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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Waiting for the smoke to clear?
    We had some huge moves since the 2/11 bottom that can't be ignored most notably in oil. All bottoms unfold differently. But if this is the bottom it would be one of the more stealth of all time in stocks. We have yet to see a large breadth thrust day/days in stocks that occurs right at/near the bottom. I am woeful at predicting and fortunately predicting/forecasting is not part of my trading process. But if I had to play that game of predicting I would say 2/11 was the bottom but we may go back close to those lows but not breach them. I will say though if the consensus that 2/11 is not the bottom then it most likely was and we just continue onward and upward.
    Edit I sure don't like healthcare/biotech. So using me as a contrarian tool that may be a positive for all those suffering from the decline in that sector.
  • Waiting for the smoke to clear?
    Since 2/11, the largest "down days" have been characterized by high volume trading, the largest "up days" have been characterized by relatively light volume trading. This is not the profile of a sustainable rally coming off a true bottom. Ergo, I think this is phony upside, without staying power. Analysts continue to quietly adjust Q1 earnings downward. Once disappointing Q1 figures start to get posted next month, it wouldn't surprise me to see that all of this has been levitation, and that it proves to have only been preparation for a second leg down.
    On the other hand, I'm a little like Ed S. in the monthly commentary--- nothing much happening in the stock or bond world makes sense to me any more. Just basically shuffling this and that around, so I'll be better prepared for whatever does happen next, and trying as best as I can to turn off the useless noise/nonsense.
  • Waiting for the smoke to clear?
    A common refrain I see here, there, and everywhere. By the time the smoke clears it could be a year or longer down the road and the markets that much higher. After the 2009 bottom it was years before many ventured back into the markets if ever. The news is the gloomiest after major bottoms and prices have zoomed higher. So I guess the question is how many feel 2/11 was not just A bottom but THE bottom for oil, stocks, and junk bonds as well as a low in 10 year Treasury yields?
  • Zack's: best 4 balanced funds?
    @Crash & MFO Members: Here's how U.S. News & World Report which uses Zack's, along with M*, Lipper, S&P Capital IQ, and The Street to arrive at a consensus ranks the four funds listed in Crash's link.
    Regards,
    Ted
    ABALX: #5
    TRPBX: #22
    FBALX: #12
    FSGNX #87
  • Traders Plow Record Cash Into Junk Bond ETF As Tone Improves
    G, from the article about the surge in August and October. The h0A0 *surged* less than 1% in the August move and only 3.6% in the October rally. The greatest surge in 2014 was 4%. This recent move including today's gain will be around 6%. A nice move in so short of a time. One of the rules in trading is when markets do something out of the ordinary it's time to buy or sell depending on that out of the ordinary catalyst. We saw that out of the ordinary up day in oil last month and since then it has been up and away for junk and stocks. It is looking more and more like 2/11 was THE bottom. Still nothing surprises me and I find it best to trade with an empty mind and with no opinion. In the meantime, I am 100% junk in my taxable and 80% in my IRA. Tomorrow's reaction to the employment report may require a change in the above percentages.
  • Gundlach's DoubleLine Plans To Shutter Its Equities Growth Fund
    On a dollar-weighted basis, the impact on industry performance figures is de minimis.
    Just as I don't look at inflated (unweighted) expense ratios - 1.25% for the average fund vs. 0.71% for the average dollar (2013) - I don't pay much heed to all the noise from short-lived, scrawny funds.
    http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/researchpapers/Fee_Trend.pdf
    While these petty funds don't move the industry needle, they can affect fund families' reputations that are built on high star ratings. For example, T. Rowe Price touts over 60 4 and 5 star funds.
  • Traders Plow Record Cash Into Junk Bond ETF As Tone Improves
    Pimco and Alliance Bernstein are now bullish on junk, but Bill Gross and Doubleline (Gundlach and Bonnie Baha) are still negative:
    bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-03/pimco-wades-into-junk-as-doubleline-warns-danger-still-lurks
  • David Snowball's March Commentary Is Now Available
    Thanks for the info Ted, but I prefer my 1 stop shopping at Charles Schwab. Well, 2 stops I guess. I still have a 401k with TRP. Even though BRUFX looks great, the fund is not worth buying out side my 2 existing accounts to me. Starts to become to much clutter.
    I've never visited Chicago other than a pass through at O'Hare, but I'd like to some day.
  • Gundlach's DoubleLine Plans To Shutter Its Equities Growth Fund
    Even better marketing idea - shut it down one month before M* gives it a 1* rating. (It would have been three years old on April Fool's day.)
  • David Snowball's March Commentary Is Now Available
    @BenWP & MikeM: Ben said, " I would put in a plug for the local (Indiana) talent at the Bruce Fund." The Bruce Funds office is located in Chicago at Bruce Fund Inc. 20 N Wacker Dr, Suite 2414 Chicago IL 60606. Phone: 800-872-7823
    . Bruce Fund's transfer agent is Huntington Asset Services, Inc.
    P.O. Box 6110 Indianapolis, Indiana 46206-6110. If I'm not mistaken MikeM the fund is only available through Bruce directly, suggest give them a call at the above number. So let's hear it for.....................
    Regards,
    Ted


  • Traders Plow Record Cash Into Junk Bond ETF As Tone Improves
    FYI: High-yield bond ETF has received most-ever inflows over 6 days
    HCA Holdings boosts high-yield debt offering to $1.5 billion
    Investors are sinking cash back into the largest junk-bond exchange-traded fund signaling that the rout in the market for risky corporate debt may be overdone.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-01/investors-plow-record-cash-into-junk-bond-etf-as-tone-improves
  • Fund-O-Matic
    @willmatt72: FYI: U.S. News & World Report ranks FGMNX #1 in the (IGB) Fund Category. In 30 years the fund has had only two down years, 1994 and 2013. HSCSX is ranked #8 in the (SCB) Fund Category. Bob Young's fund ranking system is based soley on momentum.
    Regards,
    Ted
    FGMNX:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/intermediate-government/fidelity®-gnma-fund/fgmnx
    HSCSX:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/small-blend/homestead-small-company-stock-fund/hscsx
  • Fund-O-Matic
    Just looked up FGMNX - rated as a "fair" fund with a score of 55 out of 100. I'll take this site with a grain of salt.
  • Fund-O-Matic
    I enjoy Max Funds as a quick-take. May not be current and certainly not the full story. I don't know of any other sites that even attempt to evaluate hot money. That has a big effect if you're a long term investor. Killed MFLDX (along with a lot of other problems).
    Added 3/4: (1) I've held mostly the same 8-10 core funds for anywhere from 10-25 years with a few good firms. (2) I'll also take an occasional long-shot (speculative play) on a very badly beaten up fund as I did with OPGSX in September '15 and PRLAX 6-8 weeks ago. These spec plays are not intended to be held more than a few months to a few years - time to bounce a lot higher if the educated guess works out. (Yes - they can also fall, so weighing potential upside and downside is crucial)
    The point here: For neither of the above types of purchases is the opinion of Max Funds, *M or MarketWatch useful or given much consideration. For the first type (core holdings) I want low fees, stable competent management, good service and annual reports that are comprehensive and readable. For the second (speculative plays) I want a fund that's been hammered hard over several years (probably down 25% or more over the last year). And Nobody loves it anymore. Than it's a matter of trying to become educated on the the fund's investments, reasons for its poor performance lately, macroeconomic conditions that might help going forward - and than taking a plunge, usually with only 2-5% of total holdings.
    Sorry so long winded. Guess I've strayed from Max's original point on Max funds. But my point is you need to take all these with a grain of salt. Don't expect them to always point you in the best direction. Use your own pointer.
  • David Snowball's March Commentary Is Now Available
    The small cap value universe has been proven academically and empirically to produce alpha premium above the other stock universes over a 90 year period.
    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kToqLWLISRk4n4YnSzv1hT5kBN54l5CvhwGgDwJKPJI/edit?usp=sharing
    etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-small-caps-still-outperforming?nopaging=1.
    Investing in the equity markets doesn't have to be complicated and an investor doesn't necessarily need more than a handful of funds representing the equity universe. An investor in the "young" demographic of the investment "lifecycle" ( age 20 - 50 ) can exploit the maximum asset accumulation into retirement phase and beyond, by first building a core position in small cap value, and then over the course of the career, they can diversify into other stock universes ( mid cap growth producing the next best alpha premium and also being somewhat non correlated to value; performance of value and growth trading off performance "leads" over the course of market cycles ( see P. O'Shaughnessy and T. Carlisle).
    Further risk mitigated, maximal asset accumulation has been achieved through the use of small cap value ( and also mid cap growth ) and tactical asset allocation modelling
    https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1pQuBfbPd18ca0G-KiZc5FIWNMx0pNa87INgsLjEwuzY/edit?usp=sharing
    https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1C37CJypoxHWHB09e3g25ewOGjP83wDZhj5j6tlrLJoA/edit?usp=sharing
    This is a new frontier of asset management science.
    (Fortunately or unfortunately) this type of minimal, systematic alpha producing process can be automated and eliminates the need for human, objectively derived allocation decision processes ( "The Robot's Are Coming " )
  • David Snowball's March Commentary Is Now Available
    @David & MFO Members: "Over the course of the full market cycle, the small cap fund -inclusive of growth, core, and value - with the highest Sharpe ratio, a measure of whether you're getting compensated for the risks you're taking - is Intrepid. It's #1 of 410. VTSCX" I believe David made a symbol error, it's VSTCX if I'm not mistaken.
    Regards,
    Ted
    M* Ratings % Risk VSTCX:
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/ratings-risk.action?t=VSTCX&region=usa&culture=en_US
  • David Snowball's March Commentary Is Now Available
    Hi, Kevin.
    I know. The problem is that small caps (well, stocks) are volatile and I'm rotten at timing the market or making other tactical allocation moves. Mostly I've got too much else going on to spend a lot of time with assessing the Russell 2K's p/e or peg or whatever, and partly I've got a spectacular track record for guessing wrong. As a result, I try to focus my non-retirement portfolio on multi-asset managers; that is, folks who have the freedom to dodge and weave on my behalf. Sometimes that's an overtly multi-asset fund like FPACX or BBALX, sometimes it's a fund with a broad mandate (Seafarer can invest in companies domiciled in the developed world with substantial earnings in the developing one and such stocks represent something like half of the portfolio) and sometimes it's absolute-value guys who say "if it's not a compelling value, I'm sitting on cash."
    There are just a couple focused equity funds (Grandeur Peak, Artisan International Value, Wasatch Microcap Value) where I think the managers are doing something useful and distinctive. On whole, my non-retirement portfolio is about 50% growth (half US, half international) and 50% income (Price Spectrum Income, Matthews Asia Strategic Income, RiverPark Short Term High Yield and so on).
    To be clear: I'm not preaching that that's The One Right Way. It's just what allows me to make a little money, sleep well and focus elsewhere.
    Over the course of the full market cycle, the small cap fund -inclusive of growth, core, and value - with the highest Sharpe ratio, a measure of whether you're getting compensated for the risks you're taking - is Intrepid. It's #1 of 410. VSTCX is about 120th, just behind NAESX and VISVX. Its correlation with those two funds is .99 and .98, respectively. In addition to a higher Sharpe ratio, Intrepid has higher absolute returns over the market cycle (through 1/30/16) than does VTSCX and a substantially lower correlation to the small cap indexes.
    Pinnacle isn't far behind Intrepid at 15th by Sharpe with a much lower correlation to any of the above, though also with lower absolute returns than Intrepid or Vanguard. The Aston fund hasn't been around long enough to have full market cycle data, though its five-year profile is strikingly similar to ICMAX.
    Up-cycles present a different picture and these guys get left in the dust. But since I don't get to invest just during up-cycles, I don't tend to focus there.
    In short, what I find attractive is the combination of higher returns and lower volatility over meaningful market periods.
    David
  • NextShares’ New Product Combines Active Management With ETFs
    I still think this is a solution in search of a problem. This "hybrid that combines what some consider the best parts of the actively managed fund with an ETF" also seems to combine some of the worst attributes.
    Like an ETF (and unlike a mutual fund) you're subject to a bid/ask spread (generally paying more than NAV to buy, and selling for less). And it is subject to broker commissions.
    It does avoid market tracking error (where the ETF price deviates from the underlying portfolio's NAV) by using the end of day NAV - but that also means that the pricing (aside from bid/ask spread) is like a mutual fund. Even if you sell mid-day in a falling market, you'll get the end-of-day price. So from a pricing perspective, ISTM this is the worst of both worlds - the cost of the spread without the attribute of instantaneous pricing.
    The cost difference (vs. the mutual fund) is misleading. The article suggests that the ETMF cost should be lower because it has no 12b-1 fee. But neither does the share class (EIERX) to which it is comparing the ETMF.
    Both ETMF and mutual fund are benefiting from temporary fee waivers, though the mutual fund waiver is greater. Thus the difference in costs is artificially small. The cost benefit of the ETMF (sans waivers) would be larger. However, that just means the even the ETMF would cost more than the stated 0.65% ER, to wit 0.83% - hardly compelling for a large cap blend fund.
  • NextShares’ New Product Combines Active Management With ETFs
    FYI: (This is a follow-up article)
    The mutual fund industry’s latest attempt to deal with the rising threat of the exchange traded fund comes from Eaton Vance (EV).
    On Friday, the Boston fund giant’s subsidiary, NextShares, launched a brand new structured product called an exchange traded managed fund, or ETMF, a hybrid that combines what some consider the best parts of the actively managed mutual fund with an ETF.
    The first ETMF, Eaton Vance Stock NextShares (EVSTC), invests in the same portfolio as $95 million Eaton Vance Stock Fund (EAERX), an equity mutual fund that holds mostly large U.S. stocks. Both are managed by Charles Gaffney. The mutual fund has outperformed the S&P 500 index for the past one-, three- and 10-year periods
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etfs/nextshares-new-product-combines-active-management-with-etfs/
    M* Snapshot EAEFX:
    http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=EAERX