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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    @BaluBalu - thanks for re-introducing agency bonds into discussion. Still, 3-month continous calls? So the investment is constantly prone to being called. I’ll pass on that option. Here are a few I’m pondering. I like that at least they have a guaranteed payment period:
    3133ERT50
    FMLB 5.9% 2045 call - 1/26
    3130B1J81
    Federal Home Loan Bank 5.7% due 6/12/2036 Callable 06/26@100
    3130B4AJ0
    Federal Home Loan Banks Cons Bd 5.375%44 5.375% due 12/27/2044 Callable 12/27@100
    Your thoughts?
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Look at this interesting CUSIP 3134HA3J0, a 10 yr Agency
    It is callable every three months from the issue date, 1/22. It offers a 6% interest rate if it does not get called on 7/22/2025 or 4/22/2025. If it gets called on either of those dates, the interest rate is 5%.
    Interesting way to dare potential customers to make interest rate bets.
    The total amount offered is $10M but I have seen on previous occasions an offer being withdrawn before full subscription.
    Today, it is available both at Fido and Schwab. The above interest rate detail is not available at Schwab.
    Please post if you subscribe to this issue. I am thinking about it.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Hi Derf,
    ARDBX has an inception date of 05/16/2022 so it does not yet have a 3 year history.
    2023 performance - top 8% return in Foreign Small/Mid Blend category
    2024 performance - top 11% return in Foreign Small/Mid Blend category
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/ardbx/performance
    @David_Snowball wrote about ARDBX in Sept. 2023.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2023/09/artisan-international-explorer-ardbx-arhbx/
    FWIW, our choice in that Cat is BISAX, available NTF at VG.
    It's arguably Best in (That) Class since its inception on 01/31/12.
    Growth of $10K since ARDBX inception** on 05/16/22:
    BISAX: $12,361
    ARDBX: $10,609
    ** = See also (albeit very dated) https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/?s=bisax for additional MFO review of BISAX.
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    Several large banks reported healthy earning on 1/15/25. This helped to move the market upward. Depending on the source, the interpretation of CPI is different ?
    Unsure whether bonds are better opportunities than stocks in light of the high valuation? Feel like the time period prior to the 2000’s internet bubble.
  • Record $1 trillion + inflow into ETFs in 2024 - WSJ
    Even with careful instructions to the broker, if the fund sponsor doesn't approve, you may not be able to do a tax-free exchange from one share class to another of the same fund.
    I ran into this with a Blackrock fund. I had service class shares. Then Fidelity made the A shares NTF (load waived, no fee). Those shares had a slightly lower ER. I asked Fidelity to do a non-taxable exchange.
    Fidelity checked with Blackrock and told me that Blackrock would not permit that. I would have to sell and buy (and recognize gain on the sale).
    When an OEF converts to ETF, that can be tax-free in most cases.
    Typically, restructurings are nontaxable events. When PIMCO converted its D class shares into A class shares, that was a nontaxable event.
    https://riaconnection.axosadvisorservices.com/uploads/6/5/8/0/65802149/2018.03.23_pimco_share_class_conversion_d_to_a.pdf
    More notoriously, Vanguard did a tax-free merger of its institutional and retail target date funds (different funds, not different share classes) after making changes (changing ERs) that triggered huge cap gains distributions.
    https://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2022/04/ny-times-holders-of-vanguard-target-funds-file-class-action-over-massive-capital-gain-tax-bills.html
    Vanguard could have first merged the funds, then lowered the fees, the suit says. If the process had proceeded in that order, the lawyers argued, there would have been no flood of fund sales and no tax shock for retail investors.
  • Record $1 trillion + inflow into ETFs in 2024 - WSJ
    Looking at the total assets of OEFs and ETFs (ICI data) as of 11/2024,
    OEFs 73.42%, ETFs 26.58%.
    But there are record amounts in the money-market funds, 16.92% of the total OEF + ETF assets, but that's all in OEFs, nothing in ETFs. Taking out the money-market funds (i.e. only stocks, bonds and alternatives),
    OEFs 68%, ETFs 32%. (ex-money-market funds)
    Amazing for the ETFs that have existed only since 1990s, while the OEFs go back to 1920s.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/15/25
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/15/25
    BEARISH remained the top sentiment (40.6%, high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (25.4%, low); neutral became the middle sentiment (34.0%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -15.2% (low). Investor concerns: Budget, debt, inflation (CPI +2.9%, PPI +3.3%), the Fed, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (151+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (66+ weeks; a cease fire seems close). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up (volatile), bonds up, oil up, gold up, dollar flat. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 39.43% (negative). Short-selling firm Hindenburg Research is shutting down - another casualty of the bull market? #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1833/thread
  • Record $1 trillion + inflow into ETFs in 2024 - WSJ
    ”Investors plowed more than $1 trillion into U.S.-based exchange-traded funds in 2024, shattering the previous record set three years ago and raising Wall Street hopes for an even bigger year ahead. Longer-term trends also played a role as investors extended a yearslong practice of swapping their mutual funds for the greater tax advantages and easy trading of ETFs. Total assets in U.S.-based ETFs reached a record $10.6 trillion at the end of November, according to monthly ETFGI data, an increase of more than 30% from the start of 2024.”
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/bc87aa1f-2106-3dc9-9dd4-533c498e5ead/a-record-shattering-1.html
    I shall be telling this with a sigh
    Somewhere ages and ages hence

    (Robert Frost)
  • Morningstar Discussions Chaos
    I left M* Legacy tab open for a while and it had this message:
    504 Gateway Timeout ERROR
    The request could not be satisfied.
    We can't connect to the server for this app or website at this time. There might be too much traffic or a configuration error. Try again later, or contact the app or website owner.
    If you provide content to customers through CloudFront, you can find steps to troubleshoot and help prevent this error by reviewing the CloudFront documentation.
    Generated by cloudfront (CloudFront) HTTP3 Server
    Request ID: Db_eR4Ko9tprNz11KMyzEQDZV5c45H06Dek7KWEgf3Q51GP0Qs025Q==
  • Alert for Vanguard investors who have a Automatic RMD Withdrawal set up for 2025
    Or you could just calculate the amount yourself on one of the dozens of free calculators available online and then make a note on your calendar for the day you intend to pull it.
    Or say, “Hey Siri: Remind me to …..”
    If you’re able to manage your multi-million dollar diversified investment portfolio on your own, remembering to pull the RMD shouldn’t be that challenging! :)

    Hello hank,
    I do calculate my RMD myself each year. You are correct, it is not a very challenging process. I have always had it set up with VG to also calculate it and to withdraw it on a set date. I do this so that just in case it would slip my mind or if something were to happen to me it would be done on time and my wife would not have to deal with it.
    The point to the OP is that the RMD was correctly set up for 2025, and then a few days later was deleted for some unknown reason. If I had not paid attention to the second letter, I could have had a big problem at the end of this year, since the withdrawal was scheduled for late December. The correction was done with a simple phone call. I only wanted to alert other investors that this could possibly happen to anyone and suggest they check their scheduled RMDsl.
  • How to Pay Next-to-Nothing in Taxes During Retirement
    @stillers,
    Please indulges us with your "pay no tax" strategies.
    With your RMDs being 16 years away and retirement starting in 2012 or at age 45, I am all ears.
    Congratulations.
    Thanks!
    Let me correct your dates. Sorry if my post was confusing on that!:
    Retired in 2012 at Age 56
    RMDs will start in 2029 at Age 73 (unless gov't pushes back further)
    Paid ZERO FIT 2013-2024 (12 years)
    Plan to (and very likely will) pay ZERO FIT/SIT 2025-2028 (4 years)
    Total ZERO FIT/SIT period (16 years)
    Strategy was pretty simple (but takes a while to explain!):
    Starting with first professional employments in 1980, got as much $ as humanly possible into tax-deferred accounts. We were DINKS, Double Income, No Kids.
    ONLY worked for companies that had defined benefit pension plans as a bene. Collectively had four professional jobs and four defined benefit pension plans between the two of us between 1980-2012. Annually maxed out 401k's and 403b's and all other investable monies went to Roth IRAs.
    Rolled all possible Pension monies to IRAs upon termination of service to control when we receive income. Final employers provided lovely parting gifts of Retiree Health Insurance, Retiree Dental Insurance and a RHSA (Retiree Health Savings Account). Retired with just enough $ outside the umbrella (in taxable a/c's) to bridge income gap in years until early SS began for both at Age 62 in 2018.
    Started taking (effectively) tax-free IRA w/d's in 2013 to fully defray annual income gaps and/or maximize tax savings. Currently, SS and remaining pensions (that could not be rolled) cover all but a couple grand of annual living expenses.
    98% of liquid net worth is still in IRAs and only 2% is in taxable accounts. We have generated negligible taxable income other than early SS starting in 2018 and remaining Pensions that weren't rolled starting in 2013. We have ALWAYS since 2013 kept total taxable income UNDER the taxable MFJ threshold.
    And to answer question by @derf:
    No formal employment since both retired in 2012. We do however have some friends and relatives throw at us a little cash, dinners, event tix and the like for our otherwise gratuitous mgmt of their ports. I have also done some yard work for some neighbors to keep busy and active for a ridiculously smallish hourly fee. Currently down to just one neighbor as I've tired somewhat of all that.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Hi Derf,
    ARDBX has an inception date of 05/16/2022 so it does not yet have a 3 year history.
    2023 performance - top 8% return in Foreign Small/Mid Blend category
    2024 performance - top 11% return in Foreign Small/Mid Blend category
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/ardbx/performance
    @David_Snowball wrote about ARDBX in Sept. 2023.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2023/09/artisan-international-explorer-ardbx-arhbx/
  • A global bond selloff sez CNBC headline
    @Old_Joe, I first came across it on Apple News that I subscribe to. It explains the bond world in details with relevant graphs on each points. The rise of long treasuries (10 years treasury for example) since last October to near 5% today has negatively impacted the equities and bonds. It also presented the “ excess CAPE yield” at historical high, suggesting below average future returns on stock market in an already rich valuation environment.
    Our local library subscribers to many newspapers. Generally searching by the title would find it.
    I always forget about my library card.
    Tip of the cap to @Observant1 for finding the MSN link.
  • Another fox in the hen house!
    It's not just the big banks that play these games. Many institutions do. One can counter by being ever vigilant and moving money around from bank to bank. I did this for a time when I was between homes and had cash proceeds from the sale of my old home. Now I find it more practical to stick with an institution that consistently pays moderately high rates even if not the very top rates. (And to use MMFs, T-bills, etc.)
    Whatever you do, keep your hand on your wallet at all times.
    Speaking of wallets and not trusting Big Banksters with a penny of your money, what's in your wallet? If you have Fidelity's card, that's issued by Elan Financial Services, a subsidiary of US Bank, the fifth largest US Bank. Though you wouldn't know that by asking Google what it thinks are the largest banks; it omits US bank from its list.
    Elan is behind CCs issued by 1300 different banks and credit unions. As CFSB writes, "The name that you are looking for [may not be] the actual issuer's name (for example, "ABC Card" is issued by XYZ Bank)."
    Here's CFPB's page that has the institutions actually issuing cards.
    https://www.consumerfinance.gov/credit-cards/agreements/issuer/us-bank-national-association/
    250 largest banks and 250 largest credit unions by assets held (Dec 2023):
    https://personetics.com/resource-center/largest-banks-and-credit-unions-in-the-united-states/
    Bank holding companies with the 20 largest credit card loan portfolios (March 2024):
    https://www.americanbanker.com/list/20-bank-holding-companies-with-the-largest-credit-card-loan-portfolios-at-the-end-of-q4
  • A global bond selloff sez CNBC headline
    @Old_Joe, I first came across it on Apple News that I subscribe to. It explains the bond world in details with relevant graphs on each points. The rise of long treasuries (10 years treasury for example) since last October to near 5% today has negatively impacted the equities and bonds. It also presented the “ excess CAPE yield” at historical high, suggesting below average future returns on stock market in an already rich valuation environment.
    Our local library subscribers to many newspapers. Generally searching by the title would find it.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Used my 2025 IRA contribution to purchase additional ARDBX shares.
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    S&P Returns by Year
    2024 +25.02%.
    2023 +26.29%.
    2022 -18.11%. (neg)
    2021 +28.71%.
    2020 +18.40%.
    2019 +31.49%.
    2018 -4.38%. (neg)
    2017 +21.83%.
    2016 +11.96%.
    2015 +1.38%.
    ”If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck …..”
    Source of data
    I like to look at some of TRP’s funds’ performance for insights because I know several pretty well from once residing there. Not a recommendation - but there might be some opportunity for long term investors in real assets (PRAFX at TRP) and in real estate (TRREX at TRP). I base this solely on the observation that they’ve fallen quite a bit from their 5 year highs. In a bit of a trough currently. No guarantees. I have very limited exposure to those two areas, Own neither of the funds mentioned.