MFOHome About Commentary Discussions Funds The Best Resources Support Us!

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Sign In Register
Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • This Investing Trend Is Your Friend—Until It Isn’t
    "Momentum makes less sense to a thoughtful, long-term investor. It also seems reckless. Essentially, you buy more of what just went up. Many successful strategies require both analytical chops and discipline.
    Following the crowd is already human nature and is a feature of bubbles."
    "But it is hard to argue with long-term results: A momentum index maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices since the summer of 1994 would have turned a $1,000 investment into $28,500 by last summer—71% more than by just owning the S&P 500. It also beat value and high-dividend baskets handily while being less-volatile."
    "That is especially relevant at the moment because tariffs could dent global economic growth while also raising domestic prices.During low growth and rising inflation periods momentum has had annualized returns of negative 13.33% and lots of volatility too, according to a 2024 study by S&P. The risk-adjusted return for a high-dividend basket of stocks, by contrast, has been basically flat under the same conditions."
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/this-investing-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-isn-t/ar-AA1BZcW6
    Observant1 in Other Investing
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    FWIW, all SELLs (per above posts) have been entered today.
    Reduced stock exposure by ~50%.
    Parking proceeds in VMRXX, FZDXX and will likely BUY a coupla new rungs on 5-yr CDs ladder that virtually guarantees a net positive TR in 2025.
    Kudos to @larryB for this thread.
    (Sadly) Timely and actionable.
    EDIT: NOT saying this strategy is correct for anyone other than me and the missus.
    BUT, our #1 goal this year, after two monster stock gain years under a REAL president, was to NOT allow the buffoon's asinine fiscal policies (read, orange brain farts) to cause us to be anything but net positive for the year on 12/31/25. And that goal has virtually been guaranteed with these moves today. Plus, we will sleep MUCH better thru year-end!
    stillers stillers in Fund Discussions
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    MSF. The 51st state will be massively BLUE! Why would he who can’t be named want to add the bluest state unless elections were a thing of the past? Unless he hasn’t thought it out.
    You think he THINKS of anything beyond his current conversation or tweet? He just ... does things, like a toddler with genetic impulse-control problems.
    rforno in Fund Discussions
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    MSF. The 51st state will be massively BLUE! Why would he who can’t be named want to add the bluest state unless elections were a thing of the past? Unless he hasn’t thought it out.
    larryB in Fund Discussions
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?

    @LarryB, from a historical perspective, what's going to be absolutely galling is that FOTUS and his people will be crowing over the next year about how 'great' America is (or 'will be') during its 250th celebration, thumping their chests for the cameras and celebrating Americana with all sorts of faux patriotic events/spectacles -- all while doing their damnest to rip us apart at home, screw the citizenry (including their base), and turning the majority of the world against us. This won't be "fiddling while Rome burns" or Nero appointing his horse as consul-crazy ..... this is "getting the symphony drunk and then playing the show in front of opening night reviewers"-level of crazy, and then complaining when the reviews are harsh.
    I'm not going entirely to cash, but I've been lightening a few positions in recent weeks to be able to buy other things that may go on 'deep' discount soon.
    rforno in Fund Discussions
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    IMHO the biggest problem is the uncertainty. What are the tariffs today? Wednesday? Next Tuesday? And because businesses cannot make long term capital allocation plans, this virtually guarantees that GDP will be below potential GDP. That's an argument against investing in stocks generally.
    But some companies can benefit. The tariffs (whether actually imposed or not) have united Canadians in their opposition to buying US products (regardless of whether their governments officially boycott or tariff US goods). This bodes well for Canadian companies that sell domestically (i.e. to Canadians).
    https://ca.style.yahoo.com/trumps-unjustified-25-tariffs-have-begun-heres-how-to-buy-canadian-during-a-trade-war-list-of-canadian-brands-to-shop-144356266.html
    And as an added bonus - once Canada is incorporated into the US, the large US market will again be open to all those Canadian companies without foreign tariffs. Just a thought for those with a longer investment horizon :-)
    msf in Fund Discussions
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    I think that the real liberation day will be when the two presidents are in handcuffed and on their way to prison. Until then my investment plan is not to lose money. Lots of safe 4% yield spots to stash our chips we can watch what’s going on in horror . I was a graduate student of history long ago and I often wonder how the history of 2025 will be written.
    larryB in Fund Discussions
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    Agreed, but...that's a mighty BIG and highly unlikely "IF".
    The buffoon will only remove/reduce the tariffs IF he can, in his f*cked up mind at least, reasonably declare victory.
    Us? It's a fiscal policy freight train being driven by a mad man. Time to get the f*ck outta the way.
    Disclaimer: All SELLs will be in IRAs and all positions being SOLD are UP 35%-95%.
    stillers stillers in Fund Discussions
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    Liberation Day? Now is that the day when the buffoon proclaims he will be able to grab women's genitals on LIVE national TV without repurcussion?
    Oh no, wait...
    Great post by @rforno.
    What to do? We are breaking a cardinal rule of our investment strategy, SELLING stocks, especially tech and small caps, to take our stock allocation BELOW the minimum % we believe one MUST keep in ANY LT investment strategy.
    That's how FEARFUL the buffoon's fiscal policies are.
    That's how much worse we think it will get before it gets ANY better.
    EDIT
    Disclaimer: All SELLs will be in IRAs and all positions being SOLD are UP 35%-95%
    ====================================
    From The Barron's Daily

    Trump Tariffs Are a Nightmare for Stock Markets. Next Quarter Could Be More Terrifying and 5 Other Things to Know Today.
    At the end of the first quarter, the S&P 500 is reeling—don’t expect a March Madness-style comeback soon.
    The benchmark index is on track for its worst quarter since 2022, largely driven by concerns about President Donald Trump’s tariff policy, and trading continued to be dismal on the final day. Things could get worse—White House advisors are considering tariffs of up to 20% on virtually all U.S. trading partners, according to The Wall Street Journal.
    There remains some hope in the market that Wednesday’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement could mark a turning point by removing the uncertainty. If the Friday jobs report continues to show a broadly healthy labor market and Tesla defies fears about its delivery figures on Wednesday, maybe sentiment could improve.
    That’s likely too optimistic. Trump’s tariffs will likely spark retaliation from other countries and it’s hard to judge where an escalating trade war will end. The probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months has risen to 35% from 20%, according to Goldman Sachs, which also forecasts a 5% fall in the S&P 500 over the next three months.
    When can investors hope to see light at the end of the tunnel? Probably not until the latter part of the year when it should become clear what the new base level of tariffs will be and the focus could shift to Trump’s planned tax cuts. By that point, the Federal Reserve could well be cutting interest rates, with the possibility of steeper reductions in reaction to any tariff-induced economic weakness.
    There is still hope for a turnaround but without a buzzer-beating reversal from Trump, the second quarter could be tough to watch.
    stillers stillers in Fund Discussions
  • Asian Markets: Stocks Sink as Trump’s Tariff Threats Weigh on Confidence
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The New York Times:
    Stocks in Japan tumbled nearly 4 percent as investors braced for a week of market turmoil caused by an expected announcement of more tariffs.
    Stocks in Asia tumbled Monday as investors braced for a week of market tumult caused by an expected announcement of more tariffs by President Trump on America’s biggest trading partners.
    Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell nearly 4 percent in early trading. Stocks in South Korea and Taiwan were down more than 2 percent. Stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China were mostly unchanged, bolstered by a report signaling that China’s export-led industrial sector continues to expand despite Mr. Trump’s initial tariffs.
    Futures on the S&P 500, which allow investors to trade the benchmark index before exchanges reopen in New York in the morning, slumped 0.5 percent on Sunday evening. On Friday, the S&P 500 dropped 2 percent on concerns about inflation and weak consumer sentiment.
    Over the weekend, Mr. Trump ramped up the pressure, threatening so-called secondary sanctions on Russia if it does not engage in talks to bring about a cessation of fighting in Ukraine. The tactic echoes similar sanctions concerning Venezuela. He said last week that any country buying Venezuelan oil could face another 25 percent tariff on its imports to the United States.
    The threats over the weekend add to tariffs of 25 percent on imported cars and some car parts set to be implemented this week, barring any last minute reprieve. That’s in addition to previously delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, as well as the potential for further retaliatory tariffs on other countries.
    .
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Other Investing
  • Private-Equity Wants a Piece of Your 401(k)
    Look, who is getting into private-equity? Vanguard
    (LinkedIn links are open - just close the Login/Signup screen)
    https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ericbalchunas_interesting-vanguard-held-discussions-with-activity-7311027525424431104-qiHw?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=android_app&rcm=ACoAAFjCY6wBccxAhzfDGLCwSkfGL97DN413bHU&utm_campaign=copy_link
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Fund Discussions
  • CDs and Money Markets
    Checking on Sunday morning, 30 March, '25:
    yield on SWVXX = 4.17%. Still attractive. Growing it for short-term use.
    Crash Crash in Fund Discussions
  • CDs and Money Markets
    Some people are better at search queries than others. So let me offer a little tip: if one is looking for a page containing an exact phrase (preferably of more than a couple of words), one can try executing a search for that precise phrase. Here, we know that the document of interest contains the phrase: Eliminate Exclusion of Interest on State and Local Bonds
    Many search engines use double quotes ("") to denote phrases. Unfortunately, Duckduckgo isn't one of them. Several of the top results it returns are not particularly helpful. But Google still seems to do a decent job of respecting quotes. Here is what a Google search returns.
    In my previous post I gave its top search result, a page that is replete with links to various documents including the doc you're looking for.
    The second result is the Barron's article that fred495 quoted. The sixth result, Cato, starts off by stating that "a copy of House Budget Committee Republicans’ draft menu of reconciliation options leaked to the press."
    That would explain why you couldn't find it under official memos. It was for internal Republican use. Also, FWIW, the House Budget Committee is not the same thing as the House Ways and Means Committee (though you won't find this GOP draft memo in either place).
    The rules of the House require that the Budget Committee’s membership be composed of five members from the Committee on Ways and Means, five members from the Committee on Appropriations, and one member from the Committee on Rules.
    https://budget.house.gov/about/committee
    msf in Fund Discussions
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    28 March, 2025:
    Asset Backed Securities recommended re: risk/reward picture.
    Crash Crash in Fund Discussions
  • Trump cuts threaten a measurement lab critical for advanced chips and medical devices
    this brings back a trump 1.0 anecdote where he could not conceive\admit to a difference between knowing how a cell phone works vs knowing how to use one.
    for MAGA, false confidence can overcome any amount of objective ignorance.
    the genius appears to mistake his cell phone for a tv remote :
    image
    a2z in Other Investing
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts

    Morning Brief
    Mark Mark in Other Investing
  • CRDBX Fund
    This fund portfolio consist of the following:
    iShares Core S&P 500 ETF-66.12%
    Direxion Daily S&P500® Bull 3X ETF-31.12%
    This week’s performance was 0%. Sound like they have gone to cash.
    Carefree in Fund Discussions
  • CDs and Money Markets
    @msf,
    I was (am) not interested in the Muni bond tax exempt matter. I want to read what you called “Menu of Options” which I presume is the same as what @fred495 called House Budget Committee document. May I get a link to it please? (I normally go to the House Ways And Means website for tax stuff but this document likely will not be there.)
    Just an FYI - In the second half of 2024, I made a post asking members to weigh in about the possibility of a future (in the current or next Congress) loss of tax- exempt status for Muni (State and Local) bonds. I do not think I received any guesses but within a day or two I contemplated the matter and asked to ignore my request. With my inept search skills, I was not able to find those posts but be assured I am not interested in that matter.
    Thanks.
    BaluBalu in Fund Discussions
  • CDs and Money Markets
    The House's January "Menu of Options" is just that - a laundry list of "some 200 ways the government could raise extra funds to offset the impact of extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts." It's a bunch of bullet item talking points with no detail. Why not also ask about the possible treatment of private activity bonds? That's listed separately in the 200 bullet point memo.
    Lots of spaghetti (with no sauce) being thrown up against a wall. Further, a month later the House passed (engrossed) H.Con.Res.14.
    For anyone who really wants to follow what's going on, the National Association of Bond Lawyers (NABL) maintains a useful page, "Tracking Tax Reform in 2025". Last update was March 28th.
    https://www.nabl.org/blogs/tax-reform-2025/
    What [the February House Resolution] Means for the Municipal Market: At this time, Republicans are still aiming to use this budget reconciliation process to address the debt ceiling. In theory, the process would need to conclude before the approach of the debt ceiling x-date, which is likely some time in or around May. This week’s vote represents a significant advance in the Republican effort to address the expirations of the TCJA in the first half of this year. While this plan is ambitious, municipal market participants should prepare for developments to occur along this timeline. Despite inclusion on the House Budget Committee’s “Menu of Options,” the tax exemption continues to enjoy broad bipartisan support, and we have heard minimal threats to the tax-exempt status of municipal bonds from congressional offices. It is worth noting, however, that details surrounding offsets and revenue raisers will likely only manifest after both chambers pass identical budget resolutions and the elimination or reduction of the tax exemption for municipal bonds remains a potential option for negotiators.
    Removing tax exempt status for muni bonds would blow a huge hole in state budgets. Red and blue states, both.
    The states with the most state and local government debt per capita are spread across the country, including both very populous states such as California and Texas as well as sparsely populated Alaska.
    ...
    As a percentage of state GDP, state and local government debt ranges from a low of 4.9 percent in Wyoming to a high of 24.7 percent in Kentucky.
    https://www.governing.com/finance/state-and-local-governments-with-the-most-debt-per-capita
    Then there's market distortion. If current bonds keep their tax exempt status, then they will command a large premium. Republicans typically oppose tax laws that create distortions. (So do many economists.) OTOH, imagine the howling from holders of existing bonds if their income suddenly becomes taxable - causing their bonds to lose significant value overnight.
    msf in Fund Discussions
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 28 March 2025. Flows remain updated through 14 March.
    Charles Charles in MFO Premium