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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    With the inflation being sticky, it is likely the rate will stay higher and longer with fewer cuts in 2025. One pundit mentioned there may be no cut next year and one or two cut in 2026.
    Right, no one can say what will definitely happen, not even the FED--- until they see what's going on. Like Gretsky: chase the puck to where it's GOING to be, next; not where it is at the moment.
    I have the suspicion that inflation will be difficult to bring down much further, unless a recession occurs. In that case, fewer cuts, and stretched over a longer period of time, is what's to be expected. NOT acting upon that, but upon the simple desire to reduce risk and leave a disappointing fund, my recent switch into PRCFX (effective today, when Chucky gets around to it) has brought my equity position down to 42% of total. (Bonds = 48%. The "cash" and "other" stuff is in the hands of the Portfolio Managers of my funds.)
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    With the inflation being sticky, it is likely the rate will stay higher and longer with fewer cuts in 2025. One pundit mentioned there may be no cut next year and one or two cut in 2026.
  • Add Germany NO CONFIDENCE VOTE TODAY....French government toppled, South Korea, martial law lifted
    Since this fall, there has been more political instability from one region to another. We have been pulling back a bit on stocks and increasing the cash position. Don’t like what we are seeing going into 2025 - high US stock valuation, sticky inflation (potentially get worse with tariffs and immigration), and increasing federal debts.
    Edit: taking a page from Warren Buffet, we will be patient.
  • Add Germany NO CONFIDENCE VOTE TODAY....French government toppled, South Korea, martial law lifted
    After one month of being on the edge, a new NO confidence vote today (Dec. 16) has thumped the German government. Europe is having a nasty period, too.
    Article
  • Grandeur Peak fund news and management changes
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1965454/000158064224007585/grandeurpeak_497.htm
    Effective January 1, 2025, the Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund, Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund, Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities Fund, Grandeur Peak Global Reach Fund, Grandeur Peak International Opportunities Fund, and Grandeur Peak International Stalwarts Fund (each a “Fund” and collectively the “Funds”) will reopen to new and existing shareholders through all channels where the Funds are sold...
    See link for other changes.
    CEO letter:
    https://grandeurpeakglobal.com/letters-from-leadership/ceo-letter-from-blake-walker/
  • Do I need to see an occupational hypnotherapist
    @equalizer, will you be covered through employer group health insurance plan until 65 when Medicare kicks in?
    Years ago, mine did only IF I opted for pension, not lump-sum. But plans differ on this.
    Yes, covered by employer till 65,
  • WealthTrack Show
    Saw Josh Brown there. Knows stuff. "Reformed Broker." And "Downtown Josh Brown." I'm instantly focused. Let's see what they all have to say..... Rieder: Focus AWAY from the noise. Dig deeper into substantial, deeper data, then make some judgments about where to put money. Makes sense. Batnick: how to separate Noise from Signal? Rieder: experience, age, learn over time who are the thoughtful CEOs.......Rieder looks at gobs of cash flow statements, too.
    Whoa! Biggest 5 companies size = 407 other companies. That's nuts. And we're only 14 minutes into this...
    Consumers who are driving the economy are senior citizens with no debt!? Raising interest rates just fattened their accounts...... Rieder: Inflation's not gonna fall any further.
    Bonds at 6+ percent next year looks good. Brown: but the real rate would be about half of that.
    Hedging: If you're worried about it, then own less. (Brown.) Echoing Rieder via Kamansky.
    ETF BINC: trying to provide yield above an Index. (I just looked: 24% in derivatives. Not for me.)
    https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/binc/quote
    THAT was a good listen.
  • WealthTrack Show
    @BaluBalu
    shifted FROM prwcx in non- taxable accounts to giroux's new fund.
    I am assuming you are talking about PRCFX, which I do not own. I only own PRWCX of his products.
    You can check the prospectus for both funds to see if he has unlimited flexibility or if he has any prospectus imposed limits on how low or high he can get on equity percentage.
    Interestingly, in the video he mentioned the 56% equity is option adjusted equity percentage. I am not sure how he is playing the options. As of 11/30, looks like the fund is about 60% equity, similar to at 10/31. He must have reduced equities in the last two weeks. As of 11/30, he has -ve number for straight options, which I am guessing is covered calls (but I could be wrong).
    https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/TRAIX?src=USIFundRedirect&adobe_mc_sdid=SDID=4A663477A0B547BE-4283858B3976C96B|MCORGID=D15D15F354F647770A4C98A4@AdobeOrg|TS=1732392621&adobe_mc_ref=https://www.google.com/
    Rick Rieder in the other video mentioned about the fallacy of owning bonds as a hedge against equities in the current environment. His thought is that reduce equities if one thinks equity risk is too much.
    If I were to extend that thought, I have to question the traditional reason why people owned 60/40 portfolios. I think one can still own the 60/40 portfolio but keep the 40 in the shorter end of the curve, which I think how many of the MFO members are playing. I hope that is how David Giroux is playing.
  • Tax Strategy to Fund DAFs
    Well, with either #1 or #2, you get the tax saving, but have $40 in your hands and still have $24 to soft-manage within the DAF.
    Remember, $64K with large unrealized gain does have higher market risk.
    Actually, a 3rd scenario (variation of #2) can be constructed so that you donate some in-kind to DAF and cash the remainder so that the net tax impact is zero. And you end up with the combo of cash in your hands plus a good chunk in DAF to soft-manage.
    Money in the DAF is out of your estate.
    There are also income limitations for DAF contributions,
    "Overall deductions for donations to donor-advised funds are generally limited to 50% of your adjusted gross income (AGI). The limit increases to 60% of AGI for cash gifts, while the limit on donating appreciated non-cash assets held more than one year is 30% of AGI. The IRS permits a carryover for five tax years, should your charitable deduction exceed AGI limits in a given tax year."
    https://www.schwabcharitable.org/non-cash-assets/publicly-traded-securities
  • Tax Strategy to Fund DAFs
    Book gains and fund DAF with those gains
    I'm confused about what you mean by "book gains". Also, it doesn't look like net effect on taxes comes out to zero.
    I'll make this concrete. $40K cost for stock, $64K present value, 15%/22% tax bracket (cap gains/ord. income).
    Scenario 1: Liquidate all, donate $24K gain ($24K deduction)
    cap gains tax = 15% x $24K = $3.6K
    ordinary tax savings = 22% x $24K = $5.28K
    net tax = -$1.68K
    Scenario 2: Donate $24K gain in kind, liquidate rest ($40K)
    cap gains tax = 15% x 40/64 x $24K = $2.25K (less because you don't sell all)
    ordinary tax savings = 22% x $24K = $5.28K
    net tax = -$3.03K
    Donating securities directly usually comes out better than selling and donating proceeds. The tax savings above assume that one gets the full benefit of itemizing the contribution.
    One benefits (gets a higher deduction) only to the extent that itemized deductions exceed the standard deduction. So if a $10K contribution pushes itemized deductions just $4K over the std deduction amount, one gets only $4K in increased deductions, not the full $10K.
    As you noted, the trick is to bundle deductions. That way, instead of losing some deduction value in reaching the std deduction amount each year, one reaches the threshold this year and then keeps adding. DAFs are an excellent vehicle to do this.
  • Do I need to see an occupational hypnotherapist
    ”The Psychology of Trafing Trading is a good book I read many moons ago which I recommend to people who want to understand emotional techniques to deal with trading. This is not the same as investing for which you are better off listening to munger interviews.”
    Right. Trading can be highly profitable as many here demonstrate. As @Equalizer noted, riskier holdings lend themselves to smaller commitment. So the perceived prize from any single holding is probably less than one might expect. Yet the mental work (anguish?) is very intense compared to owning a diversified fund.
    The ‘07-‘09 fiasco was relatively short in comparison to some of the major historical market slides. May have taught some of us the wrong lesson.
    I’d suggest following at least three different market commentators (pundits) with contrasting market outlooks or approaches to investing, including one bearish source. Try to give each some credence and then chart your course..
    The portfolio analyzers may help keep one (ie he, she, it, they, them) on an even knell. If it’s hard to find compelling buys, ratchet up the cash, bond, “other” or income focused part while pulling back a bit on the percentage in stocks. Personally, I reached a high of 48-50% equities 12-18 months ago. Has fallen to 35% today. My unorthodox approach is to swap-out entire portfolio segments (each representing about 17%).Hence, the considerable slug in LCORX (60+% equity) was recently moved into LPXAX which invests primally in short duration bonds and preferred stocks. A year from now, who knows? Might sell it and move back into a more aggressive holding if market valuations change. (My positioning is for a 78 year old and not a recommendation for others.)
    I do not recommend alcohol for any important thought activity like trading. But it probably works for some. I began taking small doses of NAC, a non-prescription health supplement a decade ago after reading a WSJ piece saying it may stop nail biting. And it worked after 40+ years of gnawing. Works by reducing compulsive tendencies. I don’t think it affects my investing. But possibly makes the bumps along the way easier to tolerate.
  • Do I need to see an occupational hypnotherapist
    @equalizer, will you be covered through employer group health insurance plan until 65 when Medicare kicks in?
    Years ago, mine did only IF I opted for pension, not lump-sum. But plans differ on this.
  • Do I need to see an occupational hypnotherapist
    I’m taking “early” retirement next week at 57, so been thinking about risk/reward. Have coworkers who couldn’t tell you what WSJ means, but had retirement 100% in SPY for 30 plus years. Compared to 70/30 ratio, could mean 8% AR vs 11%. Over 33 years
    , could mean at least one million more. Coulda had the brokers yacht and Ferris Bueler’s Ferrari…gonna drink my big Black Cow…
    One of the Ferraris From Ferris Bueller's Day Off Just Sold for $396,000 in 2020. Replica 250 GT.
  • Do I need to see an occupational hypnotherapist
    Yikes. UVXY's been really Ultra the last 4 years: -88%, -45%, -88%, -54% ytd.
    Vix started year ar 13 and is ending near 14. This ETF is probably one of the worst ETFs ever designed if you want to make money.
  • Official Wall Street 2025 Predictions (I mean Guesses) Thread
    ”Stocks Could Gain Another 20% in 2025. Embrace the Bubble.”
    This week’s Barron’s cover story (also linked/ referenced by @Stillers above)
    Here’s the cover art. Maybe title it “Going, Going, Gone!” ?
    image
  • WealthTrack Show
    Didn't like long bonds. Doesn't think next year will be good (as the last 2 years) or bad for stocks as too many variables like tariffs, immigration etc... maybe 15%. Stay on the short side of the yield curve. I don't remember most of it either even though I just watched it. He pushed his ETF BINC with has a pretty good quality bonds but it's only been around since 5/2023. I compared it to RCTIX and PIMIX, it fits in between them but I like RCTIX better.
  • WealthTrack Show
    David G is calling we are in a bubble territory for equities not seen during his career. Evidently, PRWCX is 5% underweight at 56% equities. I am guessing it has to do with the higher discount rate. May be he is betting 10 yr interest rates to stay higher.
    Rick Rieder, blackrock, manages a huge amount of allocation assets. Let us find his latest musings about the market, rather than go just with David G’s rockstar status.
  • WealthTrack Show
    Dec 12th Episode
    Warren Pierson, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Baird Advisors and portfolio manager of the top-rated Baird Aggregate Bond Fund, explains the newfound popularity of bonds.


    Dec 14th Episode:
    Great investor David Giroux has cut way back on stocks and increased bonds in his top performing T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund. He explains why stock prices are scary and bonds look better than most stocks in 2025.