The last few messages on this thread have been very educational, tks to all who contributed. I have a similar system as @FD1000 but have high confidence that I'm much less proficient. That said, I do decent on my goal of beating VWELX (either in absolute returns or better risk adjusted returns).
The below comment from FD1000 hit home because this is exactly what I do every 4 weeks relying heavily on the MFO Premium Screener.
"Lastly, that is an exercise I use. Suppose all my money is in cash, what would be my best 2-3 funds to buy now? The answer is exactly what I do. That releases me from any commitment or being sorry."
My 2c on the topic of "trader" vs. "investor" -- SEC definitions are a moot point. If one is buying anything other than a passive index, one is a trader regardless of whether your average hold period is 3 months or 3 years or 30 years. You are inherently betting that your pick will perform better than an index from an absolute return OR SWAN perspective.

Let's start with the CrossingBridge family ...

Four funds. Four Great Owls. I know of no other family that can make that claim.
All four have beaten their category peers since launch. So, 100% on our family score card metric ... only a handful of families can claim that, like Dodge & Cox.
Total AUM = $1.3B.
Average er = 0.89%.
All no load.
All no 12b-1 fee.
Min initial buy: $5K.
Extremely impressive accomplishment.

From today's update: "The Leuthold Core Fund's Major Trend Index improved to High Neutral due to better economic readings and bullish technical indicators, overriding high valuations and elevated sentiment. As a result, net equity exposure in the Core fund increased to 55%." 60-65% would be "normal" for them. At base, investors are in a mood to party regardless of the price of the ticket so the model says play along (but watch).
Inflation has ticked down to 2.4% YOY. The fed funds rate was cut, and mortgage rates promptly rose as wannabee buyers flooded the market. The S&P and Dow hit all-time highs. DJT (the stock) is surging. The percentile ranking for ARK Innovation ETF in the last five years is: 1 / 100 / 100 / 1 / 100 with two firsts and three lasts averaging out to 99th percentile for the five-year period. ARKK investors are leaving very slowly. Western Asset investors, not so much: the firm saw $28 billion in outflows in the past month.

Article, if you choose to read announcement.

AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/9/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (49.0%, high) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (20.6%, low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (30.4%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +28.4% (high). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (137+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (52+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 65.41% (positive). At 8:30 AM ET today, the CPI release will determine the I-Bond variable-rate from November 1 & CPI-W the Social Security COLA for 2025. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1692/thread
Edit/Add. After the release of CPI & CPI-W on 10/20/14:
I-Bond variable-rate from November 1 is 1.90% (semiannual 0.9506%).
Social Security COLA for 2025 is +2.5%.

Thank you @davidsherman. For me, it's the association that took me aback.
Catalyst, Rational, AlphaCentric all seem like asset gathers. Really high er. Front loads. 12b-1 fees. Multiple share classes.
I came across Szilagyi back in 2017 profiling AlphaCentric Income fund. I absolutely loved Tom Miner and the folks at subadvisor Garrison Point, but I was skeptical of their association with Szilagyi's organization.
An excerpt:
Focusing on IOFIX, the adviser pays 0.33% “other” (mostly administrative and servicing). The remaining 1.16% “management fee” (after a 0.01% acquired fund fee) is then split between AlphaCentric and Garrison Point, or 0.58% each. Since another Jerry Szilagyi company “MFund Services LLC,” also gets paid to manage the overall trust, Szilagyi’s firms appear to receive more fee from the fund than GPC does.
Interestingly, AlphaCentric is listed along with Eventide, Pinnacle and Advisory Research as a strategic partner in a firm called Multi-Funds, which describes itself as “A Premier Marketing, Consulting and Distribution Firm.” While this channel may indeed have helped bring attention to IOFIX, allowing the sub-adviser to focus on its strategy and portfolio management … what it loves to do, Multi-Funds hasn’t helped other funds in the AlphaCentric family achieve anywhere near the assets attracted by IOFIX.
Jerry Szilagyi also runs Catalyst Funds, a collection of “Intelligent Alternatives … We understood that the market did not need another traditional family of mutual funds … we endeavor to offer unique investment products to meet the needs of discerning financial advisers and their clients … specialized strategies seeking to produce income and equity-oriented returns while attempting to limit risk and volatility.” There are 28 Catalyst Funds comprising $6.2B in AUM. Average age just under 5 years. Most come in three classes, including those imposing 4.75% front-loads and 12b-1 fees. Average fees: 1.76% (oldest share class, 2.01% all share classes).
When you stood-up CrossingBridge, it just seemed like a horse of a different color.
You're always 10 steps ahead of everybody else in the room, which puts me 20 steps back and surely missing something.
Or, simply being a Pollyanna.
But Szilagyi's brand also ran into regulatory issues, granted he's in good company, but still:
SEC Charges Portfolio Manager and Advisory Firm with Misrepresenting Risk in Mutual Fund
The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced charges against a New York-based investment adviser for misleading investors about the management of risk in a mutual fund. Catalyst Capital Advisors LLC (CCA) and its President and Chief Executive Officer, Jerry Szilagyi, agreed to pay a combined $10.5 million to settle the charges. The SEC also filed a complaint in federal district court in Madison, Wisconsin, against Senior Portfolio Manager, Edward Walczak, for fraudulently misrepresenting how he would manage risk for the fund.
https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020-21
Fund That Lost $700 Million on Bearish Bets Fined for Misleading Investors
Catalyst Capital Advisors and CEO Jerry Szilagyi settled regulatory probes, will pay $10.5 million
A mutual-fund manager that lost 20% with wrong-way bets against the stock market agreed to pay $10.5 million to settle regulatory claims that it misled investors about its procedures for limiting losses.
Catalyst Capital Advisors LLC and its chief executive, Jerry Szilagyi, settled the regulatory probes Monday without admitting or denying wrongdoing. The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission also both filed civil fraud lawsuits against Edward Walczak, the portfolio manager who ran the Catalyst Hedged Futures Strategy Fund.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fund-that-lost-700-million-on-bearish-bets-fined-for-misleading-investors-11580167076
I'll post more later on the Catalyst, Rational, and AlphaCentric families.

S&P 500 - second Lowest ever dividend yield (1.27%) and highest P/E (25) and highest P/S (3.0)

For a different context, current S&P 500 forward P/E is 21.6 while the highest forward P/E ever was in 1999 at 25.5. If one thinks we are far in bubbly territory, I guess we are from frothy territory?
Yet for a different context, the S&P 500 forward P/E has increased from 15.3 during the October 12, 2022 week to the current 21.6. So give or take the P/E has increased about 40% while the price increased 60% during this period.
May be someone here can give their analysis of whether P is running sustainably too far ahead of the increase in E.
I must state the old refrain - valuation is a bad timing tool.

Thanks @FD1000.

^MOVE, the bond risk, is over 120 and indicates elevated risk.
MOVE > 110 has a nice correlation to high volatility in bonds and in most cases, typical high-rated bonds don't do well.
On 3-2-2020 it was at 125 = sell everything = correct. The week before it was already over 110.
End of 02/2022 it was over 130 = sell and continue to get higher with some lower volatility.
Also at the end of 2007, it was over 130 and higher in 2008.
www.tradingcenter.org/index.php/trade/equities/stock-signals/354-move-index-bonds

GATEX is an OEF with 12/1977 as inception. It has been using options overlays since soon after there were tradable options in 1970s. Its inception well predates the ETFs that have been around only since 1990s. So, GATEX isn't an ETF, but a granddaddy OEF that has been using these options overlays.
The point I was making was that JEPI & JEPQ don't use any new options techniques. But their AUMs have ballooned just because of JPM's marketing muscle & investors' misconceptions about these late bull market funds.
Most active ETFs just use options overlays, not so for active OEFs.

BB: "How often do you run the fund screener even if your current holdings are performing to your satisfaction?
FD: My simpler original system says run it every 4-6 months regardless of anything and select the best risk/reward funds.
My newer trading system since 2017 with emphasis on making 3% over inflation and never losing more than 3% from any last top has more moving parts. I have 3-4 lists (Multi, HY Muni, Bank loans, others) of my best ideas already. I looked at these lists once a week. I run a generic screener at least once a month, maybe a miss fund.
If my funds are doing fine, like this year, I get lazy for weeks.
BB: What vehicles are available if you do not want to trade but want to make 2-3% + inflation?
FD: the only ones I'm willing to use are special bond funds and that's why I spatialized in these categories. I'm not willing to lose more than 3%. Others may be comfortable with losing 10-20%. I'm looking for bond funds with low SD. Over a year ago, we discussed CBLDX,RSIIX/RSIVX and I posted they are a longer hold, maybe years.
It's never going to be an easy task.
Sure, you can buy VOO and go to sleep...or...PRWCX.
Lastly, that is an exercise I use. Suppose all my money is in cash, what would be my best 2-3 funds to buy now? The answer is exactly what I do. That releases me from any commitment or being sorry.

There is quite a bit of speculation and chatter regarding my participation on MFO Discussion Board. Although folks may find the discussion board a good medium for communication, I consider the platform more effective as a push process. It does not easily allow an effective back-and-forth dialogue, and I type with two fingers!
Further, as mentioned in one of the above posts above, as a registered investment adviser CrossingingBridge is regulated on where/ how it can conduct work related business. We don’t always see posts on message boards, and posting on a messaging board requires multiple steps of approval from the Firm’s Compliance team on how/what can be said about the Funds on such forums and Social Media in general as its not an approved method of communication and can be considered Fund marketing.
For those speculators, there is nothing hidden in content or timing. I continue to encourage direct communication. One way is to e-mail [email protected] Another would be call (914) 741-1515.
If David Snowball wants to arrange a special Zoom call with MFO participants, we can schedule an hour of Q&A on CrossingBridge and our activities.
As for the AlphaCentric announcement, should CrossingBridge be successfully appointed as sub-advisor, we intend to apply our investment process for the specific asset/industry class as similar fashion as all our offerings. Further, we would not take on a client or Fund if we thought it would be dilutive to existing clients or not meet our competency.

I guess I was not clear in my post: SIIIX is up 18% during the last 1 year (12 months, not YTD). This is quite impressive.

What vehicles are available if you do not want to trade but want to make 2-3% + inflation?
Are yearly Buffer ETFs a worthy consideration? These just roll year after year if you do not sell. If I recall their construction / offering, seems like my principal is always preserved + a potential for limited upside.
If your principal is preserved year after year, why do you care about daily volatility?
Just do not put all your money into them because the manager may not be able execute as contemplated - not a substitute for US Treasury bonds!
There may be more than one thread on Buffer ETFs but here is one -
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/62213/new-stock-etfs-offering-100-downside-protection-are-coming/p1
I am bringing up this topic again because of the new consideration of total return of 2-3% + inflation and no loss of principal. It is tradable and so you can get out whenever you want - not like private equity or private credit.
MAXJ currently has $170M AUM and there may be others with larger AUM for better B/A spreads and liquidity.
Just to be clear, the 100% downside protection is only if invested at inception. For after inception, pl check fund site for remaining cap and fund NAV (minus inception NAV / floor). E.g., if one buys MAXJ now, one could still lose 4%.

Just to clarify: I believe that the original post was about SIIIX, which is up 18% this year, not about IOFIX, which is up 2% this year.

+1
https://alphacentricfunds.com/funds/siiix/
It is up only 9.3% (YTD - see under Current Fund Performance table). The table above shows YTD 11.08% as of 9/30. So, this fund lost 1.8% in the first week of this month.

FD,
Thanks for the following info:
"What is "now"?
Years ago, using my original system, 'now' used to be 1-3 months but I also looked at 1-3 years just to be sure the fund did well for the short+longer term.
Since 2017, "now" is the last 2-3 weeks and where better trading is needed
"now" also means investing in the best wide range funds, why you don't want to diversify, and exactly what I have done."
How often do you run the fund screener even if your current holdings are performing to your satisfaction?

Just to clarify: I believe that the original post was about SIIIX, which is up 18% during the last 12 months, which is quite impressive, not about IOFIX, which is up 2% during the last 12 months.

I suspect when @bee posted this thread August 16 there was widespread assumption rates would decline across the curve. While short term rates - notably the Fed overnight discount rate - have fallen, since @bee posted, that has not been the case with longer term rates. August 16, when this thread was started, the 10-year treasure rate stood at about 3.8%. Today it sits at 4.07%. Over the last month 10-year rate has risen sharply from around 3.63% to 4.07%. Consequently, the values of most bond funds with any duration have fallen in recent weeks. ISTM bond investors are smelling more inflation ahead.
Good discussion of high yield. I recognize it’s an important investment for many. In recent years I’ve generally chosen to limit my risk to equities rather than play in the HY area. In fact, I’m getting a little freaked out by narrow spreads and rising rates. Moved all of my 4-5 year old hold in PRIHX (intermediate muni bond) into cash this week, while adding a bit of equity risk. (But I confess to having terrible timing.)
@bee? Are you becoming clairvoyant? The Fidelity article (on how to profit from falling rates) you posted August 16 bears a publication date of August 21 … ? And, it doesn’t appear to have been added later. :)

So, when someone posts about a fund I own now and says, Well, in 2022, it lost more than another fund or in the last 10 years, this fund was better than another, I don't care, what matters is what the fund is doing now..

The problem is defining "now." A fund that does well for a few months or even a year would be bad reason FOR ME to jump in, perhaps you are different. If you have a fund that outperforms for years then that would be a reason for me to move...but just as often I find the fund reverts to the mean rather than continue to outperform, a point you acknowledge in another post. I totally get the idea of riding the wave of a winner, but find that strategy hard to implement in real life. Truth is it's very hard to beat buy and hold with solid funds over a long period of time, or even an index fund. I suspect many of us know that deep down, but just because I'm a bad golfer doesn't mean I dislike golf.

Actually, most funds trail the SP500 with which has a very small expense ratio if you hold for decades. There is a good reason why Bogle and Buffett recommended the SP500 for decades....and it's the easiest way to invest. So, why are we discussing funds and trade?
I came to a conclusion that I want to participate in the markets by using best risk/reward funds. The idea is to find good performance wide range funds with lower volatility, and that will result in a better sharp ratio. My basic system from 2000 to 2013 was to use a fund screener every 4-6 months and find the best 5 risk/reward funds for 1-3 months + 1-3 years and invest 20% in each. After I have done it several years, I learned a lot more about the managers, their history, and their weaknesses and strengths.
2008 was a waking call, I lost 25% in that year, and since then I have been searching for a way to control meltdowns. It took me another 10 years to master that concept, but this time by using special bond funds.
As you can see, it took me years of practice and tweaking. You just can't wake up one morning and be successful doing it.
Of course, bad calls are built into it, the idea is to lose very minimal (which in bondland is 0.1-0.2%) and make a lot more when I'm right. I'm not your typical trader, if my trade is right, I can stay in it for months until I find a better fund.
Now, at retirement, my portfolio is big enough that I only need to make inflation + 2-3%(of course, I want more) and why I don't need to take a lot of risk.
What is "now"?
Years ago, using my original system, 'now' used to be 1-3 months but I also looked at 1-3 years just to be sure the fund did well for the short+longer term.
Since 2017, "now" is the last 2-3 weeks and where better trading is needed
"now" also means investing in the best wide range funds, why you don't want to diversify, and exactly what I have done.