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Birinyi Not Even Sure What's Going On With Stocks

TedTed
edited October 2014 in Fund Discussions
FYI: If you’re confused as to what’s going on with the stock market, you’re in pretty good company.

In a recent note, Birinyi Associates, headed by Salomon Brothers veteran Laszlo Birinyi, said the S&P 500 SPX has a 60% probability of hitting the firm’s year-end target of 2,100, compared with the 80% probability of a month ago.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/10/14/birinyi-not-even-sure-whats-going-on-with-stocks/tab/print/

Comments

  • From the note:

    "Our biggest concern is that we are not sure as to what is happening."

    Hey, an honest evaluation for a change!!
  • Gonna be a flat close... nothing decisive today.
  • edited October 2014
    Oil: “No commodity is more tracked, analyzed, and discussed and yet all of a sudden we have a glut and a surplus?”

    This.
  • Scott- I just posted this in another thread- I'm chasing you around I guess.

    With all that's going on right now with Russia/EU/US and the Mideast (much worse crap there than usual, if that's even conceivable) the oil scene right now is sorta like playing 7-card stud with all wild cards.

    Russia and the Mideast producers can't really cut production right now, as they need all the income possible to pursue wars and general nastiness. Less demand, same production = lower prices.
  • edited October 2014
    I am hoping the 2100 comes to be for a year end close for the S&P 500 Index as forecast by Birinyi. This would equate to just short of a 12% gain from current levels of 1878. Which is indeed possible should forward earnings estimates materialize as anticipated.

    Anyway, I now have my marker on the bet line that it will as I bought again today. With this I have recently bought at the 1970's, the 1920's and the 1870's. My next buy step is the 1820's and then beyond that at 1770.

    Keep in mind that year end capital gain distributions are expected to be on the heavy side this year. Since, I take all my distributions in cash I have decided to put these anticipated distributions to work early and use the forth coming distributions to restore the cash position within my portfolio used to make these purchases.

    With my average cost on amount invested currently at about 1920 and should the Index reach the forecasted 2100 year end closing mark then this will equal about a 8.5% gain. Should I buy again at the 1820's then this will lower my cost on amount invested to about 1895 and increase the gain to 10.8% should the 2100 mark be reached. With another buy at the 1770's and if the 2100 year end closing mark be reached then this would equate to about a 12.3% gain.

    For me it is risk on for the traditional fall stock market rally.

    Old_Skeet
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