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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    US premarket Friday 4/4 ...
    Dow -1000
    SPX -142
    NDQ -550
    (China just imposed 34% retaliatory tariffs on all imported US goods, too.)
    "We're gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you'll say, 'Please, please. It's too much winning. We can't take it anymore. Mr. President, it's too much.'
    - Donald Trump, April 12, 2016
    FAFO. Many people (and companies) did the former, and now will suffer the latter.
  • Trump Is Putting Tariffs On Penguins
    Heard Island / McDonald Islands penguins are fiercely independent and largely insusceptible to subjugation.
    These truths aggravated the Trump administration considerably.
    After careful deliberation, Trump's team of economic experts concluded that imposing 10% tariffs
    on the flightless birds would noticeably diminish their intrepid, self-reliant demeanor.
  • Trump Is Putting Tariffs On Penguins
    One of the regions on Trump’s tariff list are Heard Island and the MacDonald Islands, both of which are inhabited entirely by penguins and zero humans. It should go without saying that these critters are not exporting any goods or services to the USA on which they could be taxed the 10% that the chart assigned them.
    https://ca.news.yahoo.com/trump-tariffs-penguins-explained-164050321.html
  • In Europe, You Can Be Sued for Not Taking Action on Climate Change. In the U.S., It’s the Opposite.
    "Of course anyone paying the least bit of attention to the multiple climate disasters of recent years would know this."
    @AndyJ- I know you didn't mean it this way, but some might interpret that as saying that Trump and his financial dwarves have absolutely no clue about the CLIMATE CHANGE HOAX. I don't think that we're supposed to say things like that any more because it might hurt FD1000's feelings.
  • Mr. Market
    I was buying this morning, taking cash from 12% down to 7.5%. (Not all into equities of course.)
    ** Fidelity’s site was as slow as I’ve ever seen it. “Dead in the water” at times. At one point around 11 AM I received a message “We are presently unable to display current positions”. Seemed to get back on track in the afternoon when I logged back in. Maybe they brought in some additional robots? :)
    FWIW - After picking up one consumers staples stock this morning to add to my 9 CEF collection I re-enrolled in Fido’s “basket” option later in the day. 10 holdings at 10% each makes sense. $5 a month fee. And they’ll perform an automatic rebalance whenever you want. Hard to beat really. There are some bugs, as I’ve noted before, but over time easy to work around.
    Exciting day. We’re a bunch of seasoned investors. Take it in stride.
    - “Tonight, we’re going to try and make sense out of mass hysteria.” - Louis Rukeyser, October 23, 1987
  • Tariffs
    Why did you start another tariff thread on an investment forum?
    This belongs in the Off Topic one. It's obviously a political one.
    Can you show me the high correlation between this article and our portfolios?
    Can you see it today?
    Or do still you have your nose stuck too far somewhere to see anything clearly?
    In all seriousness, I'm hereby nominating your questions/post on this thread as the dumbest investment/economy post I've ever read. And I do mean ever.
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    Thankfully my accounts, nearly all equity, have been relatively flat (+/- 1.5%) on the day, which is fine by me when the storm clouds show up. Will it hold in the coming days? *fingers crossed*
  • However, the US has a Trade Surplus in the Services Sector
    FYI, here is an interesting excerpt from an article about Trump’s tariffs in yesterday’s The NYT:
    "President Trump says he is outraged by the fact that the United States imports more goods than it sends to the rest of the world. What he rarely mentions, though, is that when it comes to services, the tables are turned.
    Service sectors — which include the finance, travel, engineering and medical industries and more — make up the bulk of the American economy. Exports of these services brought more than $1 trillion into the United States last year.
    But that dominance also gives other countries some clout in negotiations — including the ability to impose some pain on the U.S. economy as they look to retaliate against Mr. Trump’s tariffs on goods.
    The European Union, for instance, could use tools designed to restrict services coming into the bloc as a cudgel.
    The United States is the largest exporter of services in the world, and a large share of those services, from financial services to cloud computing, are delivered digitally. The country ran a trade surplus in services of nearly $300 billion last year.
    Every time a European tourist stays at a U.S. hotel, for example, the money spent is counted in the services export basket. And every time someone in Canada or Japan or Mexico pays to listen to music or watch movies and television shows made in the United States, they are adding to America’s surplus in the services trade.
    Many of the countries that the United States is targeting for tariffs run a services deficit with the United States, including Canada, China, Japan, Mexico and much of Europe, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
    “The E.U. is now equipped with policy tools to extend the range of retaliation against U.S. tariffs to target imports of U.S. services,” Filippo Taddei, a managing director of global investment research at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a research note about possible European responses.
    Such measures could include tariffs, restrictions on trade in services and limits on trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights. That could affect American tech giants like Google. Several European diplomats said that use of the tool is a distinct possibility, should the trade war escalate."
  • Timely pricing
    @msf,
    Thanks for your research. Here are a few of my casual observations.
    It may take days to obtain accurate prices for some mutual funds/ETFs via M* Portfolio Manager (free version).
    Prices for mutual funds/CITs in my Fidelity 401(k) seem to be updated after 22:00 pdt.
  • Global markets in turmoil as Trump tariffs wipe £1.5tn off Wall Street
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    Economists say levies of 10-50% have dramatically added to the risk of a worldwide downturn
    Global financial markets have been plunged into turmoil as Donald Trump’s escalating trade war knocked trillions of dollars off the value of the world’s biggest companies and heightened fears of a US recession. As world leaders reacted to the US president’s “liberation day” tariff policies demolishing the international trading order, about $2tn (£1.5tn) was wiped off Wall Street and share prices in other financial centres across the globe.
    Experts said Trump’s sweeping border taxes of between 10% and 50% on the US’s traditional allies and enemies alike had dramatically added to the risk of a steep global downturn and a recession in the world’s biggest economy. The sell-off swept the globe, sending exchanges plunging in Asia and Europe.
    When New York trading opened, the S&P 500 index of the US’s leading companies fell by as much as 4.3% in morning trading, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq fund down 5.1%. Meanwhile, the US dollar hit a six-month low, falling by about 2.2% on Thursday morning, amid a growing loss of confidence in a currency that had previously been considered the safest in the world for most of the past century.
    Warning clients to beware a “dollar confidence crisis”, George Saravelos, the head of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank, said: “The safe-haven properties of the dollar are being eroded.” The heaviest falls in share prices on Thursday were reserved for US firms with complex international supply chains stretching into the countries that Trump is targeting with billions of dollars in fresh border taxes.
    Apple, which makes most of its iPhones, tablets and other devices for the US market in China, plunged by as much as 9.5%, along with steep declines for other large multinationals including Microsoft, Nvidia, Dell and HP. Commodities fell sharply, including a 7% plunge in oil prices, reflecting growing concerns over the global economic outlook.
    In a typically defiant response on Thursday, Trump used his Truth Social platform to declare that the his plan was working. “THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE PATIENT WILL BE FAR STRONGER, BIGGER, BETTER, AND MORE RESILIENT THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!”
    Tariffs will fall heavily on some of the world’s poorest countries, with nations in south-east Asia, including Myanmar, among the most affected. Cambodia, where about one in five of the population lives below the poverty line, was the worst-hit country in the region with a tariff rate of 49%. Vietnam faces 46% tariffs and Myanmar, reeling from a devastating earthquake and years of civil war after a 2021 military coup, was hit with 44%.
    Analysts warned that garment and sports shoe makers, which rely heavily on production in south-east Asia, face rising costs, which will push up prices for consumers around the globe. The share prices of Nike, Adidas and Puma all fell steeply. Analysts said Trump’s measures would raise the average tariff, or border tax, charged by the US to the highest level since 1933, in a development that threatened to sink the US into recession while increasing living costs for consumers.
    The non-partisan Tax Foundation thinktank said it estimated the plan would represent a “$1.8tn tax hike” for US consumers, which would cause imports to fall by more than a quarter, or $900bn, in 2025. While the measures will hit the US hard, researchers at the consultancy Oxford Economics said they could sink global economic growth to the lowest annual rate since the 2008 financial crisis, barring the height of the Covid pandemic.
    The French president, Emmanuel Macron, said Trump’s decision to impose tariffs of 20% on EU goods was “brutal and unfounded”, while Germany’s outgoing chancellor, Olaf Scholz, called it “fundamentally wrong”. Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, said the “protectionist” tariffs ran “contrary to the interests of millions of citizens on this side of the Atlantic and in the US”.
    The EU is thought to be preparing retaliatory tariffs on US consumer and industrial goods – likely to include emblematic products such as orange juice, blue jeans and Harley-Davidson motorbikes – to be announced in mid-April, in response to steel and aluminium tariffs previously announced by Trump.
  • Tariffs haven’t leaked at Liberation -56
    The U.S. president normally can not impose tariffs - this power rests with Congress.
    To circumvent this minor inconvenience, Donald J. Trump declared a National Emergency to:
    "Increase our Competitive Edge, Protect our Sovereignty, and Strengthen our National and Economic Security."
    Congress can vote any time to terminate the state of emergency.
    If tariffs announced on Liberation Day remain in effect for a while, will Congress act or will they do nothing?
    On October 19, 2024, The Economist published a special report regarding America’s economy.
    Their bottom line conclusion: our economy was 'the envy of the world.'
    Yet, here we are today.
    It's much too early to determine the exact scope of the repercussions emanating from Trump's gambit.
    However, these ill-conceived tariffs will cause great economic harm
    (increased inflation, slower growth, higher unemployment) if left in place.
    These effects diametrically contradict Trump's campaign promises.
  • In Europe, You Can Be Sued for Not Taking Action on Climate Change. In the U.S., It’s the Opposite.
    Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The Wall Street Journal:
    Dutch bank ING is facing trial over its environmental conduct, while asset managers in America are being taken to court for focusing too aggressively on green issues
    ING, the biggest bank in the Netherlands, has joined a list of companies and other organizations that have been sued for not doing enough to tackle climate change in Europe and the U.K. This is in contrast to the situation in the U.S., where banks and asset managers have been taken to court for being too intensely focused on making green investments and environmental nonprofits have been thrust into expensive legal battles.
    This month, the U.S. fossil-fuel industry secured a victory over environmental charity Greenpeace, which was ordered to pay hundreds of millions of dollars to an oil pipeline company after a jury found the charity liable for defamation and trespassing. Greenpeace has said it will appeal the decision. In December, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said BlackRock and other asset managers were avoiding their fiduciary duty to shareholders by making climate-focused investments instead of investing in markets such as coal in their search for profitable returns.
    In the U.S. regulatory sphere, the Securities and Exchange Commission paused its defense of proposed climate-disclosure rules under which large companies would report on their emissions, similar to regulations adopted in Europe and California.
    With lawsuits under way on both sides of the Atlantic, companies and charities that operate in both jurisdictions are being put in a bind. In the U.S., being sued for taking action on climate is becoming more likely, especially amid a Trump presidency. In Europe, litigation working in the opposite way is equally likely.
    Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said in December that asset managers are avoiding their fiduciary duty to shareholders by making climate-focused investments.
    Greenpeace said the litigation it faced recently could set a precedent for further action. “Every step of the way, we’ve emphasized that these types of lawsuits — intended to silence and shut down critics—are part of a growing national attack on our First Amendment rights,” the nonprofit said after the jury decision last week.
    A trial last year in Switzerland may have set a precedent. The European Court of Human Rights ruled in favor of a group of elderly Swiss women who argued that their government wasn’t doing enough to fight climate change, putting them at risk of death from heat waves. In effect, it ruled that governments have a responsibility to protect citizens against the effects of climate change.
  • Death-Crosses
    50-dMA and 200-dMA are like large ships that turnaround slowly. So, even if the market action is sideways for the next few weeks, these death-crosses would happen and then cause more selling. R2000/IWM may be leading the way.
    The momentum has turned negative and it may take some time to play out.
    I have sufficient effective-equity exposure, so I am not buying anything now, but only keeping a buy list.
    Good seasonality ends on April 30. The bad seasonality period is May 1 - October 30. If what we have seen so far was during good seasonality, I wonder what bad seasonality will bring?
  • FTSE 100 suffers fall as Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs wipe trillions off global markets
    Following is a current report from The Guardian:
    Shares slump on both sides of the Atlantic, and across Asia-Pacific, as US dollar falls to six month low after US President Trump’s ‘liberation day’
    FTSE 100's worst day since August
    Newsflash: Britain’s stock market has recorded its biggest one-day fall in eight months, as fears over Donald Trump’s escalating trade war triggered a wave of selling.

    The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has closed after a day of heavy losses, down 133 points or 1.5% at 8,474 points.
    That’s its biggest daily drop since early August last year, when markets were tumbling on fears of a US recession.
    Bank stocks led the fallers, with Standard Chartered down 13%, HSBC falling 8.8% and Barclays losing 8.7%.
    Miners were also hit, by fears that a global downturn would hurt demand for commodities such as iron ore, copper and coal.
  • Anyone notice a connection between the market and a certain politician today?
    All strictly my opinions here...YMMV.
    For us, SELL time was Monday (which we did, 50% of our stock allocation), but no later than Wednesday COM.
    We were pretty sure Thursday would bring bloodshed.
    We feared/still fear Friday's UE (and future UE reports) could add some kerosene to the fire.
    We think a recession and a BEAR are coming to a country near us relatively soon.
    I guess one could SELL some now, but when I miss selling before the Big C, I usually wait to BUY the Bear.
    If any stock exposure is to be bought now, for us, it would be Staples and/or Alternatives, though we are toying with adding a wee bit to FXAIX and/or PRWCX.
    With some of Monday's stock SELLs proceeds, we bought a CD, three dedicated bond funds and QLENX Tues and Wed.
    Bottom Line: We think this is going to get FAR worse before it gets ANY better. One MUST have a LT investment horizon to be BUYing, especially broad market stuff, anytime soon.
    ----------------------------------------
    NOT my opinion, but the narrative of some of the analysts/posters I follow:
    BUYing the dip has not worked for the last about 2 years (recent MW study)
    NASDAQ is clearly rolling over (Katie Stockton)
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/04/01/off-the-charts-whats-next-for-tech-in-q2.html
    Death Crosses for all major indexes are weeks away (yogi).
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/63661/death-crosses#latest
    Russell entered Bear Market land today (CNBC).
    Recession fears are mounting and with recessions come Bear Markets (Just about everybody)
  • Anyone notice a connection between the market and a certain politician today?
    But is it buy or sell time?
    So, I guess OPEC lowered prices. Good for US oil companies. Not their stock today. Chevron and Exxon down 4 to 5 percent. ConocoPhilips almost 10 percent. But, with cheaper OPEC, prices at the pump? down?
  • Death-Crosses
    Death-cross is when the 50-dMA crosses the 200-dMA in a down move.
    Eyeballing StockCharts 50-dMA and 200-dMA trends, the Death-Crosses may be coming soon:
    Nasdaq Comp/ONEQ - 2 weeks?
    Nasdaq 100/QQQ - 3 weeks?
    SP500/VOO - 4 weeks?
    R2000/IWM - already on 3/24/25 (also, in the bear territory)
    DJ Transports - already on 3/18/25
  • Anyone notice a connection between the market and a certain politician today?
    Anyone notice a connection between the market and a certain politician today?
    Nope. No me.
    That's because a "certain poster" earlier this week had educated all of us dopes on this forum that tariffs have no direct correlation to the market or the economy.
    That said, thanks in large part to another thread @larryB started this week on Lib Day, I sold 1/2 of our stocks this Monday. Fortunately that was BEFORE I learned what that other "certain poster" taught us dopes.
    ASIDE: We manage portfolios of several friends and relatives. I was able to convince all of them but one to do the same as us on Monday. The lone wolf sadly is my life-long best friend with a LARGE stock portfolio, including a couple of individual tech stocks.
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    FWIW, all SELLs (per above posts) have been entered today.
    Reduced stock exposure by ~50%.
    Parking proceeds in VMRXX, FZDXX and will likely BUY a coupla new rungs on 5-yr CDs ladder that virtually guarantees a net positive TR in 2025.
    Kudos to @larryB for this thread.
    (Sadly) Timely and actionable.
    EDIT: NOT saying this strategy is correct for anyone other than me and the missus.
    BUT, our #1 goal this year, after two monster stock gain years under a REAL president, was to NOT allow the buffoon's asinine fiscal policies (read, orange brain farts) to cause us to be anything but net positive for the year on 12/31/25. And that goal has virtually been guaranteed with these moves today. Plus, we will sleep MUCH better thru year-end!
    What's that old saying? Oh, yeah.
    Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn from time-to-time.
    Thanks again to @larryB for this thread - it truly was the final catalyst for us to act so boldly on Monday.
    Monday's stock sale proceeds were used as follows Tues/Wed:
    Most went as intended to VMRXX and FZDXX.
    Bought another 5-yr CD ladder rung
    Bought first dedicated bond OEFs (3) since selling all of them circa 2022.
    Opened a position in long/short fund QLENX.
    IF, the blood letting continues today up to the close, MAY redeploy some of the proceeds back into FXAIX or PRWCX, having strategically side-stepped today's sell off. But probably not as we are becoming reasonably convinced that a recession and bear are well in the works.
    And, taking suggestions on how to thank @larryB for helping me and the missus save five figures today.