FYI: In many ways the stock market makes no sense. You would assume that half of all stocks would outperform a market index while the other half would underperform. Then all you would have to do is pick from the top half and avoid the bottom half, make massive amounts of money and go buy an island somewhere.
Regards,
Ted
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/05/the-sp-500-is-the-worlds-largest-momentum-strategy/

Still 80 20 @401k.... probably buy invest real estate if housing down 10-20%

Here's what wxman123 just said Dox:
"My gut right now is we drive to new highs against the odds."
Sounds pretty clear to me.

, my downside feel is like 55% at the moment.

A decline of 55%?!!

Ha, no! I sure hope not. My thought when writing this was that there was only a slightly better chance of a major decline as compared with the current range-bound market or rally to the upside. Taking account of today's action, I'd reduce the odds to 50% or less. Today was the day I would have expected the gutting, but the turn was encouraging. Hit some stops during the worst of it, moving some of my best wins to the side (10% or so of PDT UTG VNQ). My gut right now is we drive to new highs against the odds.

So, you're saying ... stocks could go up or they could go down.

@MJG, Thanks for both responses.
I'm not surprised at the underperformance of individual investors. Higher fees alone account for some of that.
Not aware of just who Bernstein considers the average investor. Many individuals have small stakes in 401Ks through work or open IRAs on their own with good intentions. Unfortunately, many raid these periodically to cover emergency expenses (for example: by taking out loans from their plan). Others simply don't have time or inclination to monitor their investments, stay informed, or make intelligent decisions.
If "average investor" were dollar-weighted I think the results would be somewhat better. In other words, those with more skin in the game are likely to pay better attention and do better. Of course, few can beat the indexes over time. The indexes don't have operating expenses, brokerage fees, tax considerations to account for, or advisory fees. They're just that - indexes.
Before I leave off, MFO is not comprised of average investors. The fact that folks come here tells us they do have an interest in monitoring their investments and becoming better informed. It's a pretty select group to begin with.
Regards
PS: Richard Bernstein appeared infrequently on Rukeyser's original Wall Street Week. He tended to be a bit too conservative for my liking in those days. I never viewed him as the sharpest knife in the significant lineup Rukeyser unsheathed weekly back than. But he was by all accounts a competent member of the investment community.

The reason for shutting down HAUBX looks like simply lack of interest. Same team managing it as PFIUX (which is a little cheaper than the Harbor clone). Somewhat similar lackluster performance over the long term, and just $19M AUM (vs. $4.8B for PIMCO).
Or as M* write of the PIMCO version, "its record to date has been only middling." 784% turnover (for the Harbor version) to boot.

Hi Hank Again,
I meant to incorporate the following reference into my earlier submittal and failed to do so. Here it is now:
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/rbernstein_081314.php?channel=Smart Beta
Chart 1 in the Bernstein reference is especially illuminating. It compares the 20 year average annual returns from numerous asset classes against those achieved by individual investors.
That comparison is devastating for the private investor. Simply put, as a cohort, we stink to high Heaven. That’s an analytic conclusion. From the article: “The average investor even underperformed cash (listed here as 3-month t-bills)!”
Wow!! Our ineptness is legendary. I do suspect that MFOers do a little better than the average individual investor. That mythical private investor must be horrible in his trade timing decisions.
Sorry for my omission.
Best Wishes.

, my downside feel is like 55% at the moment.

A decline of 55%?!!

Ha, no! I sure hope not. My thought when writing this was that there was only a slightly better chance of a major decline as compared with the current range-bound market or rally to the upside. Taking account of today's action, I'd reduce the odds to 50% or less. Today was the day I would have expected the gutting, but the turn was encouraging. Hit some stops during the worst of it, moving some of my best wins to the side (10% or so of PDT UTG VNQ). My gut right now is we drive to new highs against the odds.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793769/000119312516594564/d359875d497.htm
497 1 d359875d497.htm HARBOR FUNDS
111 South Wacker Drive, 34th Floor
Chicago, IL 60606-4302
harborfunds.com
Supplement to Statement of Additional Information dated March 1, 2016
Harbor Unconstrained Bond Fund
Harbor Funds’ Board of Trustees has determined to liquidate and dissolve the Harbor Unconstrained Bond Fund. The liquidation of the Fund is expected to occur on July 29, 2016. The liquidation proceeds will be distributed to any remaining shareholders of the Fund on the liquidation date.
Shareholders may exchange shares of the Fund for another Harbor fund, or redeem shares out of the Fund, in accordance with Harbor’s exchange and redemption policies as set forth in the Fund’s prospectus, until the date of the Fund’s liquidation.
In order to ready the Fund for liquidation, the Fund’s portfolio of investments will be transitioned prior to the planned liquidation date to one that consists of all or substantially all cash, cash equivalents and debt securities with remaining maturities of less than one year. As a result, shareholders should no longer expect that the Fund will seek to achieve its investment objective of seeking total return.
Because the Fund will be liquidating, the Fund is now closed to new investors. The Fund will no longer accept additional investments from existing shareholders beginning on July 22, 2016.
May 18, 2016
Harbor Bond Fund
Effective June 1, 2016, Harbor Bond Fund shall have additional flexibility to invest in securities rated below investment grade. The percentage of the Fund’s total assets that may be invested in securities rated below investment grade is increasing from 15% of total assets to 20% of total assets. In addition, the minimum credit quality rating applicable to securities rated below investment grade is being removed.
Accordingly, effective June 1, 2016, the first paragraph on page 5 within the “Below Investment-Grade Fixed Income Securities” section under Investment Policies is hereby replaced in its entirety with the following:
Harbor Convertible Securities Fund and Harbor High-Yield Bond Fund invest primarily in below investment-grade securities. Harbor Global Growth Fund, Harbor Commodity Real Return Strategy Fund, Harbor Unconstrained Bond Fund, Harbor Bond Fund and Harbor Real Return Fund may invest up to 5%, 10%, 40%, 20% and 10%, respectively, of its assets in below investment-grade securities, commonly referred to as “high-yield” or “junk” bonds. For all securities other than mortgage-related securities, the investments of Harbor Commodity Real Return Strategy Fund and Harbor Real Return Fund in below investment-grade securities are limited to those rated B or higher by S&P, Moody’s or Fitch Ratings, or, if unrated, determined to be of comparable quality. For mortgage-related securities, these Funds may invest in securities of any credit quality, including those rated below B.
May 17, 2016
Investors Should Retain This Supplement For Future Reference

Dex, you are comparing the charts of two open end funds where dividends accumulate daily and paid out end of month vs an ETF where dividends are handled differently and show as a decline on the charts end of month.

Dex?, OK I'll play. Dan,
I compared HYD with HYG. HYG is beating HYD YTD. But if you look at other time periods, 1, 2, 5 - HYD wins. HYG is slightly ahead in 10 years by 1.75 pct pts. Max HYG is better by less than 9 pct pts.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=HYD+Interactive#{"range":"ytd","allowChartStacking":true}

Thanks for sharing your portfolio and thoughts supporting it. VWINX is a great fun. My personal preference would be to go with VBINX or similar w 60% stocks. Why? If interest rates rise the tradeoff between losses in a 60% bond portfolio vs 40% bond portfolio may outweigh the added yield at present that VWINX gives (VWINX 2.62 SEC yield vs VBINX 1.85%). VWINX has longer duration and maturity than VBINX according to Vanguard website. I am a fan of balance funds but wonder how they will fare in a rapid interest rate rising environment particularly among certain funds with mandates on a minimum bond allocation. Even VBINX would struggle in that environment. The balanced fund 15 year returns reflects a favorable bond environment. My 2c worth. good luck.

Good Day to You,
When I was seventeen, it was a very good year.....or so the lyric goes.
Well, 17 was a long time ago for this one. Now to begin to leave one of my active lovers.
If one is of the mind, passion and spirit for investing; the rewards, satisfaction and a form of love may leave a smile upon the face. While 50 ways (reasons) are not needed to leave an investing lover, one will likely determine a few key personal points.
Needless to say, the group here are not one's normal invest monies in a 401k, 403b, 457 or some form of IRA just to build a retirement account. We here tend to "fiddle" with whatever is available to our accounts.
Understanding/knowing the difference between being a passive or active investor is of value; as long as one also understands that he/she is likely active in managing choices which fall into a passive investment vehicle.
The exceptions that come to mind are when one uses an advisor, be it human or robo. But, one has still made an active choice about this, too.
So........the plan for this house for a total portfolio:
---75% VWINX , 65% IG bonds, 35% U.S. stocks, active managed
---15% FSPHX , healthcare, active managed; also included, DPLO (Diplomat Pharma stock)
---10% FRIFX , a different real estate active managed fund with a history of 50/50 stocks/bonds
We have a percentage of all of these now, but will sell other holdings to accommodate the above numbers.
For those interested, the below links present more information (click on the other tabs at the top, aside from these composition links:
--- VWINX , composition
This fund has superior returns for many years. Yes, it is subject to the markets not unlike any other fund.
--- FSPHX , composition
We still remain tilted towards the health sector and the many sectors within health related. Although this sector has been getting the whack during the past 6 or so months; our holdings average total return for the past several years remain most decent.
--- FRIFX , composition
You won't find an easy method for ranking in a category list for real estate, as this fund doesn't fit the normal holdings positions for this category, being about 50% bonds. As normal, we look for total return over a time frame; versus which fund is having the most fun, say, within a 1 or 2 year period.
--- DPLO , A specialty pharmacy. This company IPO'd in October of 2014. We purchased near the IPO price, having been very familiar with the quality of the organization during its 25 years of being private. We continue to hold this stock.
https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/goto/evaluate/snapshot.jhtml?symbols=DPLO&type=o-NavBar
As we investors are always subject (or should be subject to change) to change, the following holdings will be liquidated; market conditions allowing (no black swans, etc. allowed), from some accounts outside of Fidelity.
---BRUIX , DPRRX , BAGIX , DGCIX , OPBYX , VIIIX , GPROX , PRHSX , HEDJ , FHLC , ITOT
NOTE: all monies are tax sheltered accounts without current tax implications
We'll arrive at a conservative/moderate balanced account holding. As with all individual investors, such mixes are subject to "the eyes of the beholder" function as to how the balance suits their needs and views. The investment mix is mostly biased towards U.S. markets and companies, although at this time; about 20% of the holdings relate to other than U.S. One would also expect these holdings to generate greater than 20% of earnings/yields from sources outside of the U.S. going forward and providing some international exposure by this method.
Lastly, a large core holding in VWINX may be reasonably argued to possibly cause harm to an overall portfolio going forward due to its large percentage holdings in IG bonds. The main argument being that IG bonds have had one heck of a run for much too long. One may suppose that the "odds" factor such an argument. I will note again the phrase "that this time is different" since the market melt of 2008. Of course it is, eh? We live in a most dynamic investing world. At the very least, central banks and related polices operate upon the egos of the members. Who in these groups would want to look bad in the eyes of financial history? I suspect the central banks will continue to surprise many making decisions based upon every available form of data mining to obtain desired outcomes. Our house is still "betting" upon the investment grade bonds. This is no less as scary as the equity markets discovering flaws in the system, not yet known. With VWINX as the example, an investor will reap 35% of the up or down of the given equity holdings and 65% of the up or down of the investment grade bond holdings for a "total" result.
Remain or become fully flexible and adaptable, not just to your perception of the investing marketplace; but more importantly, to and for yourself and those important in your life.
This "personal overview" is likely incomplete; but will suffice for the time being.
Comments welcomed.
Regards,
Catch

FYI: Franklin Templeton Investments unveiled how much money it will charge investors to own its forthcoming “smart beta” exchange-traded funds in documents filed with regulators late on Tuesday.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2016/05/17/franklin-templeton-unveils-fees-for-smart-beta-etfs/tab/print/

Hi Guys,
“But a good portfolio can prosper for decades with minimal intervention. A basket of stocks is not a board game with turns and rounds. It's something that should be mostly hands-off. After a proper allocation is set up, one of the biggest strengths of individual investors is what they don't do. They don't trade. They don't fiddle. They don't require daily monitoring.”
This quote is surprising because of its author. It came from The Motley Fool’s cofounder Dave Gardner as reported by the reliable financial writer Morgan Housel.
Housel summarized Gardner’s unexpected conclusion with “But his point is that the game of investing is often won by the investor whose strategy is to "play" as little as possible….”.
Here is the Link to the article:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/05/13/two-short-stories-to-put-successful-investing-into.aspx
I didn’t expect Gardner’s statement; I see him as a stock-picker. This is yet another instance of how hard it is to characterize anyone with a simple summary. We’re complex by any standard.
I practice what Dave Gardner preaches. It has served me well. It’s easy for me since it’s within my emotional and intellectual wheelhouse of action minimization style. That investment philosophy is not suitable for everyone. That’s good since the frequent traders help to keep the markets fluid and nearly efficient.
Best Regards.

Dex, you are comparing the charts of two open end funds where dividends accumulate daily and paid out end of month vs an ETF where dividends are handled differently and show as a decline on the charts end of month. Check the link to see how the junk corps category is beating junk munis YTD as well as the past month. I am not badmouthing junk munis as I hold NHMRX and PYMDX ( as well as bank loan and corp junk funds) The junk munis, so far anyway, have been one smooth ride. While NHMAX may be best of breed and right at/near the top in junk muniland, it is still being beat YTD and especially recently by its junk corp cousin FJSYX at Nuveen. And if you go back to that pivotal 2/11 day for so many markets, performance-wise corp junk is absolutely swamping junk muni. As for emerging markets, yes, having a bang up year, but not my cup of tea because they are too volatile for my style.
http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/

One could use Stock Charts Technical Rank for US ETFs to find up-trending candidates:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/sctr.html?&V=E&T=E#&S=P1
(may be slow to load)

, my downside feel is like 55% at the moment.

A decline of 55%?!!

I think that's probably the right call, but down 5%, 10%, 30%? No one knows. So, how does one know when to get back in? I'm all for taking profits here and there, but unless you're prepared to be out for good there is a great risk you'll buy the shares you sell now at a higher price later. For a small amount, that's the price of insurance. If you're talking going all cash, good luck with that. Also would not be shocked to see a rally from here, my downside feel is like 55% at the moment. Could go either way.

I think, what he means in "I am going for it ..." The door!
But, not me. I am staying with my asset allocation ranges. I'll have ample cash to raise my equity allocation from its low range of 45% towards its high range of 55% when I feel warranted. Besides if investors begin to run for the door when the market (S&P 500 Index) is only off its 52 week high by about 4% I wonder what they might do should there be a 10% pullback, or more. I'll be a buyer in equites somewhere around the 1920 range (S&P 500 Index) should we get there during the summer. I have been adjusting my allocation to equities over the past few years from a high range of 65%+ downward because I felt they were overvalued and somewhat overbought. Once, we get through the fall elections I am looking for a nice late fall stock market rally to develop. Anyway, this is how I am currently positioned and will ramp up my allocation in equities depending on how the investing landscape developes. I am thinking that third and fourth quarter corporate earnings will begin to improve and provide the needed fuel to support the rally. In addition, I am looking for the FOMC to raise interest rates to cool inflation as my rolling twelve month inflation number might surprise you with a reading of better than six percent from May 2015 through April 2016.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1013881/000119312516592561/d187587d497.htm
497 1 d187587d497.htm NUVEEN INVESTMENT TRUST
Supplement Dated May 17, 2016
To the Prospectus and Summary Prospectuses Dated November 30, 2015
for
Nuveen Tradewinds Global All-Cap Fund
Nuveen Tradewinds International Value Fund
Nuveen Tradewinds Japan Fund
And to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated October 30, 2015
for
Nuveen Tradewinds Value Opportunities Fund
Nuveen Fund Advisors, LLC (“NFAL”), the Funds’ investment adviser, intends to propose that the Board of Trustees of the Funds (the “Board”) approve the reorganizations of Nuveen Tradewinds Global All-Cap Fund and Nuveen Tradewinds Value Opportunities Fund into Nuveen NWQ Global Equity Income Fund (“Global Equity Income Fund”). Global Equity Income Fund is advised by NFAL and sub-advised by its affiliate, NWQ Asset Management, LLC (“NWQ”). NFAL expects to make this proposal at a Board meeting currently scheduled for late May. If the Board approves the proposal, the reorganization of each Tradewinds Fund will be subject to approval of the Fund’s shareholders.
At the same meeting, Nuveen also intends to propose that the Board approve the transfer of the sub-advisory agreements for Nuveen Tradewinds International Value Fund and Nuveen Tradewinds Japan Fund from Tradewinds Global Investors, LLC to NWQ. Peter Boardman is expected to become an employee of NWQ and to continue to serve as the Funds’ portfolio manager following the proposed transfer.
Additional information on these proposals will be provided to Fund shareholders following the late May Board meeting.
PLEASE KEEP THIS WITH YOUR
FUND’S PROSPECTUS AND/OR SUMMARY PROSPECTUS
FOR FUTURE REFERENCE