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David, I don't know about others...but for me yes, I prefer to be UP 7% (VGLT) when the stock market is down 6.5% (VTI). As for how far back...well ytd VGLT UP 7% PIMIX DOWN .8%; 3yrs VGLT UP 6.1% PIMIX UP 3.8%; 5yrs VGLT UP 9.7% PIMIX UP 7.7% Over the longer term I expect PIMIX will beat VGLT since rates will likely rise slowly over time (though who really knows), but it will likely run in the direction of the stock market and hence is not what one looks for in the bond portion of a balanced portfolio.hmm. Not seeing that as much as you are. I know about the Pimco classes, thanks. Just was looking at performance of the various bond funds I mentioned, not seeing clearly how to make a true diversification decision.
>> You wanted to be heavy in VGLT till this week.
Not starting in the fall of 2010 or two years later, or the spring of 2013. Or indeed the spring of last year. How far back are you looking?
First off, I like and own both. As for going all in, DSENX is too new to draw any firm conclusions except that it seems to add some alpha without much downside risk. The closest analogy with a longer track record is the PIMCO stocks plus series. I think they too have had great run(s) but over very long periods of time the alpha is mostly lost. Whether the shiller pe aspect of DL adds alpha over time without significant risk, we'll have to see. PIMIX, while great is absolutely NOT a diversifier of stock risk as you would want in a bond fund holding 50% of your portfolio. It's had some bad moments, including this year, when you would want your bond fund to smooth out the volatility (VGLT up 7%; PIMIX down 1%). To me PIMIX should be treated more like a high yield offering rather than core bond. That said, PIMIX IS my second largest bond holding after Vanguard LT Tax Free.Since 11/13, DSENX (inception date) and PONDX 50/50, much less 60/40, appear to significantly outperform most if not all of these --- except for PRWCX (which of course is on this major tear) and BRUFX. Combo Martin ratio >5 and UI >2 (short-term).
I wonder if the two funds will continue in this vein.
And I found out about DSENX via Snowball, woohoo. I should become a 0.75% adviser and put clients into them and nothing other....
Love DSENX and PIMIX...have nice allocations to both but could never bring myself to going all in on a 50/50 basis. I could see both imploding in a way I really can't see VWINX (PIMIX has had it's "moments" despite it's fantastic record) and DSENX relies on derivatives, so who knows.
I came across DSENX on this site thanks to you, David, and I've been happy with it, but I too would be nervous about putting 50% of my modest portfolio into it. All I have to back up my gut feeling is a general sense that a fund based on derivatives has an additional layer of risks (including counterparty, though Doubleline's site insists that risk is minimal), and that relatively simple quant strategies have a habit of working until they suddenly don't -- or in a best case scenario, until everyone figures out they work and the advantage is lost.Thanks so much for this encouraging response; but can you possibly elaborate on implosion hunches, scenarios and circumstances and any other thoughts or variables, if you have anything beyond gut feeling? (not arguing, just curious).
At some wealthier point, if my thesis continues successful, I will go to DSEEX and PIMIX, yes, and probably not 50/50, actually.
I also see that for the last 1y and 2y, the 50/50 combo beats or equals the mighty PRWCX, not that shortish periods are altogether conclusive. So maybe I have stumbled on a winner combo. Not that this is really original thinking :) .
Love DSENX and PIMIX...have nice allocations to both but could never bring myself to going all in on a 50/50 basis. I could see both imploding in a way I really can't see VWINX (PIMIX has had it's "moments" despite it's fantastic record) and DSENX relies on derivatives, so who knows.Since 11/13, DSENX (inception date) and PONDX 50/50, much less 60/40, appear to significantly outperform most if not all of these --- except for PRWCX (which of course is on this major tear) and BRUFX. Combo Martin ratio >5 and UI >2 (short-term).
I wonder if the two funds will continue in this vein.
And I found out about DSENX via Snowball, woohoo. I should become a 0.75% adviser and put clients into them and nothing other....
Great post, Charles. Thanks for clearing things up !Lipper puts VBINX in the Growth Allocation category. There are 113 such funds in its database ending January 2016, at least 10 years old, oldest share class only, open and closed.
VBINX stacks up pretty well. Here is list from top, sorted by 10 year annualized total return (APR), which includes expenses, reinvested dividends, and any max front load. (As always, no accounting for category drift or survivorship.)
It beat out Dodge & Cox Balanced DODBX, which has delivered 5% APR, placing it 41 out of 113.
Here is same list based a Martin Ratio, which is the risk return adjusted metric used to computed MFO Return Group ratings. Martin is excess total return over 90 day TBill divided by Ulcer Index, as described in the paper by Peter Martin, entitlded: An Alternative Approach to the Measurement of Investment Risk & Risk-Adjusted Performance.
If we look across all the asset allocation categories, VBINX ranks even better.
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