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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • EXTREMELY late TRP tax documents just arrived, 21st March.
    I've had to mail a bunch of 'sensitive' documents around the country recently. I setup an account with pirateship.com and am using UPS envelopes to send them. For $10 I can overnight to NYC. For $20 I can 2-day something to the west coast. (It'd be $50 going to their store or Staples)
    Based on their own track record of deteriorating service in recent years, I don't trust USPS anymore for anything important.
  • Shorting Tesla

    be careful.
    both momentum traders and musk fanboys looking to buy dips, and market will over-react to any tariffs delays\cancellations. actual tax cuts would do the same.
    one experienced short seller stated look for a point where hardcore fans are so underwater, they will not add or return.
    this may be somewhere near intrinsic value, which surveys ~ $30-$50 range. or calc your own.
  • Fido’s “basket” option
    Not quite ready for prime time! - A good description of Fido’s basket system based on early impressions. Today I increased the CEF basket holdings from 7 to 9. Each has a weighting of around 11% inside the basket. (As a group they represent 17.5% of portfolio.)
    The process:
    - First, I put through a single sale from the existing basket of 7 in the necessary dollar sum to fund 2 more equal weight CEFs. This worked like a breeze. The system sold roughly equal sums from each of the 7 and the cash was immediately available for investment inside the Roth..
    - Using the proceeds from the sale, I purchased the 2 new CEFs in identical cash amounts. They appeared first in the Roth account listing..
    - However, transferring the 2 new CEFs into the existing “basket” was difficult at first. The system required a “percentage” of some sort - but it didn’t say “of what”? You’d think that would be 100% of each of the new CEFs … No!
    - I then imputed a % slightly above that of the present basket occupants. That went through and 100% of each of the new funds moved into the basket.
    - At first there appears no way to observe the share totals for the various basket occupants all at once. Early on I resorted to clicking on each individual CEF to view shares held - a slow process. However, on the third or fourth day I discovered a link on the main portfolio page that allows you to switch back and forth to either view all holdings with share totals, etc. or simply view the non-basket holdings. It’s hard to spot - “Hidden in plain sight” as they say. :)
    - In the end, everything worked. It will be a great feature provided I simply add to, withdraw from or rebalance the entire collection. All that can be accomplished in 1 easy step. However, as I’ve noted - buying a new position or selling an old one could prove trying.
  • EXTREMELY late TRP tax documents just arrived, 21st March.
    I was recently notified by USPS Informed Delivery that a letter from TRP will be delivered. ... I did not receive the said letter... Two days later my neighbor brought over the TRP letter.
    ...
    I would trust USPS over TRP for service reliability.
    Let me see if I've got this right. USPS failed to deliver a letter to you. If not for the good graces of a neighbor, you never would have known what happened to the letter, let alone recovered it. And you are willing to place any measure of trust in the USPS?
    I've watched the USPS lose certified letters that I've sent; leave bags of mail destined for various addresses in the middle of our lobby for hours (as though we were some sort of substation); lose packages that it claimed it delivered to me.
    Whatever happened to the 31st JANUARY deadline???
    Until this year [2009], the deadline for sending Form 1099-B, Proceeds From Broker and Barter Exchange Transactions, was Jan. 31, the same as for Form W-2 and other information reporting forms. Congress extended the deadline to Feb. 15 in the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, which also will require brokers to report the cost basis of securities sold, effective in phases starting in 2011.
    https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/news/2009/feb/late1099bmailings/
    More generally, IRS deadlines (unless the financial institution requests an extension) are here:
    https://www.irs.gov/instructions/i1099gi#en_US_2025_publink1000287056
    Until an institution has the information for an entire account, it will hold off on sending what would be an incomplete combined 1099. For various reasons, some funds are unable to provide complete information quickly and routinely request extensions. For example, in the past PRSVX has distributed some unrecaptured 1250 gains (box 2b). I suspect that it is because of the possibility of these distributions that TRP delays this fund's tax mailings.
    Here's TRP's complete mailing schedule (for investments held directly in mutual fund accounts)
    https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/planning/tax/preparation/tax-mailing-schedule.html
    This year, Fidelity delayed sending me a combined 1099 because it was waiting on information from a money market fund, more specifically a Fidelity MMF!
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 21 March 2025. Flows remain updated through 14 March.
  • Bonds Holding Up, But Playbook Is Changing
    @Observant1, the recent Barron’s article on Ivascyn and Murata’s PIMIX also describes their move to higher quality debts (he likes agency and mortgage-backed bonds) and reduced junk bonds. Additionally, moving from 0.8 to 4.7 years in duration is due ti the flattening yield curve. Here is an excerpt from yogibb,
    FUNDS. Ivascyn (and Murata) of multisector giant PONAX / PIMIX are loading up on agency MBS and TIPS but reducing exposure to corporates, nonagency MBS (a Pimco specialty) and HY. Credit spreads are tight, stocks are (still) expensive, so it's focusing on credit quality. The yield-curve is almost flat. He doesn’t expect high inflation or recession and has increased Fund duration a bit. Fund is well positioned for 5-yr timeframe and has a generous distribution. It’s unclear how (or, if) the Administration will calibrate policies with economic data and market signals. (etf cousin is PYLD, riskier CEF cousins are indefinite-term PDI and limited-term PDO, PAXS.) (By @LewisBraham at MFO).
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/top-bond-fund-manager-buying-now-2168a117?refsec=funds&mod=topics_funds
    The article showed the sector changes over 4 years.
  • Lipper Names CrossingBridge "Best Fixed Income Small Fund Family Group"
    I took a quick peek at BIEAX.
    There have been three years since 2015 where the fund's corresponding category and index had losses.
    BIEAX outperformed both on all three occasions.
    However, the fund did suffer a 2.05% loss in 2020 while the calendar/index gained less than 1%.
    Three of the portfolio managers have over 15 years tenure on the strategy (BIEAX inception date: 01/31/2011).
    The fund generated top decile returns for the trailing 3 year, 5 year, and 10 year periods according to M*.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/bieax/performance
    Edit/Add: I almost forgot that Brandes International Equity was featured in a recent Barron's article.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/top-stocks/international-stocks-are-beating-the-u-s-how-one-fund-is-playing-it/ar-AA1Bdcw6
  • Bonds Holding Up, But Playbook Is Changing
    Barron's article suggests focusing on high-quality bonds now instead of junk bonds.
    The S&P 500 was down more than 8% from its peak on Feb 19 while AGG returned
    ~1.4% and TLT returned ~3.2% during this period. "The ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread
    jumped to 3.23% Tuesday from 2.68% when the stock market peaked Feb. 19 according to the St. Louis Fed."

    This has led to losses for junk bond holders but spreads are still narrow on some risky bonds.
    The Fed's dot-plot graph suggests two interest-rate cuts this year which could accelerate bond returns.
    Growth concerns have now superceded inflation concerns in the Treasury market.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bonds-are-holding-up-but-the-playbook-is-changing/ar-AA1BfTXl
  • Fido’s “basket” option
    Fidelity allows users to create “baskets” of securities for ease of trading or rebalancing. It’s an interesting concept I spent over an hour exploring today. Clunky / frustrating to say the least. I wanted to see if it was easier to buy and sell from a collection of funds (all my CEFs) instead of having to sell or add to each separately.
    - The option allows you to set-up / manage up to 5 portfolios, each with up to 50 securities (stocks, etfs, CEF s, etc.).
    - There’s a $4.99 monthly fee for the service (after one free month)
    - You can cancel at any time. If you do, the holdings will revert back into your regular account.
    - When you move holdings into a designated basket they no longer appear under your main account. In my case about half my Roth IRA holdings disappeared from the Roth account. There’s a “basket” link nearby, however, so you can easily access the basket holdings.
    - Settings allow you to set the “weight” of each holding or simply input “equal weight.”
    - Apparently to rebalance back to your set allocations you simply press a tab and the program executes the necessary buys and sells. I’ll better understand that feature as the trading week ensues.
    - Disappointingly, once you have moved existing holdings into a basket, share totals fail to appear (dollar values and other data do surface). This might possibly clear up with time? It’s still possible, however, to view total shares by clicking on a specific holding inside the basket.
    If anyone uses this feature and / or has additional insights into the technicalities involved please share.
  • Ownership breakdown of US equity market & Return by Country
    A Wealth of Common Sense detailed some interesting charts....https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/03/the-stock-market-is-always-changing/
    Per Goldman Sachs, ownership of US equities:
    38% Households
    18% Foreign investors
    11% Active mutual fund
    6% passive mutual fund
    9% ETFs
    10% Pension/govt retirement
    4% Business holdings
    2% Hedge Funds
    image
    And Denmark is champion of the past 20 year returns (market return by country), followed by the USA...
    image
  • EXTREMELY late TRP tax documents just arrived, 21st March.
    Confirms the wisdom of my decision to leave that firm. This is disgraceful. I had previously received a very incomplete form which informed me that anything else would get to me by 15th March. (Whatever happened to the 31st JANUARY deadline??? Ork? ) I immediately called tax preparer. She was just about to e-file the 1040. I caught her just in time. TRP is an abomination these days. Outrageous.
  • Munis’ Tax-Exempt Status Could Be at Risk

    yep, posted in 2024, been adding to since then, hoping it remains under the radar :
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/63101/tax-free-u-s-bond-market-and-gop-control-for-2-4-years#latest
    could be a bad idea anyway w/inflation...which a very large group of dolts expect as 0% !
    nothing outside long global recession could be farther from reality.
    image
  • Munis’ Tax-Exempt Status Could Be at Risk
    Well, that's just swell. I wondered why the muni market was acting funny
    "Munis’ Tax-Exempt Status Could Be at Risk. What It Means for Investors."
    Heads up, municipal bond investors: Amid all the Trump 2.0 policy proposals, there is one you should be aware of: The potential for munis to lose their tax-exempt status. “Eliminate Exclusion of Interest on State and Local Bonds” is listed on page 9 of a 50-page House Budget Committee document prepared in January that lists some 200 ways the government could raise extra funds to offset the impact of extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/munis-tax-exempt-status-risk-797eaaef?mod=Searchresults
    Similar story from Bloomberg/Yahoo
    "Trump Adviser Calls to End Muni Tax Break in Threat to Market"
    Stephen Moore, an informal economic adviser to President Donald Trump, floated eliminating the federal tax subsidy for municipal bonds, a concerning sign for the market where states and cities raise debt.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-adviser-calls-end-muni-170017075.html
  • ECB’s Lane Backs Digital Euro to Avoid Rising Stablecoin Risks
    There is no Dem version of Project 2025 to my knowledge. All they know how to do is create inward-facing firing squads. And no, I certainly don't take what the 'mass market' media and blogosphere throws out there as gospel or worth acting
    This FT* article may be of interest related to this discussion (free link) and could serve as interesting food-for-thought. https://archive.is/UNFdg
    * most certainly not 'mass market' media for the general public
  • CDs and Money Markets
    Just bought a new replacement window with solid wood frame identical to one purchased from same dealer in February 2018 - just over 7 years ago.
    Price in February 2018 with 3-day promised delivery $400
    Price today with 6-week estimated delivery $675
    Increase $275
    Percent of increase about 65%
    Divided by 7 (years) = about 9.25% per year
    Bottom line - 4.5% on mm accounts probably isn’t going to protect your savings against inflation - at least in the housing / construction / materials sectors.
    Not trying to steal your thread @dtconroe. But I think any discussion of “return” needs to consider the impact of inflation.
    Thanks for the ”cheery” commentary @msf / One wonders what current or former Fox News host may end up running the FDIC and “protecting” our savings - - Bartiromo?
  • S&P 500 slides into correction territory as Trump trade wars spook investors
    It's amazing how many people are so sure that stock decline is related to a prez they don't like.
    But when the price goes up they forget it conviently.
    I read Yardini from yesterday and thought of you.
    "Last Thursday, I visited with some of our accounts in Connecticut. They seemed remarkably relaxed that day as the S&P 500 fell into correction territory. Many of them are seasoned institutional investors and have been through lots of corrections and bear markets. Everyone attributed the selloff to Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0."
  • ECB’s Lane Backs Digital Euro to Avoid Rising Stablecoin Risks
    Hi Rick,
    IMO, people's assessment of cause and effect are backwards in this case.
    Trump agenda (succeed or fail) points to a weaker dollar. I expect USD to be lower three years from now. For a society addicted to catchy phrases (so they do not have to process), "strong dollar" has become a slogan leaders pitch and people eat up but really what the administration would shoot for is a stable dollar and not a strong dollar.
    ***********
    As to realignment, we have elections every two years. You will need a few successive elections to go in a specific policy direction for a re(or mis)alignment to take hold. Somethings that have been evolving for the last 8-10 years are somewhat irreversible. But then there are other things that are ideas and have not yet taken root in the society. Whether these ideas take root or not depends on who is providing leadership and not just leaders.
    If there is a Democratic party equivalent of Project 2025, please share the link. I want to read.
    As you know, if the general public knows about something happening for the last 8-10 years means the DC apparatus (does not matter the party affiliation) has been at it for much longer. As an example, I helped my ex-employer in 2018 to exit China by divesting their Chinese business to a global Chinese company.
    We have 800 military bases (of all sizes and kinds) in 80 different countries. Has there been a significant reduction of those (not counting Afghanistan) in the last 8-10 years or is there a firm expectation of significant reduction in them? Watch this metric. Closing USAID is not it. Reciprocal Tariffs is not it. We have to separate / distinguish evolutionary from revolutionary changes.
    I am just concerned that we in this forum consume way too much of what the media and whoever (e.g., Think Tanks) wants us to consume. (I am aware that this forum, more than any other investing forum I had ever visited, has a large group that does not rely on stock investments to meet their retirement (sustenance or charitable) goals and they can afford pursuits other than investing.)
    Good weekend.
  • Money-Losing Retail Crowd Keeps Buying Stocks as Market Teeters
    Following are excerpts from a current report by The Associated Press:
    Nothing that a little glue won't fix...
    U.S. safety regulators on Thursday recalled virtually all Cybertrucks on the road, the eighth recall since deliveries to customers began just over a year ago.
    The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s recall, which covers more than 46,000 Cybertrucks, warned that an exterior panel that runs along the left and right side of the windshield can detach while driving, creating a dangerous road hazard for other drivers, increasing the risk of a crash.
    The stainless steel strip is bound to the truck’s assembly with a structural adhesive, the NHTSA report said. The remedy uses an adhesive that’s not been found to be vulnerable to “environmental embrittlement,” the NHTSA said, and includes additional reinforcements.

    But other than that, there's just been a couple of minor problems...
    And a few excerpts from a report by "Wired":
    Five of the Cybertruck’s recalls have required Tesla drivers to bring their vehicles into the shop. The most sweeping have included recalls related to failed front windshield wiper motor controllers and malfunctioning pedal pads, which Tesla said were treated with an unapproved soap during assembly that allowed them to become trapped, leading to “unintended acceleration.”
    Even before the Cybertruck began to roll off production lines, the truck was subject to snafus and delays. Its glitzy 2019 unveiling event may be most memorable for an incident in which a prototype’s supposedly unbreakable glass failed to stand up to a metal ball thrown at its driver window. Amidst the pandemic, Tesla pushed Cybertruck production from 2021 to late 2022 and finally to late 2023. Meanwhile, its base price jumped from $40,000 to $61,000.
    Leaked internal documents later obtained by the German newspaper Handelsblatt and WIRED showed that, by January 2022, Tesla was still struggling internally with a preproduction “alpha” version of the vehicle, which had basic issues with suspension, body sealing, noise levels, handling, and braking.

    So there's been a few glitches. What do you want for only $61k (or $99.9k for the high end model)? Give the guy a break- he's been very busy with other important stuff that no voters asked him to do.
    Note: Text emphasis added in the AP report.
  • Money-Losing Retail Crowd Keeps Buying Stocks as Market Teeters
    @Mark Oh, you just have to have the Cybertruck Transformer Version. It transforms into a junk pile as you drive it. It is the ultimate in today's disassembly Transformers.
    The Cybertruck has MAJOR issues