http://www.wsj.com/articles/imf-cuts-u-s-2015-economic-growth-forecast-to-2-5-1433424601
IMF Urges Fed to Wait on Interest Rates Until 2016
IMF cuts U.S. 2015 economic growth forecast to 2.5%
=====
The economic recovery has been tepid. Maybe not a bear market but a trading range. We've been trained to expect a sharp decline. Maybe it will be a slow grind.
There is always a large terrorist attack - all bets off if that happens.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-07/the-hugely-profitable-wholly-legal-way-to-game-the-stock-market
Wall Street hedge funds and trading desks can take advantage of index funds by taking positions before particular stocks are added/removed from various indexes....
This is news.... to whom?
Slow news/post July 4th trading week?
How about "Weak indiscriminate reporting ... Wholly legal way to generate millions of spurious web clicks." ??

I'll scrimp on unnecessary expenses (e.g, I pay about $10-$30/year for cellphone service, depending on my limited usage). But I won't cut corners on essentials, like health care, or on family (stop smirking, all you people thinking of Greece :-)).

I'm thinking about going to this one. Which do you use?
https://ringplus.net/

That looks great, at least worth trying - you can't beat free.
Mine is a legacy plan, no longer offered: T-Mobile prepaid (the old one). When I was doing more traveling for consulting work, I'd pay $100 for 1000 minutes which would usually last me the year. Now, I'm hardly using any minutes. Just need the line.
For that, all I need to do is top it off with $10/year (30 minutes airtime) - that keeps the account active and retains all unused minutes. If I ever get close to zero minutes left, I'll pay $100 for another thousand minutes, which will last me several years at my current usage rate.
Here's a page describing the old prepaid plan and the new one:
http://www.prepaidphonenews.com/2014/08/good-news-bad-news-changes-coming-to-t.html
The new one isn't that much worse than what I have, depending on your usage pattern.

QLAC Primer:
understanding-and-implementing-qlacs-in-a-retirement
@Junkster...The author suggests:
You could divide the $125,000 limit into three policies, enabling withdrawals at ages 75, 80 and 85, respectively. It wouldn't provide as large a distribution as if it all came at age 85, but this staggered approach provides flexibility and hedges against life's "what ifs."
and,
Similarly, you could craft a staggered, multi-QLAC arrangement, each with different benefits and payout timing. One could have a COLA, another a cash refund and a third could forgo the cash refund. This would provide varying income streams at different stages of retirement.

>>>This thread gets me back to a theme I've been posting on (some might say excessively) lately - guaranteed income streams. Whether from immediate annuities, SS, or longevity insurance, they do help to relieve concern about needing to save (hoard?) for lifelong needs. 'Nuff said.<<<<
I have 100% decided that when I turn 70 that I will purchase the newly approved QLAC (Qualified Longevity Annuity Contract) You can deduct up to $125,000 of your IRA to purchase such and they are *exempt* when figuring your RMD. I will take one that begins paying out at 80 and will get a bare bones version that has no death benefit etc. Presently only two or three insurance companies offer QLACs. More will join the bandwagon in the future. I will only deal with New York Life and they are expected to join the QLAC fray within the next year.

I'll scrimp on unnecessary expenses (e.g, I pay about $10-$30/year for cellphone service, depending on my limited usage). But I won't cut corners on essentials, like health care, or on family (stop smirking, all you people thinking of Greece :-)).

I'm thinking about going to this one. Which do you use?
https://ringplus.net/

A few more details about medical expenses and taxes (to throw into your personal tax mix):

Also, if you have self employment income equal to or greater than your medical insurance premiums you can reduce self employment income dollar for dollar up to what was spent on medical insurance premium. This is an AGI, not an itemized deduction, so it's not necessary to itemize to take this deduction.
from link:
" If you are self-employed, you can also deduct the cost of your health insurance premiums regardless of how they compare to your adjusted gross income. Deduct the total amount of health insurance premiums paid for the previous year on line 29 of Form 1040. Fill out the "Self-Employed Health Insurance Deduction Worksheet" in the instructions for Form 1040 to calculate your deduction amount."
deduct-medical-expenses-adjusted-gross-income-15960.html

A few more details about medical expenses and taxes (to throw into your personal tax mix):
- The tax laws were changed so that medical expenses are deductible only to the extent that they exceed 10% (formerly 7.5%) of your AGI (Form 1040, line 37). That's net expenses, after ACA subsidies.
- There's a two year exception for people over age 65 (lasting through tax year 2016); for these folks, the floor remains at 7.5%.
- If you use a special tax account (e.g. HSA) to pay for some medical expenses, then you can't use those particular expenses in calculating your medical deduction.
- Insurance premiums (other than Medicare, COBRA, and LTC) can not be paid out of an HSA (so the only place they can be used is in calculating medical itemized deductions).
- A person under age 65 may not pay for their spouse's Medicare premiums out of their own HSA. (You must be over 65 to pay for Medicare premiums from your HSA.)

To a small extent I probably match the profile described. But I'd describe it more as being frugal than obsessive.
I had to smile at the line about losing a home sale over a $200 haggle. When we sold our home (from a distance), we'd already conceded several thousand dollars which were for a justified repair, but balked when the buyers demanded a concession for something completely outrageous. I forget what it was, but even the realtors (both ours and the buyer's) felt it was so absurd that they put up the petty amount to get the sale to go through.
I'll scrimp on unnecessary expenses (e.g, I pay about $10-$30/year for cellphone service, depending on my limited usage). But I won't cut corners on essentials, like health care, or on family (stop smirking, all you people thinking of Greece :-)).
I resent paying more than I feel is a fair price, even if there's no substitute. Gluten-free items tend to cost over $8/pound, even for a cracker. So I rejoiced when I read that Cheerios is going gluten free (at no additional cost).
After cutting back on earned income (somewhat involuntarily), it took me awhile to resume entertainment expenses. But now, like OJ, I'm subscribed to the local symphony, and have even picked up tickets for the opera in the coming season. That's something else OJ might consider - one of the two best opera companies in the US is right in your backyard.
This thread gets me back to a theme I've been posting on (some might say excessively) lately - guaranteed income streams. Whether from immediate annuities, SS, or longevity insurance, they do help to relieve concern about needing to save (hoard?) for lifelong needs. 'Nuff said.
Regarding ACA costs - unfortunately, this was not one of the NYTimes best articles - it read more like a tabloid, leading with sensationalist figures. Try following a couple of the links in the article to get a calmer picture. One to the associated NYTimes Upshot column, the other to the KFF (Kaiser) study cited.

@bee and @msf
I did note previous in this thread about being able to itemize deductions for federal (which may also positively affect state taxes, too); and that this ability may have value with deducting mortgage interest and/or that mortgage interest may be the trigger for enough money to get into the itemized deduction section.
It has since been noted too about being able to deduct property tax, and other smaller items that would not otherwise be able to be used.
Another itemized dedcution that has become "more" important in the last year is for the medical expenses area. I will guess that this was not the case previously, except with special medical circumstances within a family's expenses.
NOW, with some families finding more extreme montetary expenses from compliance with ACA, I will again guess that more families now also have this area available for itemizing.
From experience with some friends and families, the following may now exist:
---much higher out of pocket costs for medical and dental plans
-including policy premiums
-co-pays (medical/dental)
-co-pays (meds)
I played devils advocate with several folks beginning the start period for new ACA rules to help determine previously unused/couldn't use itemized deductions for this area, due to percentage cut off points. Most of these people would not have considered these deductions in prior years.
Some were now able to include medical/dental expenses due to higher policy premiums, more out-of-pocket expenses for items related to medical and dental. There are many items available to include within this itemized area.
Obviously, everything will vary depending upon one's personal monetary circumstance.
However, this is another point of consideration for maintaining a mortgage to allow for this interest deduction that may allow for many other itemized deductions.
Lastly, as a method of testing whether all of this may be of value versus using the standard tax deduction; is to use tax software and create another "user" tax report as if it was going to be the "real thing". From my recall, the two most popular tax software programs let one create up to 6 tax returns. So, one may fill in the blanks to test if medical/dental deductions of all flavors would meet the cut-off percentage to be of value in reducing taxable income.
Sadly, as we know; tax things should not have to be so complex for regular folks, but this is how things are, eh?
Note: many years ago, we did move to a 15 year mortgage at something around 6.75%.
As has been noted here, we pretty much doubled up on the monthly payment. The only variable was that we funded retirement investments to the maximum first. The most important factor, as we here know; is that we did not live beyond our means and were and still are very good with money flows revolving around the wants and needs of human nature.
I think I rambled about what was in my mind an hour ago. :)
Take care,
Catch

One of the best fund managers I ever "hired" - Arden Armstrong. Other notables?
NYTimes, June 13, 1999, INVESTING WITH: Arden Armstrong; MAS Mid-Cap Growth Fund

If you cannot afford 15 year mortgages, there are 20 year plans and other variations.

Personally the best thing my wife and I have done financially was to convert our 30-year mortgage to a 15-year mortgage years ago. We will have no mortgage when we retire. That is huge.

One can accomplish this by making extra payments on a 30 year mortgage. The advantage of doing it this way is that if you ever need/want to not make the extra payment you don't have to. I often skip the extra payment around the holidays and make up the difference when I get my tax return. I like the flexibility of having a lower required payment (30 yr) that I choose

when to make extra payments (as if its a 15 yr).
Here's a calculator that help figure out what the extra payment would need to be:
what-if-i-pay-more-calculator

Years ago, I got a cold call from a mortgage broker, trying to convince me to refinance to a 15 year to pay it down faster. I said exactly what you wrote - that I could do that myself. His retort was that 98% of people who say they'll do this don't. I can't comment on the accuracy of his figure, but I'm sure that many people don't have the discipline to do this (not anyone here, of course :-)).
I did ultimately refinance, first to a 15 year, and later to a 15 year adjustable (first 5 years fixed) mortgage, figuring that I'd either refinance after 5 if rates were decent, or pay it off. I lost the flexibility you described, but gained lower rates. Again, no free lunch - I took on higher risk for better returns.

Personally the best thing my wife and I have done financially was to convert our 30-year mortgage to a 15-year mortgage years ago. We will have no mortgage when we retire. That is huge.

One can accomplish this by making extra payments on a 30 year mortgage. The advantage of doing it this way is that if you ever need/want to not make the extra payment you don't have to. I often skip the extra payment around the holidays and make up the difference when I get my tax return. I like the flexibility of having a lower required payment (30 yr) that I choose when to make extra payments (as if its a 15 yr).
Here's a calculator that help figure out what the extra payment would need to be:
what-if-i-pay-more-calculator

Paying off a 3% mortgage seems to me a very conservative/safe move. I'd liken it to owning a Treasury Bond netting holder a guaranteed 3% after taxes. As safe investments go, in an era of minuscule bond & CD rates, that 3% guaranteed return doesn't look bad.

Assuming you itemize deductions, you need to compare with a Treasury yielding 3% beforetaxes. It's a common mistake - one that Mr. Burns made as well, and that I commented on above.
The pretax cost of the mortgage is 3%. When you itemize, you get to reduce your taxable income. This results in a tax savings (and so lower net cost of the mortgage). So your aftertax cost of the mortgage is 3% x (1 -r%), where r% is your tax rate.
That's exactly the same equation and net yield on a Treasury with a 3% pretax rate. Same idea - income taxes reduce the magnitude of any figure - the yield of a mortgage or the cost of a mortgage.
The "lock" problem cuts both ways. In order to get a Treasury yielding 3% (pretax), you have to go out 30 years. Odds are, your mortgage has fewer years to go. The only way to get a better return on the cash is to take on more risk. As you suggested, rates might rise to 5-6%. In the meantime, you've put money into a lower yielding, shorter term Treasury, hoping (risk) that rates will rise soon enough and fast enough that you come out ahead. Or you've invested in a more risky vehicle to get a higher return.
TANSTAAFL.

Personally the best thing my wife and I have done financially was to convert our 30-year mortgage to a 15-year mortgage years ago. We will have no mortgage when we retire. That is huge.

@davidmoran
Oops - thanks for the correction!
No - the term's not original. "Sleep factor" comes up a lot when discussing investments. As it should. So, you really need to look at the mortgage decision in the context of all your investments and liabilities.
Paying off a 3% mortgage seems to me a very conservative/safe move. I'd liken it to buying a Treasury Bond netting holder a guaranteed 3% after taxes. As safe investments go, in an era of minuscule bond & CD rates, that 3% guaranteed return doesn't look bad.
The only fly in the ointment ... that 3% mortgage likely has a "lock". Should interest rates move up to 5-6% during the term of the loan, you'll feel very smart having kept the mortgage. In that case, bragging rights would go to those still holding 3% mortgages.
-
PS: I'm in the group that values home ownership. I like to be able to kick that dirt under my feet. However, many in our society lead perfectly normal happy lives as renters. Some of the upper level "rentals" in NYC @$10,000+ a month don't look too shabby!

FYI: If your mutual fund is run by a woman, it is a rarity.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB11670627175020993366304581066292742744646

Bubbly + Help from state-backed margin finance company = What ???
Chinese shares dropped almost two percent in early trading, reversing much of gains made on Monday following unprecedented steps to stabilise a plummeting market.
Asian assets were also increasingly burdened by rising concerns over massive losses in Chinese stock markets over the past month or so.
Unprecedented emergency measures from Beijing helped Chinese stocks to bounce on Monday but trading remained highly volatile.
In an extraordinary weekend of policy moves, brokerages and fund managers vowed to buy massive amounts of stocks, helped by China's state-backed margin finance company, which in turn would be aided by a direct line of liquidity from the central bank.
"Prior to the selloff the Chinese market looked bubbly, kept rising even as the economy is slowing. It will take some time for the market to calm down," said Shuji Shirota, head of macroeconomics strategy group at HSBC in Tokyo.
"Judging from Japanese experience it is not easy to support share prices just by price keeping operation," he said, referring to Japanese attempts in the 1990s to shore up the stock market by using public funds to buy shares.
Fears of instability in the Chinese economy dented many types of assets that are thought to be leveraged to demand from China.
In the currency market, the Australian dollar fell to a six-year low of $0.7452 on Monday and last stood at $0.7485.
Shanghai copper posted its steepest daily drop in 5 months on Monday, while Chinese steel prices are at their lowest level since the depths of the global financial crisis. Iron ore has fallen 17 per cent since mid-June.
http://profit.ndtv.com/news/market/article-asia-shares-win-reprieve-but-greece-china-concerns-limit-gains-778868
Related to China margin stabilization efforts.
"The stocks exemplify one of the keys to China’s recent market selloff: Some of the biggest losers are companies with a relatively small portion of their shares freely traded, many of them bought using borrowed money."
http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-firms-discover-margin-lendings-downside-1435653636