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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • US stocks surge as Trump pauses ‘reciprocal’ tariffs for 90 days
    Around 830 ET this morning he tweeted out a plea to BUY.
    Around 4 hours later, he announces the 90-day pause and indices shoot-the-moon.
    In Trumplandia, market manipulation isn't a crime, it's just standard business practice.
    "In the minutes before President Donald Trump's social media post on Wednesday pausing tariffs sent the U.S. stock market rallying, some unidentified options traders placed bets worth millions of dollars that the market would rebound, data shows."
    "The well-timed bets likely paid off handsomely. Now, some Democratic lawmakers are calling for investigations into whether Trump's policy reversal led to any market manipulation or insider trading."
    "Betting on short-term market swings is common and the trades in question could easily have been placed without any prior knowledge of the coming news as traders speculate on a market bounce or hedge against one every day."
    "The Securities and Exchange Commission, which in the past has taken action against insider trading involving options trading, declined to comment."
    https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/well-timed-options-trades-ahead-trumps-tariff-pause-draw-questions-2025-04-10/
  • Current Market Activity: ad infinitum
    Executed 5 separate sales across my basket at Fidelity between 2 and 4 PM Wednesday. Basket has 12 holdings (stocks / CEFs). Had put through 1 buy order earlier in the day and had also bought in the days leading up to Wednesday.. These maga-swings make it tough to stay on top of everything.
  • Levers...
    Sure feels like a ride on the vomit comet. Trying to place buys and sells at Fido as she rocks and rolls …
  • How to Invest During a Bear Market
    Charlie Bilello and Peter Mallouk from Creative Planning discuss "How to invest during a bear market"
    in light of recent market upheaval.
    Over the last 100 years, US bear markets have historically ocurred once every four years on average.
    However, we've had four bear markets in the last seven years.
    Since 1929, bear markets on average lasted 14 months with a range of 1 month to 33 months.
    Corresponding bear market declines averaged -35% with a range of -20% to -86% (Great Depression).
    The recent S&P 500 bear market (from 2/19 high to 4/7 low) was the second fastest bear market in history.
    Only March 2020 was faster.
    The S&P 500 experienced its third largest daily percentage gain since 1950 on 4/9/2025.
    Expect big swings to continue for the foreseeable future.
    You're far more likely to get punished for market timing during a bear market than at any other time.
    The VIX closed above 52 on 4/8/2025.
    Since 1990, forward S&P 500 total returns for 1 yr., 2 yr., 3 yr., 4 yr., and 5 yr.
    were always positive whenever the VIX closed above 50.
    Video
  • U.S. Treasury issues retribution??? What if there is a new tool being considered by foreign holders
    It's time to start calling for Godzilla (Gojira (ゴジラ). We really need his help.
    I noted in the first post of this thread:
    --- MINT, The Pimco Enhanced Short Duration, etf; had the first price down days (Last Friday and last Monday) since late 2022.
    MINT started to stabilize earlier this week....until 'tariff city'. AND now, and especially today (April 10), the MINT price is down -.12% during normal hours, and -.29% after hours.
    What had been a normal full week since December, 2022 of a + gain for one week of about +.06%, each and every week, is now gone. Even Pimco's magic sauce is having difficulty managing whatever is taking place.
    Today, April 10, Thursday ranging from the very short duration through the 20 year duration found a down price range of -.02% through -2.76% for bills, notes and bonds.
    The bleeding continues for etf's: SHY, IEF, AGG, HYG, LQD AND TLT.
    SO, be it not many buyers of UST issues, or too many sellers, or just no buyers or however one wants to present the issue; the undermining continues. What is the STOPPING point ???
    Who or what Federal agency has the knowledge or willingness to step in when the crack in the dam is close to beyond saving from a complete break ???
    Tis time for this fella to meditate.
  • This Time, It Really Is the Tariffs
    Posted the following in another thread.
    Businesses and investors remain bewildered after the 90-day pause on tariffs.
    Clarity is needed to reduce massive uncertainty.
    "White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt tried to characterize the sudden change in policy as part of a grand negotiating strategy. But to those outside the Trump administration, it looked like a cave-in to market pressure and to growing fears that the president’s impetuous use of import taxes — tariffs — would cause massive collateral economic damage."
    "Trump’s ever-changing trade war tactics — which include earlier levies on cars, steel and aluminum, and Mexico and Canada — have already done damage, forcing dazed companies to delay or cancel plans as they tried to figure out what Trump was doing and how they should respond."
    “'Right now, it’s hard to know how this is going to play out, given that this is somewhat self-imposed,' Delta CEO Ed Bastian said. 'I’m hopeful that sanity will prevail and we’ll move through this period of time on the global trade front relatively quickly.'”
    https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-pause-businesses-reaction-a61a1adcaf6332f6188ae1d70664b898
  • Trump administration changes course on in-person requirements for Social Security
    Following are excerpts from a current NPR report:
    The Trump administration is further backing off the in-person requirements it announced for Americans seeking services at the Social Security Administration that were set to go into effect Monday. Liz Huston, a spokesperson for the White House, said in a statement to NPR on Thursday that telephone services will continue for people seeking services through the agency.
    "President Trump has repeatedly promised to protect Social Security and uproot waste, fraud and abuse across the federal government," she said. "The Social Security anti-fraud team has worked around the clock in person to improve technological capabilities and they are now able to identify fraud on claims filed over the telephone."
    Social Security officials first announced last month that people filing claims or seeking benefits would have to travel in-person to a local field office, if they were unable to use the agency's online verification system. The policy would have effectively eliminated widely used telephone services for many beneficiaries.
    These changes were met with concerns from advocates for seniors and people with disabilities, as well as lawmakers. Dozens of Democratic members of Congress sent a letter to agency leaders asking them to reconsider the change because it would "create additional barriers" for people seeking services — "particularly for those who live far from an office."
    According to a White House official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak generally about the Trump administration's position, the Social Security Administration reversed course on these requirements because the anti-fraud team "implemented new technological capabilities so quickly" that the agency can now "perform anti-fraud checks on all claims filed over the phone." These technological improvements, the official said in a statement, will be able to flag abnormal behavior in a person's account and then those individuals who were flagged would be required to travel in-person for verification.
    The Social Security Administration is currently undergoing massive changes – including widespread layoffs, regional office closures and general restructuring of duties across the agency. These changes have worried advocates about access to services that many of the country's seniors rely on.

    Comment: Wow! How impressive that Elon's anti-fraud team "implemented new technological capabilities so quickly": "around the clock, in person" !!
    Who woulda thought? Those guys are really good!
    < /sarc>
  • U.S. Treasury issues retribution??? What if there is a new tool being considered by foreign holders
    Agree with @catch’s assessment on who is selling lots of treasury. The day is still young and this unwinding is far from being done.
    Would you want to buy greenback with so much deficit and it is getting higher with the second Tac Cut Act. Somewhere over trillion of dollars in next ten years.
    Wonder when a downgrade of US Treasury will come? Or should investors should invest in other foreign bonds?
    From October 1993 to November 1994 US 10-year yields climbed from 5.2% to just over 8.0% fueled by concerns about federal spending in what became informally known as the "Great Bond Massacre." With some guidance from Robert Rubin, the United States Secretary of the Treasury, the Clinton administration and Congress made an effort to reduce the deficit, and 10-year yields dropped to approximately 4% by November 1998.
    There was a surplus by the end of Clinton administration. Then came Bush was enacted tax cut that drove the country to have such huge deficits
    today. Most Americans forgotten about Clinton administration’s achievements.
  • This Time, It Really Is the Tariffs
    If only the buffoon knew what AEI's Derek Scissors so concisely explained the other day (that I've posted somewhere) and what any Econ 101 student knows about China tariffs and tariffs in general...
    ...he'd probably still proceed with the insanity.
    You can't make this crap up...
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/trump-acknowledged-he-could-cause-a-recession-but-just-didnt-want-a-depression-according-to-wsj.html
  • This Time, It Really Is the Tariffs
    Guardian:
    The overall US tariff rate on Chinese imports has risen to 145%, a White House official has confirmed to CNBC.
    The increase follows a new executive order from Donald Trump raising tariffs to 125%, up from 84%.
    An additional 20% tariff, tied to measures targeting fentanyl-related imports, brings the total to its current level.
  • U.S. Treasury issues retribution??? What if there is a new tool being considered by foreign holders
    I'll add 'YUP' to this...........
    From October 1993 to November 1994 US 10-year yields climbed from 5.2% to just over 8.0% fueled by concerns about federal spending in what became informally known as the "Great Bond Massacre." With some guidance from Robert Rubin, the United States Secretary of the Treasury, the Clinton administration and Congress made an effort to reduce the deficit, and 10-year yields dropped to approximately 4% by November 1998.
    Clinton political adviser James Carville said at the time, "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody."
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/9/25
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/9/25
    BEARISH remained the top sentiment (58.9%, very high) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (12.5%, very low); bullish remained the middle sentiment (28.5%, low); Bull-Bear Spread was -30.4% (very low). Investor concerns: Tariffs, jobs, budget, debt, inflation, Fed, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (163+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+2 weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds down, oil down, gold down, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 13.03% (oversold*). A historic rally followed after 90-day pause for most tariffs**; exception was China with even higher tariffs. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    Sentiments are CONTRARIAN indicators.
    *Low was 4.59% on 4/8/25.
    **Too late to affect the Survey this week.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1944/thread
  • sane-washing claims carnevale

    for those unfamiliar, chuck carnevale is considered a legend in educating the public on equity fundamentals, despite his self-promotional product placement.
    well this week, he made a fundamental error himself by straying far outside his circle of competence and sane-washing trump tariffs and economics.
    i never imagined to see chuck randomly and carelessly mix past & present shoring and macro events...even referring to the CHIPS act which trump himself blasted !
    for a second, i was almost expecting him to bring up the trump1.0 foxconn and multiple ohio factory wins...which remain mythical.
    for MAGA, tariffs were great when chuck released the video, and every reversal wil be greater still.
  • Nobody Knows (Yet Again) - Howard Marks Memo
    Thanks @Mark.
    I'm a big HM fan.
    @bee posted this interview on 9 April:
    Howard Mark's on Credit Market and tariffs:
    https://youtu.be/KpnUyGM5M-I
  • U.S. Treasury issues retribution??? What if there is a new tool being considered by foreign holders
    April 9, 2025 at 10pm EST
    2, 5, 10 and 30 year Treasury issues are indicating decently lower yields (price appreciation) and hopefully maintaining and improving going into Thursday trading.
    It's all part of his super-jenius Plan, remember.
  • U.S. Treasury issues retribution??? What if there is a new tool being considered by foreign holders
    April 9, 2025 at 10pm EST
    2, 5, 10 and 30 year Treasury issues are indicating decently lower yields (price appreciation) and hopefully maintaining and improving going into Thursday trading.
  • Nobody Knows (Yet Again) - Howard Marks Memo
    Howard Marks piece is dated 4/9/25 & title seems current, but it was a piece written ahead of the huge market moving event of tariff pause today - it isn't mentioned.
    And options market activity showed that somebody knew of the announcement ahead and walked away with boatloads of money - SEC, are you too busy?
    https://www.linkedin.com/posts/william-yii_trump-ugcPost-7315875656888635392-GTVj?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=member_desktop_web&rcm=ACoAAFjCY6wBccxAhzfDGLCwSkfGL97DN413bHU