This Investing Trend Is Your Friend—Until It Isn’t ""Momentum makes less sense to a thoughtful, long-term investor."
MMM...this investor has been using momo successfully since 2000 because it works if you know how to do that, and it's not that easy.
The other choice is to have some diversification LT with minimal trades, which is pretty good for most.
Something that is not easy doesn't mean it's undoable. You must have a system that works and keep tweaking it. It doesn't mean it's perfect; just better is enough to get better results.
If I had stocks, I would have a higher % in Value, Europe, China, and gold.
If momo doesn't work, how come US LC were great during 1995-2000 + 2010-2024 while Value, SC, and international were better during 2000-10. Each one lasted for years.
Generally, when US LC do well, it's difficult to beat them per risk-adjusted performance. When they are not, it takes more effort to find other categories and I would advise being more diversified.
Investors who don't believe it, don't practice it, and don't trade it can't be good traders.
Liberation Day! What’s the play? Hmmm...seems like we may need a refresher on the definition and history of stagflation (said the retired, anal bean counter).
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stagflation.aspExcerpt (
BOLD added):
Key Takeaways
Stagflation is the simultaneous appearance in an economy of slow growth, high unemployment, and rising prices. [My 2 pennies on each of the three components are in a prior post here]
Once thought by economists to be impossible, stagflation has occurred repeatedly in the developed world since the 1970s.
Policy solutions for slow growth tend to worsen inflation, and vice versa. That makes stagflation hard to fight. [And why, as noted in a prior linked article, the Fed hates it!]
Liberation Day! What’s the play? Stagflation refers to a scenario with a stagnant economy and high inflation.
It is rare for both conditions to occur simultaneously.
The best known example of stagflation in the U.S. is probably the 1970's oil crisis.
Stagflation is not my "base case" but that doesn't mean it can't rear it's ugly head.