Look out below! The average weighted price of bonds in Vanguard's Long-Term Treasury VUSTX is $110.58. If that is not a recipe for disaster somewhere down the road, I don't know what is. The average coupon is 3.67%. The actual 30-day yield is 2.29%. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the potential problems here. Just moving to intermediate-range bonds in VFIUX brings the average price down to $100.41, but there is still some disconnect with the average coupon at 2.97% vs. a yield of 1.29%. Still much safer than long-term treasuries.

Using a 4-5% withdrawal rate, the 100-age allocation could be very problematic, as it always has been. Unless there is simply more savings/investments than will ever be used, folks could find they are eating up principal much faster than their longevity will allow. Of course, not having a mortgage when retiring is a game changer, as is receiving a public pension. No mortgage AND a pension are huge. There is no 'rule of thumb' that should be applied here. It is very individualistic, and each household should spend a good amount of time planning just what 'retirement' looks like, both in terms of cash flow and life activity.

TurboTax Delux is available for $50 at Costco. The last of 1099-Div and 1099-B arrived this week and our 2015 return is now completed.

With the lack and disappearance of "steady" job prospects, ( compared to the boomer generation ) innovation in alpha producing investments, and lack of planning help available to young investor, they will have to be more DYI going forward. Robo advisors, buy and hold index investing, and 60 / 40 "glidepath" funds won't help in the accumulation of the millions of dollars needed for survival either.
One of the best steps that a young investor can take, is the opening and funding a ROTH IRA, and then investing in small cap value * . Applying a quantitative tactical model to a portfolio of small cap value, long bond fund and cash equivalents has taken a smaller investment stake and produced risk alpha above the buy and hold of small cap value **.

True dat!
As to small cap value info. Is it saying 100% into SCV? If so I would lean more to the old allocation of 100-age = stocks and remainder into bonds.

With the lack and disappearance of "steady" job prospects, ( compared to the boomer generation ) innovation in alpha producing investments, and lack of planning help available to young investor, they will have to be more DYI going forward. Robo advisors, buy and hold index investing, and 60 / 40 "glidepath" funds won't help in the accumulation of the millions of dollars needed for survival either.
One of the best steps that a young investor can take, is the opening and funding a ROTH IRA, and then investing in small cap value * . Applying a quantitative tactical model to a portfolio of small cap value, long bond fund and cash equivalents has taken a smaller investment stake and produced risk alpha above the buy and hold of small cap value **.
* https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kToqLWLISRk4n4YnSzv1hT5kBN54l5CvhwGgDwJKPJI/edit?usp=sharing
** https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1pQuBfbPd18ca0G-KiZc5FIWNMx0pNa87INgsLjEwuzY/edit?usp=sharing
https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1C37CJypoxHWHB09e3g25ewOGjP83wDZhj5j6tlrLJoA/edit?usp=sharing

FYI: Investors have piled into U.S. mutual bond funds and exchange-traded funds targeting Treasury debt for 10 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch in nearly five years.
The winning streak underscores surging demand for safe-haven assets amid an uncertain global economic outlook and growing volatility across many asset classes.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/02/19/investors-pile-into-treasury-bond-funds-for-10th-straight-week/tab/print/

FYI: You can make an ETF out of anything. Even hedge fund positions that are at least 45 days old.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. earlier this month filed a prospectus for a new exchange-traded fund it plans to launch. The product it’s proposing, dubbed the Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund VIP ETF, will track an index of some of the most popular positions held by U.S. hedgies. It’s plan: To track an index of 50 stocks that appear the most in the top 10 holdings of U.S. hedge funds that rely on “fundamental” stock analysis.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/02/19/goldman-plans-etf-to-mimic-hedge-funds-with-a-delay/tab/print/

(This is a follow-up article)
FYI: Just when mutual-fund managers thought the systemic-risk talk was over, the New York Fed has stoked the fire. Sort of.
In a post published Thursday on the New York Federal Reserve’s Liberty Street Economics blog, economists argued that mutual funds are at risk of fire-sales and runs.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/02/19/can-mutual-funds-be-too-big-to-fail-ny-fed-says-yes-sort-of/tab/print/

FYI: Investors may be turning to the quality and value investment themes as dividend exchange traded funds lead the recent rebound.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.etftrends.com/2016/02/quality-dividend-etfs-outperform/

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13465544/1/you-ll-need-2-million-before-you-can-think-of-retirement.html
Retirement is really post WWII concept that people still believe is possible for them. But if you are 30 or under prepare for living on the street or in the boondocks (read up on BLM land) in your 60s.
Thank you for paying your SS taxes - I'll be enjoying them.

Objective & Overview
The Hennessy Cornerstone Mid Cap 30 Fund seeks long-term growth of capital by investing in 30 Mid Cap companies, screening for undervalued stocks with above-average growth potential.
Investment Strategy
The Hennessy Cornerstone Mid Cap 30 Fund formula marries value with momentum, seeking growth at a reasonable price. Stocks for the portfolio are selected by strict adherence to the following time-tested, quantitative formula:
Market capitalization between $1 and $10 billion, excluding foreign stocks/ADR's
This market cap spread allows for inclusion of a broad range of mid-cap companies. Foreign stocks/American Depositary Receipts, or “ADR's” are excluded as they do not generate additional returns for the additional associated risk.
Price to sales ratio below 1.5
This value metric helps to uncover relative bargains. The formula chooses sales as its guide because sales figures are more difficult for companies to manipulate than earnings and frequently provide a clearer picture of a company's potential value.
Annual earnings higher than the previous year
While sales may be the best indicator of a company's value, the formula considers improvement in earnings as an indicator of a company's financial strength.
Positive stock price appreciation, or relative strength, over 3 and 6-month period
Historically, relative strength has been one of the most influential variables in predicting which stocks will outperform the market.
Select the 30 stocks with the highest 12-month price appreciation
Limiting the portfolio to 30 stocks allows just the top performers to be included, while providing ample diversification
The portfolio is rebalanced once annually, generally in the Fall
https://hennessyfunds.com/funds/equity/individual/f_3/sc_investor/cornerstone_mid_cap_30_fund/p_Quarterly/overview.fs

Problem solved: Schwab OneSource ($100min), Fidelity NTF, TDAmeritrade NTF

@msf: U.S. News & World Report ranks PSPHX #2 & ETHSX #16. My problem with ETHSX is it's load. There are many excellent health-care fund that are no-load. On the positive side is ETHSX's manager, Sam Isely, who's steady hand has managed the fund since inception in 1985
Regards,
Ted
ETHSX Category Percentile Rank:
http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=ETHSX&region=usa&culture=en-US
FSPHX Category Percentile Rank:
http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=FSPHX&region=usa&culture=en_US
PRHSX Category Percentile Rank:
http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=PRHSX&region=usa&culture=en_US
JAGLX Category Percentile Rank:
http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=JAGLX&region=usa&culture=en_US
VGHCX Category Percentile Rank:
http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=VGHCX&region=usa&culture=en_US

John, H&R Block's Deluxe with State (under $30 at Amazon) worked very well after we jumped through some hoops. But our return wasn't complicated. Easy to navigate and to go back and correct or change earlier input when necessary. I think you can e-file federal for free, but we printed ours (to mail with a check).
Had trouble getting it to install on 5 year old MacBook which we hardly ever use. After entering the data, it calculated the tax but refused to print return because it was in a "read only" configuration. Phoned HR and got tremendous walk-through support for properly installing. Included downloading a newer OS from Apple. So in our case, the HR support was great.
http://www.amazon.com/Block-Deluxe-State-Software-Refund/dp/B01617VVCQ/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1455995456&sr=8-1&keywords=tax+preparation+software+2015
Several of the negative reviews mention issues running the Mac version. If you have a Mac, you need Apple's 10.6 SnowLeopard OS to run it. But it's also available in the Windows version if that's what you use.

"(ETHSX) is one of just a handful of funds that has consistently beaten the market over virtually every time period."
Statements like this always leave me wondering what "consistent" means, and what "market" means.
As an example, has a fund that underperformed by 2% in each of 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014, but outperformed by 15% in 2015 "consistently" outperformed? Its 1, 3, 5 year records say that it has done well, but I'd hardly call it consistent.
ETHSX's record is somewhat like that, only it has done well in the past three calendar years. Though it has done poorly this short YTD (as has the entire sector) relative to "the market". It did not fare well relative to "the market" in 2012, while 2010 and 2006 were relative disasters. Here I'm using the S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI to represent "the market".
IMHO more significant (for any fund) is how well it has done relative to its sector. ETHSX's rankings are in the bottom half (M* category) for 3, 5, 10, and 15 year periods. With this statement I'm guilty of the same cherry picking as Barron's - I'm not looking year by year (or rolling periods). Though year by year, still it has ended only two of the last ten calendar years in the top two quintiles.
Lipper says pretty much the same thing, ranking it a 3 on consistency (3, 5, 10, and overall) within its Lipper category.
Note that Lipper divides the health care fund universe into two parts - domestic and global. This is another illustration of why defining terms, i.e. "the market" matters. Lipper considers ETHSX a global fund (JAGLX being a more consistent peer), while Lipper considers FSPHX to be a consistent domestic health care fund.

@johnN: Here is an aticle from Forbes on how to find truly free tax software. Be careful and make sure you understand what the software does and doesn't do for free.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2015/02/02/how-to-find-truly-free-tax-software/print/
Tax Software:
http://www.top10taxsoftware.com/?kw=free tax software&c=76775298057&t=search&p=&m=e&adpos=1t2&dev=c&devmod=&mobval=0&network=g&campaignid=200711577&adgroupid=9622471377&targetid=kwd-25458350&interest=&physical=1016663&feedid=&a=1100&ts=&topic=&upf=&gclid=CNjGwYfehssCFQ-raQod-F8GIA

"For U.S. short-term reserve returns, we used the Ibbotson 1-Month Treasury Bill Index from 1926 through 1977 and the Citigroup 3-Month Treasury Bill Index thereafter."
It's nice they inform us of that. However, all 9 of their suggested models contain 0% allocation to short-term reserves.

FYI: (Click On Article title At Top Of Google Search)
This year’s market has not been good for anyone’s health. After the rockiest start ever to a new year, the volatility has continued such that even the recent three-day rally still has stocks down more than 6% as of Thursday. Health-care stocks, after five years of market-beating gains, have been hit particularly hard, down 8.6% for the year so far. The only sector in worse shape is financials, down 12.3%.
In our Jan. 30 cover story, Barron’s told readers it was “Time to Buy Bank Stocks.” Investors would be wise to look at health-care funds as well.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/#q=Two+Top+Health-Care+Funds+Barron's

FYI: Picking stocks has become so hard that some stock pickers have given up pretending to try.
Pry open the hood of a mutual fund, and you might be startled by what you find. In the past, you would have seen roughly 100 stocks, each painstakingly selected by a portfolio manager passionate about beating the market. Today, you’re increasingly likely to find a few handfuls of exchange-traded funds — those autopilot portfolios that seek to mimic the market rather than beat it.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/02/19/when-stock-pickers-stop-picking-stocks/tab/print/

@MFO Members: Created 4/30/12, with assets of only $21.7 million, and a 90th percentile perfomance record, with 2.36% ER. Management requests you don't sent flowers.
Regards,
Ted
M*: CLLIX Performance Record:
http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=CLLIX&region=usa&culture=en-US