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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Q&A With Dennis Gartman: Don't Buy Stocks, Consider Gold
    FYI: Dennis Gartman is the man behind The Gartman Letter, a daily newsletter discussing global capital markets. For almost 30 years, The Gartman Letter has tackled the political, economic and social trends shaping the world's markets. ETF.com recently caught up with Gartman to discuss the latest developments in the financial markets.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/gartman-dont-buy-stocks-consider-gold?nopaging=1
  • Josh Brown: Proudly Permabullish
    The 5Yr avg returns on S&P 500 will cross 15% soon. Marketing is already going up and will into overdrive when we reach 15%. I'm going to take money of the table, or even sooner, if that happens. At a minimum, good time for rebalancing or eliminating some trading holdings.
  • Best and Worst Funds Discovered Here At MFO
    @BobC. Totally agree. When you buy triumphs what you buy 9/10. However, with SCMFX I'm much to blame to let myself be influenced.
    The real problem is who buys a 1* fund? Everyone wants to by 5* funds. I think the *s influence people in a way simply "top performing fund" wouldn't. I can guarantee most of the people looking at M* and at fund companies touting the star rating received from M*, take this to mean more than just a performance based rating when it is really just that.
    Finally it is hard to know when someone was lucky or just good or both or neither. MFLDX started in 2008. Perfect timing for a L/S fund. I'm glad I sold because it stopped being NTF at Scottrade.
  • Art Cashin: " The Market Wants Details On Tax Reform"
    A 100 year bond gives holding to maturity a new flavor not to mention long term bond fund and effective maturity and duration.
    On the "that ship has sailed" side, Imagine if the rates in the late 70s and 80s could be locked in forever.
  • Best and Worst Funds Discovered Here At MFO
    Best and Worst sometimes has a lot to do with timing...when you buy a fund. For example, WASYX had a fantastic run until it ran into problems with asset bloat and big management changes. Those folks who owned it from 2007- 2013 and sold it for whatever reason probably loved it. Even with some stinker years, especially the last 3+ years, its 15-yr average return is about 8%. But this is why WHO runs an actively-managed fund is so critical, as is asset bloat and the problems it might cause.
    Investors often are late to the party with funds, getting if after the big gains. Once the fund gains large numbers of assets, it may be unable to continue using its unique strategy. Certainly MFLDX is a good example of this. Spectacular numbers from inception 2008 through much of 2013 (assets ballooned from $35 million to almost $16 billion), then running of the tracks and crashing, not recovering even as assets dropped to $370 million. Here there was no management change. In hindsight, the small fund's purchase by a large fund company was likely a big mistake.
    I would urge caution about labeling relatively new funds "Best". "Best" can mean different things to different investors. While I personally own SIGIX because of its manager's track record, the fund is barely 5 years old. I own it because I believe it is a good compliment to a higher-volatility index like SCHE. It may not have the best long-term total return numbers, but I am ok with that.
  • Paul Katzeff: Fidelity Slashes Online Stock, ETF Commission To $4.95, A 38% Cut
    FYI: Fidelity Investments is returning fire in the online brokerage industry's price war. Fidelity, which lays claim to the mantle of largest online brokerage firm with its 17.9 million accounts and $1.7 trillion in total brokerage client assets, on Tuesday slashed its base online retail commissions for U.S. stock and ETF trades to $4.95.
    That was a $3 per-trade reduction, or 38%, and Fidelity's first commission cut in 7 years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/fidelity-slashes-online-stock-etf-commission-to-4-95-a-38-cut/
  • The Btrakfast Briefing: U.S. Stocks Struggle To Resume Record Run As Traders Wait For Trump’s Speech
    Good morning,
    In checking the markets this morning as I write Asia-Pacific is mixed with China and Japan being up Europe is mostly up with the exception being Germany. In the States stocks look to be down and government bonds flat to up. The three leading sectors yesterday in the 500 Index were energy, financials and real estate. The three leading commodities this morning are lumber, feeder cattle and live cattle. For the latest data you might wish to check the links below because often times things change throughout the day.
    http://markets.wsj.com/usoverview
    http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
    Yesterday, Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James posted his weekly commentary which I feel is worth the read. Its theme ... is that ... it is sometimes best to just sit.
    https://www.raymondjames.com/wealth-management/market-commentary-and-insights/investment-strategy
    In addition, Brian Gilmartin of Trinity Asset Management published a piece titled "Financial Sector Estmates Still Show Favorable Trends" that is well worth the read. Seems, there are some revisions already taking place within forward estimates.
    http://fundamentalis.com/?p=6729
    Old_Skeet's market barometer still has a read of 131 indicating that the 500 Index is overbought. I wonder how the markets will be effected tomorrow after President Trump's speach this evening? And, I am indeed looking to see what the resulting barometer reading will be. It is interesting that all of the feeds are at (or below) their floor scoring readings with the exception being earnings. The earnings feed is comprised of both reported TTM earnings and forward estimates so if forward estimates get revised downward this will indeed have a negative impact on the feed's reading as well as faltering reported earnings. The barometer has a floor reading of 120 and a ceiling reading of 180. So, you can see we are currently well into the overbought zone and 11 points from the barometer's floor reading of 120. Please remember, a lower reading indicates there is less value to had in the 500 Index while a higher reading indicates more value. The zone indicators on the barometer are overbought, overvalued, fair value, undervalued, and oversold. Currently, 131 scores as overbought with the other feeds at or below their floor readings. With this, the strong earnings feed reading is all that is keeping the current barometer reading off it's floor. For me, this indicates the market is indeed extended and I look for a nearterm pullback and/or some sideways range bound price movement within the Index. I'm thinking that the markets are looking for a good message from our President this evening and this is currently already priced into stock market valuations. I see the markets as being very vunerable at this time!
    As in the card game of bridge ... Anybody wanting to double?
    For me, I going with Jeffrey Saut's sugguestion ... "I'm just going to sit" as I am towards the upper limit within my asset allocation for equities along with I am thinking that the stock market will continue to climb the earnings wall although there could be a nearterm pullback. Got some cash and will most likely become a buyer of stocks in a stock market pullback perhaps to the upper limit of their allocation within my portfolio. But, I need to see the barometer score some good value can be had first. That would take one heck of a movement on the barometer.
    The primary reason that I am overweight equities, at this time, is because of a seasonal investment strategy that I follow where I load equities in the fall and generally keep their weighting towards their upper limit within my equity allocation until spring. I then begin a process to trim equities back towards a more normal weighting. March historically has offered up some good returns for stocks so, at this time, I going with the calendar over the barometer.
    Thanks for stopping by.
    Have a great day ... and, most of all ... I wish all "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Henderson High Yield Opportunities Fund reorganization into T. Rowe Price U.S. High Yield Fund
    The folks at T. Rowe tell me that this is there attempt to get around the fact that Mr. V. closed PRHYX and wants to keep it closed. They allow that the new fund gives potential investors unable to access Mark Vaselkiv’s fund “a very fine, but mostly comparable option."
    The "new" fund is 46 months old, so the longest standard comparison period I've got is three years. Over the three years ending on 1/31, the correlation between the two funds was near-perfect at 97. HYOIX had substantially higher returns and a lower maximum drawdown, leading to higher Sharpe, Sortino and Martin ratios.
    For what that's worth,
    David
  • Art Cashin: " The Market Wants Details On Tax Reform"
    A 100-year bond would appear to lend new meaning to the term kicking the can down the road.
    Anyone buying one would need to have a very long term investment horizon.
    :)
  • Henderson High Yield Opportunities Fund reorganization into T. Rowe Price U.S. High Yield Fund
    HYOAX
    Henderson manager was previously @ T Rowe Price
    Biography
    Kevin Loome joined Henderson Global Investors in 2013 as Head of US Credit, and in early 2013 launched the Henderson High Yield Opportunities Fund. His career began at Morgan Stanley before moving to T. Rowe Price as an analyst and fund manager. Prior to joining Henderson, Kevin worked at Delaware Investments as Head of High Yield Investments and Senior Portfolio Manager. Kevin received a bachelor's in Business Administration from University of Virginia and received his MBA from the Amos Tuck School of Dartmouth College.
    https://www.henderson.com/uspi/expert/221/kevin-loomeM* High Yield
    M* High Yield Rankings
    Rankings
    http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/high-yield-bond/$FOCA$HY.aspx
    A Bull Market For Junk Bonds As Interest Rates Rise
    CapitalSpectator.com
    ..hawkish tone offers another reason to remain cautious on Treasuries. But while the outlook for bonds generally is challenged as interest drift higher, one corner of fixed-income has been immune: junk bonds.
    The BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread (which compares junk yields to Treasury rates) has slipped to a mere 3.78% (as of Feb. 22), which is near the lowest level since the recession ended in mid-2009.
    image image
    http://www.capitalspectator.com/a-bull-market-for-junk-bonds-as-interest-rates-rise/
  • Bogle Investment Management Small Cap Growth Fund investor share class conversion and other changes

    Aha - thanks for that info, I read that too quickly and didn't make the distinction.
    Because he gave that name to his son?
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303332904579224351143883302
    (WSJ article gives you just enough to get the point, even w/o subscription)
  • Even Buffett admits it
    Hi Guys,
    In recent times I have become an advocate of a portfolio dominated by a diversified mix of Index holdings. That was not always the case. When I initially ventured into the mutual fund world, I filled my portfolio with actively managed products.
    I did not choose those actively managed products randomly. I exercised a rules based selection discipline. Those rules are easily summarized as follows: low fees, low fund turnover rate, a reliable firm, long manager tenure, manage's own money in the fund, a high ratio of stock holdings that diverge from its benchmark, and some recognition of any downside risk factors.
    I seldom satisfied all these rules, but a sufficient number to satisfice a majority. I still own a diminishing number of actively managed funds, and I still apply the same sorting criteria.
    I certainly agree with the observation that investing should be as far removed from gambling as possible. The historical data shows that as the time horizon expands, the likelihood of positive investment outcomes dramatically improves, especially for equity positions. That's goodness for most MFOers who are in the markets for a longer timeframe.
    I'm not overly concerned about investors totally buying into the Index strategy. The odds of that happening anytime soon are remote at best. Today, Indexing has indeed become more popular, but the market percentage is only about 30%. Some active investing is needed to establish a fair market price, but experts believe that a fair price can be determined with only a 20% active participation cohort. We're a long way from that threshold number.
    That 20% estimate comes from a video that I referenced a few days ago. The video is over one hour long and presents an argument for Index investing. If you have the time and interest, here is the Link once again:
    https://www.google.com/search?sclient=tablet-gws&site=&source=hp&q=how+to+win+the+loser+game+sensible+investing&oq=how+to+win+the+loser&gs_l=tablet-gws.1.1.0j0i22i30k1l2.3740.16019.0.23925.20.11.0.9.9.0.411.1982.0j9j1j0j1.11.0....0...1c.1.64.tablet-gws..0.20.2075...0i131k1.hvGA1z_u18U
    It includes interviews with industry giants, mostly academics, who strongly endorse a passive, Index portfolio approach. Enjoy! Warren Buffett has been giving the same advice since the mid-1990s. Some of the guys ( EDIT: more properly stated "respected professionals" ) on the video have been doing the same for a much longer period.
    Best Wishes
  • M*: 8 Incredibly Low-Risk Bond Funds
    Actually the 0.94% is SEC yield, which IMHO is a better indicator of total return. The current yield (as opposed to trailing twelve month) is 0.98%, per Vanguard.
    Since this is a tax-exempt fund, for someone in the 25% tax bracket the effective yield (ignoring state income tax distortions) is 1.25% or so. That beats bank rates, but perhaps not so much as to warrant the volatility risk.
    Of the funds listed, my favorite would be VMLTX - its significantly higher yield over VWSTX means that in the worst case, you're likely to come out about as well as VWSTX over a year or more. The best comment on the M* article seems to be the first, by Darwinian, who explains some of this.
  • Art Cashin: " The Market Wants Details On Tax Reform"
    "The Treasury Secretary said that 50 year and 100 year bonds weren't completely out of [the] question, and that indicates that they are at least thinking they may have to go the deficit route and use those bonds to defray things." (1:20)
  • Henderson High Yield Opportunities Fund reorganization into T. Rowe Price U.S. High Yield Fund
    *********Spoiler Alert*************
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141306/000089180417000156/hend70680-497.htm
    497 1 hend70680-497.htm HENDERSON GLOBAL FUNDS
    HENDERSON GLOBAL FUNDS
    Henderson High Yield Opportunities Fund
    Supplement dated February 27, 2017 to the
    Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated
    November 30, 2016, as supplemented December 20, 2016
    IMPORTANT NOTICE
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Prospectus and should be retained and read in conjunction with the Prospectus.
    On February 24, 2017, the Board of Trustees of Henderson Global Funds (the “Board”) approved the reorganization of Henderson High Yield Opportunities Fund (the “Acquired Fund”) into the T. Rowe Price U.S. High Yield Fund (the "Acquiring Shell Fund"), a newly-organized fund in the T. Rowe Price family of funds (the “Reorganization”), subject to approval by the shareholders of the Acquired Fund. The proposed Reorganization will involve transferring the assets and liabilities of the Acquired Fund to the Acquiring Shell Fund in a tax-free reorganization, as set forth in an agreement and plan of reorganization (the “Plan”). If approved, the Reorganization is expected to occur on or around May 22, 2017, at which point Acquired Fund shareholders will receive shares of the Acquiring Shell Fund representing the same total value as their shares of the Acquired Fund.
    The Acquiring Shell Fund will commence operations upon consummation of the Reorganization. It is anticipated that the Acquiring Shell Fund will become the accounting survivor of the Acquired Fund and adopt its performance and accounting history. The Acquiring Shell Fund has substantially similar investment objectives, investment strategies, and overall risk profile as the Acquired Fund. In addition, it is anticipated that the Acquiring Shell Fund will be managed by the same portfolio manager, Kevin Loome, and who is expected to be supported by the same investment personnel as was the case with the Acquired Fund.
    Under the terms of the Plan, Class A and Class C shareholders of the Acquired Fund will receive Advisor Class shares of the Acquiring Shell Fund, and Class I and Class R6 shareholders of the Acquired Fund will receive I Class shares of the Acquiring Shell Fund, in proportion to the relative net asset value of their shareholdings of Class A, Class C, Class I, and/or Class R6 shares, respectively, of the Acquired Fund. In addition to the Advisor Class and I Class shares to be issued in the Reorganization, the Acquiring Shell Fund will also offer another class of shares called Investor Class shares.
    Before the Reorganization can occur, the Plan must be approved by shareholders of the Acquired Fund. Detailed information on the proposal will be contained in proxy materials that are expected to be filed in the near future.
    The foregoing disclosure is not intended to solicit a proxy from any shareholder of the Acquired Fund. The solicitation of proxies to effect the Reorganization will only be made by a final, effective Registration Statement on Form N-14, which includes a definitive Proxy Statement/Prospectus, after that Registration Statement is declared effective by the Securities
    ________________________________________
    and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). The Registration Statement on Form N-14 has yet to be filed with the SEC. After the Registration Statement on Form N-14 is filed with the SEC, it may be amended or withdrawn and the Proxy Statement/Prospectus will not be distributed to shareholders of the Acquired Fund unless and until the Registration Statement on Form N-14 is declared effective by the SEC.
    Shareholders of the Acquired Fund are urged to read the Proxy Statement/Prospectus and other documents filed with the SEC carefully and in their entirety when they become available because these documents will contain important information about the proposed Reorganization. The Proxy Statement/Prospectus will contain information with respect to the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Acquiring Shell Fund and other important information that Acquired Fund shareholders should carefully consider.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT WITH THE PROSPECTUS,
    SUMMARY PROSPECTUS AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • M*: 8 Incredibly Low-Risk Bond Funds
    For VWSTX mentioned in article- current yield 0.94%. Better yield in a FDIC protected high yield savings account such as Synchrony/Ally with no possibility of drawdown!! Current yield 1.05%