@Old_Joe, I first came across it on Apple News that I subscribe to. It explains the bond world in details with relevant graphs on each points. The rise of long treasuries (10 years treasury for example) since last October to near 5% today has negatively impacted the equities and bonds. It also presented the “ excess CAPE yield” at historical high, suggesting below average future returns on stock market in an already rich valuation environment.
Our local library subscribers to many newspapers. Generally searching by the title would find it.

Used my 2025 IRA contribution to purchase additional ARDBX shares.

S&P Returns by Year
2024 +25.02%.
2023 +26.29%.
2022 -18.11%. (neg)
2021 +28.71%.
2020 +18.40%.
2019 +31.49%.
2018 -4.38%. (neg)
2017 +21.83%.
2016 +11.96%.
2015 +1.38%.
”If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck …..”
Source of data
I like to look at some of TRP’s funds’ performance for insights because I know several pretty well from once residing there. Not a recommendation - but there might be some opportunity for long term investors in real assets (PRAFX at TRP) and in real estate (TRREX at TRP). I base this solely on the observation that they’ve fallen quite a bit from their 5 year highs. In a bit of a trough currently. No guarantees. I have very limited exposure to those two areas, Own neither of the funds mentioned.

As Yogi mentioned in his earlier post, it's a common practice of internet banks to draw money in with high rates, then lower the rates on those accounts while creating yet another new high rate account type. Capital One did this with its 360 Savings (old) and 360 Performance Savings (new). Several other banks have done this as well.
As much of a fan as I am of CFPB, its press release (as reported by Yahoo) is somewhat misleading. It compares the two Capital One accounts, but not over the same time periods.

The CFPB said Capital One lowered and froze its 360 Savings account’s APY to 0.30 percent from late 2019 to mid-2024, while it increased the new 360 Performance Savings account’s APY from 0.40 percent to 4.25 percent between April 2022 and January 2024.

Performance Savings always had higher rates, granted. However, the CFPB omits the fact that Capital One lowered the interest rate on Performance Savings account between late 2019 and autumn 2020, just as it did with the older Savings account rate. By late summer 2020 the rate difference between the two accounts had closed to 10 basis points. The lowering of rates was not an issue, regardless of the CFPB statement.
What were issues were the rate difference between the two account types (at all times) and the freezing of one account's rate while the other's was raised.
From friend's statements and depositaccounts.com chart here):

Month	360 Savings	360 Performance Savings
9/2019	  1.00%			1.90%
10/2019	  0.80%			1.90%
12/2019	  0.60%			1.80%
3/2020	  0.50%			1.50%
5/2020	  0.50%			1.30%
6/2020	  0.50%			1.00%
8/2020	  0.50%			0.65%
9/2020	  0.40%			0.50%
12/2020	  0.30%			0.40%
4/2022	  0.30%			0.60%  (and up from here)

I was taking RMD on Jan 2 or 3. But in 2020, the pandemic year, the RMDs were waived - first for those who took it after February or March, and finally for all around mid-2020. So, I was kicking myself for 5-6 months in 2020 for taking RMDs too early. Now I take them in mid/late-year.

Different strokes for different folks.
We plan on making QCDs when we're finally subject to RMDs. So had we been subject to RMDs by 2020, we would not have been very upset at having taken a distribution that wasn't required. The money would have gone to some good causes (at least we think so).
We make partial Roth conversions annually. Since those are generally best done early in the year, and since they cannot be done prior to taking RMDs, we plan on taking RMDs (for QCDs) early each year.
In 2009, RMDs were also waived. But this was announced at the end of 2008. So there was no confusion about what to do with 2009 RMDs already taken. Only two waivers in 50 years (RMDs started in 1974 with ERISA), and only one of those without advance warning. Those are pretty good odds of it not happening again in our lifetimes.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1593547/000139834425000661/fp0091875-1_497.htm
THE ADVISORS’ INNER CIRCLE FUND III
(the “Trust”)
Legal & General Commodity Strategy Fund
(the “Fund”)
Supplement dated January 14, 2025 to the Fund’s Prospectus (the “Prospectus”) and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”), each dated March 1, 2024, as supplemented
This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Prospectus and SAI, and should be read in conjunction with the Prospectus and SAI.
The Board of Trustees of the Trust, at the recommendation of Legal & General Investment Management America, Inc. (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser of the Fund, has approved a plan of liquidation providing for the liquidation of the Fund’s assets and the distribution of the net proceeds pro rata to the Fund’s shareholders. In connection therewith, the Fund is closed to investments from new and existing shareholders effective immediately. The Fund is expected to cease operations and liquidate on or about February 14, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”). The Liquidation Date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Trust’s officers.
Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem (sell) their shares in the manner described in the “Purchasing and Selling Fund Shares – How to Sell Your Fund Shares” section of the Prospectus. For those Fund shareholders that do not redeem (sell) their shares prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute to each such shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash distribution equal in value to the shareholder’s interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date.
In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, the Adviser may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate the Fund’s orderly liquidation, such as by holding cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
The liquidation distribution amount will include any accrued income and capital gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will generally be a taxable event for shareholders investing through taxable accounts. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your particular tax situation. Shareholders remaining in the Fund on the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund. However, the net asset value of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will reflect costs of liquidating the Fund. Shareholders will receive liquidation proceeds as soon as practicable after the Liquidation Date.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
LGI-SK-001-0003

@WABAC
On the Osterweis (OSTIX) quarterly webinar today, they mentioned staying short, 1.5 years because they’re not being sufficiently rewarded for taking on additional duration risk.

Thanks for the info. We have that in my wife's IRA.
Not just higher for longer, but shorter for longer too.

I was taking RMD on Jan 2 or 3. But in 2020, the pandemic year, the RMDs were waived - first for those who took it after February or March, and finally for all around mid-2020. So, I was kicking myself for 5-6 months in 2020 for taking RMDs too early. Now I take them in mid/late-year.

Good that the regulators caught up with Capital One/COF. I posted about this problem a while ago.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/159297/#Comment_159297
Barron's doesn't think that it would hurt COF & DFS merger.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/capital-one-stock-cfpb-lawsuit-1041890d

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/capital-one-sued-us-watchdog-203458278.html
Cheated customers out of $2 BILLION

@WABAC
On the Osterweis (OSTIX) quarterly webinar today, they mentioned staying short, 1.5 years because they’re not being sufficiently rewarded for taking on additional duration risk.

@stillers,
Please indulges us with your "pay no tax" strategies.
With your RMDs being 16 years away and retirement starting in 2012 or at age 45, I am all ears.
Congratulations.

Thanks. @bee
Do have GEV shareholders in the forum? I sold some shares $50 below the current price thinking it is way overpriced. If any one has an insight into its valuation, please share.

I'm playing this game by bundling cap gains into some years and ordinary income into others.
A few techniques to bundle ordinary income
- Do Roth conversions in "ordinary income years".
- Buy short term (1 year or less) CDs/T-bills in "cap gains years" that mature in "ordinary income years"
- Invest in muni (MM, bond) funds in "cap gains years", and taxable (Treasury, corporate) funds in "ordinary income years"
A couple of techniques to bundle cap gains
- Accelerate recognition of gains (sell and repurchase if desired) in "cap gains years"
- Sell "around" annual distributions - avoid distributions of ordinary income (if any) and repurchase after record date (recognizes additional cap gains)
Depending on how much space you have in your 0% cap gains bracket, creating more cap gains may or may not work out for you. In any case, the added cap gains are state-taxable, so that should be kept in mind as well.
On the flip side, Roth conversions may be partially or fully state tax-exempt, depending on the state. That's motivation to convert some money even if it eats into the 0% cap gains bracket.
Note that the numbers presented in the graph are incorrect.
Cap gains: $47,025 (top of 0% bracket) + $14,600 (std ded.) = $61,625, not $63,475
Ordinary inc: $47,150 (top of 12% bracket) + $14,600 (std ded.) = $61,750, not $63,475
Note also that the cap gains bracket does not line up exactly with the ordinary income bracket (as given by the IRS). Close, but different.
It looks like the author may have been adding in the 2023 extra deduction ($1,850) for being over age 65 (or blind). That would make the cap gains figure come out to $63,475.

Thanks @msf, I am still digesting what you wrote. Wondering if RMDs could be worked into this "Capital Gains Year" strategy where by:
RMDs are taking as early as possible to potentially provide a LT capital gain (from the RMD WD date + 1 year) AKA "Capital Gains Years". Conversely, In years where these RMDs suffered a loss, one would sell (by Dec 31st of that year) to harvest a tax loss which would help offset future gains in "Capital Gains Years".

Giruox’s PRWCX has a large long term capital gain distribution in 2024; much more than recent years. In light of what he stated in Barron’s round table discussion, the market is very expensive. Not just the Mag 7, but the rest of S&P 500 are above the historical PE, he has a net seller.
Similarly, Buffet sold much of Apple stock and other in mid 2024. Questions is why at the particular timeframe?

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/14/a-global-bond-sell-off-is-deepening-as-hopes-for-multiple-fed-rate-cuts-fizzle.html

A sell-off in global bond markets is accelerating, fueling concerns over government finances and raising the specter of higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses around the world.

Gloomy details at the link.
Remember those sunny days after the first rate cut?
Anybody see anything out there that hints at reasons for rates to fall?
How much duration are you willing to take on outside of what asset-allocation managers might be taking on for you? Most of the bond funds I own don't even show a duration on the M* Portfolio Manager.

Current selling makes sense... I think a lot of the movement is just rebalancing. Account's are up 30-50% the last 2 years (SPY up about ~46%) so they need to take some off the table to get back to target asset allocation. That along with all the chatter about overvalued, high PE's. tariffs etc... makes everyone a little caution. Add to that "is inflation going back up?????" re: yields.... is enough to keep our heads spinning.

"Long-term return expectations drop across major asset classes, and some firms
are now forecasting higher returns for bonds than US stocks over the next decade."
https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/experts-forecast-stock-bond-returns-2025-edition
As always, take these prognostications with a block of salt...

Josh Brown on CNBC around noon today, theorized that the weakness in techs is due to the very rich selling now (or instructing their institution to sell), as opposed to before year end, because they wanted to avoid a big tax bill for 2024. He said the two-year rally had afforded no opportunities for tax-loss selling, thus they are selling now. I suppose one could book a gain early in 2025, planning to take advantage of a bad market this year by taking a tax loss. I don't travel in those circles, so I know very little of this strategy.

If you have a Automatic RMD Withdrawal set up at VG, it may be wish to check that it is still there.
I have had an Automatic RMD Withdrawal set up at VG for many years. Everything has always worked fine.
This year, I received a letter from VG dated 1/3/25. It was the RMD withdrawal confirmation summary for 2025, and everything was correct. I was set up for 2025.
Then today, I received another letter from VG dated 1/8/25, with another RMD confirmation summary for 2025. This one showed "2025 Service Level -- Calculation Only" and "Distribution Option -- None". My Scheduled Automatic RMD Distribution had been removed.
I telephoned VG and spoke with a lady who was very helpful. She restored my scheduled RMD and everything is fine again. I just want to alert others that could have happened to them and to check their confirmation.