I am not sure this is a real solution. Why not make it very easy for each employee to have their own retirement plan that would be portable? IRA's fit the bill but they would have to greatly increase the limits on contributions. If employees want a retirement vehicle, they could do it on their own versus waiting for the company. If the employee is not interested, then it doesn't matter? Education on what SS provides and what a personal retirement account could provide is necessary.
I like the portability issue due to the fact that today's workers will have several jobs in their working life. Also, by having your name on the account versus the XYZ company 401k, it promotes ownership of your retirement future.

FYI: The stock market has hit new highs and growth stocks are leading the way. Whatever growth stocks are.
Or value stocks, for that matter. These are two of the most common labels used in investing, and nobody knows what they mean. Which is to say, there are so many descriptions and definitions that consensus can’t coalesce around any one of them. And therein lies the challenge for investors.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/etfs-for-growth-and-value-stocks-can-trip-up-investors-2015-05-29/print

Despite declines for the day and the week, the major averages posted solid gains for the month: Dow +1%, S&P +1.1%, Nasdaq +2.6%.
Treasury prices rose as a weak reading on regional factory activity added fuel to typical month-end demand; the 10-year yield fell 3 bps at 2.10%, the lowest in three weeks
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2552306-stocks-stumble-but-still-positive-for-the-month
Nat Gas big loser for week.
Weekly ETF Gainers / Losers
May 29 2015, 16:17 ET | By: Jignesh Mehta, SA News Editor
Gainers: TLT +1.94%. VXX +1.82%. UUP +0.71%. OIL +0.57%. KBWD +0.39%. Losers: GAZ -14.89%. UNG -9.05%. EWZ -5.73%. KOL -5.39%. FXI -5.03%.
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2552276-weekly-etf-gainers-losers
Monitoring The Trend In Treasury Yields With Moving Averages
By James Picerno | May 29, 2015 at 08:01 am EDT The Capital Spectator
The recent stumble in US economic data raises new questions about the timing of the Fed’s plans for raising interest rates. The earliest forecast for the first round of tightening monetary policy has been pushed up to September, although some analysts say that the turning point for rates will come later, perhaps early next year. Much depends on the incoming data, of course. Meantime, what is the Treasury market telling us? One way to cut through the noise in search of signals is to calculate a series of moving averages on Treasury yields. By that standard, the market’s sending mixed messages these days. The 2-year yield—considered to be the most sensitive spot on the yield curve for rate expectations—is trending up. The 5- and 10-year yields, by contrast, continue to trend lower, although there are some clues that suggest that the slide has run its course in longer-term maturities.
Let’s start with the 2-year Treasury. As the chart shows, there’s a clear upside trend in progress
By contrast, negative momentum continues to prevail in the 5-year market. Although there have been attempts to revive an upside bias, those rallies have come to naught so far
The benchmark 10-year yield tells a similar story. There have been several rallies, but so far the downtrend hasn’t been broken. But perhaps that’s about to change. Note that the 50-day E M A for the 10-year yield ticked above the 100-day E M A in the last two days for the first time in more than a year.
With Charts
http://www.capitalspectator.com/monitoring-the-trend-in-treasury-yields-with-moving-averages/

FYI: Stocks in the U.S. ticked lower, while those in China showed some stabilization after a messy decline on Thursday. A second revision for first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product — a broad measure of economic output — wasn’t as bad as anticipated, showing a decline of 0.7%. Oil prices jumped back above $60 a barrel for the first time in over a week. Next week could be a busy one: on tap are elections in Italy, a rate decisions in Europe, a deadline for Greece’s debt payments and a May jobs report in the U.S.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2015/05/29/etf-market-vital-signs-may-29-as-wind-in-dry-grass/tab/print/

@scott Yellen? Who cares what she has to say? I'm much more interested in what Gina has to say, following (yet another) court defeat to her children re. inheritance and trustee issues!

http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/05/28/rinehart-loses-control-4-billion-family-trust/

FYI: (The Linkster says, stay as far away from these funds as you can, the leverage will kill you !)
Short-term traders were gifted some new power tools this week in the fast-moving biotechnology and energy sectors
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2015/05/29/triple-bull-and-bear-etfs-debut-in-biotech-energy/tab/print/

Geez - Just the "teaser" Ted excerpted is interesting. I'll look forward to the link when it becomes available.
Wish it were available in transcript form - as I find transcripts faster & easier to digest. Also - near the end of the month we run low on the 4G data plan we rely on for connectivity. Videos chew-up a lot of data.

Try Tmobile if you can switch. Tmo has reasonable unlimited plans - I use something like 12-17GB per month.
I used to not have unlimited (you wouldn't be charged by Tmo if you went over the limit, they would just slow your speed down significantly), now I'm spoiled no way I could go back.

Hi Hank, Hi Guys,
Please do not interpret my posting of Jim Stack’s Las Vegas presentations as my ringing endorsement of his advice. It is not. I like his historical research and his reliance on multiple market directional indicators. I don’t necessarily agree with his conclusions. I don’t subscribe to his services,
I posted Stack’s recommendations on MFO for informational purposes. Stack is one of my favorite financial money managers because of his dependence on statistical research, but also because he is a recovering Aerospace engineer. In that regard, we share a common background that demands a heavy commitment to safety factors. That commitment is reflected in his conservative, defensive investment philosophy and strategies.
Stack has enjoyed success as a money manager, but he is a relatively small player in that field with a very limited audience. The chances that his clients would all follow his incremental equity reduction advice is small; the likelihood that a wider audience would act on that advice is remote with the probabilities approaching zero. The fear of a market meltdown as a self-fulfilling Jim Stack prophecy is just not in the cards.
Stack’s track record is a mixed bag. Since he adheres to a defensive policy, he tends to partially reduce equities early. I agree with many MFOers that Gurus are not especially prescient. Remember the CXO Advisory Group’s Guru Rating database. The overall success score was just below 50% with the highest value at the 68% level. That data reinforces my long standing observation that forecasters can’t consistently forecast.
Stack was not evaluated by CXO Advisory. Based on my general assessment of Stack’s methods, I speculate that he would have been slightly above middle of the road in that rating.
I agree that market timing is hazardous duty, especially in the short-term because of emotional investor noise, and amplified when synchronized into a herd reaction. An old cautionary saying about joining the crowd warns that “running with the herd might get you trampled”. That’s wise words,
But I do like to collect and compare Guru predictions. When properly assembled and used (I mentioned the success of a Kalman Filtering approach in earlier submittals), the herd opinions can improve the odds of success.
As an aside, it seems like many investment organizations are now using fund team managers instead of individual superstar managers. DFA and Dodge and Cox serve as excellent mutual fund examples.
Regrettably, nothing is ever perfectly simple in the investment process. Conflicting evidence must always be carefully collected and weighed. That’s one reason why information source diversity is so important. Independent analyses and interpretations are critical. I often wonder just how independent these analyses really are. There appears to be an incestuous relationship among many popular market writers and pundits.
When reading this post, please recognize that I do like Stack and rate him highly along with several other money matter advisors. But these other advisors often offer disparate market opinions. All “experts” are not equal; the value I extract from them is weighted.
The first step before making an investment decision is to gather information from several primary sources. A second step is to sort and evaluate these data without falling victim to data overload.
Avoiding “analysis paralysis” is an issue. I’m sure all MFOers approach this step differently. The decision making process is itself an art. I use a very, very informal form of the Kalman Filtering approach whereby I weight the various inputs with an estimate of their accuracy record. Ben Franklin used a check list and sequentially eliminated elements from each side. Whatever works for you is the best approach.
Thank you all for participating in this thread. I did not anticipate the interest when I reported the scribbling that I made at the MoneyShow conference.
Best Wishes.
Edit: Hank, I too am 81 years old and am still in the market. However my commitment and enthusiasm are both easily overshadowed by the fine folks participating in the MFO exchanges.

@ron
Stay healthy ron!
At 81 I'd be inclined to be 100% out of the markets. On the other hand, am addicted enough to market-watching that probably won't follow my own advice.
Shucks - Any of the regulars here who say they aren't at least "somewhat" addicted are kidding themselves.
---
Max must be catching lots of fish in Canada. Haven't heard from him in awhile.

@bee: I would think the main reason we don't discuss UMBIX much, is the fact that David Williams, the long time manager retired in 2012 I believe. He quietly amassed one of the best records of beating the S + P on a fairly consistent basis for years. I sold it after he retired. I now have his successor's fund SMGIX, who has done a very respectible job with UMBIX and SMGIX. I expect they will eventually merge. It's not easy owning Columbia funds because of all the sales over the years between varying investment firms, msf did an excellent post on its history. For more detail, use the search button for UMBIX.
I also own its tech fund, CMTFX but I think the glory days of Columbia are behind them, although I like these two funds very much.

@hank - +1

Since I am 81, I guess I am closer to dying.

"No assumptions are necessary. Jim Stack is directing his advice to all investors: to you, to me, to MFOers, and to his legion of loyal followers."
---
Wow - If Stack's advice is to be taken seriously would his vision than not become a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Here's why: If all investors decided to ratchet-down their equity exposure by 10-15% based on Stack's forecast, equity valuations would than adjust downwards to reflect the new reality. In fact, they might well over-shoot on the downside.
I haven't learned a thing from this thread. There are hundreds of bright people like Stack whose views are worth reading. We can learn from all of them. None deserve the attention Stack seems to be receiving here. I got a lot more out of JohnC's thread on "bullish" or "bearish" as I was able to identify different types of investors (here at MFO) with the varying outlooks offered - and none of the views were served up as sacrosanct.
There's another issue here which seems to have largely escaped discussion. That's this whole notion of trying to time markets. Yes - Stack is merely advocating "reducing exposure". To me, that's a cute way of saying: try to time markets. And I think that's terrible advice for younger investors attempting to grow a retirement nest egg. For "oldsters" (probably the predominant group on this board) who have already accumulated a nest egg, timing makes a bit more sense from a defensive point of view, but is still a "dicey" (a begrudging nod to Vegas) proposition - the benefits of which are highly dependent upon both the investor's temperament and goals as well as a whole host of unknowns.

So my question is which Large Cap companies have not already been priced today for future growth? Instead of only using Price Earnings ratio PE), one recent wealth tracks interviewee (Tom Russo) suggested evaluating company growth based on a company's ability to increase market share.
I wonder if anyone here own funds where the manager's focus is on companies that dominant market share or are strategically trying to achieve increased market share. Attention to mergers and acquisitions might be one method of increasing market share. A recent merger deal between Broadcom and Avago maybe attempting to increase market share to compete more effectively with companies like Qualcomm and Intel.
The oil and gas industry as well as the commodities sector seem ripe for M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions). Columbia Funds had a fairly successful fund UMBIX that isn't talked about much these days.
Anyway, here's an interesting article on the complexity of cross border mergers:
Avagos-Pending-Broadcom-Purchase-Taps-Arcane-Tax-Structure
I wonder that as QE continues in Japan, Europe and China, will this cheap capital encourage more of these deals, cross border or not.

FYI: A growing number of state legislatures are trying to solve the nation’s retirement savings crisis.
Last week, Washington state became the second state in the nation—after Illinois—to authorize its own state-run retirement savings program for a broad spectrum of companies. The goal: to get small businesses, many of which don’t currently offer retirement savings plans, to deduct contributions from employees’ paychecks and funnel them into individual retirement accounts, where money can grow tax-deferred until retirement.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2015/05/28/states-tackle-americas-retirement-savings-shortfall/tab/print/?mg=blogs-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.wsj.com%2Ftotalreturn%2F2015%2F05%2F28%2Fstates-tackle-americas-retirement-savings-shortfall%2Ftab%2Fprint

FYI: Some investors building equity income portfolios seek out ETFs holding big dividend payers. Others focus on exchange traded funds that consistently grow dividends. But what's more important than high yields or dividend growth?
Regards,
Ted
http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTk0OTU0MTQ=
Enlarged Graphic:
http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=ETPlist_150529.png&docId=754704&xmpSource=&width=428&height=183&caption=&id=754703

FYI: ( I will link repeat program, early tomorrow morning, when it becomes available for free.)
Regards,
Ted
Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
With stocks and bonds more expensive than they have been in 90% of market history even institutional investors are feeling conflicted about where to invest. According to a recent survey of global Chief Investment Officers, they are reluctantly increasing their allocation to stocks in order to get higher returns, even though they are worried about a major market correction. This week, with the permission of State Street Global Advisors, the sponsor of the survey we are sharing the “Walking The Tightrope” survey report with you. It will be available on our website, over the weekend.
It is the beginning of a fund raising season on public television, so this week we are revisiting an interview with Paul McCulley, a Financial Thought Leader, noted
Fed watcher, economist and former short term bond trader.
The reason we chose to highlight McCulley’s interview again is because he makes a strong case for one side of a very important economic debate, the outcome of which will have a huge impact on the markets. McCulley is a proponent of the “secular stagnation” theory being argued by former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers. If they are right, that we are in a period of prolonged economic stagnation, then interest rates should remain near historic lows for several more years and both the stock and bond markets should benefit as a result. If they are wrong, both markets are grossly overvalued and due for a severe correction.
You might recall that for years McCulley was a Senior Partner at bond giant PIMCO. He was a founding member of its Investment Policy Committee, along with firm founder Bill Gross, and author of the influential monthly “Global Central Bank Focus”. During his time at PIMCO, he managed their huge short term trading desk, overseeing an estimated $400 billion dollars in assets.
McCulley retired from PIMCO in 2010 to write, think, speak and otherwise lead a more balanced life, which he did until last year when he was asked to return to his old firm, by his former boss and close friend, Bill Gross. Gross then unexpectedly left the firm a few months later, an experience McCulley will talk about in our exclusive EXTRA feature on our website.
McCulley is known for his understanding of economics, the capital markets and Fed policy. Long before the 2008/2009 financial crisis he identified the powerful and destructive rise of what he called the “Shadow Banking System”, the unregulated institutions fueling the housing and credit bubble. He also coined the phrase “Minsky Moment”, after economist Hyman Minsky’s theory that financial stability, as this country had during the Alan Greenspan era, ultimately leads to financial instability, as people and institutions take on more and more risk.
That is exactly what happened.
In this interview he makes some other startling predictions about Fed policy under Janet Yellen, Mario Draghi’s intentions and the global level of interest rates.
If WEALTHTRACK isn’t showing on your local station due to pledge, you can always watch it on our website, WealthTrack.com over the weekend. As I mentioned you will also find our exclusive online EXTRA interview McCulley about his decision to retire – twice – and how he’s achieved a work/life balance.
Have a great weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and productive one.
Best Regards,
Consuelo

"Not only does it matter, it matters greatly what is our perceived position within any cycle."
I know where my opinion is as to where we are in this cycle, but I also know that, if you view this as seasons, Central Banks seem hell bent to not allow Winter to occur. I own what I own - trying to time this is (I think) an exercise in futility and we're so far down the rabbit hole in terms of monetary policy where this all ends we can only guess. I mean, the Shanghai is down 11% or so in the last couple of days. There's so much, "Oh, see? I told you it was a bubble." Wouldn't surprise me if it's merely a pullback.
Sector rotation, meh - anyone have a fund that does this consistently well?
Beyond that, I just fear that in 2008 you wanted to be in cash and bonds. When this period ends, you will want to not be in cash and bonds.

FYI: Top-performing large-cap funds in the past 10 years have been driven by a combination of growth and value stocks. Since 2013, growth stocks have been the main performance engines.
Regards,
Ted
http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTk0OTUzMjQ=
Enlarged Graphic:
http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WEBlv0528_1K.jpg&docId=754574&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1152&caption=&id=754548