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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Social Security C.O.L.A. for 2025 at 2.5% increase/ADDED calculations
    From linked article:
    ”But the index tracks a range of goods and services that are purchased primarily by younger working people, not by retirees, who often spend more of their income on housing and health care. The costs experienced by Americans over age 62 tend to outpace the index, Ms. Ghilarducci said, making the annual adjustment fall short of what retirees actually need.
    “The adjustment is often mostly eaten up by the increase in Medicare Part B premiums, which are automatically deducted from Social Security checks. Some experts, including Ms. Ghilarducci, say Social Security beneficiaries also need an increase in their base-line benefits to maintain their buying power.”
    What becomes clear with the medical issue is if you live long enough costs increase at a faster and faster rate.
    d
    hank in Other Investing
  • The Great Government Transfer-mation
    @bee +1 Let me add , it seems to me that the list of taxes continues grow !!
    Yup, and the invention of "user fees" where there were none.
    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • Social Security C.O.L.A. for 2025 at 2.5% increase/ADDED calculations
    Maybe @msf could check my math and simplify further
    Eyeballing (mentally multiplying $12K by yogi's 1.3+x to get approximately $15.6K+), things look about right.
    It's been a looong time since I graded math papers. I'm not restarting now :-)
    msf in Other Investing
  • Why Stay in Medigap Plan F?
    I assume my deductible and my copay are additive ($200 +$1800 = $2000). At that point the cost of meds are fully coverage by my plan...whoopie!

    Yup. Took me years to understand the interplay between copays, deductibles, and out of pocket max's, especially when there are some payments that don't count against that max. But I was much younger and inexperienced in the ways of convoluted insurance back then.
    That's quite a load you're carrying. Once one goes over $100/mo for MA it is worth a look at original Medicare plus Medigap + Part D (drugs). That will cost even more than the $1200/yr MA you're facing, but you could come out ahead if you are hospitalized or have lots of copays or coinsurance charges. Depends on health and expectations. No one size fits all.
    Don't know about Costco's hearing service, but we've been very happy with Costco's eye services. Note that the optometrist uses Costco space but is operating independently (and takes credit cards brands in addition to Visa). The opticians are part of Costco.
    BTW, the terms of art are:
    copay - fixed amount (e.g. $20 for a doctor visit)
    coinsurance - percentage amount (e.g. 20% of contracted rate for a doctor visit under original Medicare)
    cost sharing - any arrangement such as the above where the insurer pays part and you pay part
    msf in Other Investing
  • The Great Government Transfer-mation
    @bee +1 Let me add , it seems to me that the list of taxes continues grow !!
    Derf in Other Investing
  • Cambria TAX ETF may launch in December
    Hi Ben. Thanks for the comments. Faber spoke in terms of “small investors” in the interview I watched, so the mention of $500,000 surprised me. Fortunately, the video is already available on Bloomberg. Scroll ahead to 16:00 if anyone wants to view. It’s the last of several segments on etfs.

    I suspect Meb is a bit of a publicity hound. I’ve been listening to a trove of his old podcasts going back several years (The Meb Faber Show) for a month on a regular basis. These consist mostly of hour-long interviews with different money managers. 1 is 3 is pretty good. I don’t need to tell people that Cambria has more losers than winners. Or that it is very small player in a field of giants. That said, I like their global allocation fund (GAA) and have owned it a while - primarily for the exposure it provides to foreign markets, precious metals, commodities and bonds - although it is broader than just that.
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • Why Stay in Medigap Plan F?
    wonder how much Prolia costs here (did not drill down):
    https://www.pocketpills.com/drug/prolia
    One can't drill down without a Canadian address - signing up requires one to enter a province name.
    GoodRx shows pricing between $1,700 and $1,800 per dose (two doses per year).
    Though not listed as a specialty drug in formularies, it is obtained from a specialty pharmacy that ships it to a doctor's office. It is refrigerated.
    Also, as @Crash said, even if you could get Prolia on the side, you wouldn't get credit for it against your $2000 out of pocket drug cap.
    msf in Other Investing
  • Why Stay in Medigap Plan F?
    Zero or low costs for all our meds too (Optum, Costco, CVS)
    The good news is that starting in 2025, drug costs will be capped at $2,000, so exposure isn't unlimited.
    I am learning (first year of Medicare) that there are payment phases with Part D.
    The Premium - (in my case, it is embedded in my Medicare Advantage Premium)
    The Deductible - (Full out of pocket Cost of the RX up to a specific $...in my case $200)
    The Co-payment - (A percentage of the RX cost based on the tier of the drug up to a $ Amount... in my case, $2000).
    I assume my deductible and my copay are additive ($200 +$1800 = $2000). At that point the cost of meds are fully coverage by my plan...whoopie!
    For 2025:
    All must pay for:
    Medicare Part B - which looks like it will be about $185/M (plus IRMAA adjustments)
    Next select between:
    - A Supplemental Plan (Some may include benefits for hearing, eye care... maybe even dental?) or
    - Medicare Advantage Plan (Hearing, Eye care , Dental or Part D may be included)
    Select a Part D Plan (Costs = Premium + as much as $2K of deductibles and co-pays)
    Some Non - required Coverage I plan on having:
    - Dental (My local Dentist offers an in house care plan) - $280 - Covers basic Care - 2 cleanings, x-rays, exams
    - Hearing (Hearing Tests and Hearing aid allowances) - I found that Costco or Easter Seals in our area offered affordable services
    - Eyecare (Eye Tests and Eye glass allowances) - I found that Costco offered affordable services
    Snapshot of maximum Health care costs for 2025:

    Part B= ($185*12) = $2,220
    Medicare Advantage = $1200 (Includes Part D Premium) + Max $2000 Medical Deductible + Part D Potential out of Pocket Max cost of $2000
    Dental Plan - $280 (50% discount of other procedures)
    All of the above costs are close to $7700
    In years where I have mostly Wellness visits I would have costs close to $3700
    Most of this is HSA eligible for reimbursement so I will have decisions to make on how I manage that account going forward.
    Lots to continue to learn and do.
    bee bee in Other Investing
  • Why Stay in Medigap Plan F?
    Zero or low costs for all our meds too (Optum, Costco, CVS)
    Drug plans often get little attention when comparing MAPD plans. For most people there's little difference - generics, preferred or otherwise, are either "free" or dirt cheap on most plans. But when it comes to brand name drugs, the difference between plans can be huge.
    Over the past few years, drug plans, both Part D and MAPD, have been moving from copay (flat amount per item) to coinsurance (percentage cost). Brand name drugs with four (or more) digit costs are becoming way more expensive.
    Consider Prolia, a brand name drug used by many for osteoporosis. (I know a few people using it.) Plans typically list it as a tier 4 (brand name, non-preferred) drug. The manufacturer gives its list price (wholesale acquisition price) as $1,786.12. It is injected twice yearly.
    Tufts Preferred Access PPO charges 50% for tier 4 drugs. That would come to $1,786 yearly. (Medicare.gov says $1,62x).
    BC/BS Blue SaverRx charges 49% copay for tier 4 drugs. That comes out about the same as Tufts. (Medicare.gov says $1,59x.)
    Or you could get a BC/BS PPO plan that charges just $285/dose ($570/year), but it comes with an $87/mo premium. The all in cost is about the same, at $1,614.
    One point here is that what looks like an obvious candidate can instantly become dubious depending on one's individual situation.
    Another point is that drugs can shift the whole landscape, even tilting it toward MA plans.
    Medicare.gov shows no Part D policy charging under $1,900 in Boston when one includes Prolia. But it reports that Mass General Brigham PPO's all in cost, including Prolia, is "just" $600/year. That's a $1,300 difference.
    One might be willing to pay the cost of a Medigap plan for the peace of mind that comes with Original Medicare. Many people are. But adding yet another $1,300 on top of that due to Part D costs could give one pause. The good news is that starting in 2025, drug costs will be capped at $2,000, so exposure isn't unlimited.
    msf in Other Investing
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    Blog - https://bilello.blog/2024/the-week-in-charts-10-14-24
    Item 4 discusses the cumulative increase in major CPI categories over the past 4 years and shows Medical care at 8% and Auto insurance at 60%. Why are we measuring Medical care, rather than Medical insurance? My medical insurance probably went up 60%. I already know my next year medical premium increase is 15%. CPI probably has measurement problem.
    Item 8. US HY Credit spreads at 2.89% is the lowest since 2007. SPY dividend yield at 1.27%(tied with Q4 2021) is the lowest since 1999. Nothing to see here?
    BaluBalu in Other Investing
  • Social Security C.O.L.A. for 2025 at 2.5% increase/ADDED calculations
    what age groups purchase what?
    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/10/business/social-security-benefits-increase-2025.html
    davidrmoran davidrmoran in Other Investing
  • Social Security C.O.L.A. for 2025 at 2.5% increase/ADDED calculations
    Hi @bee Thank you.
    Perhaps my wording is not the best today for the numbers listed. Yes, one would still receive the $1,000/month today as was in 2014; but the purchasing power in 2024 is greatly reduced.
    We both agree and understand my elementary illustration and how inflation BITES into monies not protected with a COLA or investments.
    catch22 catch22 in Other Investing
  • Social Security C.O.L.A. for 2025 at 2.5% increase/ADDED calculations
    @catch22 - Using your Calculator
    Timeframe
    2014 - 2024
    No COLA
    ($1000/M *12) = $12K in 2014 is still $12K in 2024
    With COLA
    ($1000/M *12) = $12K in 2014 adjusts to $15,984 in 2024
    I think you adjusted the non-COLA pension ($670*12) to get $8040 which is the buying power, not the actual 2024 pension payment of $12K.
    Remember, with the COLA adjusted pension of $15,984, you would maintain the buying power of $12K while the non-COLA loses to inflation every year.
    In other words, in 2024:
    A COLA adjusted pension maintains its 2014 buying power of $12K ($15,984 in today's dollars), while a non-COLA adjusted Pension lost 33.2% of its buying power making ($12K in today's dollars) "worth" only $8040.
    Maybe @msf could check my math and simplify further
    bee bee in Other Investing
  • Social Security C.O.L.A. for 2025 at 2.5% increase/ADDED calculations
    The SSA COLA uses CPI-W, not the common CPI (really, CPI-U). The SSA even publishes quarterly averages for CPI-W and Q3 averages are used in COLA calculations.
    So,
    2014/Q3 234.242
    2014/Q3 308.729
    10-yr ratio 1.3179916
    So, 1,000/mo in 2014 will become 1,317.99/mo (to be paid from January 2025). That is close to $1,332/mo from the common CPI calculator.
    https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/avgcpi.html
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing
  • Old news? Fido data breach in Aug. news item.
    Nobel Prize for Economics sheds light on functioning institutions and their relationship with the people -
    https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/14/business/nobel-prize-economics-acemoglu-johnson-robinson/index.html
    BaluBalu in Other Investing
  • The Great Government Transfer-mation
    @bee I'm not sure I like the wording, "government transfers." I take it as a gift from the gov., which most of it isn't. VA Benny's all earned as is my SS monthly check.
    It's a very interesting topic and can appear convoluted. Couldn't an argument be made that we (the public) transfer more of our money to the government than we did years ago?
    Take the lottery for example. I see this as both public/government transfer. Wish I was on the winning end of the these transfers.
    Taxes are public transfers to the government that hopefully become government transfers to build bridges and roads, fund public safety and education, arm the military. Let's not forget the government transfers that pay for a growing number of government salaries.
    Others:
    SS= runs partially on (earned income) public transfer - it needs to balance out with future public transfers = or > government transfer to SS recipients.
    Medicare = Pooled Public transfers "in" by way of premium payments...shared payment out by way of government payments and public co-payments for medical services.
    Medicaid = Appears a one way Government Transfer out, but there must be a public funding source for medicaid, right?

    How does Medicaid financing work?
    Medicaid financing is shared by states and the federal government with a guarantee to states for federal matching payments with no pre-set limit. The percentage of costs paid by the federal government varies for specific services and types of enrollees and depending on whether the costs are for medical care or program administration.
    The federal share of spending for services used by people eligible through traditional Medicaid, which includes individuals who are eligible as children, low-income parents, because of disability, or because of age (65+), is determined by a formula set in statute. The formula is designed so that the federal government pays a larger share of program costs in states with lower average per capita income. The resulting “federal medical assistance percentage” or “FMAP” varies by state and ranged from 50 percent to 78 percent for FFY 2023 (Figure 5).
    States can use provider taxes and IGTs (intergovernmental transfers) to help finance the state share of Medicaid. States have some flexibility to use funding from local governments or revenue collected from provider taxes and fees to help finance the state share of Medicaid within certain limits and rules. Provider taxes are an integral source of Medicaid financing, comprising approximately 17% of the nonfederal share of total Medicaid payments in SFY 2018 according to the Government Accountability Office (GAO). All states (except Alaska) have at least one provider tax in place and many states have more than three (Figure 8). The most common provider taxes are on nursing facilities (46 states) and hospitals (44 states). As of July 1, 2022, 32 states including DC also reported at least one provider tax that is above 5.5% of net patient revenues, which is close to the maximum federal safe harbor or allowable threshold of 6%. Federal action to lower that threshold or eliminate provider taxes, as has been proposed in the past, would therefore have financial implications for many states.
    The most common Medicaid provider taxes in place in FY 2022 were taxes on nursing facilities (46 states), followed by taxes on hospitals (44 states), intermediate care facilities for individuals with intellectual disabilities (33 states), and MCOs7 (18 states).
    https://kff.org/report-section/medicaid-budget-survey-for-state-fiscal-years-2022-and-2023-provider-rates-and-taxes/
    Bottom line, we pay more today in public transfers to local, county, state, and federal governments so they can orchestrate these transfers out.
    I might imagine that years ago a larger proportion of these transfers and services happened between the public and private organizations - churches, non-profits and philanthropy.
    IMHO we have grown governments along with the growth of these government transfers.
    Maybe its time to review the role of government regarding both sides of these transfers.
    bee bee in Other Investing
  • Social Security C.O.L.A. for 2025 at 2.5% increase/ADDED calculations
    The source link for these rough calculations is below. If anyone has another method of calculation; please let us know. The calculator uses a standard CPI government number. Whether you agree or not; this is the method used for various COLA's to the best of my knowledge. Having a COLA for a pension or SS is valuable. For those fortunate enough to have a pension, let alone a COLA; you should be 'happy'.
    I'll use 10 years looking back, to present, as a sample; with $1,000 as a base number.
    YES, there numerous types of CPI; including formulas that do not use government methods.
    IF one had SS or a pension paying $1,000/month in 2014, then the following numbers seem to apply:
    --- Pension, no COLA: One still has a $1,000 monthly payment, but the 'purchasing power is NOW $670 from 10 years ago .
    --- Pension w/COLA: One's monthly payment may now be in the range of $1,332.
    *** A very large gap in those two numbers in 2024, eh?
    Annual in 2024:
    Pension w/o COLA = $8,040
    Pension w/COLA = $15,984
    Compounding operates in two directions !!!
    HEY, I/we need to know if there is a large mistake with this math.
    Calculator source
    catch22 catch22 in Other Investing
  • Why Stay in Medigap Plan F?
    @msf Appreciate the detailed explanation. All of the gory details and granular ins-and-outs and contingencies and add-ons and options, etc. only show what a broken non-system we have. Thanks for the corrections, too. Yes, Single-Payer, gummint-operated stuff will be, no doubt, a cluster-flop, too. ... Dental is not included, though. And I still do better getting some of my 'scripts via Canada.
    I am so confused to read complaints like this from someone in Massachusetts and others about costs and screwups. Depending on Mass. county, Tufts and BCBS alike (nonprofits, or so they say) offer MA policies that are zero-premium, include (at least Tufts) serious, meaning $1500, dental prepaid card, modest eyeglasses and less-modest ($240) OTC benefits, and on and on. No referrals, huge network (or so it seems for our many docs).
    My wife and I switched to Tufts Access PPO a year ago and have never given any care a second thought, even after I was hit by a car and needed all sorts of expensive care. BCBS has something similar and competitive.
    Zero or low costs for all our meds too (Optum, Costco, CVS).
    I am studying 2025 details to see what is going to get worse. But anyone in Mass. who has not delved at least Tufts Access PPO may be missing out bigtime.
    davidrmoran davidrmoran in Other Investing
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    I saw an S&P target of 8,000 by the end of the decade from a perma bull. While that number looks big, it is only about 33% over the next six years. That comes to about 5% per year or 6% inclusive of dividends and an equity risk premium of only 2% at the current 10 yr yield of 4.10%. I am tempted to reduce equity exposure in favor of high yield corporate bond fund(s) yielding at 6+%.
    BaluBalu in Fund Discussions
  • August MFO Ratings & Flows Posted
    Just posted all ratings and flows to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 11 October, reflecting risk and return metrics thru 3Q24, as applicable.
    Charles Charles in MFO Premium