While it is obviously true that distributions dilute NAV on the day of posting, almost all high quality funds prices will revert to mean fairly quickly. PRWCX posted its last dividend on Dec 18, 2023 and NAV fell over 3.5% on the day, but price fully recovered in less than two months.
Actually it took slightly more than two months (until Feb 22) for the price to rise to its record-date price, but let's not quibble over days.
Your theory is that the dividends adds to total return, rather than just "swiping" value from share price. Specifically, PRWCX had "a massive dividend and CG payout in December, putting it squarely back in the pre-tax Total Return lead."
The evidence presented is that PRWCX's price recovered in two months. The problem here is that you have not distinguished between price appreciation due to normal market movement (i.e. peers moving somewhat in tandem) and additional price appreciation due to mean reversion (i.e. recovering price drop when div distributed).
Between Dec
19 (PRWCX ex-date) and Feb 22, PRWCX appreciated from $33.66 to $35.05, for a gain of 4.
13%. (The distribution of $
1.4075 was 4.03% of the record date price.)
For reference, FBALX, from its ex-date of Dec 2
1 to Feb 22 appreciated from $26.8
1 to $28.07, for a gain of 4.70%. (The distribution of 29.
1¢ was
1.08% of the record date price.)
In case the two day difference in the time periods seems problematic, rest assured that it doesn't matter. The price of PRWCX was identical on Dec
19 and Dec 2
1.
As I understand your theory, PRWCX should have appreciated substantially more than FBALX to make up for its larger distribution (4.03% vs
1.08%). But it didn't. PRWCX appreciated roughly the same amount as FBALX; in fact it appreciated about
1/2% less. Normal performance difference between similar funds. Nothing to suggest that the funds were appreciating in part to make up for their ex-div price drops.
Not that this disproves your theory. But it dismisses your numeric data. It would help if you could advance some explanation of why the price of a fund, determined by the prices of over 300 underlying securities, would appreciate merely because it distributed a dividend.
Maybe, perhaps, you could make such an argument for an individual stock (e.g. investors think they're getting value from the div so they bid up the stock price). But such an argument doesn't fly when it comes to mutual funds.