I suspect 1600 is a likely bottom. But why worry? Our fund managers will protect our funds. (They will, won't they?).

15th attempt today to answer. Bugs I guess ...
Can't even remember what brilliant thought I wanted to share this morning.
NO. I don't think it's a repeat of '08. But if "Bill" shows up again (or someone like him) I might change my mind. :)

I just checked on the website for Longleaf Partners and as of Dec 31st Cheasapeke Energy was a 5 percent holding, and they were showing a big prior loss in that stock. I noticed Wynn was a 7 1/2 percent position. I'll bet that's working out for them--not. I've become really skeptical towards focused funds. For that matter, I'm starting to question the reliability of most actively managed funds.

Junkster:
"This last bull was not typical and ran for a lot longer than 44 months and hence this bear will last longer and run further than 14 months."
And there's the rub.
Here is a link to a 10-year chart of the S&P 500:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC+Interactive#{"range":"10y","allowChartStacking":true}
Glancing at this chart two things are obvious:
1. The long-term bull market trend line starting from March 2009 to late 2015 has been decisively broken to the downside. Once broken, it does not easily regain its footing and cross back above it quickly.
2. We have a LONG way to go to the downside.
From trough of 666 on March 9, 2009 to peak of 2134 on May 20, 2015, this represents
a 220% gain in the S&P 500 index over a six-year period. A bear market correction will not end at 1820, 1810, 1780, etc., levels that the talking heads are fixated on. These levels are potentials to play a short sharp oversold bounce in a continuing downtrend. Frankly, I am not smart enough, nimble enough or unemotional enough to play these.
Simple Fibonnacci retracement levels (38% and 50% ) of the total 6-year bull market gain from the high of S&P 2130 are 1575 and 1400 respectively. That is where I think we are heading sometime between now and March/April 2017 and THAT is the fat pitch I am waiting to swing at.

The small sliver of stocks which was powering the market the latter part of 2015 is now getting crushed....which may indicate this correction may be coming to a close. When everything gets pummeled indiscriminately, that is (oddly) a good sign.
It's been so long, we tend to forget what a correction feels like.
press

@Lawlar...
Yes, I know.
Here, adding to Junkster's comments today about market seemingly headed to bear territory, as of month ending January, many U.S. Equity sectors are already down 20% or more. See the MAXDD numbers in past year performance data below (btw ... a plus sign on the Recovery metric, which represents months of drawdown, means the drawdown continues) :

Many others down more than 10%, into so=called correction territory...

And those few sectors sparred (below) seem to be headed south in February.

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
Bloomberg Slant:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-07/japan-stocks-to-drop-on-yen-china-reserves-fall-99-5-billion
Reuters Slant:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKCN0VH119
MarketWatch Slant:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-drop-200-points-setting-wall-street-up-for-an-ugly-start-2016-02-08/print
USA Today Slant;
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/02/08/stocks-dow-monday/79996150/#
IBD Slant:
http://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/facebook-tesla-lead-broad-market-sell-off-but-apple-stages-upside-reversal/
WSJ Markets At A Glance:
http://markets.wsj.com/us
Sector Tracker:
http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
Current Futures:
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

Small value funds require a lot more patience and the willingness to double down when value is out of favor. Most of the gains made in the last 10 years for small value happened in 2003 and 2013. Maybe it's better to be in a massive small cap index fund which is a lot less likely to liquidate. I'm still plugging money in WSCVX, though.

If you are making a case for The Great Depression (1929 to 1939) Part Deux, I disagree. I see this as "just another bear market" - one that will (typically) last between 18 to 24 months, one that began in May/June 2015 in which we are now about 9 months into. We are in agreement that the markets will grind lower but we differ with regard to duration. I see another 9 to 15 months whereas you seem to be saying that we have many years remaining.

Technically, it will look more like what you are saying because you are looking at it from a stocks point of view. The new reality will be lower stock growth rates BUT people look at things relatively. In the past if 8% looked good, now 5% will look good.
I am looking at it from a macro point of view. That will overshadow the stock environment. Profits will be harder to grow in most areas. Fewer individuals will have $ to put into stocks.
This is not a depression, not stagflation, just stagnation.

DlphcOracl you have been as spot-on as anyone here so far. For purely selfish reasons I hope your prescient analysis continues unabated. The more blood in the streets the better where no one wants to ever buy again. One place I differ is the duration of the bear. In my 600 worthless trading/investing books (now culled to around 300) it was said the typical bear lasts around 10 to 11 months. Remember, we have had a lot more bear markets than just 2008/early 09 and 73/74. Here's something I dug up from google Over the past 66 years, there have been 13 bear markets, lasting an average of 14 months and declining a total of 24.6% before recovering. By contrast, the 14 bull markets since 1949 have lasted roughly 44 months on balance, each growing an average of 117.3%.
Regardless kudos to you and remain flexible and open to changing conditions to your scenario. Price always leads us out of the bear as the bearish data is at its peak months and months after the bottom. For instance, junk bonds bottomed in December 2008 and that was many months before the actual default rate topped.
Edit: Before you respond I can almost read your answer. i.e this last bull was not typical and ran for a lot longer than 44 months and hence this bear will also last longer and run further than 14 months. I am sure many wouldn't disagree with you on that.

I did buy today, just adding a bit more to existing position in NXPI and exchanged about half of MMUIX into existing position in FRUAX. MMUIX does outshine in good times, but with its 15% holdings in energy, is not the ballast I intended it to be.

If you are making a case for The Great Depression (1929 to 1939) Part Deux, I disagree. I see this as "just another bear market" - one that will (typically) last between 18 to 24 months, one that began in May/June 2015 in which we are now about 9 months into. We are in agreement that the markets will grind lower but we differ with regard to duration. I see another 9 to 15 months whereas you seem to be saying that we have many years remaining.

I don't know any more than anyone else but I DO think this will be similar to 2008.
1. The commodities price collapse will cause whole nations to become insolvent along with half of the energy industry;

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916006/000119312516453235/d125121d497.htm
497 1 d125121d497.htm BRIDGEWAY FUNDS INC.
Bridgeway Funds, Inc.
Large-Cap Growth Fund (BRLGX)
Supplement dated February 8, 2016 to the Prospectus
and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) dated October 31, 2015
At a special meeting of the shareholders of the Large-Cap Growth Fund (the “Bridgeway Fund”), a series of Bridgeway Funds, Inc. (the “Company”), held on January 15, 2016, the shareholders approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization and Termination (the “Plan”) between the Company, on behalf of the Bridgeway Fund, and American Beacon Funds (the “Trust”), on behalf of the American Beacon Bridgeway Large Cap Growth Fund (the “New Fund”), a newly created series of the Trust. The Plan provides for the Bridgeway Fund to transfer all of its assets to the New Fund in exchange for Institutional Class shares of the New Fund, which would be distributed pro rata by the Bridgeway Fund to the holders of its shares in complete liquidation of the Bridgeway Fund, and the assumption by the New Fund of all the liabilities of the Bridgeway Fund (the “Bridgeway Fund Reorganization”). The Bridgeway Fund Reorganization closed on February 5, 2016. Accordingly, all references to the Large-Cap Growth Fund are hereby deleted from the Company’s Prospectus and SAI.
Please retain this supplement for future reference.

That sure is the consensus. We hear it all the time from the talking heads that no way is this going to be a 2008ish market. Other than of course from the usual suspects in perma bearland who think another 2008 and 1973/74 is always around the corner. Anyone here think we could be in for another 2008? I don't because my bias and conditioning is that events like 2008 and 73/74 are generational occurrences. But who knows.
Idle thoughts - GILD and CELG are getting a nice bid today amid another woeful day for biotech due to a nice write up in Barron's. Will they be the leaders on the next rally? JNJ hanging tight too. I wish there was more fear in the markets instead of the don't worry be happy I am seeing. Whoever thought the 10 year Treasury would be below 1.80% this year? As for the another 2008, Black Swans can't be seen ahead of time (or can they) So not sure if we do have another 2008 it would be because of the effects of oil ala defaults in high yield/banks etc. Would it be from the fear of who is elected President later this year? From a contrarian point of view (where we don't get close to another 2008) maybe what we need are more mainstream analysts and investors coming over to the opinion that yes, another 2008 is upon us. Or maybe just more fear ala the VIX over 40 for a few days.
Sorry for the philosophical ramblings about nothing.

Small cap value is a misunderstood stock universe and many investors shy away from it in favor of popular large cap universe or / 60 / 40 balanced fund affairs.
Swedroe's work is important as it presents returns data via evidence based vs. anecdotal analysis.
I promote the small cap value universe to "young" demographic investors as they have time on their side for compounding of assets https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1pQuBfbPd18ca0G-KiZc5FIWNMx0pNa87INgsLjEwuzY/edit?usp=sharing.
A tactical asset allocation process applied to SCV has produced further risk managed alpha premium. https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1C37CJypoxHWHB09e3g25ewOGjP83wDZhj5j6tlrLJoA/edit?usp=sharing

FYI: How helpful are mutual-fund rankings from research firms such as Morningstar Inc. and S&P Capital IQ? New evidence suggests that for many investors, the answer may be “not very.”
Regards,
Ted
http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-fund-ratings-could-be-misleading-1454900921

FYI: The unconstrained bond fund strategy wasn't born from the 2008 financial crisis, but the crisis and the unprecedented Federal Reserve policy that followed did play a major role in drawing attention to unconstrained bond funds.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160207/FREE/302079991?template=printart
M*: Unconstrained Bond Fund Returns:
http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/nontraditional-bond/$FOCA$NT.aspx

FYI: How are these funds performing? At first blush, not that badly.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160207/FREE/302079999?template=printart
M*: Multialternative Fund Returns:
http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/multialternative/$FOCA$GY.aspx

FYI: As the director of research for The BAM Alliance—a community of about 140 like-minded RIA firms who believe in providing a fiduciary standard of care using an evidence-based investment strategy—I often get requests from other advisors for my help in answering questions from clients about articles they’ve read in the financial media.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-small-caps-still-outperforming?nopaging=1