What [the February House Resolution] Means for the Municipal Market: At this time, Republicans are still aiming to use this budget reconciliation process to address the debt ceiling. In theory, the process would need to conclude before the approach of the debt ceiling x-date, which is likely some time in or around May. This week’s vote represents a significant advance in the Republican effort to address the expirations of the TCJA in the first half of this year. While this plan is ambitious, municipal market participants should prepare for developments to occur along this timeline. Despite inclusion on the House Budget Committee’s “Menu of Options,” the tax exemption continues to enjoy broad bipartisan support, and we have heard minimal threats to the tax-exempt status of municipal bonds from congressional offices. It is worth noting, however, that details surrounding offsets and revenue raisers will likely only manifest after both chambers pass identical budget resolutions and the elimination or reduction of the tax exemption for municipal bonds remains a potential option for negotiators.

The states with the most state and local government debt per capita are spread across the country, including both very populous states such as California and Texas as well as sparsely populated Alaska.
...
As a percentage of state GDP, state and local government debt ranges from a low of 4.9 percent in Wyoming to a high of 24.7 percent in Kentucky.

I think it's great that people think that launching the largest trade war since the Smoot-Hawley tariff will have no significant impact on world equity and bond markets, much less the bank accounts of John and Jane Doe.
It's just not polite to talk about it.

And that’s the purpose of

Mutual Fund Observer? To debate the great financial issues of the world? Go at it then.

America’s power grid is due for some big investments. Tariffs could now make that much costlier.
As surging power demand from places such as data centers is set to strain the system, transformers, the nuts and bolts of the power system, look particularly vulnerable. These are devices that step up or down voltages as electricity moves from power plants to homes and factories. New ones are also required every time a new source of electricity—whether wind, solar or natural gas—connects to the grid. The lack of these components can therefore hold up more power from being brought online.
The power industry has already been experiencing a shortage of transformers, for which demand is expected to jump even more in the coming years. Suppliers have been reluctant to invest large sums of capital to expand production capacity because such investments have long break-even timelines. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates that about 55% of in-service distribution transformer units are older than 33 years and approaching their end of life.
So far, the Trump administration has imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, as well as a 10% across-the-board tariff on China. But more could come: The one-month pause on Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico is set to expire in early March. Meanwhile, Trump has ordered federal agencies to explore reciprocal tariffs on trading partners around the world. He has also floated tariffs on copper.
Transformers could become a chokepoint. Only about 20% of transformer demand can be met by the domestic supply chain, according to Wood Mackenzie, which also estimated that transformer prices have already risen 70% to 100% since January 2020 because of inflation for raw materials such as electrical steel and copper.
Mexico, Canada and China are important sources of electrical equipment to the U.S. In 2024, China accounted for over 32% of U.S. low-voltage transformer equipment imports and Mexico accounted for 36% of high-voltage transformer imports. Canada accounted for about 16% of U.S. imports of high-voltage switchgear and 100% of imported utility poles. Utilities typically go through a lengthy process to test the reliability of transformers they are purchasing and tend to require custom specifications, so it isn’t an easy process to switch to a new supplier.
Tariffs will pile new cost pressures on an already-tight grid. The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities said its residential customers’ average monthly bill is expected to increase by 17% to 20% for the 12-month period starting June 2025, partly due to data center-driven demand growth. Nationwide, electricity prices have increased at a compound annual growth rate of 5.7% over the last five years, a considerable acceleration since the preceding five years when prices were roughly flat, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Also worth watching: If the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum do result in a reshoring of those energy-intensive industries, that itself would add to long-term power demand.

@FDSo, just ignore the coup day by day. 1000- Hey there - you think that any of this might impact your financial situation?
Edited for civility. OJ, good sir, please don't let your annoyance take over.

First, this thread is political and should be in OFF forum.
Second, I didn't sell, and I'm doing well, as I have done for years. My portfolio was at its peak at the close last Friday 3/28/2025. If you know my style and goals, you know what I do. I hope your portfolio is doing great, BTW.
The best thing, as usual, is to do nothing and stop reading the scary stories. You should design your portfolio based on your goals with limited trades.
If you are a good trader, watch markets in real time and make adjustments.

@FD1000- Hey there - you think that any of this might impact your financial situation?
Edited for civility. OJ, good sir, please don't let your annoyance take over.

"The US stock market is by far the best one long term."
I believe US stocks will perform well in the long-term
and most stock investors should have a healthy allocation to the US.
This does not necessarily mean the equity portion of their portfolios should be 100% US equities.
For example, wouldn't it have been beneficial for retirees (presumably withdrawing from portfolios)
to have foreign stocks in addition to an S&P 500 fund during the "Lost Decade"?
"So, it boils down to timing and trading."
No, it really doesn't.
Numerous studies have indicated excessive trading often leads to lower returns.
It boils down to creating a sensible investment plan with an asset allocation
suitable to an investor's risk tolerance/risk capacity,
and then sticking to the plan (making adjustments as needed based on life changes).
Some investors may find it helpful to work with a financial advisor to develop this plan.

@FD1000 who asked "What is your record of forecasting, timing, and trading?"
Good question. What is yours other than your say so?

@hank - That Silverado w/a 4-banger, I'm severely puzzled as to what they expect to do with that other than proclaim some kind of status badge. IMHO what a massive waste. I wasn't aware that Chevy would even equip one that way and ISTM that little 4 cal will be straining its heart out.

Automakers may spread the tariff cost between U.S.-produced and imported models, cut back on features, and in some cases, stop selling affordable models aimed at first-time car buyers, as many of those are imported and less attractive if they carry a higher price tag.
...
Affordable models most likely to be affected include the Honda CR-V, Chevy Trax, Subaru Forester, Chevy Equinox and Honda HR-V, said Erin Keating, executive analyst at Cox.
"Car makers know they have certain vehicles in their portfolio that can tolerate lower profit margins," Keating said. "Some vehicles may just prove to be too expensive, and most of those are affordable models manufactured outside the U.S."

Car Manufacturing Plant Shutdowns Could Cost Half a Million US Jobs
In response to potential new tariffs from the Trump administration, Japanese car manufacturers Honda and Toyota, which sold more than 3 million cars in the US last year, are considering shutting down production at some or all of their US plants.
...
Together, Honda and Toyota have 18 US auto plants and employ more than 55,000 workers across 13 states.
...
If Honda and Toyota were to shut down production, even briefly, those plants would send unemployment rates skyrocketing—in some areas by more than 30 percentage points. The newly unemployed workers could stretch state and federal safety net programs through claims on unemployment insurance benefits, Social Security Disability Insurance benefits, or other kinds of support.
...
Shutdowns would also cause indirect effects: individual and corporate income tax revenue would decline; companies that produce tires, glass for windshields, and steel for car frames would all be affected; and unemployed auto plant workers would have less money to spend in restaurants, movie theaters, and retail stores. Using estimates from the Economic Policy Institute of employment multipliers—the number of other jobs that would be affected by an auto plant closure—we can see that plant shutdowns could cause an additional 410,000 jobs to be lost.