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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • "Markets have false sense of security"
    It all depends on your time horizon and how much you need the money.
    Big Tech was flat for a decade after the Dot.com boom but that ignore the 45% or more drop initially. Small caps EM etc did much better
    Earnings estimates for SP500 are dropping explaining the lack of breath.
    diversification doesn't help until it is critical
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    @Edmond: "Go to portfoliovizualizer.com. Run a asset comparison from 2000-current. Gold has actually outperformed the S&P."
    Ugh, well that's a great place to start your (cherry-picked) comparison period, right at the start of "The Lost Decade" for stocks!
    Let's go back a bit further, say to 1990, eh?
    https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/020915/has-gold-been-good-investment-over-long-term.asp
    Excerpt:
    From 1990 to 2020, the price of gold increased by around 360%.
    Over the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained 991%.

    Not. Even. Close.
    Then there's the most popular gold ETF on the planet, GLD, that is more than 2x the size of the next most popular gold ETF. How has GLD done since its inception on 11/18/04?
    Growth of $10,000
    GLD: $48,539 +385%
    FXAIX: $69,484 +595%
    Again.
    Not. Even. Close.
    @Edmond: "Have to laugh at the silly objections I sometimes read from the gold-haters."
    Chuckle, chuckle backatcha!.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    Central banks have been buying gold for their reserves more heavily since after the GFC. It may be a small % of their reserves, but that % is rising. Twitter LINK
    image
    Twitter LINK2
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  • "Markets have false sense of security"
    Sure, take out the engine of the world, and things will look different.
    Value has been lagging for about 15 years now.
    But one day.... :-)
    I got one word fer yooz: PLASTICS. ...Ooops, wrong movie.
    I got one word fer yooz--- in line with @rforno's remark: BREADTH.
    A healthier Market would show more breadth of profit, in addition to the crazy-nutso, irrational shot upward in the MAG-7.
    But you most often seem to want to talk past what others have to say; so, carry on.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    OP, as of this writing, gold comprises 5.8% of my financial assets. Most of that is bullion in the form of 1oz Maple Leafs which I self-custody. A lesser portion is in the bullion ETF SGOL, in my IRA. Most of the bullion was acquired in 2000-2003. My investment framework does not consider gold to be an investment, but rather portfolio insurance. We insure our home, our car, our health, and our life. Seems like a no-brainer to insure the portfolio which makes these other assets possible. Unlike those other insurances -- where your premium is paid to an insurance company, gold is still your asset.
    Have to laugh at the silly objections I sometimes read from the gold-haters.
    Go to portfoliovizualizer.com. Run a asset comparison from 2000-current. Gold has actually outperformed the S&P. Its true if you stretch back the time to include the 80s-90's Superbull, the S&P outperforms. But keep in mind, the 'setup' for that 20 year period of outperformance was very cheap equities. We have no such setup for equities here. So the likelihood of a massive outperformance by equities vs gold strikes me as unlikely.
    Some argue 'if you are a good stock trader, why buy gold'. Well, some people seem to inhabit Lake Woebegone, where everyone is 'above average'. I don't live there.Moreover, think back to the great traders of the 1990s. Where are they now? Consider, a lot of people who manage money professionally, are highly overrated, IMO. Consider Bruce Berkowitz (Fairholme). Or more recently, Kathy Woods Retail investors have increasingly moved to indexing because 'trading' is less of an investment strategy, and more of a hobby/recreational activity. Most professionals do not beat their best-fit index over time. Buy an index. And buy some gold.
    I know, I know, Warren Buffet hates gold. You know who likes gold? The Federal Reserve, the BOJ, the ECB, the BOE, the Bank of China, and every other CB. Maybe they are just too dumb to understand that gold is a worthless 'barbarous relic'? More likely, they have an institutional understanding of long-term cycles of what we call 'money', and that gold is, ultimately, the "base money" on which every monetary system is based. Many Asian cultures prominently use gold as a way to store their household wealth. They do this because they know their govts end up ruining their fiat and banking systems. Gold is UNDER-owned bigly in the West, because no living person has experienced what it is like to have a major monetary reset. Maybe we won't experience it -- but taking out some insurance seems prudent to me.
    Bringing it back to a more 'personal' perspective, the bullion which I self-custody is 'private money'. No custodian is telling the govt you have it. No future ex-spouse, can demand a chunk of the asset which she doesn't know about. No future creditor can lay claim to it, unless you volunteer the info.
    My post is long in the tooth. It's late. I'm tired. So I will stop here.
  • Mid-Year MFO Ratings Posted ... New Navigation Bar
    Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site through May, which includes month to date performance through Friday, 5 July.
    The holiday week was a good one for equities! Weeks To Date (through yesterday), QQQ up 21.5% and SPY 17.4.
    The Mid-Year Review is now Wednesday, 10 July, at 11 a.m. Pacific, where we will discuss latest features, including Flows and ETF Benchmarks (a Deveshism). Please join in by registering here.
  • Mid-Year MFO Ratings Posted ... New Navigation Bar
    Word of caution on CD ... Schwab and Fidelity post highest yielding rates on their CD summary table. Unfortunately, nearly all these are callable. Non-callable seems to be about 0.5% lower. Something to consider, especially with ladders.
    I've recommended that they add a row for highest yielding callable and well as non-callable rates; otherwise, it feels gimmicky and misleading. I'm confident they will take my recommendation to heart.
     
    A good description of what I'm seeing from Fed site:
    "Investors often turn to federally insured certificates of deposit, sold by banks or brokers, when stock markets are volatile. Rising interest rates and stock market drops have made CDs more attractive, especially to older investors. But what many investors don't realize - and some stockbrokers apparently aren't adequately disclosing - is that, unlike traditional CDs, with 'callable' CDs only the issuer, and not the investor, can redeem the CD without a substantial penalty. Callable CDs are being marketed via newspaper ads, telephone solicitations and direct mail."
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    05 July show seems not to be available?
    Did they have a show yesterday? I do not recall Comcast giving me the recording. May be Bloomy gave some staff a long weekend.
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    05 July show seems not to be available?
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2024/Q2–July 8, 2024)
    YBB,
    Why bother buying and holding any index of small or mid caps? Tech companies go public these days as near large caps. So, very little growth potential left while in these indices. Seems like loss potential to zero and limited upside for components. The successful components graduate to SPY and the remaining unlimited potential is captured there. Seems like active is the only solution if one is itiching to buy and hold these caps.
    the median cap weight of companies that IPO (not tech specific) over the previous 20 years was around 100 million (adjusted for inflation). 2020/2021 it was 180 million. only 19% of IPO's in 20/21 were over 500 million in market cap.
  • Starting Yields Are Predictive of Bond TR...
    "Dovish may be for rates but not for equities where the action really stunk."
    mmm....the SP500, the most known index in the world, looks pretty good to me, at making "only" 17+% YTD...(https://schrts.co/KgUBfiaZ)
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2024/Q2–July 8, 2024)
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2024/Q2–July 8, 2024)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2024/Q2 and YTD to 6/30/24)
    Pg L2: In comparing the best mutual funds (typically, active) vs the best ETFs (typically, passive, as the active ETFs are still evolving) in categories, the former were ahead (the 1st mentioned). Beware that leading active funds don’t maintain their lead after a few years; and some of these leading active funds are also concentrated. (Picture would change if average or typical mutual funds and ETFs were considered) (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    US Large-Caps GQEPX vs VOO, FDGRX vs QQQ
    US Small-Caps AVALX vs RWJ, HFCGX vs IJR, NEAGX vs XSMO
    Balanced/Hybrids DGIFX vs NTSX, FPURX vs OCIO (an unexciting category for ETFs)
    International GSINX vs IDMO, BISAX vs FYLD, MSMLX vs EEMS
    Bonds LCTRX vs FBND, FAGIX vs FALN (FAGIX may be conservative-allocation due to its equity)
    Pg L6: Funds with exposure to Nvidia/NVDA and/or Eli Lilly/LLY did well, especially large-cap growth – HCMGX / HCMIX, FOCPX, VPMCX / VPMAX, VIGRX / VIGAX; ETFs QQQ, IWY, VUG (some leveraged funds are mentioned also). Other fund categories that did well include India, precious metals, utilities. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    MORE Fund Stories (Part 2)
    FUNDS. SMALL-CAP (SC) R2000/IWM is more cyclical after the June 28 rebalancing as companies such as SMCI have moved out. The Top 5 R2000 stocks are FTAI, INSM, ANF, FN, SFM, accounting for a whopping 1.93%. The Top 5 sectors are healthcare, industrials, financials, tech, consumer cyclicals. If you own R2000/IWM, keep an eye on Fed news. (Better, own SP SC 600 IJR, SPSM)
    SCs are going through a period of profit slump. This notwithstanding that 40% of R2000/IWM are unprofitable. A simple solution is to use better SC index SP SC 600 (IJR, SPSM), or SC-quality DFAS (active).
    INTERVIEW/Q&A. FUNDS. David BARON, BFGFX / BFGIX. He likes large positions in founder-led growth companies that are trading at discount from firm’s intrinsic value estimates, for example, TSLA, SpaceX (private), BIRK, ONON, SPOT, SHOP, H, FIGS, etc. His goal is to double the money in 4-5 years. He thinks that sideline money can support this rally; his upside now is 20-30%, downside 10-15%. Ron BARON (81) founded Baron Capital and now sons David (44) and Michael also work for the firm. Both are involved with multiple funds.
    RETIREMENT. Don’t overstay in “cash” when rates start dropping. Gradually increase maturity – T-Notes, CDs, short/intermediate-term bond funds. Consider buffer funds such as MAXJ – it holds IVV with option collars.
    LINK
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    Lots of politics. 05 July, 2024. Stephanie Flanders on recent and upcoming elections. Keir Starmer will be the only one "with a spring in his step" at upcoming Leaders' Meetings. La Pen will not get a clear majority. The Chevron SCOTUS decision. Great little story at the end involving Peter Jennings.
  • Starting Yields Are Predictive of Bond TR...

    That's what I was thinking
    Next week, rates may go up, and the explanation will not look great. These articles explaining stuff can be generated by AI. Over the years, I have seen a reversal in explanations based on the new markets. I stopped listening to these articles many years ago.
    This is why I follow prices, charts, and trends that tell me in real time a lot more.
    Read (this).
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    @Derf - no, was something that I had thought about for some time, since one of my taxable fund holdings (FESGX) has a position in gold, and I respect them as a conservative value manager.
    Of note, FESGX has gold / gold exposure at ~15% last I checked. I would limit it to 5% or so of portfolio total.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    @Shostakovich, fwiw, I've held IAU since the start of covid in 2020. I've added and subtracted slightly during that time. This year I'm probably at my highest total. I believe it to be a good diversifier. Portfolio Visualizer shows gold to have a low .27 correlation to the S&P 500, SPY, from the start of 2020 to present. That's what I'm looking for. It's made 9.7% annual return during that time frame which isn't too shabby.
    I like it as a diversifier, but it's only been 3-5% of portfolio. I held SLV for a short time, but it was much more volatile for my liking.
  • the July / post-Morningstar issue of MFO is live
    Artisan Partners used to have an Artisan International Small Cap Fund for several years in which it was closed (I believe it was opened in 2001). It was later renamed to the Artisan International Small-Mid Fund in 2018. Originally, Mark Yockey used to be one of the co-managers of the International Small Cap Fund.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935015/000119312518294501/d598864d485apos.htm
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935015/000119312518021833/d513085d485bpos.htm
  • the July / post-Morningstar issue of MFO is live
    Just in passing, we should note that the Artisan International Explorer strategy existed before the fund launched. The strategy initiated in November, 2020. The fund launched in May, 2022. The strategy, as a whole, has over $350 million in assets.
    Mr Zhou was an analyst under Mr Samra for 7 years before leaving to become a portfolio manager for Matthews. He returned to Artisan in 2020 but, I would guess, he returned bearing a non-compete agreement. And so he was able to run private but not public money.
    Since inception, the strategy has returned about 13.7% annually while it's benchmark index has returned just under 8%. It has outperformed in both up and down years with an active share of 99.3%.
    I've spoken with Mr Zhou twice. The first time was in person and I was deeply impressed. The second time was a weird video call with him and his co-manager in a conference room with a robo camera. The danged camera kept pivoting and refocusing. I think it was ceiling mounted. It did not engender a good conversation. Perhaps I should try again.