AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/19/24 AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/19/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (44.4%, above average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (22.
5%, below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (33.1%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +21.9% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (121+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (36+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil up, gold down, dollar up. Big US stocks: 1-NVDA, 2-MSFT, 3-AAPL. Tech XLK rebalance to require selling billions of AAPL to buy more NVDA. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1522/thread
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens Buying into the S&P 500 seems like buying into megacaps but then adding 300 "smaller" companies for what? Seasoning? Diversification?
Reason: Lots and lots and lots of people buy the SP500. The more people that buy the SP500 the more those companies/SP500 go up. Supply/demand.
Clap hands for Tinkerbell.
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens Any comments on Primecap Core vs Primecap? I am considering adding Primecap Core to complement my current stake in Capital Opportunity fund. Compared to VHCAX, VPCCX leans more toward Large Caps (72% vs 66%) and Value (25% vs 20%), which should make it a good fit for my portfolio.
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens Is there any ... OEF that has decent volume along those lines?
Why should volume of an OEF matter? Perhaps availability matters, but why volume?
Regarding availability, what that seems to be saying is that S&P 500 funds are a poor person's substitute for less widely available funds that track mega caps.
Edit: Ironically enough, there is an ETF that tracks the S&P 100 with ticker OEF.
XLG tracks the S&P Top 50. It has about 40% of the trading volume (in shares) of DIA, though of course a much lower dollar volume.
Sorry. my volume question was related to ETFs. Actually, AUM probably would be more useful data for both types, come to think of it.
And thx for the reminder - I remember OEF now that you mention it, but never heard of XLG...that looks like a good one!
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens Is there any ... OEF that has decent volume along those lines?
Why should volume of an OEF matter? Perhaps availability matters, but why volume?
Regarding availability, what that seems to be saying is that S&P 500 funds are a poor person's substitute for less widely available funds that track mega caps.
Edit: Ironically enough, there is an ETF that tracks the S&P 100 with ticker OEF.
XLG tracks the S&P Top 50. It has about 40% of the trading volume (in shares) of DIA, though of course a much lower dollar volume.
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens Go with the crowd because the crowd makes self-fulfilling decisions? Lots of people buy because prices go up because lots of people buy?
By that reasoning, the S&P
500 (TR) should be outperforming the S&P Top
50 (TR), and yet ...
500 Top
50
YTD 1
5.82% 22.62%
1yr 26.33% 34.10%
3yr 11.33% 14.84% (annualized)
5yr 1
5.3
5% 18.7
5% (annualized)
10yr 12.93% 1
5.11% (annualized)
All figures through June 18, 2024. The last (10yr) is a hypothetical number provided by S&P Global, since the launch date of the Top
50 index was Nov 30, 201
5.
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500-top-50/?currency=USD&returntype=T-#overview
Yes but how many people invest in the Top
50-ish? Is there any ETF or OEF that has decent volume along those lines? I haven't looked, but I doubt it. (BBLU maybe?) Ergo pretty much everyone buys the index b/c that's what their retirement plans offer.
(I prefer more concentrated funds myself, fwiw saying.)
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens Go with the crowd because the crowd makes self-fulfilling decisions? Lots of people buy because prices go up because lots of people buy?
By that reasoning, the S&P
500 (TR) should be outperforming the S&P Top
50 (TR), and yet ...
500 Top
50
YTD 1
5.82% 22.62%
1yr 26.33% 34.10%
3yr 11.33% 14.84% (annualized)
5yr 1
5.3
5% 18.7
5% (annualized)
10yr 12.93% 1
5.11% (annualized)
All figures through June 18, 2024. The last (10yr) is a hypothetical number provided by S&P Global, since the launch date of the Top
50 index was Nov 30, 201
5.
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500-top-50/?currency=USD&returntype=T-#overview
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens Buying into the S&P 500 seems like buying into megacaps but then adding 300 "smaller" companies for what? Seasoning? Diversification?
Reason: Lots and lots and lots of people buy the SP
500. The more people that buy the SP
500 the more those companies/SP
500 go up. Supply/demand.
MRFOX BB "Concentrated funds are OK as long as the managers are not averse to portfolio turnover."
Low/high turnover and/or Concentrated/non-Concentrated funds don't guarantee better performance or better risk-adjusted performance.
Concentrated portfolio + low turnover can be terrible if the fund owns bad holdings.
FAIRX has low turnover, high Concentration + poor 3-year performance. It took me 5 hours of research...not, only 2 minutes.
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens For me FCNTX had become for all intent and purpose an S&P 500 clone albeit with active management and a higher ER. It currently has 315 holdings. Also I'm not sure how much longer Danoff will remain in charge.
As for BIAWX I invested initially because of the management team, a concentrated focus (currently 33 holdings) and the ESG theme of the fund. To each their own, you do you.