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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Markets feel “rudderless.” I haven’t a clue. But until today inflation hedges (gold, etc.) were running hot.
    Gundlach is expecting recession. Sounds like he’s cutting risk.
  • Lipper Names CrossingBridge "Best Fixed Income Small Fund Family Group"
    Artisan is usually conscientious regarding mutual fund capacity management.
    ARTKX closed to most new investors in 2007, reopened in 2009, and then closed again in 2011.
    The fund briefly reopened in March 2020 but was subsequently soft-closed in June 2021.
    M* places ARTKX in the Foreign Large Blend category.
    The fund has generated top decile returns for the trailing 3 year, 5 year, 10 year, and 15 year periods.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/artkx/performance
    Edit/Add¹:
    "The strategy's asset base of USD 46.6 billion as of September 2024 was sizable,
    but its long-term orientation, large-cap emphasis, and quality focus help alleviate concerns.
    In recent years, the team has suppressed some holdings information to protect liquidity
    when it's entering and exiting positions.
    And finally, the fact that this group no longer supports the USD 29.4 billion Artisan Global Value
    strategy gives the team more leeway than it had before the 2018 team split."

    ¹ M* take on ARTKX asset base size
  • Trump awards Boeing contract to build next-generation US fighter jet
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    New aircraft, to be called F-47, is intended to operate alongside drones
    Donald Trump on Friday awarded Boeing the contract to build the US air force’s most sophisticated fighter jet, handing the company a much-needed win.
    The Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program will replace Lockheed Martin’s F-22 Raptor with a crewed aircraft built to enter combat alongside drones. The plane’s design remains a closely held secret, but would probably include stealth, advanced sensors and cutting-edge engines.
    The Seattle-based company beat out Lockheed Martin for the deal. Shares of Boeing were up 5% after the news. Lockheed’s shares fell nearly 6%. Reuters reported Boeing’s victory before the official announcement.
    For Boeing, the win marks a reversal of fortune for a company that has struggled on both the commercial and defense sides of its business. It is a major boost for its St Louis, Missouri, fighter jet production business. The engineering and manufacturing development contract is worth more than $20bn. The winner will eventually receive hundreds of billions of dollars in orders over the contract’s multi-decade lifetime.
    NGAD was conceived as a “family of systems” centered around a sixth-generation fighter to counter adversaries such as China and Russia.
    Boeing’s commercial operations have struggled as it attempts to get its bestselling 737 Max jet production back up to full speed, while its defense operation has been weighed down by underperforming contracts for mid-air refueling tankers, drones and training jets. Cost overruns at the KC-46 mid-air refueling tanker program have surpassed $7bn in recent years, while another fixed-price contract to upgrade two Air Force One planes has created a $2bn loss for the top-five US defense contractor.
    Lockheed, which was recently eliminated from the competition to build the navy’s next-generation carrier-based stealth fighter, faces an uncertain future in the high-end fighter market after the loss.
    The billionaire and presidential adviser Elon Musk has voiced skepticism about the effectiveness of crewed high-end fighters, saying cheaper drones were a better option.
    While Lockheed could still protest against the award to Boeing, the fact Trump announced the deal in a high-profile Oval Office press conference could reduce the possibility of a public airing of arguments against the agreement from the defense firm based in Bethesda, Maryland.
    Comment: There is speculation that the aircraft was named the F47 because a $47 Billion dollar contract overrun is expected.
  • Money-Losing Retail Crowd Keeps Buying Stocks as Market Teeters
    Bloomberg Today
    BTW at bottom of Article they do not mention that Ives said Muskrat should get out of the Government and go back to running the company, as he has caused this crash
    TESLA stock is in a freefall. Its sales are plunging around the world. Even its most avid Wall Street bulls are turning cautious. But one group is buying the electric-vehicle maker’s shares like never before: CEO Elon Musk’s fans.
    The company has long had an ardent fan base of individual investors who hang on Musk’s every word on X, the social-media platform he owns. They analyze Tesla in great detail in online forums and largely function as a hype crew for the stock.
    But their current level of enthusiasm is staggeringly high, even by recent historical standards. Individual investors have been net buyers of Tesla shares for 13 straight sessions through Thursday, pumping $8 billion into the stock, retail trading data from JPMorgan Chase’s global equity derivatives strategist Emma Wu shows. That’s the biggest inflow over any buying streak since 2015, which is as far back as the data goes.
    What makes the buying notable is Tesla’s share price has sunk 17% over this time, wiping out more than $155 billion from its market value.
    “Tesla made some rookie to mid-stage public market investors extremely wealthy, a lot of people became millionaires because of this stock,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder at DataTrek Research. “People don’t forget that. And they will come back to a stock again and again if they feel it has been beaten up.”
    Tesla shares have been on a steep slide since mid-December when it touched an all-time high fueled by optimism from Donald Trump’s election victory. But that euphoria vanished, with the stock retreating more than 50% from its Dec. 17 record, making it the second-biggest decliner in the S&P 500 Index this year. The rout has been so brutal that on Thursday, Musk sought to reassure Tesla employees during an all-hands meeting.
    What’s become clear is what Wall Street thought would be a boon for the company — Musk’s prominent role in the Trump administration as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency — has instead become an albatross. His growing political presence and involvement with controversies in Europe have triggered a backlash against the company and its leader, with the cars increasingly seen as political symbols. Protesters have thrown Molotov cocktails at Tesla showrooms and vandalized charging stations.
    Sales of the Tesla’s cars have sunk in key European markets, such as France and Germany, as well as in China and Australia. Global numbers won’t be available until the company reports its first-quarter delivery figures early next month, but analysts across Wall Street have been aggressively cutting their estimates for sales and profits, citing the bleak data from around the globe.
    On Thursday, Morgan Stanley analyst and longtime Tesla bull Adam Jonas lowered his price target on the stock and reduced his sales expectations for the company, citing growing competition, an aging vehicle lineup and a “buyers’ strike from negative brand sentiment.” However, he kept his buy-equivalent rating on the shares, saying the weak near-term expectations are “not particularly narrative changing” for a company whose future depends on robotics and artificial intelligence.
    Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives on Friday lauded Musk’s efforts for “hand-holding” employees and investors at a key time, and said that if the CEO continued to lead on his vision, the stock will be on a growth path where 90% of its valuation will be led by autonomous-driving technology and robotics. This bullishness explains at least some of retail traders’ continuing enthusiasm for the shares.
    “These kind of investors don’t care about valuations at all,” Colas said. “They just believe in the future of the company and Elon Musk’s abilities.”
  • Money-Losing Retail Crowd Keeps Buying Stocks as Market Teeters
    These broad generalizations are, imo, pointless. What kind of stocks are these retailers buying? MAG-7 momentum stocks? What sector? Or are they just plowing $$$ into index funds, which by their very nature, are market-cappy/momentum-based? They make it sound like individual investors should just go to cash and sit the market out right now....
    +1
    What I’d like to know is how much of this buying is passive flow into 401-Ks or other retirement accounts? Is there any data on the percentage of so called “retail investors” still working vs the percent who are retired? A guess would be that a much higher percentage are working and dollar averaging in. However, in terms of actual wealth controlled, retirees may well have the upper hand.
    Although I earlier posted the article, it does sound like 90% hype and 10% substance. Shamefully short on details.
    From JD_co - ”Thus far, Tech has pulled back after a tremendous run-up.”
    Yes. We can thank TSLA for a good part of the market damage. It has lost 50% of its value since mid December.
  • Money-Losing Retail Crowd Keeps Buying Stocks as Market Teeters
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/money-losing-retail-crowd-keeps-093000952.html
    (Bloomberg) -- In a stock market battered by trade turmoil and growing fears of an economic slowdown, retail investors are doubling down, undeterred as their losses mount.
    Individual traders pumped more than $12 billion into US equities in the week ending March 19, retail-trading data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. showed. The pace of buying was significantly higher than the group’s 12-month average, according to Emma Wu, a global equity derivatives strategist at the bank.
    Market watchers keep a close eye on retail traders as they are often the last to cut their exposure to stocks, so the latest bout of aggressive buying from mom-and-pop investors may suggest that equities haven’t found the bottom yet.
    The recent behavior of individual investors is characteristic of a “down” year in the stock market, Wu said. It was also seen in 2022, she noted. That’s when the equity benchmark sank 19%, the only down year of the past six. “This is a hallmark of their ‘buy-the-dip’ mentality,” Wu said.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Added to NRDCX and invested the smallest amount in an individual corporate bond
    - cusip # 37046AFR1 General Motors Financial Corp
    - 4.85% yield (BBB)
    - 2-yr
    - first call 3/26
    I have been investing in treasuries and agency bonds. This was a very small investment in an individual corporate.
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund
    YTD:
    PRWCX .84
    TUHYX .96
    PRCPX 1.26
    PRCFX .97
    FALN 1.56 higher quality junk.
    It's fun for me to keep tabs, daily. I own them all except FALN. I used to own FALN, got out with a tiny profit. If I want such volatility, I can depend on my single stocks for that.
    Longer term numbers mean more. But the frame here in this thread is more recent.
  • Schumer now says Democrats will support Republican funding bill to avoid shutdown
    I can’t help but ask, “what if?” What could trump/musk do if the government DID shutdown that they couldn’t while it’s open? Better or worse than what the CR has wrought?
    Not for nothing, but maybe Schumer got it right in a no-win situation.
    What he says
  • Lipper Names CrossingBridge "Best Fixed Income Small Fund Family Group"
    I quickly scanned the list of 2025 Lipper Fund Awards.
    The "best" funds (10 years) in the International Large-Cap Core, International Large-Cap Growth,
    and International Large-Cap Value stood out as being very good funds I was somewhat familiar with.
    They are MFS International Equity Fund, WCM Focused International Growth Fund,
    and Artisan International Value Fund respectively.
    I'll need to examine this list further.
  • FS Chiron Capital Allocation Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1593547/000139834425005782/fp0092737-2_497.htm
    497 1 fp0092737-2_497.htm
    THE ADVISORS’ INNER CIRCLE FUND III
    (the “Trust”)
    FS Chiron Capital Allocation Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated March 20, 2025 to the Fund’s Summary Prospectus (the “Summary
    Prospectus”), Prospectus (the “Prospectus”) and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”),
    each dated March 1, 2025
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI, and should be read in conjunction with the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI.
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust, at the recommendation of FS Investments, the parent company of Chiron Investment Management, LLC (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser of the Fund, has approved a plan of liquidation providing for the liquidation of the Fund’s assets and the distribution of the net proceeds pro rata to the Fund’s shareholders. In connection therewith, the Fund is closed to investments from new and existing shareholders effective immediately. The Fund is expected to cease operations and liquidate on or about April 21, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”). The Liquidation Date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Trust’s officers.
    Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem (sell) their shares in the manner described in the “Purchasing, Selling and Exchanging Fund Shares – How to Sell Your Fund Shares” section of the Prospectus. For those Fund shareholders that do not redeem (sell) their shares prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute to each such shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash distribution equal in value to the shareholder’s interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date.
    In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, the Adviser may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate the Fund’s orderly liquidation, such as by holding cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
    The liquidation distribution amount will include any accrued income and capital gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will generally be a taxable event for shareholders investing through taxable accounts. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your particular tax situation. Shareholders remaining in the Fund on the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund. However, the net asset value of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will reflect costs of liquidating the Fund. Shareholders will receive liquidation proceeds as soon as practicable after the Liquidation Date.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • Schumer now says Democrats will support Republican funding bill to avoid shutdown
    Schumer said the courts would be closed if govt shutdown so there would be no pushback against Musk/Trump. That's why he says he reluctantly approved it.
    LOL, the rest of his party didn’t get the memo. Maybe if he just ‘splained to them they won’t primary him.
  • Lipper Names CrossingBridge "Best Fixed Income Small Fund Family Group"
    "The highest Lipper Leader for Consistent Return (Effective Return) value within each eligible classification determines the fund classification winner over three, five, or 10 years."
    Methodology PDF
  • Lipper Names CrossingBridge "Best Fixed Income Small Fund Family Group"
    An interesting list with 3 5 10 year categories.
    I assume they just used raw performance. Some of their picks are a bit odd
    Kinetics Global is 3 and 5 year winner for Global Small/mid
    45% Bitcoin and Texas Pacific Land !
  • Vanguard International Explorer
    List of Vanguard funds with three or more investment advisors:
    VMMSX - 3
    VEVFX - 3
    VHGEX - 3
    VGIAX - 3
    VTRIX - 3
    VASVX - 3
    VWUAX - 3
    VWNAX - 4
    VEXRX - 5
    https://institutional.vanguard.com/tools/investment/active-portfolio-managers.html
  • Vanguard International Explorer
    It's been an underwhelming fund since I started observing it from 2005. I am not sure if multi-subadvisor approach leads to any significant outperformance over benchmark. There could be exceptions, but in general that is a questionable approach for active funds.
    I was in OAKEX for a while, and then moved last year to Artisan International Explorer (ARDBX) fund. Generally, Artisan did a good job with their new funds, especially when are new and small. I am a very happy investor of ARTKX since 2008, and then I also bought ARTYX within a few months of inception (believing in manager with track record with a new fund). More recently, I also invested in their EM debt fund along with ARDBX.
  • Apple Shakes Up AI Executive Ranks in Bid to Turn Around Siri
    Press Summary of longer article
    Excerpted directly from above referenced Bloomberg article (3/20/25):
    “Apple Inc. is undergoing a rare shake-up of its executive ranks, aiming to get its artificial intelligence efforts back on track after months of delays and stumbles, according to people familiar with the situation. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook has lost confidence in the ability of Al head John Giannandrea to execute on product development, so he's moving over another top executive to help: Vision Pro creator Mike Rockwell. In a new role, Rockwell will be in charge of the Siri virtual assistant, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the moves haven't been announced.”
  • FOMC Statement, 3/19/25
    From The Barron's Daily
    :
    The Fed’s Outlook Should Have Spooked Markets. Why It Did the Opposite and 5 Other Things to Know Today.
    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell showed his strength as a market whisperer on Wednesday. Even though interest rates stayed the same, stocks rose by the most on a Fed decision day since last July.
    Most important, perhaps, was that Powell managed to avoid the ire of President Donald Trump. Sure, Trump posted that the Fed should be cutting after the decision. But it was a relatively mild rebuke that doesn’t suggest the central bank and the administration are on a collision course.
    The market’s embrace of Powell’s message is a bit of a puzzle. The projections still show just two quarter-point rate cuts this year, the same as in December. In fact, a closer examination shows the bias among rate setters has shifted toward fewer cuts—even though the median outlook is the same, fewer people see more than two cuts. What’s more, Powell was particularly eager to emphasize the uncertainty in the outlook.
    It gets worse. The Fed also raised its inflation forecasts and lowered projections for growth. That’s starting to sound a bit like stagflation, or inflation without economic growth, which isn’t good for stocks.
    But the market seemed to take this in its stride because Powell instilled confidence in other ways. First, the Fed eased plans to sell bonds back into the market, which is a subtle form of lowering borrowing costs. He also said that if tariffs were to cause an uptick in inflation, the Fed would be able to look through it as long as it’s “transitory.”
    That might be an unfortunate word choice. It was used to describe what was happening after the Covid-19 pandemic, which of course didn’t seem like short-lived inflation at all. But it’s true that the Fed could actually make things worse if it responds to temporary price gains that will blow over by themselves.
    Investors are right to be encouraged by Powell’s words. There is a lot to worry about these days—tariffs, wars, and rapid changes to government policies. At least Powell brings calm and flexibility in times of heightened market pain.
  • FOMC Statement, 3/19/25
    Excerpt from the WSJ -
    (The quote from Powell is from the press conference following statement release and sounds a bit more concerning / critical of the tariffs (“an exogenous source”) than what’s reflected in the official FOMC statement.)
    The Federal Reserve's first set of projections since Donald Trump's inauguration underscored -in the central bank's understated and technocratic fashion-just how much the president's plans to press ahead with widespread tariffs have turned the economic outlook on its head. Months ago, policymakers presumed they would spend 2025 gradually cutting rates to keep inflation heading down without a big rise in joblessness to achieve the so-called soft landing. The latest projections point to the prospect that tariffs covering a swath of goods and materials will send up prices while sapping investment, sentiment and growth, at least in the short run. ‘We now have inflation coming in from an exogenous source, but the underlying inflationary picture before that was basically 2/% inflation, 2% growth and 4% unemployment’, said Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday.
    Excerpted from The Wall Street Journal - Reported By Nick Timiraos (10:40 PM 3/19)
  • Schumer now says Democrats will support Republican funding bill to avoid shutdown
    I can’t help but ask, “what if?” What could trump/musk do if the government DID shutdown that they couldn’t while it’s open? Better or worse than what the CR has wrought?
    Not for nothing, but maybe Schumer got it right in a no-win situation.
    It's like a volleyball game. The CR was the "set up" for the slam, the Big Beautiful Bill. I have yet to hear Schumer explain why he changed his mind. But as the leader of the party he must do what he considers right (or correct).