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I would be interested in seeing them. I'm interested in the human desire to find patterns and meanings in patterns.@WABAC. Sometime will have to post all the bullish momentum indicators that triggered beginning on April 9. A plethora of them. More than in August 1982 and March 2009. So far so good.
Thanks v v much. Appreciated and most considerate.These are many tempting ideas to read for one who has 95% of his egg in FIGXX earning 4.17%
Normally chasing a few basis points isn't worth the effort, but ...
Or you could roll short maturity Treasuries. ... About the same as VUSXX and you don't have to go to another institution to buy.
From 1957 til recently tariff policy wasn't in a constant state of flux, or even something people have had to consider since the 1934 Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act.If the markets start tuning out these Tariff announcements, maybe we suffer over the next year or so and narrowly avoid a recession. The dollar has to stabilize. Our credibility has taken a hit this year. And the Fed must remain independent, or our credibility takes another hit.
The US Markets resilience will be sorely tested. Hopefully the next POTUS can unwind most of this regime's mess, but that is easier said than done.
"Brand USA" keeps falling.
A tidbit I recently read. There was recently a 25 day trading period ( ending May 12) where the S@P gained 15%. That is rarer than rare and going back to 1957 - 11 occurrences - and in no instances has a recession occurred within 12 months. In fact the S@P has averaged a 25% gain one year after such signals.
Because it just dipped below -20% and then accelerated into a recovery more rapid than the drop which lasted over three times longer
A tidbit I recently read. There was recently a 25 day trading period ( ending May 12) where the S@P gained 15%. That is rarer than rare and going back to 1957 - 11 occurrences - and in no instances has a recession occurred within 12 months. In fact the S@P has averaged a 25% gain one year after such signals.If the markets start tuning out these Tariff announcements, maybe we suffer over the next year or so and narrowly avoid a recession. The dollar has to stabilize. Our credibility has taken a hit this year. And the Fed must remain independent, or our credibility takes another hit.
The US Markets resilience will be sorely tested. Hopefully the next POTUS can unwind most of this regime's mess, but that is easier said than done.
"Brand USA" keeps falling.
... which goes along w/what I just posted in another thread:CNN
—
President Donald Trump said Sunday that he has agreed to delay a 50% tariff on European Union imports until July 9, the latest instance of Trump declaring an impending tariff and throwing markets into confusion only to later walk back the threatened levies.
@Old_Joe, I hear you. Slow growth has been a persistent issue in EU as the article highlighted the financing challenges, especially high tech startups. European index is trading at a lower multiple reflects lower earnings and slower growth comparing to those in US.I fully appreciate the developing problems here in the US, but hopefully we should look beyond the current administration for the longer term picture.
+1I kind of like some absolute return and market neutral funds. My favorites, which are EGRIX, BDMAX, and QMNNX keep chugging along. They have done well this year during an uncertain environment.
This highlights another benefit to Mutual Fund Class shareholders of Perpetual’s proposed structure (also a featured part of the original Vanguard model, the DFA Application, and the First Trust Application, the Fidelity Application). The structure outlined in the Perpetual Application contains a conversion privilege that allows for a shareholder seamlessly convert from a Mutual Fund Class to the ETF Class.[fn 17]
17 Unlike the Perpetual Application, the DFA Application, the Fidelity Application, the First Trust Application, and the original Vanguard application, the F/m Application proposes a conversion privilege whereby an ETF shareholder could convert its ETF shares to mutual fund shares. The F/m Application, however, does not address whether this structure would function essentially as an open-ending mechanism. Any time shareholders are displeased with the spread or premium/discount of their ETF shares, they could move to the mutual fund and redeem at net asset value (NAV). This could have at least one major unintended consequence: market makers and liquidity providers who regularly purchase and sell creation units will be disincentivized to make markets or provide liquidity, thereby stressing the ETF’s arbitrage mechanism.
The Fed cut its benchmark short-term rate by 1 percentage point in the second half of 2024 ... The European Central Bank, meanwhile, has cut its benchmark rate seven times in the last year by a combined 1.75 percentage points. The Bank of England on Thursday cut its benchmark rate to 4.25% from 4.5%. It was the bank’s fourth cut since last summer.
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