All Smiles in India !
Sensex Surges 600 Points After RBI's Surprise Rate Cut
NDTV | Updated On: January 15, 2015
The BSE Sensex and Nifty surged today by nearly 2 per cent after the Reserve Bank of India in a surprise move cut its main lending rate (repo rate) by 25 basis points.
http://profit.ndtv.com/news/market/article-sensex-surges-600-points-after-rbis-surprise-rate-cut-727417

SBIO follows the Poliwogg Medical Breakthroughs Index, as volatile a collection of SMIDs as I've ever seen. (You couldn't make this stuff up.) Poliwogg has a new CEF in registration, the Poliwogg Regenerative Medicine Fund, with a target launch date of Jan 15! Anyone thinking bubble?

Pimco's PQTDX remains impressive; and for the first time in a very long time we have some of our portfolio in pure cash, awaiting a new home. :)
I note only this fund, as it is one we monitor.
PQTDX compared to a few random funds chart. You may add and remove tickers to compare and move the day slider to 10 for a YTD view.
I am also surprised with the decent positive returns YTD for some managed funds; although it is obvious that not all are having fun, early in 2015.
This is M*'s managed futures list. Click YTD column to sort returns by %.
Take care,
Catch

Here's the link to the .mp3
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/audio/PGVFX_20150113.mp3

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527446/000116204415000043/hagin497201501.htm
497 1 hagin497201501.htm
HAGIN KEYSTONE MARKET NEUTRAL FUND
A series of Cottonwood Mutual Funds
Supplement dated January 14, 2015
to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
each dated June 30, 2014 (as supplemented from time to time)
The below information was provided to shareholders of the HAGIN Keystone Market Neutral Fund (the “Fund”) on or about December 30, 2014. Effective January 14, 2015, the closing date of the liquidation of the Fund is changed to January 23, 2015. All references in the below information to December 30, 2014 and/or January 15, 2015 (the previous liquidation dates) are hereby replaced with January 23, 2015.
* * * * * * * *
The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Cottonwood Mutual Funds (the “Trust”) has approved a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) relating to the HAGIN Keystone Market Neutral Fund (the “Fund”), effective December 16, 2014. HAGIN Investment Management, the Fund’s investment adviser (the “Adviser”), has recommended to the Board to approve the Plan based on its representations of its inability to market the Fund and the Adviser’s indication that it does not desire to continue to support the Fund. As a result, the Board has concluded that it is in the best interest of the Fund’s shareholders to liquidate the Fund.
In connection with the proposed liquidation and dissolution of the Fund called for by the Plan, the Board has directed the Trust’s principal underwriter to cease offering shares of the Fund immediately as of the date of this Supplement. Shareholders may continue to reinvest dividends and distributions in the Fund or redeem their shares until the liquidation.
It is anticipated that the Fund will liquidate on or about December 30, 2014. Any remaining shareholders on the date of liquidation will receive a distribution of their remaining investment value in full liquidation of the Fund. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact your financial advisor directly or the Fund toll-free at 1.877.257.4240.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of any redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
This Supplement, and the existing Prospectus dated June 30, 2014, provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. Both the Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information dated June 30, 2014 have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, are incorporated by reference, and can be obtained without charge by calling the Fund toll-free at 1.877.257.4240.

MPGFX 10 years, +8.56%, top 9th %ile in its group: Large blend.
MAPOX 10 yrs. +7.78%, in top 7th %ile. Balanced, Large Value.
MSCFX 3 years +21.26%, top 1% of group: small blend.
(There's just the three. Upper Midwest regional concentration, but maybe not exclusively, I haven't looked to be sure about that.)
Not bad. What?

FYI: Mairs & Power has 8.4 Billion AUM, which include 5.1 Billion in three mutual funds
Regards,
Ted
http://www.mfwire.com/common/artprint2007.asp?storyID=50611&wireid=2

12 Page Report:
“Looking ahead to 2015, we remain somewhat constructive on equity markets and more cautious on fixed income markets. We are mindful of risks in an environment where growth trajectories and central bank policies both seem to be decoupling.”
—Brian Rogers
market-outlook/global-market-outlook-2015
EM Debt (I assume PREMX might work here)
"We also think that some (EM) bonds denominated in local currencies particularly strong value, although we are very selective about currency exposure. Local currency bonds lagged emerging markets debt denominated in dollars or euros in 2014. We anticipate that the trend toward dollar strength will continue in the near term, creating a potentially attractive entry point for locally denominated debt in the coming months. Emerging markets bonds still present strong value compared with the alternatives and can also have the advantage of relatively low sensitivity to changes in interest rates. We have noticed that institutional investors have been moving into the asset class. This influx of buyers who are more oriented toward the longer term should lend support to emerging markets debt. "

FYI: Yesterday afternoon we highlighted the performance of the S&P 500 and its ten sectors off of the morning highs they put in. With the market taking another leg lower today, below is an updated look at the chart. The green bars represent the one-day change for sectors at their highs yesterday, while the red bars show how much they have declined from those highs. As shown, Materials has been the clear loser with a decline of 3.84%, especially since the sector was up just 0.72% at its highs yesterday. The Financial sector has really taken it on the chin as well over the last two days, falling 3.65% from its highs. The S&P 500 as a whole is now down 3.14% from yesterday's highs, and defensive sectors like Utilities, Consumer Staples and Telecom have held up the best during this pullback.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2015/1/14/sector-performance-since-yesterdays-highs.html?printerFriendly=true

Catch - Your -12 degrees seems to have sparked (maybe a poor choice of words) the energy markets. WTI &Brent jumped around 4% today. Nat gas up 10%. Stay warm.
Take care

Ha...let's trust it will not persist until 2016.
Thanks Joe!

2015 also!
:-)

Aloca in freefall today...continuing the new normal that no good deed goes unpunished.
Financials and oil both off, 2-3%, yet again.
2015 sure starting off on sour note.

@Derf
Cold !!! Well, for coastal Texas.
-12 in our part of Michigan at 6am this morning; but the sky is bright blue and lots of sunshine. High today schedules at +17.
Take care,
Catch

I was wondering if this glut of fuel has been equally felt around the world ?
We're wintering in coastal TX. & gas is around $1.95. On the way down we found gas for $1.67. Refinery in are back yard and paying appr. 17% more !
Good investing, Derf
P.S. Cold & rainy !!

Here we have a group of foreign countries, aided and abetted by the large international oil companies, publicly STATING that that is their very intention, with respect to the US shale oil suppliers. And we can do absolutely nothing about it, in any political, trade, or retaliatory manner?? The future of Ford's truck division is completely at the mercy of Saudi Arabia?? And I hear NOBODY talking about this?? The United States of America has been reduced to this???

I hope this move comes back to bite them hard!
Oil is nothing more than an energy source to power technological systems and a commodity to be traded between producers and users. Lower oil prices may rearrange or remove pieces on the oil checker board, but this may turn out to be a game changer...energy is more like chess. The old guard has chosen to orchestrate lower prices requiring larger production volumes to make up the drop in price. To me, this is unsustainable and a poor long term move for oil. In the meantime, new efficient energy sources continue to be developed.
As a Californian, hydrogen powered cars in 2015 will compete with electric, NG , and hybrid automobiles. Hydrogen's ubiquitousness and environmental friendly footprint may finally move the needle away from oil.
The old guard (oil producers) has preferred checkers to chess. Luckily the world resembles a variety of complex game pieces... much more like chess than checkers. More challenging game, but worth adopting as the new normal.
Some news:
Toyota has released 400 patents to encourage Hydrogen fuel cell technology:
iflscience.com/technology/toyota-follow-tesla-s-footsteps-releasing-its-fuel-cell-patents
Honda & Toyota quietly roll out Hydrogen Cars for 2015:
honda-motor-fuelcells
UTC has been working on Fuel Cell technology for many years:
energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/03/f12/apu2011_7_short.pdf
Problems in Fuel Cell Development:
Fuel cells strip hydrogen atoms of their electrons and investors of their money
Fuel-Cell-Follies-ClearEdge-Going-Bankrupt

Yep, gotten tip your hat to him.
I too enjoyed his views, once again.
Particularly loved the part about jumping in too early on falling commodities and stocks versus doing so with bond. The former, "you can get killed," he says...while the latter you just underperform.
His bleak view of BitCoin, current rendition anyway.
His guidance on contagion...to always be wary of it. Like sub-prime mortgages initially downplayed by Mr. Bernanke.
He's bullish on India long term, cause of demographics.
He thinks natural gas price was more indicative of "right" price for oil than recent $100/barrel crude prices.
It's hard not to listen, since he's on a roll of getting it right lately.
All that said, he's selling bonds.
Which means that either naturally or with intent, he's always building a wall of worry.
For example, US stocks best place to be...but he can't see the gains continuing..."overextended" as he shows only growth since bull began, but not the miserable performance US stocks have suffered for the past 15 years.
For example, continued growth in US, except those regions impacted by low oil.
Wall of worry, expect when comes to raising interest rates. Then, it's more of a warning to Fed on bad consequences if they do so.
Along with a reminder that DoubleLine DBLTX may close soon...but not in 1st quarter.
c

I'm fascinated by the whole oil situation. With almost any other product, anti-dumping, anti-trust, restraint-of-trade and other regulations try to prevent any company or group of companies from cornering a market to the extent that they can drive potential competitors totally out of business.
Here we have a group of foreign countries, aided and abetted by the large international oil companies, publicly STATING that that is their very intention, with respect to the US shale oil suppliers. And we can do absolutely nothing about it, in any political, trade, or retaliatory manner?? The future of Ford's truck division is completely at the mercy of Saudi Arabia?? And I hear NOBODY talking about this?? The United States of America has been reduced to this???

One theory is that ZIRP/ "cheap money" has allowed the oil situation to happen in this country. Many smaller producers were not even making money with oil at higher levels. Companies have become hugely indebted. Here's one example:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=EXXI+Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}
I posted this over the Summer, but had no idea this is how it would wind up.
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/13960/some-concerns-with-the-fracking-theme
So, you did have a lot of production. Now you're going to have oil companies struggle and what's really going to struggle are the services companies, especially if this is a prolonged slump.
I'm stunned that oversupply can manifest itself in a 60% decline in 6 months or so, but perhaps a combination of the end of QE and the idea that OPEC saw what was coming and wanted to maintain control caused a sell-off to snowball to a remarkable degree. Perhaps OPEC has fractured in a similar manner that the potash cartel fractured last year, causing Potash prices to decline and the stocks to tank.
There's also got to be some considerable decline in demand as part of this drop. I mean, look at copper, look at bonds, look at all of these signs that are flashing slowing global growth. The mining companies that are already down near 2008 levels are absolutely tanking this morning.
Overall, perfect storm. However, I do kind of think that there is an element of easy money that built the fracking "revolution" in the first place.
I mean, "While the high-yield debt market has doubled in size since the end of 2004, the amount issued by exploration and production companies has grown nine-fold, according to Barclays Plc. That’s what keeps the shale revolution going even as companies spend money faster than they make it." "...“People lose their discipline. They stop doing the math. They stop doing the accounting. They’re just dreaming the dream, and that’s what’s happening with the shale boom.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-30/shale-drillers-feast-on-junk-debt-to-say-on-treadmill.html
The decline in oil and the ripple effects of that were discussed in very good detail by Gundlach during his presentation yesterday.
I still think the Fed could come back again and I'd be surprised if they raise rates if this gets worse. At the very least, I'm sure FOMC members will be out in force chatting whether money will be easy or not depending on the movement of the day.
December retail sales just came out -1% and the market took a crap. Need moar QE.
Lastly, not necessarily agreeing with the bottom line, but I think this is worth reading:
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=229732

@John. You are correct. But sounds like a "Catch-22". Producers save on production costs as energy prices drop, but this also brings on-stream smaller competitors who were unprofitable at higher energy costs. Net effect: lower aluminum prices which hurt big producers.
Article 1 http://www.wikinvest.com/commodity/Aluminum
Relevant excerpt: "Smelting alumina into aluminum requires a constant, large supply of electricity, which accounts for around 25% of the costs of the entire smelting process. ... a decrease in energy costs can allow previously closed smelters to reopen, which would increase the supply of aluminum and lower prices."
Article 2 : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-27/aluminum-drops-after-oil-prices-slump-to-lowest-in-four-years.html
Relevant Excerpt: "While crude is not the primary source of energy for the aluminum producers, energy accounts for about 30 percent of output costs and falling oil prices may have a deflationary impact..."
-
There's much suggesting auto makers may curtail plans to use more aluminum if oil stays low. Won't bother linking all that. Something forgot to mention earlier is the role of aluminum in shipping and packing containers. Think of the savings derived from transporting aluminum soda or beer cans instead of heavier materials. Won't be immediate. But over time cheaper fuel would reduce that reliance on lighter-weight containers.

FYI: Volatility is in full swing.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/01/14/morning-moneybeat-the-markets-really-swinging-now/tab/print/
Current Futures: http://finviz.com/futures.ashx