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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    Interesting Bloomberg Article (here)
    image
    Is anyone else surprised by how little ipads contribute to Apple’s bottom line? I sure was. 99% of my internet access is on ipads. I own 2 newer models, a larger ipad “Air” for home and a smaller “mini” when away. Sounds like maybe Samsung or some of the other non-IOS devices have taken a big bite out of Apple.
  • Tariffs
    @FD1000,
    We know that you like to discuss you, but this is not your thread. You are welcome to post your thoughts here on trump's tariffs and please stay on topic.
    Thanks for your compliance.
    You are right; I posted on the wrong thread.
    How about all of you be compliant and post your politics in the OFF TOPIC forum?
    Or maybe when someone starts a thread and asks not to post about politics, some of you do.
    Next time, please ask that poster to be compliant.
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    A tiny bright spot as of 11pm EST. 2, 5, 10 and 30 year UST's are slightly positive for pricing at this time. Someone is nibbling with buys.
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    Good post @Crash
    For sure. Liquidity issues among some big players were rumored last week. Shortage of cash in the system to cover losses. Perhaps the “elephant in the room” owing to the amount of leverage / speculation in the system. Credit markets were primed. T just lit the fuse.
    Story: Fed official says Fed ready to intervene if necessary.
    Here’s an earlier link to the FT posted in a different thread by @equalizer
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    Well seems like Lutnick was right- evidently they were temporary- just over the weekend.
    Maybe those will be in a new bucket: Mon-Fri only , or maybe even "weekday only but suspended for 90 days" , unless of course they convert to "Trump thinks of something else tariffs".
    Keep 'em off-balance, Trump baby !!
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    "U.S. President Donald Trump’s erratic tariff moves have led to wild swings in U.S. government debt over the past week by not only undermining confidence in the economy, but also the direction of U.S. policy and America’s standing in the world. That’s eroding appetite for U.S. assets and is undermining the status of the federal government’s debt as the world’s most risk-free asset against which virtually everything else is priced."
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2025/04/11/us-treasuries-slide-with-selloff-worst-since-2019-repo-blowout/
  • Policy Financial Implications
    @Crash- your inadvertent use of a "loose canon" surely harks back to one of your previous lives, but is actually quite appropriate:
    canon: 1) a general law, rule, principle, or criterion by which something is judged
                2) a collection or list of sacred books accepted as genuine
    Seems to me that we have a lot of both loose canons and loose cannons.
    :)
  • Tariffs
    @FD1000,
    We know that you like to discuss you, but this is not your thread. You are welcome to post your thoughts here on trump's tariffs and please stay on topic.
    Thanks for your compliance.
  • Tariffs
    @FD1000,
    This thread is for discussing tariffs not DOGE.
    Please stay on topic.
    If you would like to discuss DOGE, I would suggest creating a new Off-Topic thread for this purpose.
  • Tariffs
    I got screwed, so everyone else deserves it, too?
    About as much empathy there are the Orange Lump.
    I got a better idea. Don't fuck people. Instead, tax the rich. When's the last time they paid their FAIR share? Um... NEVER. Scale-back gov't jobs by attrition. Everyone gets older and wants to retire. Cut back spending gradually.
    The Repugnants are hell-bent on giving themselves that permanent tax cut. In order to do it, they want the rest of us to struggle. Life does not need to be such an ordeal. Where is it written that it must be so? I'll tell you: nowhere. But pass the Orange Kool-Aid, anyway. Who cares about others? I got myself to worry about. ... A selfish, closed-in way to live.
    Ya, THIS is the kind of silly, on-and-off, unreliable opossum shit that is roiling the world right now. It's quite impossible to make a plan at all.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/13/trump-commerce-chief-says-not-like-a-permanent-sort-of-exemption-for-phones-computers.html
  • Tariffs
    How do I know that DOGE work?
    The louder the scream, the more it's correct.
    Prez after Prez have been saying we are going to cut but didn't.
    Most of these Gov jobs are held by Dems and why they scream.
    If you were laid off, start looking for a job in the private sector.
    I was laid off 3 times after great reviews because my company didn't meet the goal, or was acquired, or they wanted to get rid of older guys.
    Two of them were immediately; they told me to take my hands off the keyboard and leave the building. One of them was exactly when my kids were in college. Each time it was 15-20% of the workforce. Welcome to the real world of corporate America.
    Please listen to this eye-opening interview and what the DOGE team has been doing (https://www.foxnews.com/video/6370654580112)
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    Lutnick is saying that this electronics tariff exemption is just temporary.
    May be Bessent, Lutnick & Navarro should be required to issue joint statements only.
    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/commerce-secretary-lutnick-tariff-exemptions-electronics-temporary/story?id=120752319
    No kidding. It's not just FOTUS that can't keep his story straight, but his top 'advisors' as well. This is pure insanity+incompetence from a gang that can't shoot, let alone speak, straight. And the markets, if not all of us, suffer from the chaos that shifts hour-by-hour, tweet-by-tweet, media-hit-by-media-hit.
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    YTD Performance Thru Friday, 11 April 2025 (aka WTD) -- Selected Funds
    image

    Sorted by absolute percentage return (APR), best to worst.
    Includes several funds from Lewis Braham article posted by @Observant.
    For year through Friday: QQQ -11%, SPY -8.6%, AGG +1.1%, BRKA +15.1%.
    Current drawdown, also through Friday: QQQ -12.9%, SPY -11.1%, JNK -3.7%, PIMIX -2.5%, DODIX -2.2%, AGG -1.8%.
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    It's interesting when people use pretzel logic in an attempt to somehow justify Trump's terrible tariffs.
    The tariff "plan" is clearly absurd (e.g., rate calculations, taxing uninhabited islands)
    and it was implemented haphazardly. Communication from administration officials regarding tariffs
    was often either nonexistant or contradictory. Most credible economists and financial professionals
    believe the end result will be higher inflation, increased unemployment, and lower GDP.
    Regardless of how some people "spin" these tariffs, it was an extremely imprudent act
    which heightened global financial risks and alienated major US allies.
    The art of reasoning is an art which often take decades to acquire.
    The same spin you guys used about the southern border being closed and the Prez is in great shape and runs the country. This is why all these threads belong in the OFF TOPIC forum.
    There are 5-6 posters that fill out the investment forums daily, and that's why we don't discuss investing as much.
    The other investing forum is still about investing, not politics.
  • Policy Financial Implications
    Let me guess:
    Another tariff post and the implication + more attacks and ridicule Trump.
    These articles/interviews are all the same. The results can be bad.
    Let's discuss the opposite: why I don't see it here. What will happen if most sign a deal?
    Remember, any time we get something we didn't have before, it's a win.
    If Europe starts spending more money on defense, it is a win too.
    I'm so afraid that Canadians are angry and won't help us.
    The elephant in the room is China. (https://www.foxnews.com/video/6371325293112)
    Why will Russia and China benefit?
    If oil goes down, Russia lose.
    If the US doesn't buy Chinese products, who will? Start thinking ST pain for LT gains and stop whining. But wait, Pelosi, Obama, and Biden believed in stopping China and put tariffs in place.
    Let's start talking about how to make money or even protect it. This is not the first decline. I want to know/discuss what to do Monday each week.
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    Most Americans, especially second-gen and beyond, are conditioned by a culture where negotiating feels awkward or rude. They treat prices and terms as fixed. But the world doesn’t run on fixed terms—it runs on what you can get someone else to agree to.
    * Leverage is power: The person who can walk away has the upper hand. The moment you need something, you’ve lost a chunk of your leverage.
    * Don’t bid against yourself: Starting with a $1 offer is symbolic—it shifts the power dynamic. You’re forcing the seller to chase you rather than the other way around. Most people cave and try to “be reasonable” too early. All these ridiculous numbers mean nothing, and then you read these articles: "It's not 37%, after tidious calculation, it's really only 15%." Who cares? good negotiators stars way, way beyond the target.
    * Negotiation is performance: BS, humor, firmness, preempting objections, and feigned disinterest—these are all tools. It’s not about being “polite”; it’s about reading the situation and playing the game.
    * Language and cultural unity matter: When you deal with groups who negotiate collectively, it adds a layer of strategy. You’re not dealing with one mind, you’re dealing with a shifting consensus. That’s tough.
    * Big picture thinking: If Trump gets 10% off here, 5% there—it’s not about the noise, it’s about net gains. What’s the bottom line?
    The art of negotiation is an art that is acquired over decades.
  • Policy Financial Implications
    Policy implications: this guy is coasting and hiding. I nibbled on just a few more shares I bought last week when the price was right. Otherwise, I am hiding. It feels like exile.
    Your love is like a see-saw.
  • Death-Crosses
    "If I am about to buy something, and death-cross is forming, I will delay buying a few days to see how it plays out. It's a negative formation that would prompt others to sell, so I won't stand in the way."
    FD: The common use is to buy after the golden cross, not the death cross.
    "Likewise, if I am about to sell something and golden-cross is forming, I will delay selling a bit."
    FD: Why would I sell, when there is a chance for an on-going rebound?
    The devil is in the details. I'm not impressed by any T/A that doesn't work at a very high % :-)
    My comments have nothing to do with YBB. It's all about the death/golden crosses that have been posted/published many times and used to work during 2000-10, but stopped, since then.
  • Death-Crosses
    Let's check how the death/golden cross worked in the past, using the SP500. See (link)