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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 4/1/25
    YYB,
    A quick update on a different but somewhat related matter.
    Since this will be a short thread, I hope you are OK my posting here about interest holiday on credit card charges to keep earning interest elsewhere on the deferred payment.
    The credit card deferred payment I enjoyed expired this month and I paid off the entire balance (until now, I was making minimum payment due each statement period). Today, Experian updated my credit score by increasing it by 60 points. My credit score at TransUnion is not yet updated and shows 100 points (and two tiers) below my score at Experian. They may be using different scoring models. Luckily, I am not anticipating needing to apply for credit and can wait for all credit agencies to update in due course.
    We talked about the above subject on a thread I am not able to retrieve now. @hank was also on that thread.
    Thanks.
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 4/1/25
    Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 4/1/25
    TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
    Rates down by -25 bps; early release
    Restricted RC 5.25%, RA 5.00%
    Flexible RCP 4.50%, SRA 4.25%, IRA-101110+ 4.50%
    TSP G Fund 4.250% pending (previous 4.250%).
    Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
    #StableValue #401k #403b #TIAA #TSP
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1926/thread
  • Affordable compact cars could be first to see rising prices from tariffs
    That would pose undue hardship for many budget minded families, including us.
    As those who like pickup trucks and SUV, they will see a lot more then $4K increase; something more like $10-15K!
    Here is a Barrons article on price hike.
    https://msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/trump-tells-car-companies-not-to-raise-prices-why-that-s-bad-news-for-gm-and-ford/ar-AA1BQFCo?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=17ad90f53b8e4891e4bdd6a7c9aaf876&ei=2
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    The earning season is coming and it won’t be pretty. There may be better buying opportunities ahead after 10%+ pullback. At that point, the valuation may return to the nominal range.
    The FED is in a tight spot right now with slowing economy and worsening inflation from tariffs. Some members suggested 2 rate cuts this year. I would say there may be none as the tariffs war is only starting.
    Edit: Another point is that we may be marching toward stagnation and that can be really bad. Stocks fall, and the FED may have to hike the rates instead.
    https://axios.com/2025/03/28/pce-index-inflation-trump-tariffs
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    Brings to mind the following comment.
    "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose any voters."
    - Donald J. Trump, 01/23/2016
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    He is Putin and Russia's best friend.
    And FD1000, Baseball_Fan, Hondo and Edmond have the temerity to call some of us "Communists".
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    3/28- This, thanks to a lead by @Crash. Edited excerpts from a report by CNN:
    Florida debates lifting some child labor laws to fill jobs vacated by undocumented immigrants
    Florida has been working for years to crack down on employers that hire undocumented immigrants. But that presented a problem for businesses in the state that are desperate for workers to fill low-wage and often undesirable jobs.
    Florida’s Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and the state legislature have a potential solution: children. The state’s legislature on Tuesday advanced a bill that would loosen child labor laws, allowing children as young as 14 years old to work overnight shifts. If the new law is passed, teenagers would be able to work overnight jobs on school days. They are currently prevented from working earlier than 6:30 am or later than 11 pm per state law.
    The bill passed through the Florida Senate’s Commerce and Tourism committee on Tuesday with five votes in favor of the loosened child labor restrictions and four against them. The bill will pass through two other relevant committees before being put to a vote with the full Florida Senate. DeSantis is supportive of the law and has been vocal of cracking down on immigration, echoing President Donald Trump’s rhetoric. However, economists have warned that could backfire, sparking further inflation and labor shortages.
    “Why do we say we need to import foreigners, even import them illegally, when you know, teenagers used to work at these resorts, college students should be able to do this stuff,” DeSantis said last week at a panel discussion with border czar Tom Homan, as first reported by the Tampa Bay Times.
    The state has been easing up on child labor protections for years. Last year, the legislature passed a law allowing home-schooled 16- and 17-year old teens to work any hour of the day.
    The state’s Republican-led legislature on Tuesday will debate the new law, which also includes a number of changes including eliminating working time restrictions on teenagers aged 14 and 15 if they are home-schooled and ending guaranteed meal breaks for 16 and 17 year olds.
    The number of child labor violations in Florida has nearly tripled in recent years, according to US Department of Labor statistics.
    Comment: Does anyone seriously believe that the children of the upper classes will be included in these young workers?
  • TCW MetWest Intermediate Bond Fund reorganization
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1028621/000182912625002146/tcwmetro_497.htm
    TCW METROPOLITAN WEST FUNDS
    TCW MetWest Intermediate Bond Fund (the “Fund”)
    (I Share: MWIIX; M Share: MWIMX)
    Supplement dated March 28, 2025 to the Prospectus and
    the Summary Prospectus, each dated July 29, 2024, as supplemented
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Prospectus and the Summary Prospectus and any previous supplements. It should be retained and read in conjunction with the Prospectus and the Summary Prospectus and any previous supplements.
    On March 27, 2025, the Board of Trustees of the Fund, having determined that a reorganization of the Fund would be in the best interest of the Fund and its shareholders, voted to approve a form of Agreement and Plan of Reorganization to reorganize the Fund with and into TCW Core Plus Bond ETF, a newly-created exchange-traded fund (“ETF”) (the “Acquiring Fund”), which will be a series of TCW ETF Trust (the “Reorganization”).
    Pursuant to applicable law (including the Investment Company Act of 1940) the Reorganization may be implemented without shareholder approval. The Reorganization is expected to occur in June 2025 and is expected to be a tax-free reorganization for U.S. federal income tax purposes. Additional information about the Reorganization will be made available to shareholders in a combined information statement/prospectus prior to the Reorganization date.
    The foregoing is not an offer to sell, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy, shares of the Acquiring Fund, nor is it a solicitation of any proxy. Because the Fund is expected to reorganize into the Acquiring Fund on its reorganization date, you should consider the appropriateness of making a new or subsequent investment in the Fund prior to its reorganization date. You should consider the investment objectives, risks, strategies, fees and expenses of the Acquiring Fund and/or the Fund carefully before investing.
    Prior to the Reorganization date, a combined information statement/prospectus will be included in a registration statement on Form N-14 that will be filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). After the registration statement is filed with the SEC, it may be amended or withdrawn and the combined information statement/prospectus will not be distributed to shareholders unless and until the registration statement becomes effective. Investors are urged to read the materials and any other relevant documents when they become available because they will contain important information about the Reorganization. After the materials are filed, free copies of the materials will be available on the SEC’s web site at www.sec.gov. These materials also will be available at https://www.tcw.com and a paper copy can be obtained at no charge by calling 1-877-829-4768.
    Shareholders should retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • Affordable compact cars could be first to see rising prices from tariffs
    Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The Washington Post:
    The Trump administration’s 25 percent tariffs are likely to lift costs for virtually every car, analysts say, but popular brands like Toyota, Honda and Subaru are among the most vulnerable.
    Car costs, which have already spiked 20 percent since the pandemic, are expected to get another jolt in coming weeks, with the Trump administration’s newest proposed tariffs likely to add thousands of dollars to manufacturers’ sticker prices. It’s unclear exactly how and when prices will start ticking up, but analysts say brands such as Lexus, Toyota, Honda and Subaru are likely to be among the first to face higher costs because they have the smallest stockpiles of cars already in the U.S.
    “We’re going to start seeing prices rise almost immediately,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, who expects an average markup of $6,000 per car. “Some of the most affordable vehicles — compact SUVs, for example — are made outside the country, so they’re going to be the most vulnerable.”
    In addition to lifting car prices, economists say the new tariffs will stifle global production and cut into U.S. economic growth at a time when there are already signs of strain. Consumers, who account for roughly 70 percent of the country’s economy, are beginning to pull back in the face of high costs and elevated interest rates. Further price increases could put a freeze on the sale of motor vehicles and parts, which accounted for about 20 percent of the economy’s growth in late 2024.
    “You take a $40,000 car — now it’s a $45,000 or $50,000 car,” said John Luciano, owner of Street Volkswagen, a dealership in Amarillo, Texas, where roughly 80 percent of cars come from overseas. “There is no way around it, these tariffs are going to be brutal.”
    “Even if you’re thinking, ‘I’ll just go buy the most American car I can think of — a Ford F-150,’ it’s really not that simple,” said Joseph Yoon, consumer insights analyst at the automotive research site Edmunds. “Half the parts on that truck are from Canada or Mexico.” "For a lot of people, it’s the second-biggest expense after housing, and it’s how they get to work”. “Car prices are already the highest they’ve ever been, and now you slap a 25 percent tariff on them — that means customers will stop buying. It’ll be a hit to the economy.”
    At Glassman Automotive Group in Southfield, Michigan, the automotive group’s president said that an additional spike in prices would push car buying further out of reach for many. “It’s going to affect all the brands I sell — Hyundai, Kia, Subaru,” said George Glassman, who employs about 120 people. “No one really knows just yet whether this means you’ll be $2,000 or $3,000 or $7,000 more for a car, but it’s going to create an incredible disruption to the overall industry.”
    “One of the main goals of the tariffs is to reshore production, to bring manufacturing back from overseas,” said Abby Samp, an industry economist at Oxford Economics. “There’s probably some scope for that, but it is going to involve a significant amount of investment, and it will raise costs for U.S. manufacturers and households.”
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    Trump tells car manufacturers NOT to hike car prices from tariffs he imposed. As it stands, car manufacturers stand to loss billions of added cost. Can you envision what it does to their earnings?
    Does the man know his math, let alone economics?
    https://apple.news/Ai1tFLzL6S9m2lSPhDAx3oQ
  • Is US Stock Market Outperformance Sustainable?
    "The US stock market is by far the best one long term."
    I believe US stocks will perform well in the long-term
    and most stock investors should have a healthy allocation to the US.
    This does not necessarily mean the equity portion of their portfolios should be 100% US equities.
    For example, wouldn't it have been beneficial for retirees (presumably withdrawing from portfolios)
    to have foreign stocks in addition to an S&P 500 fund during the "Lost Decade"?
    "So, it boils down to timing and trading."
    No, it really doesn't.
    Numerous studies have indicated excessive trading often leads to lower returns.
    It boils down to creating a sensible investment plan with an asset allocation
    suitable to an investor's risk tolerance/risk capacity,
    and then sticking to the plan (making adjustments as needed based on life changes).
    Some investors may find it helpful to work with a financial advisor to develop this plan.
  • Fido’s “basket” option
    Just short of chaos is how I’ll rate this newfangled “basket” option at Fido.
    Yesterday a dividend was received from one of the 9 CEFs. But it was “reinvested” into the fund (as I’d previously established) separately. In other words, the share total in the “basket” for this fund did not increase. Rather, a new position in the fund for the amount of the dividend received appeared in the more traditional folder at Fidelity (chump change). When I was unable to transfer that amount into the “basket” and merge it with the larger holding I could not. Called Fido for help. I was assured the dividend would “recycle” over night and be combined into the larger position.
    The above failed to materialize after 24 hours. This morning I cancelled the free one month basket enrollment online. According to Fido’s literature, cancelling should have taken all basket holdings out of the basket and placed them into the original account folder with everything else. Did not happen. I tried moving “all” manually. No go. I tried moving some individually and was told by their robot I couldn’t move any out unless I set the allocation back to 100% for all the ones left behind in the basket. ? ?
    I called Fido again today. They tried to help. We got all but 2 funds out of the basket. Two remain with target allocations of 50% each. I am assured no trades will execute as a result of this. I am a told the remaining funds will be captive to the basket until my “free trial” expires in about 25 days from now. (As far as I can tell, there’s no real significance to this.) To see where the account stood, I attempted a test sale from a couple of the former and current basket inhabitants after market open. While all the shares in question could be sold, only the option to sell a specific number of shares surfaced. No way to sell a dollar amount. As if trying to sell or buy across 9 basket funds isn’t difficult enough … it will now be even more difficult with my having to convert dollar sums into shares for each of the 9. Fortunately, this shouldn’t be necessary very often.
    Ahhh - Tread carefully. If your dividends can’t be reinvested back into the Fido basket, over time it will distort the weightings and make managing the basket cumbersome.
    PS - The basket approach from an investment standpoint is working as expected. It’s running 1-2% ahead of the diversified allocation fund the money came out of - albeit most of that a result of 1 fortuitous trade. The overall daily volatility is lower with the basket of CEFs compared to the previous allocation fund. But six weeks is too soon to say. The CEFs are roughly evenly divided between bonds and equities. As of this morning the bond portions are hare having a nice day.
  • Is US Stock Market Outperformance Sustainable?
    @FD1000 who asked "What is your record of forecasting, timing, and trading?"
    Good question. What is yours other than your say so?
  • Is US Stock Market Outperformance Sustainable?
    I have read similar articles over 10 years. One day it would be true, maybe even this year.
    The US stock market is by far the best one long term.
    So, it boils down to timing and trading.
    So, when someone writes an article like that, my question is
    What is your record of forecasting, timing, and trading?
  • Morningstar Prospects List
    @Observant1: Thanks for bringing this to the attention of the forum.
    Morningstar Prospects—a list of up-and-coming or under-the-radar investment strategies that Morningstar Manager Research monitors to potentially bring under full
    coverage
    Which accounts for the inclusion of Fidelity Fund FFIDX, started in 1930.
    Some others (semi-random selection):
    VEGBX Vanguard Emerging Markets Bond
    BFRIX BlackRock Floating Rate Income
    PRCFX TRP Capital Appreciation and Income
    ARHBX Artisan International Explorer
    JEEIX JHancock Infrastructure
    Apparently this is a regularly published list (annually?).
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    Throughout history ruling classes have done whatever it takes to create an underclass equivalent to financial slavery, to perform labor that is ruinous to health and long life. It is no coincidence that the Trump administration is intent upon choking off any type of support for low-income Americans, which will eventually force them into the farm fields to replace the workers who are now being deported.
    3/28- This, thanks to a lead by @Crash. Edited excerpts from a report by CNN:
    Florida debates lifting some child labor laws to fill jobs vacated by undocumented immigrants
    Florida has been working for years to crack down on employers that hire undocumented immigrants. But that presented a problem for businesses in the state that are desperate for workers to fill low-wage and often undesirable jobs.
    Florida’s Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and the state legislature have a potential solution: children. The state’s legislature on Tuesday advanced a bill that would loosen child labor laws, allowing children as young as 14 years old to work overnight shifts. If the new law is passed, teenagers would be able to work overnight jobs on school days. They are currently prevented from working earlier than 6:30 am or later than 11 pm per state law.
    The bill passed through the Florida Senate’s Commerce and Tourism committee on Tuesday with five votes in favor of the loosened child labor restrictions and four against them. The bill will pass through two other relevant committees before being put to a vote with the full Florida Senate. DeSantis is supportive of the law and has been vocal of cracking down on immigration, echoing President Donald Trump’s rhetoric. However, economists have warned that could backfire, sparking further inflation and labor shortages.
    “Why do we say we need to import foreigners, even import them illegally, when you know, teenagers used to work at these resorts, college students should be able to do this stuff,” DeSantis said last week at a panel discussion with border czar Tom Homan, as first reported by the Tampa Bay Times.
    The state has been easing up on child labor protections for years. Last year, the legislature passed a law allowing home-schooled 16- and 17-year old teens to work any hour of the day.
    The state’s Republican-led legislature on Tuesday will debate the new law, which also includes a number of changes including eliminating working time restrictions on teenagers aged 14 and 15 if they are home-schooled and ending guaranteed meal breaks for 16 and 17 year olds.
    The number of child labor violations in Florida has nearly tripled in recent years, according to US Department of Labor statistics.
  • T Rowe Price ETFs in registration
    "T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ-GS: TROW), a global investment management firm, announced today the addition of two new active transparent equity exchange-traded funds (ETF): T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Premium Income ETF (Ticker: TCAL) and T. Rowe Price Hedged Equity ETF (Ticker: THEQ)."

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/t-rowe-price-expands-active-equity-etf-roster-with-two-new-transparent-offerings-302413283.html
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    ++++++ @Anna. He prefers the 1890s (McKinley), and that's where his mob is trying to take us. For real.
  • Is US Stock Market Outperformance Sustainable?
    "The narrative of the past 17 years has been the outperformance of US stocks, with the main explanation
    being US exceptionalism. Our analysis reveals that a statistically insignificant portion of this outperformance
    stemmed from superior earnings growth, with the lion’s share driven by expanding US valuations
    and a strengthening dollar — raising concerns about its sustainability.
    History teaches us that such trends are rarely permanent, with economic regimes and relative valuations
    prone to reversion."

    https://www.morningstar.com/markets/how-sustainable-is-us-exceptionalism