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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 2015 Market Forecasts from Several Perspectives
    Hi Guys,
    The 2015 edition of the Las Vegas MoneyShow ended a few days ago. I attended only some of their many presentations. I wasn’t motivated to mention my planned attendance because in past years, the MFO membership responded with a deep yawn. That’s okay; I learn.
    One novel aspect to the 2015 general format was the introduction of a Cannabis section that preceded the conventional MoneyShow agenda. The Cannabis sessions were paid events so I did not attend any of these presentations.
    I did not take many notes, but I do have a general takeaway feeling that the professional market wiz-kids expressed relative to the market direction for the remainder of the year. A majority fraction of the experts are guardedly projecting positive returns from a narrowing market.
    They observe that the current narrowing market is typically representative of aging Bull market runs. The present Bull market is third longest in history and will become the second longest if it extends into next year. One reason they are sanguine about the market has to do with the Presidential election cycle.
    Presidential candidates will paint ultra-rosy pictures for their special programs. Louie Navellier jokingly advised that we should vote for the happiest candidate to best extend the likelihood of positive returns. On the negative signal side, Jim Stack cautioned that only 17% of the forecasters see near-term approaching dark clouds. That’s a contrarians warning sign. As usual, we get to choose our own poison.
    For informational purposes, you might be interested in a Bull and Bear market summary paper assembled by Ed Yardeni. Here is a Link to that 10-page summary:
    http://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf
    I did make a note of one interesting observation made by one of the MoneyShow exhibitors (I didn’t record his name). He noticed that the S&P 500 dividend exceeded the 10-year Treasury bond yield for a brief period in mid-January. Apparently that’s an extremely rare happening. He reported that whenever that did occur, the stock market rewarded investors with high payoffs.
    Here is a Link to a January MarketWatch article that examined this occurrence:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-dividend-yields-are-above-treasury-yields----and-thats-bullish-2015-01-20
    If the article has been posted earlier, I apologize. I completely missed it. Sorry Ted.
    The three earlier occurrences are really insufficient to make grand statistical inferences, but the next year outsized rewards for these events were eye-popping. More fuel for the fire. Good luck guys integrating these data into your decision making.
    Best Regards.
  • Art Cashin - Watch the US 10 year (he didn't say it-I did)
    Bwahaha, Dex's belief in the 10-yr T @ 1%, the dweam that will never die. :)

    Mmmmmm...forgetting things...Donepezil
    Not in Art's league but,
    Gundlach says benchmark 10-year Treasury yield could fall to 1 percent
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/10/us-investing-gundlach-interview-idUSKBN0JO05O20141210
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^TNX+Interactive#{"range":"2y","showPrePost":false}
  • Art Cashin - Watch the US 10 year (he didn't say it-I did)
    Bwahaha, Dex's belief in the 10-yr T @ 1%, the dweam that will never die. :)
  • Art Cashin - Watch the US 10 year (he didn't say it-I did)
    I think the US 10 year is on its way down again - this could be the trip to the 1% area.
    Like Art there will be no looking back to see if I'm correct!
  • A query on American Funds
    The lowest cost American funds are the "R" class that are available in 401(k) and 403(b). Otherwise they are set up for advisors, not generally no-load mutual funds for small retail investors. There is nothing magical about the American funds and there are always viable alternatives.
  • Are Stocks Overpriced ?
    @Bob C. Great to have you back again! Reminds me of an old 1920's Ma Rainey jazz song: "Honey, where you been so long?". :)
  • A query on American Funds
    Like other great sales organizations, American Funds has made sure there is a product to fit every imaginable opportunity. Different combinations of front, back, and ongoing commissions; different ERs; 12b-1s and no 12b-1s. Crazy, you say? American is laughing all the way to the bank.
  • Are Stocks Overpriced ?
    Right now I am overweight foreign equities (40% US, 31% foreign) because of more attractive valuations and, more importantly, those countries are in the midst of QE whereas we are at the end of our QE. I continue to like lower volatility foreign plays like MINIX, EFAV and GLIFX/GLFOX.
    Kevin
  • Are Stocks Overpriced ?
    Re foreign equity funds:
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/01/16/investing-international-funds/21825245/
    Both supports (sort of) and modulates what Sven posted. As OAKIX and SGOIX are closed, recommendations are interesting.
    Wagg has moved on to other venues.
  • Short-Term Investing Gets Complicated
    I wonder if defined maturity bond indexes could be made to work in the mix? Not the HY varieties, but rather the corp bond varieties. They better allow for more discrete control of duration, and have reduced volatility, vis-a-vis conventional bond indexes of comparable maturities. Or would this lead to "being too cute by half," a bunch of extra work and not getting all that much more from it?
    http://www.etf.com/sections/etf-issuer-perspective/defined-maturity-indexes-combining-best-attributes-bonds-and-funds?nopaging=1
    https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/Home/BulletShares?source=ETFcombs
    I'm thinking here of the BulletShare 0-3yr corp bond index (maybe combined with 0-3 and/or 0-5yr corp Ladder index). Something like that; pick the proportions for each.
    update/add-on: conceptually, I would be looking at an allotment to these as a CD-substitute. I haven't checked out their yields; if they suck, then what would be the point? However, if they are equal or better, then advantage to the ETF; and, unlike the CD, you could redeem them whenever, if interest rates rose and you wanted to change course, without penalty (assuming the underlying index hadn't changed too much in value).
  • Are Stocks Overpriced ?
    I think foreign stocks are in better position in the near term:
    1. trading at more favorable PEs
    2. Europe and Japan are in early phase of recovery (however slow) and better chance of further earning expansion than that of US.
  • Zacks: TOTL Hits $500 Million in AUM - ETF News And Commentary
    FYI: Long-term bond investment had an impressive 2014 to the supremacy of risk-off trade sentiments in the wake of global growth concerns. On the other hand, short-term bonds gave a rather tepid show last year on speculations that the Fed would hike interest rates soon.
    Short end of the yield curve rose faster than the long end, and the spread between both yields narrowed to start 2015 as well. Though flattening of the curve is expected to be witnessed once the Fed hikes key rates, volatility is buoyant in the bond market (read: Profit from a Flattening Yield Curve with This ETF).
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/175990/totl-hits-500-million-in-aum
    M* Snapshot TOTL: http://www.morningstar.com/etfs/ARCX/TOTL/quote.html
    TOTL Is Unranked In The (GB) ETF Fund Category By U. S. News & World Report::
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/etfs/general-bond-funds/spdr-doubleline-total-return-tactical-etf/totl
  • Columbia Funds
    401-k will be leaving two of their funds in the near future. I'm glad to report I had zero dollars in either one !
    Derf
  • Columbia Funds
    Reviving an older thread: I uncovered a M* Fund Times May 1, 2015, article on management shakeup at Acorn Funds. Robert Mohn is retiring (unexpectedly) as domestic chief investment officer in 4th quarter 2015, and several experienced analysts left in 2013-2015. M* is putting the Acorn funds under review.
    Recent poor performance of ACRNX led to about 40% of assets being withdrawn in 12 months leading up to May 1 article.
    Link, must sign in to view:
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=696099
  • A query on American Funds
    I've held several AF's since 2006 and been very pleased with them. They're fairly straight-shooters as a company and I have no qualms with them other than the A-class loads[1] and how many share classes they've sliced themselves into. I also hold some very low-cost R-6 funds of theirs in my university 403(b)....no problems there, either.
    [1] Advisor put me into several of them as part of a 70-30 split as we redid the portfolio that year w/a new firm. I put 70% into individual equities, he put 30% into funds. Knowing what I know now, and with performance aside, I'm not sure I would pay the loads myself, nowdays, however.
  • Short-Term Investing Gets Complicated
    @JohnC, For cash sleeve here are my thinking:
    1. Saving accounts pay little (actually negative after inflation) but they are flexible.
    2. Short term investment grade bonds yield 1.5 - 1.6%. VFSUX and VSCSX for example. Minimal duration impact from rising rates.
    3. Balanced funds yield > 2.5%. Prefer VWIAX, but higher risk with intermediate term bond exposure (65% in the fund).
    @Bee, thanks for sharing your insights.
  • A query on American Funds
    I agree with Desota - I would be quite surprised if you could get an R-class share outside of an employer-sponsored retirement plan.
    When American Funds came out with class F shares (now called F-1), they were available not only through advisors, but through some offbeat discount brokers (e.g. Citicorp Investment Services - doesn't exist any more). Later, when American Funds added F-2 (same as F-1 but w/o 12b-1 fee), they seemed to tighten up on access to the F-1 shares.
    Nevertheless, there appear to be a few access points remaining. I don't know how useful any of this will be, but here's what I know about those access points.
    Several HSA (Health Savings Accounts) offer access to a limited number of mutual funds (i.e. they have a menu, like an employer's 401(k) plan does). Among these offerings one can often find one or two American Funds (class F-1). For example, here's the fund list from HSA Bank.
    Some HSAs offer brokerage options, and these tend to be treated as retirement accounts or institutional accounts, rather than generic retail accounts. As such, they seem to offer greater access to some investments. Many of these HSA accounts use TDAmeritrade as the brokerage partner, and it looks like AMPFX (AMCAP F-1) may be available that way, NTF, despite a search on the brokerage site turning up a page saying the fund is not available for sale there.
    Another back door is via a no load VA. What you get there are usually clones of the retail funds, but that's often close enough. You can access the American Funds Insurance Series VA funds through Jefferson National Monument Advisor VA. There isn't a clone for AMCAP, but there is one for Growth Fund of America.
    Finally, there's the solution for the high rollers - dump $1M into American Funds, and you can get their A shares without a load. (Though there's a 1% redemption fee if you sell within a year.) If you're investing that much, you're probably not worrying about whether there's a transaction fee.
  • WealthTrack: Guest: Tom Russo
    legalcool.com/lawyers/Pennsylvania/Lancaster/17602/1vlm/Thomas-Adrian-Russo.html
    Sooooo.......WTF?!
    Just what are we here and do we have time for all of this. Maybe that's why we have a buy and hold portfolio, eh?
  • A query on American Funds
    The R class is for 401k plans. The F2 is only available through advisors charging a wrap fee. A shares are your best bet but would be a waste at fidelity as you are paying a 12b1 fee which goes to an FA. I hold A shares through EJ.
  • A query on American Funds
    This fund company seems to take the flavor vanilla and slice it 12 ways to Sunday.
    A mere one fund is offered also as:
    image
    I compared AMCPX and RAFGX. RAFGX is a R6 shares class has a low minimum (as they all do) and an ER that is half the A share class (AMCPX). AMCPX also comes with a 5% load.
    How do investors make a choice between all these flavors?
    I'm looking for a brokerage platforms that offer the cheapest share class of American Funds that offers these shares NTF (No Transaction Fee). R6 share (in this case RAFGX) seem to be the cheapest through my brokerage, but I have to cough up the transaction fee.