There is a growing amount of target vol products on Wall Street They hedge dynamically. They sold a lot when the volatility blew out. Now they might be buying in again. Btw i don’t believe any report which claims to explain why the market does what it does. You should throw my explanation as exhibit 1 into the toilet.

@soupkitchen and others. You might check out the VOX podcast of May 13 titled “The world after Ozempic.” I became interested after a young family member got a bootleg version from an online shop. He wasn’t willing to change his diet or do any exercise. The podcast clearly makes the link between the crummy food industry and the growing success of these drugs.

”Negatives: below 4360 the fund is not protected as it is short the 4360 puts. You would be long 100% Large cap equities if the market was to head down 50%. (however unlikely a scenario it is in such a short time frame, it is a tail risk) …
Thanks @Devo
I sometimes compare investment risk to the ice that covers local lakes in winter - some a mile or more across. Generally speaking, a half-inch of “good” ice will support a 150+ lb human (quality can vary). And were I to traverse the lake 100 times on a half-inch of ice, chances are I’d make it across safely every time. (Who? Me worry?) However, if something unexpected occurs (maybe the ice has been weakened by numerous freeze - thaw cycles) and I fall through into 200 feet of cold water, I might decide crossing on a half-inch of ice, however small the risk, just isn’t a risk I care to take.

+1.

@Crash
For some reason M* portfolio manager does not list even a $1 as the asset price for most Schwab MMF. ( Some of Fido's work fine) I have to do a manual transposition to another symbol or just put in "cash"

update:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141819/000089418924004910/crossingbridgesupplementna.htm

Seems like a good time to build a replicating portfolio for LCORX. Devo describes the process at this dinky linky.
Portfolio Visualizer gives us ten free years of data, and over that period of time LCORX shows a beta of .49. So we're going to test LCORX against a portfolio that is 51% cash and 49% SPY--I think that's the right breakdown.
And here are the results: YADL (yet another dinky linky.)
To get the betas to match over time I had to adjust the breakdown to 50/50/ And here is the result for that.

It is interesting he makes such a big deal out of GLP-1 but apparently has only a small % in Lilly and no NOVO. While detailed portfolio stats are not available except for 12/31 the most recent Quarterly fact sheet shows a persistent 17% in healthcare. In December it was similar but only LT 2% Lilly
Over weight technology, it will be interesting to see how he is going to be les risky than the market. The portfolio ( other than the utilities) seems similar to a lot of "High Quality" growth funds
It fell just as much as SP500 early this month

@Observant, I am glad you read the 2 Options articles I wrote. In addition, I am curious if you took @wabac lead and replicated the portfolios. You might want to do that for not just JHQAX but also JHQDX and JHQTX which are the 2 of the 3 funds of the same ilk run by JPAM.
Here's some numbers to consider. Assume all of the below to be Approximately true:
As of July 31, 2024, portfolio on their website,
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/products/jpmorgan-hedged-equity-fund-a-46637k315#/portfolio
JHQAX held about $19.7 Billion in Large Cap stocks.
They use some active management to decide on which of the stocks to hold and what to avoid. I dont know what active management they do and if it is any good for stocks.
On that date, the SPX was at 5522.
JHQAX was long $20Bn of the SPX 5170 Put, short $20Bn of the SPX 4360 Put and Short $20 Bn of the SPX 5750 Calls. This structure is called a Put spread collar.
This structure expires on Sep 30th 2024.
Somewhere around the expiry, (I know there are fixed rules but I am going with the big picture), this collar is retired and new 3 month collar is initiated.
Thus every 3 months, $20bn * 3, or $60Bn of options are traded, or about $240bn a year for a portfolio of about $20bn in stocks. That, as you might suspect, has transaction costs in terms of bid-offer paid to market makers of options, clearing fees paid to exchanges, etc.
Now, if you look at the Beta of JHQAX to SPY, its around 44%
And if you create the replication basket of 44% spy and 56% tbills, you will notice the portfolio is basically a replica of JHQAX (give or take).
So, my question back, is why pay the 85 bp in fees per year, and then have the fund go through hundreds of billions of dollars of options transactions, when all can be accomplished with a low weight SPX portfolio.
Positives of JHQAX: it IS long the 5170 put and were the market to drop 20%, you would feel good about holding the fund,
Negatives: below 4360 the fund is not protected as it is short the 4360 puts. You would be long 100% Large cap equities if the market was to head down 50%. (however unlikely a scenario it is in such a short time frame, it is a tail risk). Also above 5750 on the SPX, you would lose all exposure to equities.
At the end of the day, remember these JPM funds have a cool 80-90BN$ in AUM. That should tell you that large portions of the market believe these products make sense. (even if I suggest otherwise).
I hope the above is enough for now. No perfect answers. I always find it is better to play and invest a small amount. Live with it and breathe it. If you dont like what you own you will have better reasons to avoid it in the future.

A recent article in The NY Times about an Iowa pig farmer converting his farm to mushroom production states that there are 4000 factory farms in Iowa. An Iowa farmer interviewed on CNN last night said it’s good for the earth to raise beef cattle. I suspect there’s a connection between the American diet and our obesity problem. I am not neutral on the issue: I think bacon is a carcinogen and avoid animal products, processed foods, and the like.

Indeed. Having eaten beef in Europe, South America, and Asia, it tastes totally different than American beef which often has been fed all sorts of crap and given all sorts of drugs to help provide 'greater yield' compared to those other regions ... such Frankenfoods definitely play a role in the obesity problems, even if they're not necessarily processed. The same with wheat, which is engineered and grown more for 'yield' and 'cost savings' than nutritional value -- the wheat of today, especially in the USA is NOT the wheat from 200 or 1000 years ago.

@WABAC: because of DNC coming up, CNN had a documentary on with lots of scenes of the Chicago 1968 convention. Most striking thing to me and my wife was how skinny, almost scrawny, the young kids looked. The same slice of the population these days is either muscular or beefy to obese. Kids in elementary school in my day (the fifties) were not fat; this is not the case today. What has happened to cause this?
A recent article in The NY Times about an Iowa pig farmer converting his farm to mushroom production states that there are 4000 factory farms in Iowa. An Iowa farmer interviewed on CNN last night said it’s good for the earth to raise beef cattle. I suspect there’s a connection between the American diet and our obesity problem. I am not neutral on the issue: I think bacon is a carcinogen and avoid animal products, processed foods, and the like.

It's interesting--to me--to ponder the enthusiasm for this tactical-allocation fund on the ink-buying side of this site versus the disdain for option-based funds.

My initial comment was simply that I agreed with LCORX shorting the QQQ. Later, I attempted to answer questions from another poster. Honestly, I have little “enthusiasm” myself for this one. In looking around to fill a portfolio need several months ago it looked like a reasonable fit. Occupies 10% of portfolio, as do all my funds. Were I to lighten up, it is the first thing I would exit. That 10% would probably move into fixed income.
I’m 78. A pension & Social Security meet most needs. But they do not cover expenses like new vehicles, travel or home infrastructure. Hence, I continue to invest, keeping very little in cash. (Old habits die hard.) I think it is important to consider age, risk tolerance and someone’s overall situation if trying to analyze their investment choices. I believe we tend to invest in what we know best from past experience. One person’s cup of tea may appear a rancid waste to another.
I didn’t check the others @Observant1 mentions, but there are records at Yahoo for LCORX that go back much farther than 2008. (You need to click “Show more” at the bottom of the initial list of dates.) LCORX lost 27.44% in 2008. Make whatever you want of that.
Yahoo Finance

@rforno, I think people like your friend are probably rare. I'll admit that observing other people's shopping carts is not a reliable survey. But, I think the food industry will keep the GLP-1 companies well supplied with customers at least until the drugs go generic.

Agree, sadly. It's part of the American culture, I think -- but that's a whole different line of discussion.

I won't be ditching IYK any time soon.

@rforno, I think people like your friend are probably rare. I'll admit that observing other people's shopping carts is not a reliable survey. But, I think the food industry will keep the GLP-1 companies well supplied with customers at least until the drugs go generic.

Agree, sadly. It's part of the American culture, I think -- but that's a whole different line of discussion.

@rforno, I think people like your friend are probably rare. I'll admit that observing other people's shopping carts is not a reliable survey. But, I think the food industry will keep the GLP-1 companies well supplied with customers at least until the drugs go generic.

@Balu
The sordid details are in Reddit link below. There are several Reddit threads covering the issue. Gist is that Fidelity uses non standard definitions for commonly accepted terms on a wire form such as "FFC". I got docked twice for $40 and have given up on dealing with wiring money from Fidelity to Schwab. I just do a ACH pull now from Schwab. Wires from Fidelity to direct bank account work fine. Things get messed up when FFC is needed.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Schwab/comments/1dw5nl9/how_to_do_a_wire_transfer_from_fidelity_to_schwab/

TCAF talks about utilities most of the time (7% sector exposure....3x the benchmark) but still holds 5 times as much technology as of June. Important viewpoint on eventual AI beneficiary being software. 100% agree. Skate to where the puck is going.

I will still play utilities more than software companies for the AI theme. After all, software needs power for the computer to run it. :)
Besides the OEFs I own hold major software companies, so I'll defer to them for exposure.

new medication will improve lives and reduce junk food consumption.

What a strange world we live in that we have to buy expensive drugs to save us from consuming

stuff that should rarely go into our shopping carts.

I remember when 'Wheat Belly' was published 15 or so years ago and how the grain/junk food industry was playing dirty pool trying to discredit the author (a cardiologist) and plant seeds of doubt. Seeing how the industry was being so proactive in their nonsense, I presumed the book was probably on to something. But the book was eye-opening .... I went low-bad-carb for a year, lost a TON of weight, and haven't looked back. Since then i've learned the food industry will do ANYTHING to keep its customers hooked, and the pharma industry will do ANYTHING to address symptoms but not 'cure' the underlying causes ... both in the name of $$$$$$, of course.
By contrast, a longtime friend is on a GLP-1. They were never a chronic junk or processed food addict, worked out regularly, and generally had a healthy lifestyle yet struggled with weight and major appetite issues for decades. She started on GLP-1s last year and (last I heard) is down 25# and says they're feeling/looking like a new person in ways "not since college." I think GLP-1s are game changers, plus I'm seeing studies about how they're showing promise for other conditions, too.....and if GLP-1s can help metabolic issues, that can have a follow-on benefit for patients who don't need as many drugs for conditons, new medical devices, replacement knees/hips, etc. So in that regard I think Giroux is spot-on in this assessment. But it's great for patients, but bad for some companies.

TCAF talks about utilities most of the time (7% sector exposure....3x the benchmark) but still holds 5 times as much technology as of June. Important viewpoint on eventual AI beneficiary being software. 100% agree. Skate to where the puck is going.