@Observant1, thank you.
Nice to learn the unique aspects of these funds mentioned here. AQR funds are interesting, but they often have expense ratio over 2%.

Thanks for the link @Observant1

Here's a link to Lewis Braham's "The Chaos-Resistant Fund Portfolio" article referenced by Hank.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/the-chaos-resistant-fund-portfolio/ar-AA1Ch1BR

@Old_Joe A1 ? Thanks for the chuckle!

Anytime I'm alive feels good to me. I can listen to the Ramones on golden oldies shows. :)
IIRC the low value of the S&P was due to inflation. By August of 1982 the inflation rate had dropped from around 8.4 in January to 5.9 in August. So the bond market was off to the start of its own bull market.

IIRC, the PE ratio back in 1982 was in the single digits. That's what I call real capitulation. It's Just my WAG that current valuations are twice that after all the recent activity. I don't think that's where great bull markets typically start.
I don't believe in charts, so take my comments accordingly.

Great point. The 82 bull also came after the going nowhere years of 66-82. Back then it seemed all of a sudden the baby boomers then in their early thirties woke up one day and began thinking about their retirement and so began the rush into equities. The 80s were the best of times - music, movies, TV series, etc. I don’t believe in charts either. Never met a rich chartist.

IIRC, the PE ratio back in 1982 was in the single digits. That's what I call real capitulation. It's Just my WAG that current valuations are twice that after all the recent activity. I don't think that's where great bull markets typically start.
I don't believe in charts, so take my comments accordingly.

Nice 35 year graph of NYSE UpVol / DownVol.
https://ibb.co/S1BPJMn

Death-cross is when the 50-dMA crosses the 200-dMA in a down move.
Eyeballing StockCharts 50-dMA and 200-dMA trends, the Death-Crosses may be coming soon:
Nasdaq Comp/ONEQ - 2 weeks?
Nasdaq 100/QQQ - 3 weeks?
SP500/VOO - 4 weeks?
R2000/IWM - already on 3/24/25 (also, in the bear territory)
DJ Transports - already on 3/18/25

Well, we are on an Internet time!
Nasdaq Comp - happened on 4/8/25
Nasdaq 100 - almost there
SP500 - almost there

@Derf - More like "AS"- artificial stupidity.
Later... OJ

A1

If I may don my sorcerer's hat for a moment, I'd like to point out some curious symmetry which might augur well for the stock market.
$INDU peaked at 45054.36 on 1/31/25, fell to 40661.77 on 3/13/25, and then rallied to 42821.83 on 3/26/25. The difference between 45054.36 and 40661.77 is 4392.59, which when subtracted from 40661.77 is 36269.18, which is rather close to the low of 36611.78 on 4/7/25.
In a similar vein, $SPX peaked at 6147.43 on 2/19/25, fell to 5504.65 on 3/13/25, and then rallied to 5786.95 on 3/25/25. The difference between 6147.43 and 5504.65 is 642.78, which when subtracted from 5504.65 is 4861.87, which is rather close to the low of 4835.04 on 4/7/25.

Wow...the highest ever! Thanks for putting Wednesday's NYSE up vs. down volume ratio into historical context.
The stock and bond markets are now weighing whether the Trump "reciprocal tariff" team and it's leader (Trump) will be able to arrive at minimally disruptive agreements with the 57 countries currently scheduled to face steeply increased tariffs after 90 days. The markets are also continuing to weigh the impact of the new across the board 10% tariff, the recently increased tariffs on Canada and Mexico and the recently increased tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos (with prescription drugs tariffs coming soon). And, of course, the markets are waiting to see if Trump and Xi Jinping are able to get past the first move and resolve their differences in a market friendly way.
The Zweig indicator's long history of success provides reason to hope as does Trump's desire to retain congressional majorities after the mid-term elections. But, Trump thrives on chaos and has been letting his intuition guide his actions since his return to the White House. Hopefully Trump will figure out a way declare victory and move on. We probably know before very long if Zweig's indicator is up to the challenge Trump is presenting it with.

Update -
As of 2:40 PM today the Dow was again above the historically significant 40,000 mark.
+1.45% +580 points at 40,172 (Yes - it’s likely run back and forth before.)
I’d appreciate it if you could direct any political perspectives to some other thread. We managed to have some fun discussing the 40,000 mark 11 months ago without reference to politics,

Hey @Junkster! Thanks for that.
It was after all, one of the bigger short squeezes of all-time!
From a definition perspective, it's pretty easy to argue at this point it was a DCB, as it was NOT based on fundamentals (rather the deep fear that a deep recession was being risked) and the price direction immediately reversed that night/the next day. But to fully define a DCB:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deadcatbounce.asp
Bottom Line: We won't know until sometime later.
That said, from a T/A perspective, they really had to fight on Wednesday to get thru the Fibo 50% retracement level.
The 61.8% level, not far above it, is expected to be stiff resistance and many believe we will not get through it on the first attempt. And the buffon put (er blink) line is expected by many to be re-tested.
On the positive-looking side, I'll stack the Zweig data that you presented with comments Lawrence O'Donnell made on Wed night, pretty much saying we now know the insanely calculated tariffs will never happen:
https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/lawrence-trump-backs-down-on-tariffs-after-a-day-of-fearing-elon-musk-might-call-him-a-moron-236996677787
Bottom Line: IMO, this one is different from past, similar drops, in that it is self-induced and a mad man has the keys to the car. So round and round we go, where we stop, nobody knows, until we see what he ultimately does with the keys.

Don’t shoot the messenger and disregarding politics here, my favorite momentum indicator is Zweig’s up volume vs down volume on the NYSE. I have referenced this several times over the years. Most great traders are terrible analysts and most great analysts are terrible traders. That said, one great amateur analyst I know (meaning he does not work for some Wall Street firm) is as bullish as ever based on Wednesday’s action. That day saw a 65 to 1 up volume over down volume on the NYSE - the highest ever. That was greater than the infamous 42 to 1 that launched the greatest bull market of all time on August 18, 1982. With the recent volatility we have seen recently it won’t take long to see if Wednesday was indeed THE day.

Four straight months of decline...I trust the fact that the buffoon was elected five months ago is purely coincidental?
"Fact number 1. Consumer spending is a big driver of the economy."
Yeah, ~68% kinda big!
"Fact number two..."
AI Overview (Read, use at your own peril)
While there's no confirmed immediate threat of de-funding, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) is a crucial economic indicator that faces ongoing scrutiny and funding pressures, according to Advisor Perspectives and CNBC. The CSI's results, which measure consumer confidence and spending expectations, are closely watched by economists and investors due to their influence on economic growth and stock market performance.
Here's a more detailed look:
No Specific De-funding Threat:
While there hasn't been any official announcement or news of the CSI being de-funded, it's important to remember that research funding can be subject to changes and competition.
Importance of the CSI:
The CSI is a vital tool for understanding consumer sentiment, which can significantly impact economic activity. When consumers are optimistic, spending tends to increase, leading to economic growth, according to Investopedia.
Ongoing Scrutiny and Competition:
Research funding is often subject to review and competition, meaning that the CSI, despite its importance, is not guaranteed to remain funded indefinitely, notes Advisor Perspectives.
Alternative Indicators:
It's worth noting that other consumer confidence indices, like the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), also exist and are closely followed, according to
Advisor Perspectives and Investopedia.
In conclusion: While there's no immediate danger of the CSI being de-funded, its ongoing importance and reliance on funding mean that it's constantly subject to review and competition, meaning its future is not entirely guaranteed.
See also...referenced above but did not visible, did not copy/paste accurately:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp

It fell to near historic lows. Fact number 1. Consumer spending is a big driver of the economy. Shouldn’t that eventually translate into lower stock prices in many sectors? Fact number 2. This survey has been conducted for many decades by the University of Michigan and as such hasn’t yet been corrupted by the regime. What do you think the likelihood that U of M’s funding is threatened or pulled in the near future? Too much bad news in a short period of time for anyone to process. It’s the blitz of 25. God luck .

A follow up on this from Reuters today.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/jpmorgan-analyst-says-he-now-tempers-public-comments-us-tariffs-2025-04-11/

The OP is the usual argument I have heard for decades. There's no way to time markets; always stay invested, and eventually it will come back. All true, and what most investors should do.
The author can't guarantee how long it would take to come back to even or how deep the markets would fall.
There are investors who have enough and don't want to lose too much; for them, these generic articles don't have an answer. Most who believe in the above never tried, or tried and failed. It's not easy.
I'm not going to talk about me. There are a couple of traders where we discuss off the board what we do, and these traders have sold prior to every meltdown. What it a miracle? No, it wasn't. But you have to really trade for years to get there. You can't be a successful trader in a matter of days-months.
If you want to do better, start listening to Tom Bowley, he called this decline about 2 months ago, and usually he has been right most times.
============
"Since 1990, forward S&P 500 total returns for 1 yr., 2 yr., 3 yr., 4 yr., and 5 yr.
were always positive whenever the VIX closed above 50."
Where is the catch in the above? Smart authors look back in history and play with their numbers to make a statement to fit their narrative.
Why 50? Why not 45 or 40? All mean very high volatility.
The real question is how long it took an investor's portfolio to get back to equal.
If the SP500 was at 5K, went to 2.5K, and a year later it was at 3K, it is still not back to 5K.
This chart (https://schrts.co/chKgGjNr) from 1999 to 2014 shows you several points where VIX was pretty high over 40 in 2002 and 2003. How long did it take the SP500 to get back to even? Several years to 2007. What happened after 2007? Another 50+% decline, this time VIX was over 50, and again, it took years to get even.
Of course, most also know that the more you go down, the more % you need to go up. We also know that investors lose their cool and sell at the bottom. Many have a plan until they get hit in the face. Emotions are the number one problem for investors.
BTW, buy and hold is also a daily decision of not selling. Who can guarantee that all B&H investors are rational and all traders are fools?

Though FAR, very FAR, from an expert, we use major indexes T/A most times to determine our overall investment strategy, especially our level of stock allocation that is currently comprised of funds. (We do very little indv stock investing, usually only ST trades of Blue Chips.)
Bear Market Investing: After a drop in an index(es) to bear or near bear territory, and especially after the first Fibo retracement level(s) is achieved, support and resistance levels become clearer. Right now the resistance at the 61.8% retracement level is believed to be very strong, while support at the buffoon put level is tenuous at best.
I recently started a thread on Timely T/A (for the same purpose it appears as this thread) but it does not appear to be of much interest to posters here.
That said, the specific T/A that is provided there has confirmed other research/thinking on where/when we will either SELL more (we SOLD 50% of our stock allocation on March 31) and/or redeploy the proceeds from our recent SELLs. Use of T/A helps take any/all emotion out of our trades. We will start executing the planned BUYs/SELLs in the next few days/weeks as the indexes hit targeted levels for the respective trades.