Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • What Are Your Favorite Fixed Income Investments?
    Added Pimco Foreign Bond PFORX early last year to my FI holdings, and it did well in 2014.
  • What Are Your Favorite Fixed Income Investments?
    Last month I bought an individual, new issue, 10yr T I P for my IRA and it is already up 2.9% with the plunge in rates. I'm tempted to cash it in and wait in cash for the spread (real yield) to go positive again to buy another one.
  • The New England Patriots Win And The Market
    FYI: In terms of the AFC vs. NFC breakdown, of the 48 prior Super Bowls played, the NFC has the upper hand in championships with 26 compared to 22 for the AFC. Thankfully for the bulls, the S&P 500 has historically performed much better for the remainder of the year when the NFC wins. Following the 26 prior NFC victories, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 10.6% with positive returns over 80% of the time. That is more than twice the return of the S&P 500 following the 22 AFC victories. In those years, the S&P 500 averaged a gain of just 4.3% with positive returns less than two-thirds of the time. The AFC hasn't been a total slouch, though. The last six times an AFC team won the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 has been up for the remainder of the year every time for an average gain of 13.6%.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2015/2/1/super-bowl-and-the-market.html?printerFriendly=true
  • Can somebody help in selecting funds for 401k
    @hank, @00BY: Thanks for those inputs.
    @Maurice: The 5-year period is what I am looking at now. It can be extended or curtailed short - I cannot say at this point of time, but with the view available to me at present, that is the situation. I do get taxed and will get if I withdraw earlier, but the addition of employer contribution would be more than helpful.
    Withdrawal in a non-earning year is an excellent idea. I would keep that in mind. Thanks.
    I have selected the two MS funds (debt portion; short and intermediate), the Invesco fund, Davis and Wells Fargo funds in 10,10,40,20,10 percents.
  • Templeton's Hasenstab Runs into Serious Problem With Big Bond Bet
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-29/hasenstab-sees-3-billion-vanish-in-ukraine-as-one-big-bet-sours
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-01/famous-bond-investor-turns-out-be-nothing-more-glorified-btfder
    "After loading up on more than $7 billion of the country’s bonds, Hasenstab has seen the value of the securities collapse as the conflict with pro-Russian rebels deepened an economic recession, depleted foreign reserves and prompted government calls for a debt restructuring. His investment, equal to almost half of all Ukraine’s foreign bonds, is now valued at just $4 billion, based on fund holdings from the end of the third and fourth quarters."
  • How far down will yields go - USA 10year 1.64%
    Hi @Old_Skeet
    You noted: " It seems many of my hybrid income, conserative and moderate allocation funds have been reducing their allocation to fixed income for sometime along with reducing the duration."
    >>>I will assume (a dangerous proposition) that the areas you mentioned "seem" to be reducing their allocation to fixed income. Is this based upon prospectus data that is 3 or more months old; or do you see this from another source?
    You also noted: "Currently, I don't feel fixed income is paying enough to justify holding as much of it as I have in the past....."
    >>>By paying, I again with presume you mean "yield". This is true of course, because of buying in these sectors. The yield is of little consequence at this point, with the price appreciation being the major value with fixed income. Fixed income is also a widely used term in writings. 'Course, I know that you know and understand that "fixed income" has many flavors. Even the much media bashed PTTRX is +2.62% YTD with "fixed income".
    Lastly, you noted: " increase my allocation to other assets by 10%."
    >>>What are other assets? I ask, as I know your holdings cover a lot of turf.
    Just trying to get a drift of your words.
    Thank you Old_Skeet, for your continuing investing thoughts posted to this fine site.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • What Are Your Favorite Fixed Income Investments?
    Good afternoon,
    I don't know how low yields will go ... but, they are now low enough for me to start to make some changes within my portfolio's overall asset allocation. Some of my past favorite fixed income investments are now becoming suspect.
    I have now lowered my allocation to fixed income within my portfolio form 25% to 20%. It seems many of my hybrid income, conserative and moderate allocation funds have been reducing their allocation to fixed income for sometime along with reducing the duration.
    I can remember when a 30% to 35% allocation to fixed income was of the norm for me and of that allocation I held a good slug in tax free muni's. Not so now.
    In addition, since domestic equities in general appear to be mostly overbought I am thinking of changing my allocation to 20% cash, 20% income, 20% domestic equity, 20% foreign equity, 20% other assets. To do this, I'll have to reduce my domestic equity allocation by 10% and increase my allocation to other assets by 10%.
    Currently, I don't feel fixed income is paying enough to justify holding as much of it as I have in the past and with domestic equities being mostly overbought well it is time for a change to my overall allocation.
    I'll be interested to learn how one of the board's master investors, Ted, positions going forward.
    Old_Skeet
  • How far down will yields go - USA 10year 1.64%
    Good afternoon,
    I don't know how low yields will go ... but, they are now low enough for me to start to make some changes within my portfolio's overall asset allocation.
    I have now lowered my allocation to fixed income within my portfolio form 25% to 20%. It seems many of my hybrid income, conserative and moderate allocation funds have been reducing their allocation to fixed income for sometime along with reducing the duration.
    I can remember when a 30% to 35% allocation to fixed income was of the norm for me and of that allocation I held a good slug in tax free muni's. Not so now.
    In addition, since domestic equities in general appear to be mostly overbought I am thinking of changing my allocation to 20% cash, 20% income, 20% domestic equity, 20% foreign equity, 20% other assets. To do this, I'll have to reduce my domestic equity allocation by 10% and increase my allocation to other assets by 10%.
    Currently, I don't feel fixed income is paying enough to justify holding as much of it as I have in the past and with domestic equities being mostly overbought well it is time for a change to my overall allocation.
    I'll be interested to learn how one of the board's master investors, Ted, positions going forward.
    Old_Skeet
  • How far down will yields go - USA 10year 1.64%
    @Dex
    I do believe this is part of what you are witnessing with global yields on gov't. debt issues. A race to the bottom, eh?
    Sadly, I also feel that some gov't. debt is also "junk".
    ECB will reportly buy 10% of public Spanish debt
    Two that I have linked in the past years; but are still valid today.
    QE, Clarke and Dawe
    European Debt Crisis, Clarke and Dawe
    Catch
  • What Are Your Favorite Fixed Income Investments?
    LOL - Non-productive exercise trying to pick a favorite fixed income fund I think. Sorta like picking a favorite color or rock star. They come in many different shades tailored to various needs.
    I'm hopeful the good performance of junk munis is telling us something positive about the prospects for the economy and risk markets in general over the next several years. When the economy slumps, state and municipal governments really take it on the chin. Tax receipts fall as social welfare expenses rise. Those underfunded pension funds will fare much better too with rising stock and real-asset prices.
    Fees are extremely important in choosing fixed income funds. Essentially, because potential returns after fees aren't as great as for equities. Don't know how the money market and short term bond funds are staying alive. Operating costs must be greater than meager returns from investment. Perhaps they're willing to subsidize these in hopes their investors will move the money into other funds,
    I find the whole fixed-income picture so confusing, I've largely abdicated my responsibilities. Let the guy or gal running Spectrum Income (RPSIX), Dodge & Cox Income (DODIX) or similar diversified income funds decide how to invest it. At .43%, another reason to like the second.
    Re: MFLDX- I feel for them. Off 13.3% year over year. Largely a victim of circumstance I think. (crashing energy and commodities prices and an investor stampede) But that's another story. Obviously, their mandate was to make money for investors and they failed miserably.
  • What Are Your Favorite Fixed Income Investments?
    Hold for the long run has been the conventional pablum shoved down investors throats since the beginning of time. I don't know about you, but in the long run I am dead.
    "The stock market teaches you to lose." Dex
    That is what has been happening since 1999. Fewer people have been putting their money into stocks. The ups and downs have scared them away, and, the lack of disposable income.
    http://ns.umich.edu/new/releases/22365-stock-market-participation-has-dropped-most-among-small-investors
    But, if you are a contrary investor, you might want to read this:
    http://fortune.com/2014/10/23/retail-investors/
    Similar to what happened in the 1930s, if there is another large decline, investors will not go back into stocks for many years. This also might lower bond yields.
    Investing has been and always will be a war between love(greed?) and fear.
    Due to Junkster pointing out HY muni bonds I am sleeping very well. And as a byproduct, my tax forms will be very easy to file this year.
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/18699/how-far-down-will-yields-go-usa-10year-1-64#latest
  • Some fund sector(s) charts are more visually interesting than others SPY v EDV v XLE
    We, at this house; use the visuals of charting to help us better understand what we think is taking place from verbal or written commentaries, which help form intuitive considerations for investment directions.
    Personally, aside from any data obtained using charting that reflects moving averages pricing, relative strength; and the other 1,000 points of interest for hardcore charting folks, my brain "enjoys" and has better investing results from the plain and simple visuals of charts. I need all of the help I may find with investing.
    Some charts are more visually interesting than others, due to the relationship of some market sectors; relative to one another. You may find the below linked chart of visual interest, too; among these 3 market sectors.
    Chart of SPY v EDV v XLE 200 day period.
    Lastly, the spread; as of Jan 30 between the percentage return of EDV and XLE is 58.74.
    Now, more coffee before the winter storm hits to keep me busy with other things I would rather not be doing late tonight and Monday morning. I just "heart" winter weather. :)
    Enjoy,
    Catch
  • What Are Your Favorite Fixed Income Investments?
    Not to keep beating the same drum but since January of 2014 (13 months ago) it's been junk muni bond funds. But for some unfathomable reason, and much to my delight, investors have always (like forever) seemed to have had a problem embracing anything termed junk - be it junk munis or junk corporates. By the way, it has been something like 9 or 10 consecutive trading days that junk corporates as measured by the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index have risen, albeit at a snail's pace. Could that be the next big thing in Yieldland?
    A bear market in equities won't be good for corporate junk bonds. A rebound in stocks and they could really be off to the races. A bit vague maybe but you put your money down but be ready to take it off the table real quick if proven wrong. Unfortunately that is a mindset foreign to most investors. Like my friend here who bet on SUBFX early last year as a bet AGAINST lower yields. For all I know he still holds that fund and it may indeed work out someday. But in the meantime, what a waste of time and capital sitting on such a loser while he could have been making money in something that was working instead (kind of like the MFLDX aficionados) Hold for the long run has been the conventional pablum shoved down investors throats since the beginning of time. I don't know about you, but in the long run I am dead.
  • What Are Your Favorite Fixed Income Investments?
    The yield on the 10-year Treasury has fallen to 1.639%. IIRC, in the first week of January 2014 it was approximately 3%.
    What are your favorite fixed income investments?
  • How far down will yields go - USA 10year 1.64%
    With the German Bund yielding 30 basis points, I could definitely see dropping below the 1% threshold.
    It would probably mean things have deteriorated here in the US.
  • How far down will yields go - USA 10year 1.64%
    I'm still of the mind that the US 10 year will hit 1%. We'll see if it might go lower when it gets there.
    The closer we get to 1.0% the less likely the FED will raise rates - the US$ would rise hurting exports, and decreasing import prices - hurting domestic producers.
    What do you think?
    U.S. 10yr1.64-0.000.26%
    German 10y0.27-0.0516.56%
    Italy 10yr1.58-0.010.51%
    Spain 10yr1.45+0.000.08%
    U.K. 10yr1.34+0.000.29%
    Japan 10yr0.28-0.013.38%
    Euro1.13-0.000.18%
    Yen117.53-0.750.64%
    Pound1.51+0.000.22%
    Australia$0.78+0.000.48%
  • Any thoughts on adding small position LT Tips Fund to a fixed income portfolio?
    Hi @ron
    Just my opinion at this time. We have held active managed TlPs funds, including LTPZ.
    These funds have their periods of in and out of favor, not unlike equity funds. I have not performed a chart study recently, but one will likely discover more swings with the TIPs funds area than with corporate bond holdings. Obviously, these two bond types are supposed to provide somewhat different functions.
    I have noted here several times in the past years that the greatest impact in pricing for TIPs that remains in place is the yield of other gov't. issues and that these bonds also become a flight to safety device when folks are not happy with other market sectors.
    This is only my opinion, of course.
    We have not invested in TIPs for any relation to receiving income from the investment; but to obtain capital appreciation from pricing. We have not used this area as a long term holding; and from my recall, we have not held TIPs for more than a year, during the last 5 or 6 years.
    EDV ,TLT ,LTPZ follow the long term gov't. bond pricing. TIP and other TIPs active managed funds tend to follow the middle dated yield/pricing of gov't issues.
    All of these had a bad 2013 period, as they followed the gov't longer dated issues.
    EDV is the hot dog in this area for both the up and the down, slightly followed by TLT and LTPZ. EDV would be my choice, next would be LTPZ in the TIPs area.
    As to active managed TIPs funds, they are pretty much in line with TIP for the longer term, but vary on a shorter term as the managers move around the duration ranges and in many cases also hold corp. bonds as well.
    Ron, you noted LTPZ in particular; so I presume you have access to EDV as well.
    For our house, we do our best to either purchase a 5% position on day one or at least obtain this percentage within a month's time with an average in once a week. Otherwise, we don't feel the holding has enough effect upon a portfolio.
    Lastly, is how long is this down trend going to stay in place relative to bond yield? A real head scratcher. And that the etf's discussed above can and do move as much as a speciality equity sector. One should watch them for price movements, IMO. These will not neccessarily behave like a smoother, well managed corp. bond fund.
    I probably forget something........will add later if needed; as I have to be away for a few hours tonight.
    Don't forget, lest I get dragged across the carpet. These are only my views/opinions.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Frontier Markets
    I've been in TRP Africa/Middle East TRAMX for 2 and a half years, very pleased. It sank last year through the latter months, but still gave me good profit. Right now, it's less than 3% of my portfolio. I use its (so far) outsized returns to feed money into my core fund: PRWCX. LONG-term bet, for sure, and I'd not let it even get to be 5% of portfolio. The ER is not horrible, at 1.42%. Morningstar puts the fund in a crazy "non-category" category.