I listened to the whole thing. Sounds like a nice guy. But, like many stock market 'talkers' he leaves a lot to the listeners interpretation and leaves himself 'outs'.
Basically, he said the stock market valuation is high, not as high as 2000, and could go higher.
Let's put him in the same class as Art Cashin.

I also listened to the whole thing. Yes, very nice guy, won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2013 along with 2 others.
He says the current CAPE is 26, with a historical average of 15. But it was 45 in the year 2000. The current CAPE still suggests positive returns, but not nearly as high as expectations. CAPE in Europe is significantly lower, and much lower still in the PIGS or PIIGS countries and China. He said his theory would be to invest there, in the low CAPE countries, but he hesitated and said he wanted to think about that....Too bad the interview was so short and didn't cover bonds, except for the briefest mention of them. Would like to know Robert Shiller's thoughts on the bond market.

"Here we are, 10-plus months into the year, and we have nothing to show for it. "
I count 9 ½ months. I guess if we are trying to be accurate at least get the calendar right.
As for the corrections, maybe so but a reference would be nice.

What's the reason for significantly increased distributions from stock mutual funds over last year?
In 2013, the market was up 32.4%, so naturally actively managed stock mutual funds had tons of realized capital gains from selling appreciated winning positions. Regarding stock dividend distributions, the 30 day SEC yield of VFIAX is 1.99%.

Dex, I am praying I have to pay that $250 at 2%. But at 1% I don't believe either of us will be happy (with you know what) I mean 1% could mean some serious economic problems worse than 2008 and you saw what you know what did in 2008.

Recently I was thinking on how I will spend that $500 when the US 10 year gets to 1%.

I found this interesting.
"Since 1928, markets have averaged about three 5 percent corrections each calendar year"
Were most MFOers aware of this? (I wasn't)

@rjb112: I agree, I like it better than M*'s tool.
Regards,
Ted

" "Fairholme's 13.2% annualized return has outperformed 99% of peers over 10 years. " (FAIRX's performance over the past five years since is at the 98th percentile.) "
The question for us Fairholme investors is, were the last 5 years mean reversion and Berkowitz has no particular talent, or were the first ten years the "mean" for him, and we'll soon revert back to that?
As far am I'm concerned, if the answer is the former, I may give up on active management except for very low-cost, group managed funds such as Vanguard's non-index offerings.

FYI: Fixed income gurus, financial media talking heads and asset managers have been forecasting rising interest rates for at least two years. They were (and still are) wrong.
Even as recently as one week ago, bond prices took a hit on news of a jobs report that showed a pickup in hiring last month, but prices picked back up this week after Fed minutes revealed that some participants wanted to err on the side of patience to keep supporting the world’s largest economy for longer than expected.
This type of mixed news and uncertainty is likely to continue as the fear of a weaker economy outweighs the fear of inflation. But even if rates start rising in 2015, as is currently expected, it doesn’t mean panic and mass exodus from bonds.
Needless to say, investors in bond funds have been challenged to do a good job of managing the fixed income portion of their portfolios. With that in mind, here are 3 bond funds to buy now for uncertain economic and market conditions.
Regards,
Ted
http://investorplace.com/2014/10/3-bond-funds-unpredictable-market/print

@Tampabay: I've never been a believer in the so called 'eating your own cooking' theory. I could care less if a fund manager has any money in the fund he/she manages. The proof in the pudding is what kind of returns do they get. There is no evidence that funds who's managers invest in them perform any better.
Regards,
Ted

Businessweek, Jan 14, 2010: "According to a July 2009 study by fund tracker Morningstar (MORN), managers with more than a $1 million stake in their own funds beat 58% of peers, on average, over the past five years. Funds with no manager investment beat 46% of peers."
Whether this is credible evidence is debatable, but there is evidence.
Now the next sentence in this article from almost five years ago reads: "Fairholme's 13.2% annualized return has outperformed 99% of peers over 10 years. " (FAIRX's performance over the past five years since is at the 98th percentile.)

The author writes that the Trinity Study was updated in 2009 (it was updated in 2011 using data through 2009), says he conducted his own "research" over a 23 year period covering the years 1988-2011 (that's 24 years, from Jan 1 1988 to Dec 31 2011), and uses a single 23 24 year period (a curiously odd number) rather than rolling 30 year periods as Trinity did.
If one is going to use a single time period, then instead of his choice of 1988-2011, one might look at 1973-2002 (a true 30 year period). Eyeballing suggests this is the worst postwar 30 year span - starting with the dreadful 1973-1974 bear market (-48%), 1980-82, 1987 (a quick 3 mo. loss of 33.5%), and ending with the 2000-2002 loss of 49.1%.
(I really don't know how bad this would come out; it is left as an exercise for the reader.)
Bear market data: http://www.nbcnews.com/id/37740147/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/t/historic-bear-markets/
Annual Returns on Stock, T.Bonds and T.Bills: 1928 - Current
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html

@John, Many of us don't have $100K to meet the required minimum. Wish they would have lower requirement for tax deferred accounts.

FYI: If you are searching for reliable retirement income you might find yourself in a tough situation these days. Bank CD’s pay close to nothing. Bonds are expensive and aren’t paying very much interest either. What’s an investor to do?
Regards,
Ted
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2014/10/01/use-mutual-funds-to-create-retirement-income/print/

American Funds
https://www.americanfunds.com/resources/tax/capital-gains/index.html
Aquila Funds
http://aquilafunds.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/CapGainEst-9-15-2014.pdf
Diamond Hill Funds
http://www.diamond-hill.com/wp-content/uploads/DHF-year-to-date-capital-gains-as-of-9-30-14.pdf
SunAmerica Funds
https://www.safunds.com/pdf/Tax-Center/Cap-Gains-Estimate/asset_upload_file222_7170.pdf
Sentinel Investments
https://www.sentinelinvestments.com/pdf/capgainsdist-est2014.pdf

FYI: Successful investors know that mutual fund distribution season is approaching, and 2014 is shaping up as the fifth year in a row of increased largesse by mutual funds.
The potential downside would be higher taxes for shareholders in accounts held outside of tax-deferred retirement accounts like IRAs or 401(k)s.
Regards,
Ted
http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTg1NTM3OTg=
Enlarged Graphic: http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WEBMFfund101314.gif&docId=721282&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=603&caption=&id=721283

FYI: Here we are, 10-plus months into the year, and we have nothing to show for it.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-13/what-i-suspect-and-fear-for-the-stock-markets

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/10/shiller-on-long-term-stock-predictions-and-what-to-watch-in-this-wild-market-2/print/

FYI: After a recent talk to a small investment club in eastern Massachusetts, I was asked what one question I would ask a fund manager—if only allowed one question—before deciding whether to buy the fund.
I asked the audience members to guess at what my answer would be, and none even came close.
My inquiry was simple: “How much money do you have invested in your own fund?”
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-most-important-question-to-ask-a-fund-manager-2014-10-13/print

@MJG: For your infromation, I linked the Ellis document along with the Scott Burns article. What's the point?
Regards,
Ted
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/16176/scott-burns-the-performance-management-lottery-ticket/p1