FYI::
Regards,
Ted
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000339821

FYI: In the announcement of US potentially normalizing relations with Cuba, the $33 million dollar closed end fund “Herzfield Caribbean Basin” — stock symbol CUBA — popped 40%:.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/12/cuba-herzfield-caribbean-basin/print/
M* Snapshot Of CUBA: http://cef.morningstar.com/quote?t=CUBA
CEF Connect Snapshot Of CUBA: http://www.cefconnect.com/Details/SummaryPrint.aspx?Ticker=CUBA

You're worried about a fund being 30% in healthcare, I'm concerned that I still don't have enough of things that are 100% healthcare.

A BlackSwan event is one that was not anticipated, something that happened 'out of the blue' which no one would have expected. That is how I define it. In many instances they are geo-political events that cause economic events. Those economic events might have happened anyway, but the geo-political event(s) made it a reality.
2007-08 was not a BlackSwan event as such, since the primary causes were financial in nature - mortgage mess, financial leverage, etc.
2001-02 certainly had a portion that was BlackSwan...the terrorist attacks in the U.S., which may have precipitated an already high-priced stock market and other economic issues.
Others may have different definitions of BlackSwan events. But by definition, if a certain geo-political event is in the news and already occurring or about to occur, it is not BlackSwan.

The fund is one of many fund that address some investors' religious convictions, just as other funds (all part of the greater-SRI universe) target environment, women's issues, renewable energy, sustainable businesses, worker rights, weapons, tobacco, and other individually-held criteria for investing. We have created a matrix of about 150 SRI funds and grouped them according to their target investors and their screens. There a more and more investors who are interested in SRI (Socially Responsible Investing), but there are a lot of different kinds of SRI funds, and the screens used by even those in similar groups can be widely different. This could easily be another discussion topic by itself.

I would expect a short junk bond etf to be at least in positive territory today.

That's one day, during which junk had a minor rally and then fell back, and the short fund didn't follow late in the day. I don't think there is an investment vehicle for us plebes that's exactly inverse, minute for minute, day for day.
The 3-month total returns - roughly matching the steeper phase of this downtrend - are -5% for HYG, -6% JNK, and +4% for SJB. I get that tracking isn't perfect for some periods, but the expected relationship does generally work.
P.S. The junk spread to T's now is higher than it's been since December '12.

@Ted, thanks. I read Mr. Ritholtz's site related notes (various authors), as time allows.
Of note in this write is (I selected particular portions):
"The Transportation sector benefits from lower energy prices in a different way. The obvious benefit is lower fuel costs. Air and rail travel, truck transport, and other means of US transportation also benefit when the US economy picks up. In 2015, the US economy is going to get a boost from low energy prices.
Offsetting that hit is the positive impact the lower oil price will have on the US economy. We think about it like this. Everything that originates with oil is cheaper now. All of the derivative products that come from oil are cheaper. Every household budget is improved by the drop in the cost of fuel. Various estimates of the positive impact that lower energy prices will have on the US economy are centered at about $450 billion."
>>>My take is only the direct reduction of gasoline prices will have an impact upon the consumer. Companies that benefit from all things related to lower energy costs will not pass those savings to the consumer. Why would or should they?
"If we are close to right, and if these estimates are within a 20% to 30% margin of error, 2015 will deliver accelerating growth in the US. We will enjoy continuing low interest rates as the Fed gradually normalizes policy. Low inflation lends additional confidence to the forecast, because energy price pressures are removed. The US stock market is likely to reflect these trends."
>>>Overall, yes. U.S. centric will likely remain to have the most potential for reduced risk returns relative to global otherwise.
:) Per MFO: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it. :)
So, tis all IMO.
Take care,
Catch

FYI: As we approach 2015, two standout sectors remain overweight in our US ETF (exchange-traded fund) portfolios. They are the Utilities and the Transportation sectors. Both sectors are largely domestic American businesses. (Most of the companies in the ETFs that we select are not dependent on currency exchange rates to either beef up or reduce their earnings.) Both sectors focus on the pace of the US economic recovery. Each sector has limited (but some) exposure to the geopolitically troubled regions of the world. Each sector is helped by persistently low US oil prices.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/12/two-sectors-two-observations/print/

At today's close, we are about 1% below the S&P 500 100EMA, and the current Fear & Greed Index is a bullish 18 ("Extreme Fear"). Right here, right now, I expect a move higher in domestic equities and currency-hedged foreign equities (DBEF, HEDJ).
Kevin

@lord_nelson
Looking at the expense ratios, returns and risk parameters (standard deviations/sharpe ratios/sortino ratios), I would rank the currently open HC funds in the following order: PRHSX, JAGLX and ETAGX. Of these funds, JAGLX has the highest foreign exposure (21%). We currently own a 10% position in PRHSX.
And I agree with LLJB regarding POAGX, which represents 10% of our portfolio. Although POAGX is closed to new investors, Primecap has two other attractive open funds, POGRX and POSKX.
Kevin

We want the highest confidence statistical outcomes via a large data sample on our side as we can have so as to develop a "gist" of what the year will look like historically and have emotional preparedness, if necessary.
Component 3 of our model identifies the risk profile for the year during the 3rd week of Januarys. https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/18kMFJrq_F384HhHUS-lU1C8ec4NdmmjkCrCsye_shE8/edit?usp=sharing
You can see from the slides that the preponderance of steep decline years occurred in the high risk profile years, a couple in the neutral profile years, and a one in the Favorable "invested first half" profile. 2014 is shaping up with an above average performance in the context of having been a neutral risk profile year.
The rest of components for model are here: http://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2013/08/29/market-map-basic-version/
In terms of economic validation, the economic conditions index can alert us of drastic economic slowing and affect on stock prices ( we only use this as a confirmation of the model as the data sample is not robust enough, although it has done a good job none the less )
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1IqXuggnKY7fDH-i_96uMIOlmhzS7ei-dreUZ_8dpatc/edit?usp=sharing
We'll see the results of component 3's calculation for 2015 during January

Happy holidays MFOs;
Is another black-swan or turmoil like event coming soon in 2015?

When was the last one?

Most people consider the 07/08 credit crisis a black swan event.

Happy holidays MFOs;
Is another black-swan or turmoil like event coming soon in 2015?

When was the last one?

Happy holidays MFOs;
Is another black-swan or turmoil like event coming soon in 2015? Any thoughts how to play this market?
I am still 80/20 but still have many yrs left. thinking about buying more oil
Merry xmas/happy new yr

At least SJB tracks better than RYILX and AFBIX. I think this is something like the third time in the past 25 years Rydex (RYILX) has tried an inverse junk bond fund and all with terrible results. As for AFBIX the worst of the worst as an inverse junk fund. 2008 alone was a disaster when it was suppose to shine. I am biased against junk bond ETFs including munis, so I wouldn't touch them with a 10 ft pole - JNK, HYG, HYD. I am also biased against shorting (anything) so shorting junk is never on my radar screen. Had I shorted every time I was bearish over the years (equities or bonds) I would probably now be a pauper begging for coins with a tin cup.
I'm worried about the junk munis wondering if I should rotate some to investment munis. But will let price dictate my actions not my mood.

I failed to get our subway tickets stamped before getting on the train in Vienna last fall. Two goons from a really bad WWII movie asked my wife and me to step off at the next station, whereupon I was shown the fine print and forced to pay a fine of 103 Euros. They reminded us that the fine could have been double, but that they were being reasonable by fining only one passenger. I wouldn't make the same mistake if I ever go back to enjoy the hospitality.

Andy,
At the time of writing this post, SJB is down -0.14% and JNK is down -0.65%.
That is a pretty big tracking discrepancy for two highly liquid ETF's, IMO.
I would expect a short junk bond etf to be at least in positive territory today.

Hi @JohnChisum
Fido indicates a - 2.6% for "life" of the fund through 12-15-14.
Fidelity view
Take care,
Catch

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ex-goldman-trader-correctly-shorted-152002886.html
To update the above. As of Friday, the average junk bond fund per Morningstar was negative 0.24%. The Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index was positive 0.84%. Today's negative price action just adds to the junk bond woes. We better not hope this is a reverse of 2008/09 where junk bonds led stocks with junk bottoming in mid December and stocks early March. It's been completely different in junk munis which have been making YTD highs this month (until today in some of the funds) I am 89% in junk munis but they are on a tight rein.

Junkster, in a recent post you mentioned that junk bond funds might be setting up for a buy in the next few months. How will you judge when this buying opportunity arrives?

Gross knows fixed income and seems bright enough. Problem is sorting out the useful info he gives you from his attempts to move markets in one direction or another for the benefit his own investment agenda. So take everything from him with a big grain of salt.
His argument, which I heard on Bloomberg, makes sense on the surface. TIPS, by his math, are currently only pricing in around 1.5% inflation going forward. By the Fed's own pronouncements, they have a target of at least 2% inflation. So, Gross sees TIPS as undervalued relative to a 2+% or higher rate of inflation.
His statement that the Fed can always "print more money" to meet or exceed that inflation target is a bit suspect. Yes, but --- He's not factoring in the political pressures that could arise and thwart any Fed efforts in that direction. The 2016 Pres election will be huge. Still, I like Gross's argument. TIPS are probably a better alternative to plain old cash at this time.
I don't know anything about Mr. Gundlach. "Losers" probably isn't a term my fund managers at T. Rowe Price, Dodge & Cox or Oakmark would toss around. Nor would they attempt to confront or demean their competition at other firms. Has nothing to do with the rightness or wrongness of Mr. G's case. But possibly lacking decorum.
BTW: Where's Fundalarm? Really understands this stuff.