Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Salary deduction/reduction for a young person
    Hi hank,
    Although the purists will shoot me, the 403B is sort of the municipal version of the 401K of the private sector and the 457 at the state level. All forms of deferred compensation, albeit with minor differences (much less today than in the past).
    Hawk has the first question. Is there any employer match they she can capture (e.g. Michigan's DC pension puts in 4% and will match up to 3% more if the employee contributes equaling a total of 10% going in.
    The second question is about investment choices and transparency as to fees.
    Third is trading platform choices.
    Michigan was the cat's ass. I had online brokerage options via the Fido network for both my 401K and my 457 and it cost me $50 a year for each.
    At the other end of the spectrum was wife's original with Ma Bell. 5 choices of 'house' funds without ticker symbols and trading was limited to once a month on the last day of the month. Take it or leave it. teehehe ;-) I still parlayed Iraq I into a sizeable gain buying after the market puked.
    feh, only lemons? anyone got any vodka?
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
  • More on FPACX/Romick
    Thanks @BenWP
    From the Annual Report
    Fund Asset Allocation
    The CV (The Contrarian Value team led by Steve Romick), will decide how much of the Company will be
    invested in equities and fixed income securities, having made
    such asset allocation decisions for more than two decades. The
    amount invested in equities will be relatively similar to the equity
    exposure in the CV Strategy—a derivative of bottom-up equity
    investment decisions. For example, in a sharp market decline,
    the CV team may decide to take advantage of buying opportu-
    nities that may drive a different asset allocation, one more ex-
    posed to equities.
    The AFI team will have responsibility for
    investing the balance in fixed income securities.
    http://www.sourcecapitalinc.com/docs/default-document-library/2015-12_source-capital_annual.pdf?sfvrsn=4
    I wonder if Mr Romick would ever use the leverage that C E F's can use if buying opportunities became extremely compelling ? Wow !
    Also
    As of 4/28/2016
    Share
    Price NAV Premium/Discount
    $37.71 $39.70 -5.01%
    Effective Leverage (USD): $0.000M
    http://www.cefconnect.com/fund/SOR
    From FPACX 1st Q Letter Dated April 27th
    Investing
    Our focus on delivering risk-adjusted returns causes us to follow our own path. This might be
    uncomfortable at times but, as Seth Klarman wrote in a recent Baupost letter, "You don't become a value
    investor for the group hugs."

    We're not going to beat the market (nor meet our stated objective of
    delivering market rates of return with less risk) by investing the same way the market does. For instance,
    we won't ever have the same sector exposures as the market. Sometimes, we'll own a lot of financials -
    like we do now - but sometimes we'll own none. The sum total of this means that our returns, when
    compared to the market over short and intermediate periods, might differ wildly, possibly making us
    appear unusually smart or stupid.
    http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/quarterly-commentaries-crescent-fund/fpa-crescent-q1-2016-commentary_final.pdf?sfvrsn=6
  • Salary deduction/reduction for a young person
    Hi Hawk,
    (Added late): Here's a substantive publication explaining the difference between deduction and reduction. http://www.ofm.wa.gov/policy/25.50.htm. It's been too long since I contributed to a 403B (20 years), but some of the fog is clearing as I read this. A 403B actually represents deferred income. That's why you're able to defer paying taxes on the income. A Roth, by contrast, is funded with current income on which taxes must be paid up front.
    Psychologically, I suspect she may be more apt to stick with a pre-tax workplace plan (like a 403B) - and they're fine long-term investments. As I understand Roths, the after-tax contribution portion can be withdrawn at any time. There's a lot more hoops to jump through with the pre-tax contributions.
    But I really like Roths. Tax free compounding and tax free withdrawals are hard to beat. Tough call. Just be sure that either way she socs the $$ away and leaves it alone during the working years. One caveat with Roths is that it's a pretty generous tax provision and so the law could potentially be altered in the future to where they'll find some way to tax them.
    While there's good arguments on both sides, I'd think that in most cases over very long periods one comes out dollars ahead with the Roth. But it's not a slam-dunk. Too much depends on the tax bracket you're in when contributing and again when you're withdrawing.
    One source which attempts to compare the benefits of Roths vs Traditional plans: http://www.401khelpcenter.com/401k/whitehouse_roth.html#.VyLHAtT3aK0
  • More on FPACX/Romick
    Recent discussions here brought up several reasons members decided to sell or hold FPACX. The large asset base of the MF and its big cash position seemed to push the sellers to their decision. I brought up the matter of Source Capital, the CEF now managed by Romick in concert with two members of the Crescent fund (the Contrarian Value team) and two FPA managers who run the FPA New Income Fund (FPNIX) according to a discipline known as AFI (Absolute Fixed Income). SOR after Romick, et al took over sold so much of the old manager's portfolio that a huge CG distribution was made in February. Now, my point: if an investor wants Romick without the huge asset base and the buckets of cash, SOR fits the bill. Right now, equity represents about 57% of assets, mostly US big caps, but some foreign as well. Cash and treasury notes make up about 11%, with the balance being managed by the AFI guys. AUM are now $337M. Romick's long-term record is exemplary, but the performance of the New Income Fund is really underwhelming. I don't know who has the final say on weighting of equity vs. fixed income. The CEF distributes about 4.5% (not guaranteed) and traded today at about a 5% discount. A long, Romicky discussion of SOR's statement of purpose can be found in the Annual Report (http://www.sourcecapitalinc.com/literature). Not a whole lot new from Romick, but it's as good a statement of what a new fund is supposed to accomplish as I ever see these days.
  • Gravity Kills: 40 ETFs Own Big Slugs Of Apple
    SAN FRANCISCO — Wall Street is running out of superlatives for Facebook....now 6th most valuable in S&P 500
    "Ace Book." "Moving beyond the friend zone." "Liking the execution." Those were three of the research notes published by slack-jawed analysts following Wednesday's Street-beating quarterly results that solidified its position as one of the world's most powerful and top-performing technology companies.
    Facebook far exceeded expectations for nearly every metric, even as other tech companies disappointed, sending shares soaring 11% to an all-time high of $120.79 and giving the company a $30 billion bump to its market cap.
    Facebook is now the sixth most valuable company by market cap in the S&P 500, overtaking Johnson & Johnson.
    Of the 49 analysts covering the stock, 45 rate it a "buy" or higher.
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/04/28/facebook-6th-most-valuable-sp-500/83648484/
    FB touches all-time high Range 116.96 - 120.79
    52 week 72.00 - 120.79 Mkt cap 335.18B now 6th most valuable in S&P 500
    117.54 +8.65 (7.94%)
    Real-time: 2:45PM EDT 4/28/2016
    Thanks @Ted
    QQQ Top Holdings as of 04/27/2016 Top Holdings
    Ticker
    Company
    % of Fund
    AAPL Apple Inc 10.67
    MSFT Microsoft Corp 7.93
    AMZN Amazon.com Inc 5.62
    FB Facebook Inc 4.92
    GOOG Alphabet Inc 4.80
    GOOGL Alphabet Inc 4.15
    INTC Intel Corp 2.95
    CMCSA Comcast Corp 2.93
    CSCO Cisco Systems Inc 2.84
    GILD Gilead Sciences Inc 2.71
    https://www.invesco.com/portal/site/us/investors/etfs/product-detail?productId=QQQ&ticker=QQQ&title=powershares-qqq
    Y T D @ 4/28 Close
    APPL - 9.93 Carl Icahn revealed today that his firm has dumped all of its stake in Apple Inc. (AAPL). After having stabilized earlier today following Wednesday’s steep decline, the iPhone maker’s stock started diving again following Icahn’s comments
    FB +11.53 sixth most valuable company by market cap in the S&P 500
    QQQ -4.96 Over 10 % in AAPL
    SPY +1.74
    Top Holdings
    As of 04/27/2016
    NAME WEIGHT
    Apple Inc. 2.96%
    Microsoft Corporation 2.20%
    Exxon Mobil Corporation 2.01%
    Johnson & Johnson 1.70%
    General Electric Company 1.58%
    Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B
    Facebook Inc. Class A 1.37%
    AT&T Inc. 1.30% 63,586,050
    JPMorgan Chase & Co. 1.29% 3
    Wells Fargo & Company 1.29%
  • Charles Schwab to Cease Selling Load Mutual Funds
    Is Schwab going to stop selling load funds from Franklin Templeton (e.g. TPINX) or Oppenheimer (e.g. OIGAX)? Of course not, even though these are not only load funds, but load classes - if you go to E*Trade, they'll gladly sell you the Templeton fund or the Oppenheimer fund with a load.
    Schwab is only going to stop selling a share class if it can't negotiate a load waiver. This is hardly generosity on Schwab's part. It typically get 40 basis points per year for NTF shares sold, and (admittedly I haven't checked) less for load shares. If you're working with an adviser, the adviser gets the lion's share of the front load, so Schwab comes out on the short end of the stick by selling the funds with a load (as opposed to load-waived).
    Schwab (unlike Fidelity) used to include TF funds as well as NTF funds in its select lists. It stopped that years ago - now it tries to drive investors to its most profitable share classes. I don't see a difference between this and the supposed conflict of interest that advisors have in selling load funds. Except that soon (at least for retirement accounts) advisors will be held to a fiduciary standard that Schwab can avoid.
    Let's look at those load-waived classes. Why would I go to Schwab and buy a 12b-1 laden (dare I say loaded) share class when TGBAX can be purchased elsewhere, albeit with a TF? That higher ER is just skimming money from the fund to pay Schwab for shelf space.
    On general principle, I for one don't see anything positive about being offered less choice. But it makes for great PR, and evokes the predictable hurrahs.
  • What criteria do you use to select Mutual Finds?
    I'm a little late to this discussion, but here goes:
    1. For domestic stocks, use a low-cost index fund/ETF as a core hold. Then, if you want to "explore", search for talented management (team) that runs a fairly concentrated portfolio for a reasonable cost. Another option would be to add a sector fund/ETF or something that does not mimic the index (maybe something like SPHD or something that emphasizes volatility or dividends, for example).
    2. For international stocks, there is a lot more disparity, and indexing is not a clear winner, unless you don't want to take the time to research active funds. Fees may be a bit higher for actively-managed funds here, so pay attention to out-performance net of fees.
    3. For bonds, understand that the past 10 years will not be repeated over the next 10 years. That being the case, fund expenses are even more critical.
    4. If returns, in general, will be lower over the next few years (which some smart people believe), costs take on a bigger part of the screening process.
    5. If you are buying actively-managed funds, remember the most important consideration is who runs the strategy and what their record is. You are not buying an index; you are hiring a manager. Do your homework, and do not skimp on this step.
    6. In taxable accounts, remember the importance of tax efficiency. That means taxable distributions can sometimes be deadly. Use funds that tend to have these in your retirement accounts, where taxation is deferred.
  • Charles Schwab to Cease Selling Load Mutual Funds
    @ Charles & MFO Members: IBD Slant
    “There definitely has been, over the past 15 or so years, a big move away from load shares,” said Scott Cooley, director of policy research for Morningstar Inc. “Fifteen years ago, load funds were more than 40% of mutual fund assets. Now they’re down to 20%. The industry has been growing, but load funds have lost market share.”
    Schwab insisted that the move is a response to dwindling interest by shareholders in paying loads, not a response to a recent Department of Labor (DOL) rule that tightens restrictions on advisor conflicts of interest and requires advisors to disclose how they’re paid.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/charles-schwabs-cutback-on-load-mutual-funds-reinforces-trend/
  • Gravity Kills: 40 ETFs Own Big Slugs Of Apple
    Facebook Will be Uplifting For These Tech E T F's
    Facebook crushes expectations, stock soars
    108.89 +0.13 (0.12%)
    After Hours: 118.78 +9.89 (9.08%)52 week 72.00 - 117.59
    Apr 27, 7:59PM EDT https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:FB&ei=6YQhV8HYIYO2mAGhhZ2IBA
    Facebook reported its Q1 earnings on Wednesday afternoon, beating expectations on the top and bottom lines.
    The stock surged nearly 9% after-hours.
    Here are the most important numbers:
    Earnings per share: $0.77 vs. $0.62 expected.
    Revenue: $5.38 billion vs. $5.25 billion expected, and up 52% year-over-year. Ad revenue is up 57% year-over-year.
    Monthly active users: 1.65 billion vs. 1.62 billion expected.
    Daily active users: 1.09 billion on average for March 2016. This quarter, 66% of
    Facebook's monthly active users (M A U) were daily active users, which is up from 65% during the same period last year.
    http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-q1-2016-earnings-2016-4
    E T F's with concentrated positions
    Weighting
    SOCL Social Media Index E T F Technology Equities 12.34%
    FDN First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund Technology Equities 10.33%
    FPX First Trust US I P O Index Fund All Cap Equities 10.14%
    PNQI PowerShares NASDAQ Internet Portfolio E T F Technology Equities 8.08%
    IYW iShares U.S. Technology E T F Technology Equities 7.44%
    WMW Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Total Return Index E T F All Cap Equities 6.79%
    XLK Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund Technology Equities 6.16%
    IGM iShares North American Tech ETF Technology Equities 6.11%
    VGT Vanguard Information Technology ETF Technology Equities 6.00%
    http://etfdb.com/stock/FB/
    Several Fidelity Funds also own concentrated positions.
    http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-concentrated.html?t=FB&region=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA
  • What criteria do you use to select Mutual Finds?
    @Hank- What an amazing coincidence... my very first car was a "previously owned" '56 Plymouth! My parents didn't have a car, so I had to learn to drive on my own. In 1959 the Coast Guard assigned me to a Loran Station on the lonely Northern CA coast and there was no Greyhound bus service. So I had to buy a car and learn to drive on the then very rugged coastal Hwy 1.
    My learning experience ended the useful service life of most of the Plymouth's fenders. Fortunately, Yellow Cab had used a large fleet of these cars, and SF junkyards had a good supply of yellow fenders. After a couple of years that car was quite a sight... blue and black with three bright yellow fenders. It did have the advantage that other drivers give me a wide margin of clearance.
    I shared your father's experience... on one trip up to the Loran station at Point Arena I was on a back road in the middle of nowhere when the engine lost oil pressure, with the usual ruinous results. Fortunately some kindly folks eventually came along and took me the remainder of the way to Point Arena, in their spiffy Nash sedan.
    image
    1956 Plymouth (Not Mine!)
  • Charles Schwab to Cease Selling Load Mutual Funds
    Gotta love it ... some progress.
    Similarly, Morningstar should stop giving its annual awards to loaded funds.
    c
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/charles-schwab-to-cease-selling-load-mutual-funds-1461749403
  • Gundlach: ‘Start Legging Into’ Treasuries
    FYI: Jeffrey Gundlach, head of DoubleLine Capital, told Reuters on Tuesday that buying Treasuries after the recent sell-off makes sense. In fact, he said he’s buying some.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2016/04/27/gundlach-start-legging-into-treasuries/tab/print/
  • John Waggoner: Oppenheimer, Other Funds Cling To Puerto Rico Municipal Bond Debt As Possible Default
    FYI: As Puerto Rico lurches closer to default on its $72 billion in municipal debt, a few funds still have big chunks of the bonds in their portfolios.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160426/FREE/160429954?template=printart
  • The Closing Bell: Stocks Mixed Ahead Of Apple Earnings, Fed Decision

    Apple took a more than $40 billion hit today after reporting its second-quarter earnings — and it was bleak. Shares of Apple were down more than 8 percent in after-hours trading at one point today.
    Why Apple’s stock fell off a cliff today
    Posted 4 hours ago by Matthew Lynley © 2013-2016 AOL Inc. All rights reserved.
    What all this means
    All this, taken together, represents a huge miss for Apple. This is a company that has shown Wall Street time and time again that it is one of the strongest growth drivers in the world. And now, for the first time in 13 years, Apple is showing that its growth engine is slowing down.
    Wall Street rewards profitability, it rewards companies when they beat expectations. But for massive companies like Apple, growth is everything — and Apple is showing that it just isn’t growing any more for the time being. So all Apple’s new products and search for new innovations for its existing ones all make new sense: people are buying fewer phones, fewer tablets than they used to, and Apple needs to find new ways to continue to grow.
    Slideshow Topics
    Apple amasses an even greater cash pile
    Apple services revenue continues to grow, Apple Music hits 13 million subscribers
    Apple's "other products" also drops quarter-over-quarter
    The Mac fails to deliver
    The iPad shows surprise strength
    Apple once again posts weak guidance numbers
    Greater China drops off a cliff
    Apple's stock tanks
    As a result of all this, Apple shares are down more than 8 percent in extended trading. Investors are punishing the company for showing that it is no longer able to continue to grow at the significant rate (since iPhone intro)
    But iPhone sales are down significantly from the year ago
    The iPhone beats expectations — but only barely
    Apple's revenue drops for the first time in 13 years
    http://techcrunch.com/gallery/everything-you-need-to-know-about-apples-second-quarter-results/slide/1/
  • What criteria do you use to select Mutual Finds?
    I think Morningstar is pretty clear that star ratings are scorecards, while medals are buy recommendations. Neutral and negative seem to be hold and sell recommendations, respectively. So I wouldn't try to map star ratings into buy/sell/hold. An analyst (medal) rating can turn on a dime (e.g. if a manager leaves), while a star rating is unaffected by recent changes.
    "[Star ratings are] strictly a historical, backward-looking measure of risk-adjusted performance. In contrast, the Morningstar Analyst Ratings are are a qualitative, analyst-driven rating based on what we feel investors could expect from a fund's performance going forward"
    http://beta.morningstar.com/videos/591905/What-Are-Morningstar-Medalist-Funds.html
    FWIW, I find the star ratings to be a good roll-up of past performance, while I view the analyst ratings as a beauty contest. M* has what seems to me a well earned reputation of doting too long on certain funds.
    Regarding RPHYX, I think saying that it's been mischaracterized is a bit harsh. It is, if not a unique fund, a very unusual one with no (or few) good peers with which to compare. You can't rate a fund that's in a class by itself, so it winds up in a class with only distantly related funds.
    Great Owls uses Morningstar categories, so it evidences some of the same category distortions. (I like comparing M* and Lipper scoring because Lipper tends to have more focused categories, though its downside is that this can result in small numbers of peer funds.)
  • What criteria do you use to select Mutual Finds?
    @MSF - Understood. So at M* would 3-stars constitute the "hold" opinion / 4&5 the "buy" / and 1&2 the "sell"?
    While we're on the subject, RPHYX seems to be all over the place. MFO puts it in the Great Owl category. M* gives it 3 (hold I presume). Lipper's ratings are scattered by attribute, but generally average around 3. MaxFunds gives it only 60 on a 100 point scale - but than classifies it "fair" That 60 looks to me like maybe Ol Max isn't quite sure whether it's a sell or a hold. (However, that might constitute a 4th opinion.) And Fund Mojo apparently hasn't yet formulated an opinion.
    I've followed the discussions on RPHYX and am aware that much of the divergence of opinion relates to the catagorization (or rather miscategorization) of that fund.
    Added: Can't quite get my head around the idea that there can only be 3 possible opinions expressed about a fund. There's so many things observers can evaluate beyond a simple buy, sell, hold proclamation. Are the fees appropriate? What category does the fund belong in (G&I, Balanced, Moderate Allocation, etc). How flexible are the fiduciary's exchange privileges? What are the best/worst case scenarios under bull/bear market conditions? Seems to me a prudent investor would want to seek out viewpoints on all of these before adding a fund to his portfolio.
  • What criteria do you use to select Mutual Finds?
    @davidmoran
    Looks like we both started investing around 1971 (45 years ago). Mine was a 403B plan with a 4.17% front load invested in TEMWX. A great fund back than. I knew even less of investing than than I know today. But the fund prospered over the 15-20 years I owned it. Probably shouldn't have left Templeton, but a lot of friction developed between the "advisor" and me when I started investing on my own with T. Rowe Price - especially when I transferred some of the $$ out of Templeton on my own. (Pretty sure he was collecting some type of back load).
    While I loath front-loads and the commission-based reps who peddle them, I benefitted greatly from his experience. In particular, I became more acclimated to taking a degree of risk in pursuit of a higher return than what I observe in many first-time investors who don't have the benefit of an advisor. So, the load may have been worth it.
    I don't have time to look up all 7,000+ funds available to U.S. investors at 5 different sites search of that one on which they all disagree. But it's out there somewhere. :)
    Good luck.