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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Overrated Fund Families
    I would say DSENX is a mix of a quant system on the equity side and human managed on the fixed income part, which by M*'s numbers is around 40%. Which confuses the heck out of me why it is in the equity large value category with a bench mark of S&P 500. Maybe I'm thinking incorrectly, but I see this fund as an allocation value style fund.
    Whatever it is, it's method is working well right now. It is 10% of my self managed portfolio.
    Question for @davidrmoran, do you know how to find out what 4 of the 10 sectors of the S&P the fund is invested in at any given time?
  • Stocks Versus Bonds: Which Best Help Meet Retirement Goals?
    Hi Guys,
    I couldn't agree more with you that the referenced article is extremely weak and confusing. That's especially disappointing given the credentials and professional positions of the authors. The article could and should have been more informative and far more explicit.
    There is little doubt that we grossly under-save for retirement. By how much? The shortfall is huge. Here is a Link that provides nice summary graphs that highlight the shortfall:
    http://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-average-family-saved-for-retirement-2016-3
    The referenced piece quotes Paul Samuelon. He's one smart economist. He famously remarked that " I hate to be wrong. But I hate more to stay wrong". So do I. Constant investment learning is crucial to success.
    Having a diversified portfolio is necessary for that success. When young, a portfolio top-heavy in equities and other high return, perhaps volatile holdings, is very acceptable. Later, bond products could be added to,attenuate that volatility if so desired.
    However, I personally recommend and practice retaining equity-like positions in my portfolio. Like most folks, I under-saved a little preparing for my retirement. Playing catchup is risky but sometimes necessary business.
    Best Wishes.
  • Kiplinger: 105 Most Popular Funds For Your Retirement Savings
    FYI: There's no denying the importance and popularity of 401(k)s for retirement savers. Americans have $4.8 trillion invested in these tax-deferred savings accounts, according to the Investment Company Institute, and there are 52 million active 401(k) participants. BrightScope, a financial-information company that rates retirement-savings plans, compiled this list for Kiplinger of the most popular mutual funds in 401(k) plans based on funds' 401(k) assets under management.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T047-C009-S003-105-most-popular-funds-for-your-retirement-savings.html
  • Ben Carlson: The Hierarchy Of Investment Difficulty: Periodic Table Of Returns By Sector 2007-2016
    Hi @Ted and others,
    Good information as I feel a good sector allocation is very important for good returns.
    Something I feel has helped me and something that I strive to do is to maintain at least a 5% exposure in the minority sectors of materials, real estate, telecom and utilities and a minimum exposure of 9% in the majority sectors of consumer cyclicals, financial services, energy, industrials, technology, consumber defensive and health care. When the mimimun holdings amounts are added up this totals 83% and leaves 17% that can be moved around to increase the weightings in my sectors of choice.
    Currently, my four most heavly overweighted sectors from their minimum base allocations are energy, financials, industrials and technology. Thus far this year as reflected in Dr. Carson's chart all four have been strong performers.
    And, so it goes ...
    Old_Skeet
  • Ben Carlson: The Hierarchy Of Investment Difficulty: Periodic Table Of Returns By Sector 2007-2016
    FYI: Being the “investment guy” in the family means I’m often approached during the holidays or at parties with questions about the markets. My most recent question was about a sector fund investment and its prospects going forward.
    I’m sure you could come up with any number of intelligent-sounding narratives to describe which sectors will perform best or worst in the future, but no one really knows the answer to this question.
    When asked about the potential for the sector in question I was reminded of this chart I created a couple years ago, which I have updated through last Friday:
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/12/the-hierarchy-of-investment-difficulty/
  • Overrated Fund Families

    Was Bridgeway overrated? It may be the best of the bunch (quants), so perhaps the question might be rephrased as "are quant funds overrated?"
    I think they are, generally speaking. IMHO the "less quant" a quant fund can be, the better it probably will do. IE, Vanguard's VMVFX is what I call quant-lite in terms of its construction, mixed w/a touch of active management/currency hedging....I own it, and like its construction, allocation, and investment process. Bridgeway's equal-wt BRLIX is all quant in its construction, but it's a simple system that is described and easily replicated if you didn't want to pay the .15 ER to the company. (I think BRLIX is one of their better-performing funds over time but haven't compared them recently.) If I need to park money into something that's a (thankfully) non-index LC fund, that's my go-to place.
    Compare that to, say Arnott's PAUIX which has (last check) like 20 different slices represented by PIMCO funds -- with a ton of overlap if memory serves -- and percentages that are, imho, totally useless in terms of generating meaningful investment performance or diversity (ie, ABCDE position is 2%, etc.). Heck, some of these robo-advisors do that too ... frankly I think anything less than 10% isn't really much of a 'diversifier' anyway.
  • Overrated Fund Families
    American Beacon has two different LCV funds. I believe you mean American Beacon Bridgeway Large Cap Value (BRLVX) and not American Beacon Lg Cap Value (AAGPX).
    As appears to be common with quant funds, Bridgeway's rule based systems (or model based, if you prefer) worked until they didn't. Between about 2007 and 2011 Montgomery worked on developing new models. You can see the change in performance of several funds around then. Sometimes the changes worked for a longer period of time, sometimes they only worked for a couple of years (BRUSX).
    When Quant Funds Fail, M*, August 2010.
    Was Bridgeway overrated? It may be the best of the bunch (quants), so perhaps the question might be rephrased as "are quant funds overrated?"
  • Greed Is Trumping Fear: Investors Give Stocks Another Chance
    "The change has been so seismic that investors poured a net $20.7 billion into U.S. stock funds last month. That's the biggest month for stock funds since 2014 and a stark turnaround from the nearly $76 billion that left those same funds in the 10 earlier months, according to Morningstar."
    That's great news for some of us. Although valuations have been stretched for some time (to say the least) there hasn't been the kind of euphoria among the Mom & Pop crowd that would lead me to move to a highly defensive position. My sense is markets don't die so much from high valuation as from investor euphoria. (Were the cause simply valuation ... we wouldn't witness drops in the magnate of 25-50% as sometimes occur.) Might a nice bubble now be in the formative stage? How many months or years will it persist before the inevitable pop?
    At some future point (months or years out) fixed income will again look attractive and the smarter money will move out of their equity positions in favor of fixed. One fly in the ointment, alluded to by the writer, is we don't really know if Trump's stimulative agenda will get through Congress. Conceivably, he could hit a roadblock that would drastically alter current market perceptions.
  • Greed Is Trumping Fear: Investors Give Stocks Another Chance
    FYI: For years, many refused to buy into the hype even as the stock market climbed to record after record. Wounds from the 2008 financial crisis were still too raw, and investors couldn't stomach the risk of watching their nest eggs drop by more than half for a second time. Instead, they favored bonds, which have pumped out relatively steady and healthy returns for decades.
    Enter Donald Trump.
    Since his surprise victory in last month's presidential election, stock prices have soared even higher, and bond prices have sunk on expectations that faster economic growth and inflation may be on the way. The change has been so seismic that investors poured a net $20.7 billion into U.S. stock funds last month. That's the biggest month for stock funds since 2014 and a stark turnaround from the nearly $76 billion that left those same funds in the 10 earlier months, according to Morningstar.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://bigstory.ap.org/article/eccce9265a14436696911e70363398df/greed-trumping-fear-investors-give-stocks-another-chance
  • Stocks Versus Bonds: Which Best Help Meet Retirement Goals?
    FYI: At a conference hosted by Boston University in 2006, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul A. Samuelson asked the audience whether personal finance was an exact science. He answered his own question with remarkable wit and wisdom: “Of course, the answer to that is a flat no. If this disappoints anyone in the audience, now is a good moment to rectify your miscalculation by leaving.”
    Yet one of Mr. Samuelson's many contributions to the field of economics has been to build mathematical (dare we say, “scientific”) models to better understand how to optimize personal finance decisions, such as: How much should individuals save for retirement? How should they allocate their investment portfolio throughout their lifetime?
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20161222/BLOG09/161229981?template=printart
  • Fidelity: A New Era For Dividend Stocks
    Thanks so much for sharing Ted.. can I ask if you have equal weightings in each?
    @MFO Members; The Linkster believes that dividends are the mother's milk of investing. For what its worth here is a current list of my dividend portfolio, and current yields.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Bonds:
    Navistar 8.25% 11/21 Callable 2017
    Preferred Stocks:
    ALLY-A: 8.125%
    ARI-A: 8.33%
    CIM-A: 8.96%
    DDT: 7.50%
    MLP's:
    BX: 6.13%
    KKR: 3.98%
    Common Stocks:
    CSAL: 9.04%: (Tax free spin-off of WIN)
    CTL: 8.98%
    FTR: 12.28%
    NLY: 11.65%
    NI: 2.96%
    PFE: 3.94%
    T: 4.59%
    VZ: 4.30%
    WIN: 7.62%
  • Barron’s Quiz: Test Your Wall Street Skills
    if you want to win you have to avoid all or most of the obvious answers . To me they are 1b,6c,.7b,.13a
  • Fidelity: A New Era For Dividend Stocks
    @ bee: I paid $5.40 which gave me a yield of 8.1% at the time of purchase. A 11/22/16 Morgan Stanley research report believes that after acquiring VZ subscribers in the Florida the stock should stabilize and has has a price target of $4.20.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Fidelity: A New Era For Dividend Stocks
    @Ted,
    I am a subscriber of FTR. This was as a result of a service vacuum left when AT&T (U-verse) folded in CT.
    I have taken an interest in following this stock when you first mentioned you bought it earlier this year. I have also watched this stock tumble over the last year. At what point, do you as an investor, worry about the dividend being impacted by the company share price? One would have to go back to the 1980's to find a comparative share price to today's $3.42. Also, the dividend trend since 2005 has decreased from .25/share to .10/share.
    How do you, as an investor, deal with what I would call the "sour cream stage" of a stock like FTR? What I mean here is, how does an investor endure a 30% drop in share price (I believe you bought this first at about $5/share)? Seems more like a drying up of the mammary gland (mother's milk) to me.
    Has the stock become an even more incredible buy than it was when you first bought it?
    I will say collecting a dividend does help an investor be patient, but does an extended drop in share price curdle that milk?
    Your thoughts?
  • Fidelity: A New Era For Dividend Stocks
    @MFO Members; The Linkster believes that dividends are the mother's milk of investing. For what its worth here is a current list of my dividend portfolio, and current yields.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Bonds:
    Navistar 8.25% 11/21 Callable 2017
    Preferred Stocks:
    ALLY-A: 8.125%
    ARI-A: 8.33%
    CIM-A: 8.96%
    DDT: 7.50%
    MLP's:
    BX: 6.13%
    KKR: 3.98%
    Common Stocks:
    CSAL: 9.04%: (Tax free spin-off of WIN)
    CTL: 8.98%
    FTR: 12.28%
    NLY: 11.65%
    NI: 2.96%
    PFE: 3.94%
    T: 4.59%
    VZ: 4.30%
    WIN: 7.62%
  • Fidelity: A New Era For Dividend Stocks
    I continue to be a fan of low volatility investing, and the low volatility/high dividend ETF, SPHD, continues to work. This ETF has done reasonably well since the TLT peaked on 7/8/2016, and has outperformed the S&P 500 since its inception.
    CHART
    Kevin
  • Ben Carlson: Investing When It Doesn’t Make Any Sense
    FYI: “If you don’t know when you’re wrong, you certainly don’t know when you’re right.” – Adam Robinson
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/12/investing-when-it-doesnt-make-any-sense/
  • Overrated Fund Families
    No fund site in the 70s, but perhaps starting in the late 80s ( I'm a little weak on the timeline) was misc.invest.funds (later named misc.invest.mutual-funds).
    Not a "site" exactly, more of a feed. But definitely internet (i.e. uucp gateway'd to ARPAnet). FWIW, here's a page with the 1982 newsgroups (scroll to appendix near bottom). No mutual fund group back that far.
  • Overrated Fund Families

    Hank - no offense taken! And yes, the modern Templeton isn't Sir John's, that's for sure. :/
    In their defense, I've held their tax-free FKTIX in my portfolio since (I think) the late '80s, and also think their utility/income funds were pretty good, though I don't own those.
    I'll echo someone's earlier point about Arnott's Research Associates. PAUIX/PAAIX were all the rage and hyped everywhere around the GFC, then (as now) you rarely see them mentioned and only sometimes see RA in the media.

    Points taken about Templeton - I don't necessarily disagree w/the counter-arguments there, although I was referring to the firm and not just a specific fund.

    No disagreement on my part with anything you said. And I'm aware they've had their share of losers - not just a single fund.
    However, if you were investing in funds in the 70s-80s (as I was) when someone said "Templeton",
    Templeton World lept to mind. It was their flagship fund, run by Sir John himself for many years. Don't know how many other funds they had back than, but it would be only a fraction of all the funds now under the Franklin Templeton umbrella. Sometimes bigger isn't better.
    Ahh - Yes the loads too. I think loads were less of an issue for many of us in workplace plans in the 70s and 80s. First, we received group discounts. Second, we didn't have the plethora of no-load funds to choose from that are available today. And third, there wasn't nearly the amount of fund information which we now take for granted (this site being a prime example). Many of us new inexperienced investors were operating in the dark and relied on the advice of an experienced commission-based advisor, even if it did cost us a few pennies on the dollar.
    PS - I'm not aware of a single Internet site devoted to mutual funds in the 1970s when I bought my first shares of TEMWX. :)
  • Overrated Fund Families
    My pick is Matthews Asia. When Andrew Foster left, he took a lot of investment expertise with him. They have had some tough moments since. In Q4 of 2014, they did not pay a dividend on their Asia Dividend Fund (MAPIX). I started to sense things were not going well and pulled my money to go elsewhere.
    I'm gone from Matthews too, but not due to performance.