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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Long-bond revolt pressures 60/40 comeback in chaotic market
    FD said, ”I never believed in B&H for decades, the markets keep changing, and sometimes it's for years.”
    Somewhat agree. Every 3-5 years I’ve found it prudent to alter the overall mix - even though it is intended as long-term B&H. An example was after real assets funds outperformed heavily around 2020-21. I dumped them. But during the past 6-12 months I reallocated to one, as these products have cooled off in recent years.
    My “Strategery” doesn’t always work. Last year I sold a big position in PRPFX after it had surged 28% at one point during the year. Darned if it hasn’t continued on its winning ways this year, thanks to gold’s unparalleled rise plus its holdings in the Swiss Franc which is up around 10% YTD.
    However, at this stage of life, ”A bird in the bag is worth two in the bush”.
  • Long-bond revolt pressures 60/40 comeback in chaotic market
    From the article
    "The so-called 60/40 portfolio – long recommended for investors who want to balance exposure to risk with a cushion of safer, steady income – calls for allocating 60 per cent of holdings to stocks and 40 per cent to bonds. While a bedrock for retirement savers over decades, the approach lost some of its lustre in recent years as its underlying mechanism fell out of whack, with US stocks and bonds moving more in lockstep rather than offsetting each other."
    VBIAX is your typical 60/40.
    I would not call 2.2% a great income.
    BND, the US Tot Index made 1.46% annually in the last 10 years, a pretty low performance. Even 15 years at 2.2% is pretty low. BND lost more than 13% in 2022, where was the cusion?
    I never believed in B&H for decades, the markets keep changing, and sometimes it's for years. I preferred to hold funds like PRWCX.
  • Tariffs
    @WABAC. Sometime will have to post all the bullish momentum indicators that triggered beginning on April 9. A plethora of them. More than in August 1982 and March 2009. So far so good.
    I would be interested in seeing them. I'm interested in the human desire to find patterns and meanings in patterns.
    As an amateur historian I would also be interested in looking at the historical circumstances around the other eleven events that are similar to market action since April 9.
    Starting tomorrow, the S&P 500 will have to find its way out of another tariff-induced pothole. The recent comments about Apple and the EU are the main reason my small holding in BUBIX has out-performed SPY since I bought it on March 4, and my money market has outperformed it YTD. They also put a sizeable dent in my taxable holdings that have remained largely untouched for quite a while.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    These are many tempting ideas to read for one who has 95% of his egg in FIGXX earning 4.17%
    Normally chasing a few basis points isn't worth the effort, but ...
    Or you could roll short maturity Treasuries. ... About the same as VUSXX and you don't have to go to another institution to buy.
    Thanks v v much. Appreciated and most considerate.
    76% of that 95% is in Roths. Our tax situation therefore is meager, chiefly on (meaning AGI chiefly comprises) RMDs plus some CG and divs from a brokerage account.
    Plus we have some senior prop tax circuitbreaker thing which I no longer understand fully.
  • Tariffs
    @WABAC. Sometime will have to post all the bullish momentum indicators that triggered beginning on April 9. A plethora of them. More than in August 1982 and March 2009. So far so good.
  • Tariffs
    If the markets start tuning out these Tariff announcements, maybe we suffer over the next year or so and narrowly avoid a recession. The dollar has to stabilize. Our credibility has taken a hit this year. And the Fed must remain independent, or our credibility takes another hit.
    The US Markets resilience will be sorely tested. Hopefully the next POTUS can unwind most of this regime's mess, but that is easier said than done.
    "Brand USA" keeps falling.

    A tidbit I recently read. There was recently a 25 day trading period ( ending May 12) where the S@P gained 15%. That is rarer than rare and going back to 1957 - 11 occurrences - and in no instances has a recession occurred within 12 months. In fact the S@P has averaged a 25% gain one year after such signals.
    From 1957 til recently tariff policy wasn't in a constant state of flux, or even something people have had to consider since the 1934 Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act.
    It's only my opinion--meaning I don't know of anybody I could quote on this--that tariffs are exogenous to whatever most people take into account when they think of market cycles. I can't say that I am reassured that smart people are beginning to discount the velocity of announcements and reversals as crying wolf while elsewhere companies are pulling earnings guidance.
    As a sports fan, I hate streaks. Seems like they always end ugly.
    For extra reading: The S&P 500 was introduced in 1957. And according to this website, the bear market that year is classified as a Teddy Bear:
    Because it just dipped below -20% and then accelerated into a recovery more rapid than the drop which lasted over three times longer
  • Tariffs
    If the markets start tuning out these Tariff announcements, maybe we suffer over the next year or so and narrowly avoid a recession. The dollar has to stabilize. Our credibility has taken a hit this year. And the Fed must remain independent, or our credibility takes another hit.
    The US Markets resilience will be sorely tested. Hopefully the next POTUS can unwind most of this regime's mess, but that is easier said than done.
    "Brand USA" keeps falling.
    A tidbit I recently read. There was recently a 25 day trading period ( ending May 12) where the S@P gained 15%. That is rarer than rare and going back to 1957 - 11 occurrences - and in no instances has a recession occurred within 12 months. In fact the S@P has averaged a 25% gain one year after such signals.
  • Tariffs
    CNN

    President Donald Trump said Sunday that he has agreed to delay a 50% tariff on European Union imports until July 9, the latest instance of Trump declaring an impending tariff and throwing markets into confusion only to later walk back the threatened levies.
    ... which goes along w/what I just posted in another thread:
    IMO we are in the early stages of a seismic, but quiet, re-ordering of the global economy over the next 10-15 years. Specifically, I think the world economy and/or money flows will pivot to working WITH (or AROUND) the United States as a partner, not THROUGH the United States as a requirement. Could that become the proverbial 'New World Order'?
    The current regime, backed by its complicit Congressional enablers and a history of biparitsan whistling-past-the-gravegard, is showing that America cannot be relied upon anymore as a stable partner in business, economics, markets, defense, etc, etc. Tariff Toddler's on-again, off-again proclaimations are not confidence-building or reassuring other nations, let alone businesses. And then seeing our nation's 'leaders' gleefully adding more to our debt again on the very day our credit rating gets (again) downgraded is just another example of the current folks in DC acting irresponsibly and figuring deep down that the music will never stop.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    I think international ex-USA funds should see more positivity in the future. The only US sector I'm bullish on are utilities.
    IMO we are in the early stages of a seismic, but quiet, re-ordering of the global economy over the next 10-15 years. Specifically, I think the world economy and/or money flows will pivot to working WITH (or AROUND) the United States as a partner, not THROUGH the United States as a requirement. Could that become the proverbial 'New World Order'?
    The current regime, backed by its complicit Congressional enablers and a history of biparitsan whistling-past-the-gravegard, is showing that America cannot be relied upon anymore as a stable partner in business, economics, markets, defense, etc, etc. Tariff Toddler's on-again, off-again proclaimations are not confidence-building or reassuring other nations, let alone businesses. And then seeing our nation's 'leaders' gleefully adding more to our debt again on the very day our credit rating gets (again) downgraded is just another example of the current folks in DC acting irresponsibly and figuring deep down that the music will never stop.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    These are many tempting ideas to read for one who has 95% of his egg in FIGXX earning 4.17%
    Normally chasing a few basis points isn't worth the effort, but with 95% in MMFs, you might take a look at VUSXX. Its seven day yield is 4.23%. And last year it was 100% state tax exempt (vs about 1/2 for FIGXX). For someone in a 5% income tax rate state, that would save about 0.20% in taxes vs. 0.10% with FIGXX.
    After tax, VUSXX does about 1/6% better. For pocket cash, or even "money awaiting investment", that may not be worth the effort.
    It's also relatively accessible. Just a $3K min, and it's available through E*Trade (for those who decline to transact with Vanguard).
    Or you could roll short maturity Treasuries. Fidelity reports 3 month Treasuries as yielding 4.32%. (Estimated yield on auction 3-month T-bill is 4.31%.) About the same as VUSXX and you don't have to go to another institution to buy.
  • lovable losers? The WSJ on active ETFs
    Barron's article simply mentioned that "...JEPI has about two-thirds the volatility of the market...", but didn't offer any explanation.
    True, the equity portfolio of JEPI has more conservative, dividend-paying stocks. And Morningstar shows 86.49% equity exposure with the rest in Other (options on SP500 + some cash).
    Assuming JEPI equity similar to VYM (3-yr Relative SD 0.8546 by TestFol) and applying M* % equity, I get to Relative SD 0.7391 for JEPI.
    Repeating this calculation with VIG, I get 3-yr Relative SD 0.7289 for JEPI.
    That is still too far from TestFol 3-yr Relative SD 0.6512 (almost 2/3 rd) for JEPI. So, I am missing something in JPM's secret sauce.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    I fully appreciate the developing problems here in the US, but hopefully we should look beyond the current administration for the longer term picture.
    @Old_Joe, I hear you. Slow growth has been a persistent issue in EU as the article highlighted the financing challenges, especially high tech startups. European index is trading at a lower multiple reflects lower earnings and slower growth comparing to those in US.
    Having said that, the Europe index diverged from S&P 500 considerably due to the depreciating dollar; 20% (unhedged) vs -1%, respectively. Will this trend revert to the mean at the longer timeframe beyond this administration? Honestly, no one really knows.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    PRWCX is available in Merrill accounts. I dip-bought a bunch a month ago and it's up 7% --- luck.
    These are many tempting ideas to read for one who has 95% of his egg in FIGXX earning 4.17%.
  • lovable losers? The WSJ on active ETFs
    I took another look at JEPI. While it hasn't been exposed to a bear market, 2022 and 2025YTD have been tough years. JEPI is consistently superior to OEF GATEX (that also uses protective puts) and equivalent allocation 65%SPY + 35%BND; note that Relative SD of JEPI is 0.65 wrt SP500.
    For an individual stock, covered-call limits the upside in exchange for the call premium, but doesn't limit the downside. So, something in the fund structure of JEPI is leading to lower volatility. My guesses for reasons include (i) lower equity exposures, (ii) more conservative equity holdings, (iii) upside caps (that trim some volatility), (iv) execution of the options strategies & (v) redeployment of premium & other proceeds (e.g. when the stocks get called away). But I cannot point to a single dominant cause.
    Similar observations can be made for JEPQ in relation to QQQ (Nasdaq 100).
    https://testfol.io/?s=kRhewIHNMLw
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    I mentioned, above, an interesting report that I read some time ago concerning the possible future of the European economy. I erroneously thought that it had been in The Economist, but it was actually in The Wall Street Journal, and it's main focus was on the poor prognostication for growth in the Tech sectors.
    Here's a free link-
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    I kind of like some absolute return and market neutral funds. My favorites, which are EGRIX, BDMAX, and QMNNX keep chugging along. They have done well this year during an uncertain environment.
    +1
    Add to it QLENX.
    Another option is to own the best categories/funds. Europe (VGK) signaled it since 02/2025.
    https://schrts.co/qqqMxnXW
  • ‘Absolute tsunami’ of ETFs to hit market
    Vanguard has been careless in merging some of its OEFs. After ignoring related investor complaints, it had to settle with the SEC on this
    What Vanguard was careless about was how it went about reducing the min of its institutional clones of TDFs. Not the merger per se.
    Reducing the min triggered a mass migration of smaller sized employer-sponsored retirement plans from the retail funds to the institutional funds. The result was a huge sell-off (and recognized gains) in the retail funds. Individual investors with shares in taxable accounts were left holding the bag - a huge tax bill.
    Shortly thereafter, Vanguard merged the institutional funds with the retail funds.
    Had Vanguard not reduced the min for institutions, or had Vanguard reduced the min subsequent to merging the funds, no sales and no gains would have been triggered.
    I haven't checked the prospectuses of these new ETFs, but Vanguard allows tax-free conversions of its mutual funds/OEFs to their ETF classes that may have lower ERs (typically similar as Admiral OEF ERs), but not the reverse.
    See https://www.chapman.com/media/publication/15122_IL-0224-Coyle-Pershkow-Warren.pdf
    This highlights another benefit to Mutual Fund Class shareholders of Perpetual’s proposed structure (also a featured part of the original Vanguard model, the DFA Application, and the First Trust Application, the Fidelity Application). The structure outlined in the Perpetual Application contains a conversion privilege that allows for a shareholder seamlessly convert from a Mutual Fund Class to the ETF Class.[fn 17]
    17 Unlike the Perpetual Application, the DFA Application, the Fidelity Application, the First Trust Application, and the original Vanguard application, the F/m Application proposes a conversion privilege whereby an ETF shareholder could convert its ETF shares to mutual fund shares. The F/m Application, however, does not address whether this structure would function essentially as an open-ending mechanism. Any time shareholders are displeased with the spread or premium/discount of their ETF shares, they could move to the mutual fund and redeem at net asset value (NAV). This could have at least one major unintended consequence: market makers and liquidity providers who regularly purchase and sell creation units will be disincentivized to make markets or provide liquidity, thereby stressing the ETF’s arbitrage mechanism.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    Many years ago I looked into ways of investing in currencies when Fidelity (among others) offered currency funds.
    Invesco CurrencyShares® ETFs (e.g. FXE, FXF) are one way to play currencies. The YTD gains reported above include both changes in premium (spread of market price over NAV has increased) and interest (these ETFs can pay interest).
    From the M* chart for FXE here the YTD figures are:
    NAV (representing currency movement less expenses): +9.47%
    NAVwDivs (representing the above plus interest earned): +10.09%
    Price (representing NAV gain + increased premium): +9.65%
    Price+Divs (representing the above plus interest earned): +10.27%
    Thus, interest earned YTD = (10.27% - 9.65%) = (10.09% - 9.47%) = 0.62%.
    Compounded to annual yield: 1.0062 ^ (365/144) (days) - 1 = 1.58%
    Another way to invest in currency is to open foreign currency accounts at banks. Perhaps the most well known is Everbank. It wasn't competitive when I looked at it years ago and doesn't seem to be competitive now. (It is offering 0.10% APY on a three month Euro CD.) There are other banks that offer foreign currency accounts. The one I remember is Cathay bank.
    Dollar weakness seems to be due to worldwide disinvestment in the US attributed to increasing uncertainty in the US generally (regulatory environment, tax regimen, tariffs, etc.). Somewhat counterbalancing this are higher interest rates in the US - the Fed has not reduced rates recently (due to inflation concerns) while other central banks have continued to do so.
    WSJ, Why the Fed Isn’t Ready to Join Other Central Banks in Cutting Rates, May 8, 2025.
    The Fed cut its benchmark short-term rate by 1 percentage point in the second half of 2024 ... The European Central Bank, meanwhile, has cut its benchmark rate seven times in the last year by a combined 1.75 percentage points. The Bank of England on Thursday cut its benchmark rate to 4.25% from 4.5%. It was the bank’s fourth cut since last summer.