
    If you no likee SPY, that's cool.
    If I bought FUSVX the day before, right, I have made $275, actually a hair under. (SPY made $266, a hair under, as you note; some intervals it does better, as cash drag works both ways sometimes.)
    This is for yesterday close; not including today's nice runup.
    I know about birthday math, yes.
    Don't know where your figs come from, but for idiot-resistant simplicity I just go to M* and use either SPY or FUSVX, sometimes both, and do it from pretend purchase day with settlement at market close. No 'needs to start with'.
  • Thank you Junkster for the Perfect Investment - High Yield Muni Bonds
    I'd also like to thank Junkster for previous favorable comments about PRHYX (its global counterpart RPIHX is also excellent) and PREMX; both have been great this year, and also long-term.
    Got into PREMX in '10. Still a large holding for me, though I hold much less than I once did. Rates are nuts, around the world--- and currencies! Jay-zus. PREMX up 11.88 YTD. But the value is in the long-term. I originally bought at $13.26. We'll never see THAT again, but in the meantime, I can't even count the total monthly divs. that fund has paid me over 6 years.
  • Aston Funds to liquidate five funds (incl. ASTON/River Road Independent Value Fund)
    Hi David. I bought the fund when it opened with high expectations and sold it, I think towards the end of 2013 or early 2014. I haven't paid much attention to it since, but my memory for selling was because of it's early and very high stake in mining stocks. That hasn't changed. A quick look at ARIVX portfolio in M* still shows it's 3 top holdings as AGI, PAA, NGD. M* says ARIVX has 11.4% in stocks. The 3 PM stocks I show are 6.6% of the portfolio.
    These 3 stocks are on a tear this year and likely are the reason for good YTD and 1 year returns. But the previous 3 years, PM stocks under performed the general small cap value index by a large margin, AGI down -25% in '13, -34% in 14' -45% in '15. PAA -31%, -9%, -13%. NGD -50%, -10%, -35%. If Cinnamond held PM stocks, which I'm guessing he did, through those years he bet wrong. He picked poorly - at least his timing was poor.
    Like I said, I have not followed the fund in quite a while. My memory 3 years ago is the manager was heavily weighted miners and sat on heavy losses because of that. This look at his portfolio through M* shows that hasn't changed. The difference now, 4-5 years later is those stocks are finely having their day. But that was way to early a bet in my book.
    As far as the funds coloration to PMs, isn't that just an effect of cash having a low coloration to PMs. His stocks being over 50% PMs on the other hand...
  • Stocks haven't gone anywhere for 1 1/2 years
    Eerily similar to 2011, the dividend payers are leading the way, and certainly much more than the title gives credit...AT&T at +28% YTD?
  • Stocks haven't gone anywhere for 1 1/2 years
    Stocks have declined / made little upward progress when certain elements signal overvaluation / deterioration and coordination.
    Since 1924, mean reversion statistically has occurred when there have been consecutive years of S&P 500 performance over the fixed "valuation baseline" * ( recent consecutive string 2012, 2013, 2014, ). Quantitative price based variable # 1 https://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2015/11/14/market-map-model-tactical-asset-allocation-using-low-expense-index-etfs-2015/
    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hsBqvv3SUmHKBV5G0SUcFQpGaSf9nNlzDbT3W8hXGo8/edit
    Economic conditions index falling below threshold removes "economic" market support
    ( conditions still positive ): https://docs.google.com/document/d/1IqXuggnKY7fDH-i_96uMIOlmhzS7ei-dreUZ_8dpatc/edit?usp=sharing
    An inversion of the yield curve can correlate to larger forward market declines vs. declines during normal yield curve structure ( during model cash signals ):
    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1QkFJRNjd3TTEwDPUwXcCjd7toGaN_mxix5-nSN-kdig/edit?usp=sharing
    *
  • FMI Funds to reopen the FMI Large Cap Fund and the FMI Common Stock Fund
    Thank you for this heads up. I have a Fido brokerage account and I'm being shown that there's a 1.53% load on FMIHX (FMI Large Cap). Anyone else seeing this?
  • Aston Funds to liquidate five funds (incl. ASTON/River Road Independent Value Fund)
    Hi, Ted.
    Sorry, no. I wasn't addressing the question of the fund's total return. Mike's arguments were that the stocks in the portfolio were weak performers and that the fund was both cursed and blessed (depending on time frame) by Mr. Cinnamond's precious metal investments.
    I'm certainly aware that the fund's absolute returns substantially trail its peers over the past five years. On the other hand, looking at raw returns without looking at volatility is delusional since we know that volatility is a key determinant of investor behavior (mostly self-destructive). On that basis, the fund captured about 40% of its peers' annualized five-year returns and experienced 41% of their volatility.
    Back to writing!
    David
  • Stocks haven't gone anywhere for 1 1/2 years
    I cited M* for S&P 500 TR from 12/31/14 close (aka New Year's Day, 2015) to 6/29/15 as 2.79%. Agreed it's not nothing, but it's not 3.73% either.
    Since SPY is a unit investment trust that can only reinvest dividends quarterly, it suffers from cash drag, which can actually improve performance when the market dips. (It reinvests dividends later, after the market has gone done for the quarter.) That's one reason why I wouldn't use SPY as a benchmark.
    In any case, it appears you're using Yahoo's adjusted close figures for 6/29/16 and 1/2/15. (266.66/199.21) That's a common off-by-one error. Somewhat like saying that we're in the 20th century because our years begin 20xx. It's forgetting that the first century started with a 0, not with 1(000).
    One needs to start with the final price before the period begins (i.e. 12/31/14). Then, the closing price on 1/2/15 (relative to the 12/31/14 close) tells you how much you made by holding your stock for the first trading day of the year.
  • Stocks haven't gone anywhere for 1 1/2 years
    Huh? $10k into SPY New Year's day of last year is now worth $373 more as of close yesterday, more as of close today, looks like. Not much, sure, but not nothing.
  • Aston Funds to liquidate five funds (incl. ASTON/River Road Independent Value Fund)
    Hi, Mike.
    I was curious about your observation so went back to check the numbers. The stocks in ARIVX have returned approximately 92% YTD, 50% over the trailing twelve months and 13% over the past three years. For comparison, the Vanguard SCV index returned 5.3, -1.7 and 9.4%. That assumes cash levels of 90, 80 and 75% for those three time periods. I don't have a firm grasp on the 5-year cash average - it looks to be in the mid60s - so I didn't want to venture an estimate there. If you accept mid60s, then the stocks have returned about 10%/year, about in-line with the index. At one level, it seems that his stocks have substantially and pretty consistently outperformed.
    I hadn't thought much about precious metals. Mr. Cinnamond's argument when we last discussed it was that he wasn't particularly thrilled by gold but the mining stocks were getting hit so badly that they were among the few passing his value screen. He suggested that he actually could have justified a bigger position but wasn't comfortable with it. At the end of 2014, gold and silver stocks represented about 8% of the portfolio and about 33% of the stocks in the portfolio. There were four stocks, two of which remain in the portfolio and he subsequently added two more. They represent about 7.5% of the portfolio and about 70% of his stock holdings. The fund has a really low correlation to precious metals (0.34 to DBP, the PowerShares Precious Metals ETF) so I'm reluctant to praise or blame the fund's stake in such stocks.
    David
  • Thank you Junkster for the Perfect Investment - High Yield Muni Bonds
    In junk corps I hold WAHYX and CHBAX after selling IVHIX. I still think junk will see double digit returns in 2016 but I hold only 30% in junk corporates. That is very, very light for me. That is because they are more volatile than normal this year and also because they have been so dependent on oil. I would like to get heavier if the market cooperates. In bank loan I replaced SAMBX and EVFAX with RSFYX.