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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • $100k to Invest
    "I have to" ,
    I hate that...taxes and Death mostly..and sometimes what my Wife "suggests"
    other than that..never
    OH you mean Mutual fund investing? try Vanguard & TR price " the best they offer" hard to lose money that way, turn $100,000 to $200,000... in 10yrs +/-
  • Jeffery Gundlach's Surprising Forecast
    Gotta respect His opinion (bummer), He's BEEN right too many Times, but I tend to lump all doomsayers in same hat, sooner or later they will be right....but they are wrong MOST of the time, and no backlash, they keep pitching and losing
    not ME; I'm going with "making money in 2015" ( Jeff will too) if adjustments necessary? a minor inconvenience...
  • GMOM
    No worries.
    I reached out to the source and here is response from Meb:
    From: Mebane Faber
    Date: Sun, Jan 4, 2015 at 8:09 PM
    Subject: Re: GMOM Question
    To: Charles
    Just GAA is 0%, rest of ETFs are around 59 to 69 bps...and hopefully declining over time!
  • Rick Ferri: My Expected Investment Changes In 2015
    Refreshingly common and simple commentary from Mr. Ferri with this section in particular; and that he expressed that he guessed right:
    "I talked about over-allocating to the US during several recorded Portfolio Solutions client conference calls in 2009 and 2010. At the time, I believed the US would lead the rest of the world out of the global financial crisis, and I guessed right. Now I’m planning a move toward a neutral global mix. I believe the opportunities outside the US are at least as good as inside, and I’ll probably be adjusting my portfolio in the next year to reflect this belief."
  • GMOM
    Charles I got that from you. Read my 10:15 AM post. This was taken directly from the MFO, Nov. fund discussion. If it's not true than you miss-reported. However I think I've seen that reported elsewhere as well.
  • Qn re: Portfolio of Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility Fund - VMVFX
    That's an interesting comparison. I like it. Tweedy, Browne does come to mind as offering hedged funds, value oriented. One difference is that TB is overpriced, while Vanguard might even be called "underpriced". And the VG fund is more of a midcap.
    What came to my mind was MQIFX. Also from a value-oriented shop that tends to hedge currency. A bit lower market cap (closer to VMVFX), a lot cheaper, and closer to VMVFX in turnover (i.e. higher than TWEBX, not a good thing, but perhaps a closer match).
    I can't speak to the volatility of its individual holdings, but as a whole, MQIFX' portfolio has pretty low volatility. Aside from the numbers, M* writes that it "employ[s] Mutual Series' house style, which is designed to preserve capital and minimize volatility."
    I ran an intersection between MQIFX and VMVFX - the only overlap was tobacco, both Altria and BAT. Wonder what to make of that. In contrast, the only overlap between TWEBX and VMVFX are BAT and J&J. Perhaps a tad more "healthy".
    All three funds tracked together for the first half of 2014, and the two comps tracked lower together in the 2nd half, while Vanguard continued to rise.
  • $100k to Invest
    Hi alaska.
    Couple more questions...
    What's your risk tolerance? On a scale 1 to 5. 1 being Very Conservative, hate seeing even slight temporary pull backs. To, 5 being Very Aggressive, which means you're ok with 50-60% drawdowns as long is there is no permanent loss of capital ... and any decline will recover over say 4-6 years.
    What's your investment time horizon? 1, 3, 5, 10, or 20 years?
    Of the two, the former is probably most important. So, be as sure as humanly possible in your self assessment.
    c
  • Has anyone investigated the Matthew 25 fund MXXVX ?
    Am also trying to add to my small and micro-cap. Am particularly fond of WEMMX and BCSIX. May buy IWC (micro-cap ETF) instead.
    For what its worth, micro caps are one area it possibly pays to go active. Because of liquidity, issues most passive funds trail their benchmark, iirc. Essentially indices have problems rebalancing in thinly traded markets because the required trades move the markets so much. You end up losing the benefit of the liquidity premium, which is what you want from micro caps to begin with.
  • $100k to Invest
    I have to reinvest $100k. Any ideas to spread out for say 3 or 4 fund?
  • Anybody Own Any Funds That Bettered the S&P 500 Index?
    Many of the older funds on the long list above had brutal 08-09 dips; the rest are way too new to evaluate, really. Now will try to analyze '14 dip performance.
  • GMOM
    Right, I don't think anything has changed...
    image
    Am I missing something?
  • GMOM
    Charles November 2014 in Fund Discussions
    GTAA ETF to be dissolved at AdvisorShares, Cambria plans relaunch of strategy as GMOM ETF
    Honestly, think this is good news...
    Letter yesterday:
    Cambria Investment Management, LP and AdvisorShares issued notice today that the two parties plan on separating, and Cambria will move on from sub-advising the Cambria Global Tactical EtF (GTAA) pending board and shareholder approval.
    Cambria, as a fiduciary, is committed to offering the best possible investment portfolios to our investors. Cambria will be launching the successor to GTAA, the Cambria Global Momentum EtF (GMOM), at a management fee of 0.59% in the coming months. GMOM is currently subject to an effective registration statement, and we are finalizing the terms of the listing with the NYSE and the SEC.
    Cambria has been managing global tactical portfolios since 2007, and together with GMOM we will continue to manage these strategies in separate accounts and private funds.
    Cambria has launched three EtFs under our own sponsorship, including the Cambria Shareholder Yield EtF (SYLD), the Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield EtF (FYLD), and the Cambria Global Value EtF (GVAL).
  • ARIVX: anyone still own it
    Believe it or not, ARIVX remains a top quintile performer, life time.
    Basically, it had a strong first year in 2011. But it's spent time in the barrel ever since.
    The hefty 1.47%, which goes to pay RiverRoad, Aston, and now AMG among others, while holding nearly 80% in zero interest cash remains a drag.
    The on-going bull market is casting a lot of defensive money manager in tough light. Mr. Cinnamond is in good company, if that helps any.
    Numbers through November...
    image
  • Jeffery Gundlach's Surprising Forecast
    He's a kick.
    Will tune in as well to his market outlook briefing on 13 Jan.
  • Anybody Own Any Funds That Bettered the S&P 500 Index?
    Four Healthcare Funds
    3-FIDO-1-JANUS.....enough said.
    GASFX - been selling into strength all year; have small position left (great move dumbass!)
    GLFOX - shout out to Scott.....great call! must talk with and listen more to you.
    PRBLX
    LCPAX - the one I'm most proud of....who would've thunk it?!
    God bless!
    the Pudd
  • ARIVX: anyone still own it
    with respect to "cash" or "cash equivalents" or "short-term instruments" definition... it usually includes physical cash or treasury bills (treasury securities with maturities under 12 months). all 1+ year treasuries are called treasury notes and belong to the "bond" class, not cash.
  • REITS (VGSIX) as a portfolio diversifier
    VGSIX quietly had a stellar year (up 30%). It has annualized a 8.4% return over the last 10 years. It was out paced by US Small Cap and US Mid Cap sectors by just 1 % over the last decade. US Mid caps exhibited the lowest volatility of the three. Its the volatility that I wanted to address with this thread that ultimately might lead to help creating an inflation beating portfolio.
    Volatility has been one the REIT sector's Achilles heal. I am trying to pair other investments that provides a blended performance that helps lowers year to year volatility. Over the last decade TIPs would have been one pairing option. Going forward their will be more and more investor focus on their attempts to stay ahead of inflation. I believe the two sectors (REITs and TIPs) paired together will provide a better inflation beating performance than owning just TIPs alone.
    Here's how the last decade looked.
    Three portfolios:
    100% VGSIX (Blue Line)
    100% TIP (Yellow Line)
    A combination of the two, 50% VGSIX & 50% TIP (Orange Line)
    image
  • ARIVX: anyone still own it
    I'm still hanging on to ARIVX --- who am I to second guess Cinnamond (or his proteges at ICMAX - both about 75% cash)? At least not yet.
    Regarding PVFIX (Pinnacle Value) I think that part of its performance has been helped by being so micro-cap oriented. The geometric av. market cap for Pinnacle is only $250m. (ARTVX is $1174 and ARIVX is $1181).
    For reference, the micro cap ETF IWC has a market cap of $403 and , one of my favorites, WEMMX (Teton Westwood Mighty Mites AAA) is $483.
  • A Favorite Performance Chart
    Yes but some will attempt to guess the next hot sector by over investing in it. They will probably be wrong as well.
    I think therein lies the problem with Callan Table. It's something of an apples to oranges comparison with asset classes that have varying expected returns over lengthy periods of time. It looks like noise close up, but fades into banded probabilities through time.
    If you're trying to guess whether small cap frontier market growth equities are going to outperform the Barclay's in 2015, that's anyone's guess. Over time, however...